Author Topic: Elections in Europe  (Read 165263 times)

Offline MOZ

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #200 on: March 16, 2017, 07:20:25 am »
Jesse Klaver:

“What I would say to all my leftwing friends in Europe: don’t try to fake the populace,” he said.

“Stand for your principles. Be straight. Be pro-refugee. Be pro-European. We’re gaining momentum in the polls. And I think that’s the message we have to send to Europe. You can stop populism.”

Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #201 on: March 16, 2017, 01:24:02 pm »

Green were the big winners.


The media's superficial fixation on conflict leads them to give lots of free time to fascists. Glad to see the Dutch not play along with the info-circus. 
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Offline Johnny B. Goode

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #202 on: March 21, 2017, 01:29:59 am »
There was a presidential debate in France tonight. Melenchon (old far-left candidate) by far the best, but the only reliable poll (as in, not done via Facebook or Twitter) puts Macron in a great position: he leads in 'most presidential', 'most in tune with my concerns', 'best plan for France', which is odd since I don't think he was particularly great.

Le Pen, though...same old shite. Suppose she consolidated her already loyal fan base, but why even? They weren't going to change their minds anyway. Immigration, EU, islam etc etc, all the buzzwords and very little substance.
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Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #203 on: March 21, 2017, 01:36:14 am »

I wasn't able to watch it live, but I figure the bar for Macron is pretty low. He just had to look presidential.



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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #204 on: March 21, 2017, 04:46:46 pm »
Billionaire Lebanese businessman paid Fillon $50,000 to set up meetings with Putin & Total CEO - Canard Enchaîné:

https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/844225810714234880

 :o

Ouch. Fillon's only going in one direction now.

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Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #205 on: March 21, 2017, 04:49:35 pm »
I wasn't able to watch it live, but I figure the bar for Macron is pretty low. He just had to look presidential.

This. Although I fear the expectations for him, plus the extent of France's long-term problem will be a massive undertaking, which could cause him to be quickly unpopular

Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #206 on: March 21, 2017, 11:39:37 pm »
This. Although I fear the expectations for him, plus the extent of France's long-term problem will be a massive undertaking, which could cause him to be quickly unpopular

The good thing is he has his own party. I'm optimistic that refreshingly for France he could play it up the middle rather than left or right.

He is an investment banker I believe, I wonder if he will try to court the post-Brexit bankers leaving the City for the continent. If you have to get transferred out of London, Paris ain't a bad consolation prize.

 
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Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #207 on: March 22, 2017, 08:47:14 pm »
I believe he did on a trip to London. He's also been courting American  climate change scientists

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #208 on: March 26, 2017, 08:36:51 pm »
What are the latest polls in Germany? Andrew Neill seemed to raise the specticle of a change there.

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #209 on: March 26, 2017, 08:52:04 pm »
The CDU (Merkel's party) won a regional election in Saarland where they usually do well, even though some described it as a bellweather election. I think some of the talk of them losing there was overstated. In fact, they got a greater share of the vote than last time around

Offline stoa

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #210 on: March 26, 2017, 10:26:29 pm »
The only thing to watch in Germany is how the AfD is doing. They are right wing nutters and against the EU. They are around 10% in recent polls and that would probably be a disappointment for them. However, even if they did better they would play no role in terms of who runs the country. It would just be a sign that people are not happy with how things are going. Merkel's CDU and the Social Democrats are neck and neck at around 33% each and they are in a coalition right now.

Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #211 on: March 27, 2017, 12:54:39 am »
The only thing to watch in Germany is how the AfD is doing. They are right wing nutters and against the EU. They are around 10% in recent polls and that would probably be a disappointment for them. However, even if they did better they would play no role in terms of who runs the country. It would just be a sign that people are not happy with how things are going. Merkel's CDU and the Social Democrats are neck and neck at around 33% each and they are in a coalition right now.

I think they got 6% in today's election. Seems minimal, but I am not sure what was expected in a state level election.
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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #212 on: March 28, 2017, 10:39:59 am »
The CDU (Merkel's party) won a regional election in Saarland where they usually do well, even though some described it as a bellweather election. I think some of the talk of them losing there was overstated. In fact, they got a greater share of the vote than last time around




So much for the "Schulz effect", at least in Saarland. I imagine if the sitation was reversed, the media would be full of "Merkel crisis" stories, but once again, reality fails to match the narrative.

Will be interesting to see how the national polls develop in the next few months - particularly if support drifts back to Merkel as people begin to make decisions about the next government.

