Author Topic: Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance  (Read 192391 times)

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1120 on: January 31, 2020, 09:50:41 am »
Quite amazing this really..

https://mobile.twitter.com/skysportsstatto/status/1222661378655379457

It’s a touch misleading as it includes short sub appearances, but he still has a remarkable record.

Liverpool have conceded 15 goals in the last 35 league matches in which Gomez appeared, but only eight while he was on the pitch.

In his 25 apps of 90 minutes they conceded eight, with none in the 10 shorter apps (eight of which were no longer than seven minutes).

Offline Knight

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1121 on: January 31, 2020, 10:16:30 am »
Not sure if this has been raised elsewhere - probably has - but StatsBomb, whose analysts think about the game in some really innovative ways, have for the last little while started to publish their data at https://fbref.com/en.

It has a lot of good information - xG, xA and good GK stats, for example, and also some random stuff like nutmegs (did you know Serge Aurier is the second most frequent exponent of the nutmeg this season?), but it doesn't  have quite the full range of back stuff StatsBomb provides to subscribers.

Well worth a look.

Thanks Redcap, although link seems broken? Their podcast is also worth a listen.

Home page here. https://fbref.com/en/
This is excellent. Shame some of the more advanced ball progression stats aren't on there and shot map stuff e.t.c but given it's free you can't complain! Henderson's combined npxg+xa up on the previous 2 seasons but that doesn't scratch the service of doing justice to his form right now. If Keita could maintain a 0.62npxg+xa over 2100+ minutes instead of 210 he'd be the greatest midfielder ever. 

Mo Salah's 18/19 and 19/20 stats are almost identical. Ridiculous consistency.
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 10:26:01 am by Knight »

Offline groove

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1122 on: January 31, 2020, 10:46:53 am »
Not only that but Keita's off the ball stats are high for that position too. Praying he stays fit because we don't really have another player like him. Yes, we're great on the counter and yes, we have two of the best crossers in the world from full-backs, but the value of someone who can play a through ball from midfield, carry the ball directly and contribute in goalscoring regularly whilst still maintaining a high press rate.... it makes your mouth water. He could be so dominant.

Offline faisfais

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1123 on: January 31, 2020, 10:41:00 pm »
FiveThirtyEight (January 31st Projections Year-by-Year)
2016/2017 - Pts Accumulated 46, Pts Projected 77, Chance of Winning League 5%
2017/2018 - Pts Accumulated 50, Pts Projected 79, Chance of Winning League <1%
2018/2019 - Pts Accumulated 61, Pts Projected 93, Chance of Winning League 74%
2019/2020 - Pts Accumulated 70, Pts Projected 103, Chance of Winning League >99%

INSANE how much Liverpool have come leaps and bounds under Klopp.

Offline newterp

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1124 on: January 31, 2020, 10:42:13 pm »
FiveThirtyEight (January 31st Projections Year-by-Year)
2016/2017 - Pts Accumulated 46, Pts Projected 77, Chance of Winning League 5%
2017/2018 - Pts Accumulated 50, Pts Projected 79, Chance of Winning League <1%
2018/2019 - Pts Accumulated 61, Pts Projected 93, Chance of Winning League 74%
2019/2020 - Pts Accumulated 70, Pts Projected 103, Chance of Winning League >99%

INSANE how much Liverpool have come leaps and bounds under Klopp.

This was a pretty excellent tally as well....
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 10:44:31 pm by newterp »

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1125 on: February 1, 2020, 08:15:27 pm »
Liverpool are now the first team to ever take 108 points from a run of 38 league games.

W35 D3 L0 F93 A22
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Offline smutchin

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1126 on: February 2, 2020, 07:37:37 am »
Liverpool are now the first team to ever take 108 points from a run of 38 league games.

W35 D3 L0 F93 A22

Win the next four and it will be up to 112 points. Right now, that feels quite achievable. And it’s hard to imagine that ever being beaten.

Unless we can win the next 21 games for a perfect 114!

Having said all this, no doubt we’ll lose at Norwich. I just know that when we do eventually lose a game it will be somewhere entirely unexpected and daft like that.

Offline Barrow Shaun

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1127 on: February 2, 2020, 07:52:18 am »
Win the next four and it will be up to 112 points. Right now, that feels quite achievable. And it’s hard to imagine that ever being beaten.

Unless we can win the next 21 games for a perfect 114!

