Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18  (Read 173939 times)

Offline McrRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #600 on: February 19, 2018, 10:01:28 pm »
Ok, let's try again. Imagine it's a pie chart. The pies at half time next season will be championship club pies.
Haha. Fuckin excellent data analysis right there

Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #601 on: February 20, 2018, 08:48:16 pm »
That 38-point line’s got a bad case of the VARs.  West Ham’ve been stitched right up there.

 :D Ha, fucked up there. Amended in OP.

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #602 on: February 21, 2018, 02:51:49 pm »
City - Arsenal (A) Par 1 (Win: 5, Draw: 3, Lose: 2)
United - Chelsea (H) Par 3 (Win: -7, Draw: -9, Lose: -10)
Liverpool - West Ham (H) Par 3 (Win: -11, Draw: -13, Lose: -14)
Chelsea - United (A) Par 1 (Win: -8, Draw: -10, Lose: -11)
Spurs - Palace (A) Par 3 (Win: -13, Draw: -15, Lose: -16)
Arsenal - City (H) Par 3 (Win: -16, Draw: -18, Lose: -19)

Big week for Spurs/Arsenal/Liverpool who all have must win Par 3's. Chelsea can get clear in 2nd on the APLT and bring United fully down with the pack if they can pull off a win at OT. Anything but a win and Arsenal's already faint hopes of top 4 are done. City are on their procession.
 
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Offline KOTP

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #603 on: February 21, 2018, 03:48:06 pm »
Draw in united v chelsea game looks best to me

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #604 on: February 21, 2018, 04:23:44 pm »
Draw in united v chelsea game looks best to me

When Utd play Chelsea the rules of football should be changed so both teams can loose.
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Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #605 on: February 21, 2018, 08:30:33 pm »
When Utd play Chelsea the rules of football should be changed so both teams can loose be deducted points.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #606 on: February 21, 2018, 11:54:20 pm »
You'd have to be worried if you were a Stoke fan. And got someone to explain the graphs to you.

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Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #607 on: February 22, 2018, 12:06:06 am »
Did anybody read this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564

Basically it saying that nowadays you need 35 points to achieve safety, not 40.

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #608 on: February 22, 2018, 12:16:02 am »
Did anybody read this:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/43049564

Basically it saying that nowadays you need 35 points to achieve safety, not 40.
Not what it says at all.

That graph pretty much confirms that 40 guarantees safety whereas 35 you're looking at a lottery. 40 points has only not been enough 3/21 times since 96 and never since 03. 35 has been enough 3/21 times since 96. The graph shows the possibilty of lowering the value from 40 to maybe 38 but if you want to guarantee you won't be relegated 40 points seems pretty spot on to me. Newcastle got relegated with 37 points 2 years ago.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #609 on: February 22, 2018, 08:43:56 am »
I think you also need to think of it this way... If you are one of the teams that did get relegated, how many would you have needed to have stayed up? That's not the number you ended up with, but one more than the team that finished 17th.

The points a team in the bottom three gains over a season are only impacted on in a very minor way by the team that finishes 17th.  You don't just swap points totals with them.

Therefore, if you want to avoid relegation, you need to consider two scenarios... One in which you are in the bottom three, then one which takes you above the 17th team to avoid relegation.

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #610 on: February 22, 2018, 01:28:29 pm »
Not what it says at all.

That graph pretty much confirms that 40 guarantees safety whereas 35 you're looking at a lottery. 40 points has only not been enough 3/21 times since 96 and never since 03. 35 has been enough 3/21 times since 96. The graph shows the possibilty of lowering the value from 40 to maybe 38 but if you want to guarantee you won't be relegated 40 points seems pretty spot on to me. Newcastle got relegated with 37 points 2 years ago.

Apologies, I read the article a while back, before posting, and obviously mis-remembered!

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #611 on: February 22, 2018, 02:31:31 pm »
It is technically to go down with 60 points.

Suppose every team wins their home games, and they also win their away games against the bottom 2. Then every team would have 60 points with the 17th team going down on goal difference.

Don't suppose that's going to happen very often though.
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Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #612 on: February 22, 2018, 03:28:29 pm »
It is technically to go down with 60 points.

Suppose every team wins their home games, and they also win their away games against the bottom 2. Then every team would have 60 points with the 17th team going down on goal difference.

Don't suppose that's going to happen very often though.

63, surely?
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Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #613 on: February 22, 2018, 04:09:35 pm »
Maybe my maths/logic is wrong - but isn't it 18 teams each win 18 home games and 2 away games?
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Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #614 on: February 22, 2018, 04:15:33 pm »
Here's the formula, maybe Prof can give it the once over?

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Offline SpionBob

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #615 on: February 22, 2018, 04:48:04 pm »
Here's the formula, maybe Prof can give it the once over?


You missed a decimal point out. Everybody knows the answer is 42!
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Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #616 on: February 22, 2018, 07:14:53 pm »
Here's the formula, maybe Prof can give it the once over?



That's a joke right? The formula applying to all teams winning their home games I mean.

Offline BoRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #617 on: February 22, 2018, 07:33:26 pm »
That's a joke right? The formula applying to all teams winning their home games I mean.

No, that's the guaranteed survival formula, and the answer is indeed 42.

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #618 on: February 22, 2018, 07:48:27 pm »
No, that's the guaranteed survival formula, and the answer is indeed 42.

No, it's 61. Douglas Adams told me.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #619 on: February 22, 2018, 10:22:55 pm »
But nobody can remember what the question was in the first place.