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #213 on: March 28, 2017, 10:19:59 pm »
Definitely. The CDU have won every state election in Saarland since 1999. The SPD have only ever been the dominant party there between 1985 and 1999. The likelihood of the SPD getting something was always slim. I would also think Merkel's reaction to meeting Trump might have helped a tad

Offline rafathegaffa83

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #214 on: March 28, 2017, 11:00:45 pm »
Fillon's wife has been officially charged with embezzlement of public funds (The Guardian)

Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #215 on: March 28, 2017, 11:26:52 pm »
Fillon's wife has been officially charged with embezzlement of public funds (The Guardian)

Wow. That's big for France.

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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #216 on: March 29, 2017, 09:29:12 am »
Some good news on this grim day.


Since the election of #Trump, vote share of far-right + right-wing populist parties has declined.



https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/846987996729675776


In Germany AFD have dropped to 7% in the last 2 polls:

Forsa: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/846982433845194755
Allensbach: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/846755454764171264

Would be wonderful if they dropped below the 5% threshold. Germany - the bastion of anti-fascism.

Offline ChaChaMooMoo

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #217 on: March 29, 2017, 09:46:56 am »
Interesting read on the AfD after the Saarland elections.
https://www.thelocal.de/20170327/how-saarland-could-show-that-the-far-right-afd-are-finished

Quote
How Saarland could show that the far-right AfD are finished.

On Sunday the Alternative for Germany (AfD) barely scraped into the state parliament in Saarland. One expert told The Local that this could mark the beginning of the end for the upstart party.

Media attention after the vote in Saarland has mainly focused on a disappointing night for the Social Democrats (SPD), who were supposed to be in the middle of a resurgence thanks to their charismatic new leader Martin Schulz.

While Angela Merkel’s CDU won 40.7 percent of the vote, increasing their share by five percent, the SPD only won a 29.6 percent vote share, despite polls suggesting the parties would be neck-and-neck.

An equally intriguing story though, has been the miserable result scored by the AfD which won 6.2 percent of the vote - not far above the 5 percent threshold for making it into German parliaments.

The drab score is in sharp contrast to a string of double-digit results in five state elections throughout 2016, culminating in 14 percent of the vote in the liberal capital Berlin. After the Berlin election, one triumphant leader claimed they were going to become “at least” the third biggest party in the national election.

At their high point in May 2016, the far-right party were also polling at 11 percent in Saarland. A recently as January, they scored 10 percent in an INSA poll for the southwestern state.

'They'll disappear'

But the Saarland result has led the party’s enemies to smell blood.

Horst Seehofer, leader of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), said on Monday that “it could be the case that the AfD don’t make it into the German Bundestag (national parliament)” when the September election comes around.

“I think it’s possible that we can keep the AfD out of the Bundestag,” Thomas Oppermann, faction leader of the SPD in the Bundestag, bullishly claimed.

Manfred Güllner, head of polling company Forsa, told The Local that he “would not rule it out” that the AfD do not make it into the Bundestag.

And he was adamant that if they don't make it over the 5 percent threshold, they'll be history.

“If they don’t get enough votes, they will eventually be dropped out of the state parliaments and disappear,” he said.

Güllner pointed to various other far-right parties, including the NPD in the 1960s and the Republicans in the 1980s who had shock success in their early years, before quickly slipping into irrelevance.

"This always happens to far-right parties in Germany," he said.

'Not a shock'

The Saarland result was "not a complete shock,” Güllner said.

“We conducted two surveys which showed them exactly on six percent leading up to the vote, while on the national level their support has also dropped to between 8 and 9 percent for weeks.”

The pollster pointed to three causes for the AfD result in Saarland, which are also influencing their national slump in support.

He explained that surveys showed that voters do not consider the refugee crisis to be something that is of importance to them. But whereas even in late 2016, extensive media coverage of the issue gave the impression that mainstream politicians were making it central to election campaigns, that perception has changed in recent weeks.

The refugee crisis had "been a magnet for the AfD," as long as it was in the news, he said.

"Secondly, internal party disputes from the national level down to the state level have put voters of them," Güllner said.

In the most high-profile case, Thuringia party leader Björn Höcke criticized how Germany remembers the Holocaust, saying that in schools “German history - is made into something rotten and ridiculous.”

The speech led Josef Schuster, chair of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, to respond that "the AfD have shown their true face with these anti-Semitic and extremely inhumane words."

The controversy had an immediate effect on the party’s poll results and led to a feud between the two national leaders Frauke Petry and Jörg Meuthen. While Petry desperately tried to have Höcke expelled from the party, Meuthen has stuck by him.