Having said all this, no doubt we’ll lose at Norwich. I just know that when we do eventually lose a game it will be somewhere entirely unexpected and daft like that.
  Was worried about Southampton with the same logic. Anyone remember Steve Moran?
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Offline 12C

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1128 on: February 7, 2020, 08:46:53 am »
https://www.givemesport.com/1544765-the-25-best-players-in-the-premier-league-this-season-according-to-stats

For me this article shows how stats can only tell you so much.
Apparently Hendo is 25th on the best player list. Whereas Traore and Richarlison are way above him.
:lmao
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Offline the_red_pill

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1129 on: February 7, 2020, 09:27:20 am »
https://www.givemesport.com/1544765-the-25-best-players-in-the-premier-league-this-season-according-to-stats

For me this article shows how stats can only tell you so much.
Apparently Hendo is 25th on the best player list. Whereas Traore and Richarlison are way above him.
:lmao
Yip. There's a lot of variance that people do not take into account when interpreting stats. For instance- the calibre of opposition, the circumstances(injuries, cup competitions, rotation, form etc), personal and team objectives, managerial/player changes mid-season etc.

Stats would put a side that wins ALL it's matches in the Championship and was kicked out of the cups early- side-by-side with a side that wins all theirs in the Prem- or even higher, if they won more. Stats would say their the best league performer... but your common-sense + interpretation of the stats would say otherwise.
« Last Edit: February 7, 2020, 09:31:00 am by the_red_pill »
"Some listen to understand. Others listen to respond."
"A fool does not delight in understanding, but only in revealing his own mind."
In such a sumptuous festival of shite, I wouldn't be so quick to pick a winner..

But he'd make the shortlist

Offline fredfrop

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1130 on: February 7, 2020, 09:34:08 am »
https://www.givemesport.com/1544765-the-25-best-players-in-the-premier-league-this-season-according-to-stats

For me this article shows how stats can only tell you so much.
Apparently Hendo is 25th on the best player list. Whereas Traore and Richarlison are way above him.
:lmao
Clearly written by someone who doesn't have the faintest fucking clue about statistics. Who you rank top depends on which statistics you use and being clear about which statistics they are, helps others to make a judgement on the validity of your claim.

Not doing so makes you look like a cotton-headed ninny muggins.
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1131 on: February 7, 2020, 10:09:34 am »
https://www.givemesport.com/1544765-the-25-best-players-in-the-premier-league-this-season-according-to-stats

For me this article shows how stats can only tell you so much.
Apparently Hendo is 25th on the best player list. Whereas Traore and Richarlison are way above him.
:lmao

Stats don't tell anything. They are just stats. I'd say the mistake is with the ones who cannot interpret stats for what they are as they assign wrong meanings to them. If a player dribbles more as per stats, then the stat only says he dribbles more. But some people read it as meaning he's a better dribbler (not necessarily) or a even a better player (again not necessarily).

Offline Funky_Gibbons

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1132 on: February 7, 2020, 10:42:33 am »
https://www.givemesport.com/1544765-the-25-best-players-in-the-premier-league-this-season-according-to-stats

For me this article shows how stats can only tell you so much.
Apparently Hendo is 25th on the best player list. Whereas Traore and Richarlison are way above him.
:lmao
The report is made using Whoscored ratings, they once rated Skrtel as the best defender in the Premier League, take with a large pinch of salt.

 
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Offline groove

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1133 on: February 7, 2020, 11:28:49 am »
Whoscored Ratings :D

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1134 on: February 7, 2020, 11:32:25 am »
WhoScored ratings are useful in terms of telling you how 'busy' a player is in terms of their consistent influence on a game imo.

It rewards 'braver' but not necessarily more intelligent players in my view: players who have high shot, dribble, tackle, pass etc frequencies.

What it doesn't tell you with enough accuracy to be fully trusted is how effective that player is, particularly with defenders, where stats are still massively lagging behind offensive stats.

Someone like Mustafi for example will always perform well statistically because he makes a high amount of tackles for a central defender, but unless his error leads to a goal then it won't punish him as much as it should when he inevitably dives in when he shouldn't.

FWIW I don't think that article actually damns Henderson at all. 25th overall in the league for a central midfielder is very good. Only McGinn (a busy dribbler) and Ndidi (a busy tackler) ranked higher. Henderson's tackle rate is much higher than before this season, which is a big reason he's been more effective in the holding role. He was too easy to dribble through in the past.
« Last Edit: February 7, 2020, 11:37:26 am by LallanaInPyjamas »

Offline groove

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1135 on: February 7, 2020, 11:55:15 am »
I think tackle and interception tallies are useful for defensive midfielders because they give you an idea of how good they are at stopping opposite progression in dangerous areas. Lucas and Maschernao always had league-best tallies for us.

Dribbling tallies are useful for attacking players because they at least give you a vague indication of how good they are at progressing the ball for your team, somewhat.

Other than that I don't think there's many cases where I'm interested in seeing raw tallies for any action? Like a shot tally on its own tells me very little about the quality of the shot. Raw passing tallies aren't telling me how many players those passes are taking out the game. Keita and your average PL midfielder might have the same number of pass volumes but you can bet your bottom dollar that Keita's passes on average take out more players per pass.

