Topic: The Irish Politics Thread.

[FlashGordon]

Where you based at? Im working in sligo today and the rain is brutal

Southwest, only seems to be getting worse here.

[Zlen]

Haven't really been keeping up with the campaign but the polls look so depressing.

I guess one good thing to come out of this will be that surely the main parties cannot continue to refuse to govern together?

Why do you find polls depressing? Sinn Fein or something else? Surely they can’t be more incompetent than the current lot.

I’ll get voting rights hopefully next year, but I’m pretty certain I won’t be casting a vote for FG or FF any time soon. Public transport is a joke, cost of living is such that I can only dream of buying an apartment and they did nothing to fix either in five years I lived in Ireland. Basically a land for the rich to prosper in and others to live day to day.

[Libertine]

Why do you find polls depressing? Sinn Fein or something else? Surely they can’t be more incompetent than the current lot.

Yeah, pretty much. I grew up with them as apologists for terrorists, so hard to let go of that.

But even so, I don't think their brand of populist nationalism is the answer to anything, and I'm sure they could/will easily top FG/FF on the incompetence front.

Just depressing that there is no proper progressive alternative, or one that will get more than a few % points and seats.

[SouthDerryLaggo]

Why do you find polls depressing? Sinn Fein or something else? Surely they can’t be more incompetent than the current lot.

I’ll get voting rights hopefully next year, but I’m pretty certain I won’t be casting a vote for FG or FF any time soon. Public transport is a joke, cost of living is such that I can only dream of buying an apartment and they did nothing to fix either in five years I lived in Ireland. Basically a land for the rich to prosper in and others to live day to day.

Hope SF poll well. Will be interesting to see what they can do in the south. I fancy them to form government with FF. Leos goose is cooked

[Zlen]

Yeah, pretty much. I grew up with them as apologists for terrorists, so hard to let go of that.

But even so, I don't think their brand of populist nationalism is the answer to anything, and I'm sure they could/will easily top FG/FF on the incompetence front.

Just depressing that there is no proper progressive alternative, or one that will get more than a few % points and seats.

I think there is incredible value in simply punishing government that has failed and I would put this above worrying about alternatives. FG fucked up, vote anyone but them in. New guys fail as well - punish them vigorously. This reaffirms the lesson for whoever forms the government that there is no time to waste and they better come prepared. So my hope is that Leo loses and has a nice intimate cry wank with Murphy and Harris, bloody incompetent, silver-spooned shitbags.

[FlashGordon]

Hope SF poll well. Will be interesting to see what they can do in the south. I fancy them to form government with FF. Leos goose is cooked

Micheal Martin the wet blanket has said he'll never go in to government with Sinn Féin. Best we could hope for is a grand coalition of the left parties and independents, can't see it myself though unfortunately.

[The Last Known Survivor]

Joe.ie / State of Us

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLqNkY83t8W0HPGa9d29yRVAL8jN0cpj0X

David McWilliams - Economics/politics

https://player.fm/series/the-david-mcwilliams-podcast

Irish Times politics podcast:

https://player.fm/series/irish-times-inside-politics

Cheers, will check out the recommendations.

[Libertine]

 

Yikes!

Will be interesting to see how this translates to seats. Based on past performance, SF might struggle to get enough transfers to match FG/FF seats.

Great to see the Greens doing well again.

[FlashGordon]

Exit poll a bit of a clusterfuck, headed for another election?

[kennedy81]

Transfers will be crucial. Interesting few days/weeks ahead.

[Libertine]

Exit poll a bit of a clusterfuck, headed for another election?

Not sure what that would solve. Why would the result be much different?

Time to form coalitions. FG/FF or FF/SF.


@tom_nuttall
Thuringia: here's an election result almost precision-engineered to make government formation impossible.

Ireland: hold my Guinness.

[kennedy81]

Another 5 years of FG/FF ineptitude is my bet.

[FlashGordon]

Not sure what that would solve. Why would the result be much different?

Time to form coalitions. FG/FF or FF/SF.


@tom_nuttall
Thuringia: here's an election result almost precision-engineered to make government formation impossible.

Ireland: hold my Guinness.

Hasn't Martin explicitly ruled out going in to government with SF? Leo sounded more open to the idea.

[bryanod]

Might not be enough seats for FF/SF or FG/SF without few Indies etc. FF/FG switch places in c&s?

Leave the posters up?

[Zlen]

FF and FG to form a coalition and spend the term bickering is my bet.

[FlashGordon]

FF and FG to form a coalition and spend the term bickering is my bet.

Most probably, good result for SF I think, they'll be able to field more candidates after this result next time anyway.

[kennedy81]

Whatever happens, at least we'll actually have an opposition in the Dail.

[bryanod]

Also Ross looks in trouble from early indications which be massive positive if happens

[paulrazor]

Unreal night for sinn Fein.

Thought FF would poll far better than fg

Personally think fg dealt well with Brexit. Coveney and varadkar excellent there. But other issues rightly piss people off

Rent prices, housing prices, homeless, health and policing issues to name a few

[GaryM]

FF and FG to form a coalition and spend the term bickering is my bet.

That would be the best outcome for SF surely.  Watch their popularity grow further if that happens.

Will FF come to regret their stance on not working with SF, considering that SF are by far the most popular party amongst young voters?  They're basically disregarding the first choice of a quarter of the electorate.