“We have seen it before. The radical right-wing parties tear themselves up from the inside,” Güllner said.

Thirdly for Güllner, people who started voting for the AfD out of protest were won over by the newly reinvigorated SPD in Saarland.

“The vast majority of AfD voters are radical right, but they lost between 1 and 1.5 percent of their vote share in this way to the SPD.”

Two more tests

In May there are two further state elections in Germany which will be the focus of national attention in the lead up to the national vote.

Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) both head to the ballot box that month. And for Güllner, the AfD’s chances in NRW are even slimmer than in Saarland.

“Historically, far-right parties have always been weaker in NRW than on the national level. If they got 6 percent in Saarland, a state with a far-right history, I would expect them to do worse there.”

The latest Forsa poll for NRW puts the AfD at 7 percent, while an Infratest dimap poll from March 19th puts them at 9 percent.

‘Respectable result’

The AfD themselves claim that not too much should be read into the vote.

Party co-leader Meuthen said on Monday that the result said nothing about how well the party would do in national election later in the year.

“I don’t see a downward trend,” he claimed, blaming special conditions in the small state, including the strength of the left-wing Die LInke party, for the result.

The AfD in Saarland “scored a respectable result in very difficult circumstances and with a small budget,” he said.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #218 on: March 29, 2017, 10:09:40 am »
Some good news on this grim day.


Since the election of #Trump, vote share of far-right + right-wing populist parties has declined.



https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/846987996729675776


In Germany AFD have dropped to 7% in the last 2 polls:

Forsa: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/846982433845194755
Allensbach: https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/846755454764171264

Would be wonderful if they dropped below the 5% threshold. Germany - the bastion of anti-fascism.

Have the media just whipped up a shitstorm about this on purpose? We are in Europe, the home of the far right. Its always been in this continents history so are all these parties emerging or just part of the furniture?


Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #219 on: March 29, 2017, 03:06:51 pm »

A big public defection in France from the Socialists to Macron on the same day that Fillion's wife gets charged.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/29/france-manuel-valls-backs-emmanuel-macron-presidential-election


 
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Offline mallin9

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #220 on: March 29, 2017, 03:12:12 pm »
We are in Europe, the home of the far right. Its always been in this continents history so are all these parties emerging or just part of the furniture?

As someone interested in educating myself on the subject this is a great question
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Offline Zimagic

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #221 on: March 29, 2017, 03:49:00 pm »
A big public defection in France from the Socialists to Macron on the same day that Fillion's wife gets charged.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/29/france-manuel-valls-backs-emmanuel-macron-presidential-election

What a bitter. He gives up being PM early to focus on his campaign. He could have worked right up until last Saturday (assuming he won the primary) but stepped down months ago. Blames everything that went wrong while he was PM on Holland, calls Hamon a "defector" depite himself doing exactly what Hamon did just at a different date, gets soundly rousted in the PS primaries and says nothing until today.

Instead of calling for party unity and take a huge step forward for the rebirth of the PS, (because Hamon is not winning this election) he's essentially delivering the deathstroke to the party he's been a member of for the last 30 years because the card holders don't see his vision as the way forward. He'll drag the old guard with him to float towards Macron to get a seat at the table (I presume he's been dealing with Macron to this end).


Fillion is toast, no-one on the left has the votes and this is officially a 2 horse race.


Incidently, one of those horses was on France 2 last night.

Marine Le Pen openly accused the station of being pro-Macron, of promulgating anti-FN propaganda, of calling an obvious nazi salute by an FN team-member a "friendly wave" (which prompted said person to call the the presenter a little man covered in shit on Twatter after the show), that Macron was a dupe of Hollande (!?) / banking lobby puppet / media darling, and, of course, of "sensationalising fake news of wrongdoing" in the ongoing EU case of fake jobs (the one where she owes the EU about €300,000, has no intention of paying and has gone on public record as saying that she will ignore the outstanding police summons to appear before them to answer this and other imbezellement charges until after the election. Can you imagine an MP in the UK saying that the Police can just wait the 2 months until he/she is ready to answer a summons? Everyone is aghast here but not enough to force her to actually do anything about it.)

And that was just the last 24h.
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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #222 on: March 29, 2017, 10:01:02 pm »


The second half of your post explains the first.

Essentially he put country over party when endorsing Macron. The Socialists have nominated their Corbyn who like in the UK has no chance of getting elected. Rather than risk the country falling into the far right with Le Pen or Fillon, he's supporting the liberal, centrist, pro-EU candidate. If only more in the UK did the same.....