Whoscored mashes a lot of these useless tallies together to get their ratings. So yeah, it really just tells you players who are doing a lot of stuff as opposed to players who are doing a lot of useful stuff.

Offline Barrow Shaun

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1136 on: February 7, 2020, 12:14:39 pm »
Aye, stats can be silly.

I started questioning 'assists' after Origi's miskick to Salah v (I forget) at the Kop end. There was a similar one for Walcott's winner at Watford recently too, where the lad just scuffed it, barely connected.
Also, some keepers just twat the ball forward in hope and can get an assist whereas Allison's brilliant ball to Salah v Man U was obviously meant. (Still get a buzz when I think of the crowd's reaction to that goal.)

Anyway, in my opinion, when it comes to stats on assists at least, I just shrug them off until someone has 5/6+ then you can be pretty sure they are directly contributing to goals.

Ok, nerd moment done.
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Offline royhendo

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1137 on: March 5, 2020, 07:10:55 pm »
I’m finding the last week’s narrative volte face funny.

We’ve gone from hailing certain qualities to deriding them.

Podcast content has gone from saying Alisson is nigh on unstoppable (Norwich in particular) and that the back four allow certain shots because we know we can rely on the shot stopping to saying Van Dijk has become casual or complacent.

We make a rare concession at a corner, then we make another, then we look sleepy and knock off and allow an easy goal from open play and get angry enough to win playing pretty much our standard game to put things right.

Watford play a blinder and, minus Henderson, we have a collective off night. Three games of football, all of which see us facing deep lying defences - it’s nothing new - it’s just been well executed and we’ve been lethargic for whatever reason, and somehow unable to play routine passes or get routine chances buried.

Winning games at a canter has become “worrying trends”. Or to rephrase, journalists need clicks.
https://www.footballwhispers.com/blog/whats-happened-to-liverpool

I dunno - we need to just present numbers and do it consistently I think. The same commentators reaching wildly different conclusions off the same underlying numbers smacks of agenda.


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Offline Shaved Crossbar

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1138 on: March 5, 2020, 08:04:09 pm »
I disagree with ‘somehow unable to bury routine chances’

We have not had routine chances in the last few games. Sadio had a decent one against Chelsea but apart from that we’ve created jack shit in our 3 defeats.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1139 on: March 5, 2020, 08:27:06 pm »

Winning games at a canter has become “worrying trends”. Or to rephrase, journalists need clicks.
https://www.footballwhispers.com/blog/whats-happened-to-liverpool


I hadn't read that previously, but it is clearly flawed as you say. Basing your assessment on three games when one was a completely out of character horror show doesn't help. E.g. the shots on target average is down basically because we only had 1 at Watford. Six at Norwich and seven at West Ham was absolutely fine. Two of the three games being away will affect things too.

The Watford game is being used to make the rest look worse than they were, we clearly deserved to beat both Norwich and West Ham.
« Last Edit: March 5, 2020, 08:55:06 pm by BassTunedToRed »

Offline royhendo

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1140 on: March 6, 2020, 11:35:38 am »
I disagree with ‘somehow unable to bury routine chances’

We have not had routine chances in the last few games. Sadio had a decent one against Chelsea but apart from that we’ve created jack shit in our 3 defeats.

In the rest of the Chelsea game even?

I thought we played really well in the bulk of the Atletico game. The build up was phenomenal but we didn't stick it when the final ball was needed.

Edit - said so at the time...

On a positive note, against that side away, the way we worked the ball into space for long spells while under pressure and against a compact set up was straight up phenomenal. Add to that the fact that they were penned in for a long long time...

They got a lucky break for their goal and sat deep - why wouldn't they? But in spite of that we did very well. There'll be a lot of 'analysis' around the game but in that context, faced with that referee, we set out with a very ambitious set up and approach and stuck to it until the tack changed. Mane coming off changed things but he didn't want to take that risk. Our delivery once in decent positions to deliver was maybe what let us down more than our ability to engineer the right situations.

Confidence and tempo and personnel and post winter break recovery would maybe change the numbers - I guess time will tell. :)
« Last Edit: March 6, 2020, 11:44:27 am by royhendo »
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline royhendo

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1141 on: March 6, 2020, 11:36:33 am »
I hadn't read that previously, but it is clearly flawed as you say. Basing your assessment on three games when one was a completely out of character horror show doesn't help. E.g. the shots on target average is down basically because we only had 1 at Watford. Six at Norwich and seven at West Ham was absolutely fine. Two of the three games being away will affect things too.

The Watford game is being used to make the rest look worse than they were, we clearly deserved to beat both Norwich and West Ham.