[Libertine]

Personally think fg dealt well with Brexit. Coveney and varadkar excellent there. But other issues rightly piss people off

Rent prices, housing prices, homeless, health and policing issues to name a few

That seems fair. And while the government certainly seemed to struggle with the two main issues (housing/health), these are complex issues that countries all over the western world are having major issues with. There won't be any quick or easy solutions from any new government either.

[FlashGordon]

Virgin Media cautiously saying that the exit poll may have in fact under represented the SF vote. Maybe this is as a result of overstating it in previous elections?

Facebook and social media for me was a good bellwether for the SF vote, people I would never have thought being in favour of SF were openly supporting them, the appetite for change was real. Will FF and FG take note?

[bryanod]

If numbers exist, wonder would FF and FG both offer up SF gov and when they inevitably turn down use it to beat them with if have to go back. "Don't want govern, know their policies don't work etc"

Anyway, shots for fucking Shane Ross off. Even if might go bizarrely against grain and end up with 2 FG from 3 seats!

[Ray K]

Martin Brennan has topped the poll in Sligo-Leitrim and is set to take a seat

[Libertine]

Martin Brennan has topped the poll in Sligo-Leitrim and is set to take a seat

And in related life imitating art news....

Dessie Ellis with Sinn Fein supporters break out in a rendition of the rebel song Come Out , Ya Black and Tans. Latest tallies show he will top the poll on #dubnw

https://twitter.com/RTEdubNORTHWEST/status/1226466136499408896

[FlashGordon]

I'm sure that was a bit of a dig at FG. This is a good day for the country man get over it.

[TSC]

Early days but results to date has Sinn Fein leading with 3 seats to FFs 1 after first count. Sinn Fein have just won Dublin west too (Leo Varadkar’s seat and he came second).

[bryanod]

Saw a great suggestions for a FF/SF gov and out SF in charge of housing and healthcare.....be eh interesting.

[TSC]

Saw a great suggestions for a FF/SF gov and out SF in charge of housing and healthcare.....be eh interesting.

And can only imagine proceedings if Sinn Fein is leading Irish Post brexit discussions with the uk Tory government, given the north voted remain.

Early days of course but interesting times may beckon.

[kennedy81]

Eoghan Murphy is an unbearable prick. I hope he's more useful in opposition than he was in government.

[TSC]

So Sinn Fein has won 14 of the first 15 seats declared.  Not aware why they only stood half the amount of candidate compared to the traditional two main parties.  Anyone know why?

Given results so far could have romped home if they’d stood more candidates.

[kennedy81]

So Sinn Fein has won 14 of the first 15 seats declared.  Not aware why they only stood half the amount of candidate compared to the traditional two main parties.  Anyone know why?

Given results so far could have romped home if they’d stood more candidates.

By running only 1 candidate in constituencies, it meant the SF vote wouldn't be split and it gave the SF candidate a much better chance of getting elected.

They were looking to consolidate rather than surge. Mediocre results in the last local elections probably spooked them.

[kennedy81]

This fella goes to funerals of people he doesn't know, and writes his name in the condolence book in different colour ink so it stands out. Words fail me.

https://twitter.com/VirginMediaNews/status/1226565190549942272

[Libertine]

So Sinn Fein has won 14 of the first 15 seats declared.  Not aware why they only stood half the amount of candidate compared to the traditional two main parties.  Anyone know why?

Given results so far could have romped home if they’d stood more candidates.

Similar to the Spring Tide.

They have massive surpluses in some seats being thrown away. Thank god.

[TSC]

By running only 1 candidate in constituencies, it meant the SF vote wouldn't be split and it gave the SF candidate a much better chance of getting elected.

They were looking to consolidate rather than surge. Mediocre results in the last local elections probably spooked them.

Now 18’seats but rte commentary says so far they’ve missed out on 6 extra seats due to not fielding enough candidates and considering their surplus votes.

[kennedy81]

Now 18’seats but rte commentary says so far they’ve missed out on 6 extra seats due to not fielding enough candidates and considering their surplus votes.

Yeah, they obviously weren't expecting such massive winning margins.
Some of those candidates romping home today were tipped to lose their seats only a few weeks back.

[kennedy81]

Got to hand it to FF. They've always been very skilled at getting bums on seats.

[Ray K]

Yeah, they obviously weren't expecting such massive winning margins.
Some of those candidates romping home today were tipped to lose their seats only a few weeks back.

SF candidate in Longford-Westmeath didn't get 600 votes in the Mullingar half of WM in the local elections last May. She got 11,800 votes this time.

[kennedy81]

SF candidate in Longford-Westmeath didn't get 600 votes in the Mullingar half of WM in the local elections last May. She got 11,800 votes this time.

That's wild. People clearly weren't looking closely at candidates, just putting the 1 in the SF box because they wanted a change.

It's been a mad day. It feels like the country has been having an existential and moral crisis. Lots of interesting discussions going on.
It's hard not to feel like the future of Ireland is being shaped here, possibly the future of the whole island. Interesting times. I've been trying to get my thoughts in order and write something on it, but my head is a bit scrambled, so maybe tomorrow.

[King Kenny 7]

That's wild. People clearly weren't looking closely at candidates, just putting the 1 in the SF box because they wanted a change.

From up north we get the feeling that (in the free-state) S.F is the only party on the Working Mans side and both old parties are only interested in middle/upper class, they will split that vote while the minorities will back SF.



A different entity to SF up here.