Offline Red-Soldier

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #223 on: March 29, 2017, 10:03:49 pm »
The second half of your post explains the first.

Essentially he put country over party when endorsing Macron. The Socialists have nominated their Corbyn who like in the UK has no chance of getting elected. Rather than risk the country falling into the far right with Le Pen or Fillon, he's supporting the liberal, centrist, pro-EU candidate. If only more in the UK did the same.....

This

Offline Zimagic

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #224 on: March 30, 2017, 11:12:28 am »
The second half of your post explains the first.

Essentially he put country over party when endorsing Macron. The Socialists have nominated their Corbyn who like in the UK has no chance of getting elected. Rather than risk the country falling into the far right with Le Pen or Fillon, he's supporting the liberal, centrist, pro-EU candidate. If only more in the UK did the same.....

He also added a little kicker to his pro-Macron speech saying he'd be availble to Fillion too should he be elected. From PS candidate to Les Republican toady in 3 months.
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Offline kennedy81

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #225 on: March 30, 2017, 09:43:08 pm »
The second half of your post explains the first.

Essentially he put country over party when endorsing Macron. The Socialists have nominated their Corbyn who like in the UK has no chance of getting elected. Rather than risk the country falling into the far right with Le Pen or Fillon, he's supporting the liberal, centrist, pro-EU candidate. If only more in the UK did the same.....
Yeah. This election is all about beating Le Pen and preferably beating her well. It's the most important European election in many years.
A lot of European leftist parties could do well to take some time out to really have a look at themselves and see where they've been going wrong. Maybe in a few years, a rejuvenated left can then offer themselves as a real alternative and a force for positive change.

Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #226 on: April 3, 2017, 11:34:20 am »
Could be a rogue poll, but Fillon has dropped off a cliff here.



Imagine the nightmare scenario of Le Pen and Melenchon coming in the top 2 though.....  :o

Offline Johnny B. Goode

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #227 on: April 3, 2017, 12:10:27 pm »
Could be a rogue poll, but Fillon has dropped off a cliff here.



Imagine the nightmare scenario of Le Pen and Melenchon coming in the top 2 though.....  :o

Hahah, definitely a rogue poll...though ironically Melenchon is far more likely to snatch votes away from Le Pen than any other major candidate.

It does show, though, how the presidential system has its major downsides. It's a shame that France will never fully benefit from someone like Melenchon, who, though perhaps too radical to be a head of state or government, could be an interesting voice as a minister or a coalition partner. He's a very intelligent man and a fantastic speaker.
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Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #228 on: April 3, 2017, 12:38:32 pm »
Not as rogue a poll as the one being spread from Russia that has Fillion in the lead...
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Offline Johnny B. Goode

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #229 on: April 5, 2017, 12:19:50 am »
Another presidential debate in France tonight, except this time all 11 candidates were present! Poutou stole the show: refused to take a group photo, dressed very casually and absolutely tore into Fillon and Le Pen  :lmao :lmao had absolutely nothing to lose and became the talking point of the debate.

Initial polls saying Fillon did very well - generally tied with Macron as most convincing and joint-second for 'best plan for France' (Melenchon first). Le Pen scoring poorly and Macron holding his own. I couldn't be arsed watching this but apparently he defended himself well and was quite forward as well.
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Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #230 on: April 5, 2017, 01:06:48 am »
Another presidential debate in France tonight, except this time all 11 candidates were present! Poutou stole the show: refused to take a group photo, dressed very casually and absolutely tore into Fillon and Le Pen  :lmao :lmao had absolutely nothing to lose and became the talking point of the debate.

Initial polls saying Fillon did very well - generally tied with Macron as most convincing and joint-second for 'best plan for France' (Melenchon first). Le Pen scoring poorly and Macron holding his own. I couldn't be arsed watching this but apparently he defended himself well and was quite forward as well.

I watched most of the last hour. Melanchon laid into LePen from what I saw. Was trying to expose the real meaning of what she was saying. When I saw Poutou I thought that one of the stage hands was filling in, but he came across very well.
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Offline Zimagic

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #231 on: April 5, 2017, 11:06:43 am »
When I saw Poutou I thought that one of the stage hands was filling in, but he came across very well.

Poutou has the advantage of knowing that he's not getting elected so he has a free hand to say what he wants without worrying about how it will impact his pollings. Seems that cutting through other candidates' bull was the right approach to take.

Melanchon came across as pretty picky if you ask me. His stance should have been taken by one of the interview panel, he ended up wasting a lot of time to get across his point of: "You're talking a lot, but not saying anything". Neutrals won't be swayed by him either way, Le Pen won't lose any voters because of it either. All rather pointless really.