That's how it looks to me too. You and Dan are the best at this IMO.
"Word of the day is 'philodox' (17th century): one who is in love with their own opinion, and who consequently believes that everyone else should share it."  @susie_dent on twitter - https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1419683653844668422

Offline McrRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1142 on: March 7, 2020, 07:58:33 am »
Have to agree [emoji1489]

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1143 on: March 7, 2020, 08:20:26 am »
That's how it looks to me too. You and Dan are the best at this IMO.

Too kind, sir. Thank you.

Offline Medellin

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1144 on: June 2, 2020, 11:48:42 am »
No surprise which teams lead the way..

Support the team,Trust & Believe.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1145 on: June 2, 2020, 11:54:27 am »
No surprise which teams lead the way..



Where's that from, out of interest?

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Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1148 on: June 5, 2020, 12:18:44 am »
Apologies if this isn’t the right place, but, is there a way to see goals/assists for a player broken down by position?

Context, I’m watching highlights of our greatest games over the past couple of years (too many to count), and I feel like when Origi starts centrally he has a big impact compared to out wide. Interested if there was a way to objectively measure that?

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1149 on: June 5, 2020, 05:46:17 pm »
Apologies if this isn’t the right place, but, is there a way to see goals/assists for a player broken down by position?

Context, I’m watching highlights of our greatest games over the past couple of years (too many to count), and I feel like when Origi starts centrally he has a big impact compared to out wide. Interested if there was a way to objectively measure that?

You can see his career total by position here https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/divock-origi/leistungsdaten/spieler/148368/plus/0?saison=ges and change the seasons (Filter by season) to add up the Liverpool years if you want to.

Or if you want to get nerdy, you can select 'Position' here and see his expected goals and assists by position https://understat.com/player/484

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1150 on: July 2, 2020, 12:20:39 am »
2.2 points per game required for the 101 points record, we can afford to:
draw 3
lose 2
lose 1 and draw 2

Basically just need top 4 performance from here on. If we beat City I think it's a banker.

To break the European top flight record we need to win every game, that sits with Celtic at 106 points.
:D

Offline John C

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1151 on: April 11, 2021, 10:22:14 am »
Is there anywhere (or can anyone) produce stats to compare Mo's either dribbles past other players or take-ones, with either the last 2 seasons or with other players in the league.

I know his goal return is phenomenally consistent, but I'd love to see other stats.

Offline Chris~

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1152 on: April 11, 2021, 10:46:17 am »
Is there anywhere (or can anyone) produce stats to compare Mo's either dribbles past other players or take-ones, with either the last 2 seasons or with other players in the league.

I know his goal return is phenomenally consistent, but I'd love to see other stats.
For comparing Salah's dribbling to past seasons scroll to posession and toggle to per 90 stats

https://fbref.com/en/players/e342ad68/Mohamed-Salah

Can use this to compare him with other players

https://fbref.com/en/stathead/player_comparison.cgi?show_form=1&request=1&sum=0&comp_type=by_type&dom_lg=1&player_id1=e342ad68&p1yrfrom=2020-2021&player_id2=a1d5bd30&p2yrfrom=2020-2021&player_id3=49fe9070&p3yrfrom=2020-2021&player_id4=b400bde0&p4yrfrom=2020-2021&player_id5=c691bfe2&p5yrfrom=2020-2021&player_id6=5ceba7fc&p6yrfrom=2020-2021
« Last Edit: April 11, 2021, 10:48:14 am by Chris~ »

Offline Knight

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1153 on: April 11, 2021, 11:02:24 am »
We’re not getting the ball to him in the box enough (which those links show) which I expect is the main reason for his lower dribbling numbers. It’s in and around the box that he comes alive re dribbling the ball.

Offline John C

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1154 on: April 11, 2021, 06:13:45 pm »
Thanks Chris mate, I'll have a good look at all that during the week (after the golf). It's something I've been really interested in this season.

Nice one.

Offline Dave McCoy

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1155 on: May 9, 2021, 11:48:09 pm »
Thought this was interesting in reading the Athletic article with Ox about how he uses stats:


Offline Dave McCoy

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1156 on: May 20, 2021, 09:10:25 pm »
One of the more interesting things I've read lately, hopefully it's not the start of a trend:

https://spacespacespaceletter.com/barnsley-is-doing-moneyball-right-and-its-ruining-soccer/

Offline Dave McCoy

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1157 on: May 28, 2021, 07:44:03 pm »
Tuchel in an interview explaining xG:


Offline groove

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1158 on: May 28, 2021, 10:00:41 pm »
Funny looking at xG this season that it was actually City's worst season for creating chances under Guardiola, but they still won the league fairly comfortably because everyone else was kind of shit.

Offline rocco

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #1159 on: May 29, 2021, 09:58:55 am »
With either Fabinho or Henderson playing our average goals scored and average points attained more than doubled when either Hendo or our Fab  present.