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #620 on: February 23, 2018, 03:06:43 am »
Maybe my maths/logic is wrong - but isn't it 18 teams each win 18 home games and 2 away games?

I want to see the games where both sides win.
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #621 on: February 23, 2018, 03:09:03 am »
I want to see the games where both sides win.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #622 on: February 23, 2018, 03:51:53 am »


Haha!! Thats funny POP!!! Haha!!!
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #623 on: February 23, 2018, 07:22:00 am »
I want to see the games where both sides win.
If teams all win their home games, only the away side loses.  Basically he's saying, each team wins their 19 home matches and loses all of their away matches, except the bottom 2 who lose all of their games.  The final table will show 18 teams on 63 points, and two on zero.  A hypothetical possibility but a practical impossibility.  The point was that the theoretical minimum number of points to be safe would be 64 which obviously gets lower as the season moves on and it becomes impossible for 18 teams to get to 63 points.

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #624 on: February 23, 2018, 08:07:42 am »
Damm, I knew my maths was wrong.

It was a complicated formula though.

Now, back to quantum mechanics......
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Offline BoRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #625 on: February 23, 2018, 09:19:29 am »
If teams all win their home games, only the away side loses.  Basically he's saying, each team wins their 19 home matches and loses all of their away matches, except the bottom 2 who lose all of their games.  The final table will show 18 teams on 63 points, and two on zero.  A hypothetical possibility but a practical impossibility.  The point was that the theoretical minimum number of points to be safe would be 64 which obviously gets lower as the season moves on and it becomes impossible for 18 teams to get to 63 points.

Very sloppy for a prof. I want to see the games where both sides lose. ;)

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #626 on: February 23, 2018, 09:30:05 am »
Very sloppy for a prof. I want to see the games where both sides lose. ;)

That's the Chelsea vs Man Utd matches.
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Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #627 on: February 23, 2018, 10:44:03 am »
That's the Chelsea vs Man Utd matches.

Should the fans not also be considered losers.

Speaking theoretically, in a season where every game was a 1-1 draw. Who would win and who would be relegated?

Offline emitime

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #628 on: February 23, 2018, 11:46:34 am »
Should the fans not also be considered losers.

Speaking theoretically, in a season where every game was a 1-1 draw. Who would win and who would be relegated?

According to the rules, there's a play-off in a neutral venue.

So I guess you'd have to have organise some sort of knock-out competition for 20 teams. Realistically the league would have been dissolved long before that point for match fixing.

Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #629 on: February 23, 2018, 01:39:37 pm »
Oh god, it's been too long since a league game.

Offline riismeister

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #630 on: February 23, 2018, 01:54:14 pm »
18 teams winning all their home games and the 2 away games vs the bottom 2 + the bottom 2 losing all their games means 18 teams gets 63 points each and 2 teams gets 0 points each and gives a total of 18*63 + 2*0 = 1134 points. In this scenario no games end in a draw.

A full season has 38 rounds with 10 games each = 380 games. If all games end with a win/loss and no games end in a draw that totals 380*3 = 1140 points in total.

Why isn't the totals the same when supposedly both scenarios should have all 380 games end in a win/loss and no draws?

Edit: Figured it out. The bottom 2 has 2 games against each other unaccounted for.
« Last Edit: February 23, 2018, 01:56:18 pm by riismeister »

Offline MerseysideBrum

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #631 on: February 23, 2018, 02:09:07 pm »
18 teams winning all their home games and the 2 away games vs the bottom 2 + the bottom 2 losing all their games means 18 teams gets 63 points each and 2 teams gets 0 points each and gives a total of 18*63 + 2*0 = 1134 points. In this scenario no games end in a draw.

A full season has 38 rounds with 10 games each = 380 games. If all games end with a win/loss and no games end in a draw that totals 380*3 = 1140 points in total.

Why isn't the totals the same when supposedly both scenarios should have all 380 games end in a win/loss and no draws?

Edit: Figured it out. The bottom 2 has 2 games against each other unaccounted for.
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Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #632 on: February 23, 2018, 09:45:00 pm »
If teams all win their home games, only the away side loses.  Basically he's saying, each team wins their 19 home matches and loses all of their away matches, except the bottom 2 who lose all of their games.  The final table will show 18 teams on 63 points, and two on zero.  A hypothetical possibility but a practical impossibility.  The point was that the theoretical minimum number of points to be safe would be 64 which obviously gets lower as the season moves on and it becomes impossible for 18 teams to get to 63 points.

Yeah, I know  ;)

63, surely?
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #633 on: February 23, 2018, 10:41:14 pm »
Very sloppy for a prof. I want to see the games where both sides lose. ;)
:duh :lmao

Is it too late to claim I was testing you?  :-[

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #634 on: February 24, 2018, 07:29:34 am »
:duh :lmao

Is it too late to claim I was testing you?  :-[

It's the reverse maths mockers.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #635 on: February 24, 2018, 07:30:17 am »

Offline farawayred

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #636 on: February 25, 2018, 07:41:44 pm »
United lucky yet again with a referee's decision, giving them a par instead a -2 to start a free fall. And Palace couldn't hold a few more minutes... This could have been a very good APLT weekend.
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Offline Austin Powers

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #637 on: February 25, 2018, 09:20:38 pm »
So Spurs have gone above us today, is that right?

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #638 on: February 25, 2018, 09:34:34 pm »
Equal.

Offline campioni

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18
« Reply #639 on: February 25, 2018, 09:43:44 pm »
I think Palace away is a par 3 which means Spurs stay on -13. Chelsea drop one to join us on -11.