I wonder how Fillon & Le Pen will rebound from the Poutou accusations, it's pretty much all that's being reported today:

Quote
"Fillon: que des histoires et plus on fouille, plus on sent la corruption, la triche (…) Le Pen: on pique dans les caisses publiques. Pour quelqu'un qui est anti-européen, cela ne la dérange pas de piquer de l'argent de l'Europe (…) Quand, nous ouvriers, on est convoqué par la police, on n'a pas d'immunité ouvrière, on y va".
Quote
"Fillon: just scandals and the more you search, the more you feel the corruption, the cheating (...) Le Pen: stealing from the public coffers. For someone who is anti-European, it does not bother her]to steal European money... When we workers are summoned by the police, we have no workers' immunity, we just go."


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Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #232 on: April 5, 2017, 03:44:20 pm »

Those are great quotes.


Macron won. He just had to sit back and let the folks on the left go at LePen. And they did.
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Offline Zimagic

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #233 on: April 11, 2017, 11:03:53 am »
Official campaign videos went up yesterday for the French elections.

Le Pens' looks like an Adele music video, you expect to hear Celine Dion start singing "My Heart will Go On" any second.

Macron & Fillon's are fine, Poutou is a skit on a popular Saturday night talk-show, the other small candidates (including Hamon) look like some photoshopped froth wouldn't go amiss.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2017, 11:07:30 am by Zimagic »
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Offline Trada

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #234 on: April 12, 2017, 08:56:01 pm »
Melenchon is flying up in the polls.

A dramatic seven-point surge by the wildcard leftwing veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon appears to be holding, unexpectedly turning France’s roller-coaster presidential race into a possible four-way contest.

Barely 10 days from the first round of voting on 23 April, the independent centrist Emmanuel Macron and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, both with 23-24% of the vote, are still favourites to go through to the run-off round.

But Mélenchon, an acid-tongued political showman with a radical tax-and-spend platform, is now just five or six points behind. Some recent polls have placed him third, ahead of the scandal-hit centre-right candidate, François Fillon.

Mélenchon’s rise means that with up to a third of voters undecided, no two opinion polls entirely alike and margins of error to account for, it is impossible to say with certainty who of the front four will go head-to-head in the second round.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/12/french-presidential-election-surge-far-left-candidate-melenchon
Don't blame me I voted for Jeremy Corbyn!!

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Offline Libertine

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #235 on: April 12, 2017, 10:01:23 pm »
Melenchon is flying up in the polls.

Putin's dream result if two of his puppets finished top of the poll.

Offline Garrus

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #236 on: April 13, 2017, 10:27:43 am »
Melenchon has a truly unworkable tax policy:

Anyone earnings beyond 33,000 EUR a month to be taxed 100%. He also wants to put an end to nuclear power which accounts for 75% of France's energy supply.

He's preferable to FN of course but he needs to bring some realism into his manifesto.

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #237 on: April 13, 2017, 03:03:48 pm »
Melenchon has a truly unworkable tax policy:

Anyone earnings beyond 33,000 EUR a month to be taxed 100%. He also wants to put an end to nuclear power which accounts for 75% of France's energy supply.

He's preferable to FN of course but he needs to bring some realism into his manifesto.

He's also riding on a strong anti-Europe platform. A lot of people saying it's what's kept him for garnering even more support.
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #238 on: April 13, 2017, 03:10:45 pm »
Melenchon has a truly unworkable tax policy:

Anyone earnings beyond 33,000 EUR a month to be taxed 100%. He also wants to put an end to nuclear power which accounts for 75% of France's energy supply.

He's preferable to FN of course but he needs to bring some realism into his manifesto.

Oh dear. If he wins then will somebody please think of the artists, intellectuals, bankers, scientists and cultural superiors. Who will give them a home next?

Offline Giono

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Re: Elections in Europe - 2017
« Reply #239 on: April 13, 2017, 03:40:30 pm »
Melenchon has a truly unworkable tax policy:

Anyone earnings beyond 33,000 EUR a month to be taxed 100%. He also wants to put an end to nuclear power which accounts for 75% of France's energy supply.

He's preferable to FN of course but he needs to bring some realism into his manifesto.

I wonder where he is getting the support from? In a way I hope that he is competing for the 'F-U Establishment' and 'F-U Europe' protest voters with the FN. That could be a good thing. It could shrink the FN tent. Melanchon went on the attack against LePen in the last debate.



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