Topic: Elections in Europe

[Johnny Foreigner]

Denmark tonight. Exit polls are very close, but small lead to danish labour/red coalition. could be change of prime minister

[rafathegaffa83]

Massive protests in Prague calling for Babis to resign. Largest in thirty years

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48737467?

[CornerFlag]

Ukrainian snap election results have the incumbent taking a larger margin in the exit poll.

I'm not sure who would actually know, but has there been much on the Crimea situation in the build-up to this?  It seems really forgotten about (its annexation by Russia) but I thought it would still play a large part in the results but not much of the coverage I've seen has mentioned it much, if at all.

[rafathegaffa83]

BBC Breaking News@BBCBreaking
Poland's conservative president Andrzej Duda wins re-election, beating liberal Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski in close race
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-53385021?

[TSC]

BBC Breaking News@BBCBreaking
Poland's conservative president Andrzej Duda wins re-election, beating liberal Warsaw mayor Trzaskowski in close race
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-europe-53385021?

Another right wing populist figure? 

[rafathegaffa83]

Another right wing populist figure? 

Yes. The usual story  Duda won in villages and eastern parts of the country, while Trzaskowski won in cities/towns and stretches of western Poland. There was also a generational split with Duda getting older voters

[TSC]

Yes. The usual story  Duda won in villages and eastern parts of the country, while Trzaskowski won in cities/towns and stretches of western Poland. There was also a generational split with Duda getting older voters

No doubt another challenge for the EU incoming.

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

I think the main positive out of the Polish presidential elections is the way the vote coalesced behind the more liberal candidate in the second run off. It was nearly enough. Sadly, that vote gets splintered again in the general election. The people that vote for PiS believe the conspiracies fed to them. They want to believe them really.

[ShakaHislop]

Moldova election: Pro-EU candidate Maia Sandu wins presidency

Opposition candidate Maia Sandu has won Moldova's presidential election after a run-off vote against the incumbent Igor Dodon, preliminary results show.

With almost all the ballots counted, Ms Sandu has won 57.7% of the vote compared to Mr Dodon's 42.2%.

Ms Sandu, 48, is a former World Bank economist who favours closer ties with the European Union. Mr Dodon, meanwhile, is openly backed by Russia.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54942847

[Riquende]

Moldova election: Pro-EU candidate Maia Sandu wins presidency

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54942847

Based on nothing more than a consistently strong Eurovision showing, I'm a big fan of Moldova.

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

"Today we witnessed an extraordinary mobilization of Moldovans. Despite the manipulation, against distrust of institutions, citizens went to the polls, despite a dirty campaign, people went to the polls in large numbers. People went to the polls because they care. People want to be respected. People want the power to offer them solutions to their problems."

"Many thanks to the people who went to the polls and waited in huge queues to vote. We bow before you. The diaspora has mobilized. Our people have shown that no matter how far they go, they have shown that they care about their relatives, they care about their home. We regret that many have been waiting a long time to vote."


"I thank all the people who went to the polls, the people who believed in the power of their vote. We will all unite, we need a united society. This is the first thing we need to do after the election. The first task is to unite society around common goals. We all want to live well, here, at home, to have a state that protects us, to work for people, not for thieves. We need a developed economy that offers opportunities here, at home, so that our people are not forced to leave their loved ones. We have this common agenda and we must all work to achieve these goals."


https://www.news.ro/externe/update-alegeri-prezidentiale-r-moldova-maia-sandu-cistigatoare-nivel-national-diferenta-fata-igor-dodon-peste-15-procente-diaspora-votat-proportie-peste-90-suta-maia-sandu-rezultate-preliminare-1922402115002020112119595363

[ShakaHislop]

Jozsef Szajer: Hungary MEP quits after allegedly fleeing gay orgy

An MEP from Hungary's ruling party, which is hostile to LGBT rights, has quit after he was caught attending what Belgian media describe as a gay sex party in Brussels on Friday.

Jozsef Szajer, a top member of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party, was stopped by police after reports of a house party violating lockdown rules.

Prosecutors say he was found with drugs as he tried to flee the gathering, reportedly shinning down a drainpipe.

He apologised for "a personal failing".

On Friday he had pleaded parliamentary immunity but he is now under investigation - for both non-compliance with measures relating to the Covid-19 pandemic and violation of drug laws.

The European Parliament said the immunity rule only extended to an MEP's official duties, not to their private life.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55145989

[rafathegaffa83]

Laschet elected leader of CDU. Likely Merkel successor
https://amp.dw.com/en/armin-laschet-angela-merkel-loyalist-is-new-cdu-leader/a-56239045?

[Libertine]

Final results of this weeks Dutch election are in. On the surface, little changes - the government will largely stay the same (with maybe some different minor coalition partners) despite the mess they have made on the pandemic, but these seems to be a common theme everywhere (aside from the US).

A very good result for the liberal D66 though, although they end up with 4 fewer seats that predicted by the exit poll. Their influence in the government should now be enhanced, leading to more progressive policies on things like climate change and (hopefully) European fiscal matters. Also great to see the pan-European Volt party pick up 3 seats for the first time, despite the success of D66 (as they are likely targeting the same types of voters).

Bad night for the Greens and left wing parties though. There is obviously a great deal of fragmentation due to the voting system and political culture - 17 (SEVENTEEN) parties are represented in parliament - but this seems particularly prevalent on the left. The Greens reluctance to enter government after the last election does not appear to have helped them. Would be good if they or Labour decided to get involved this time and drag the coalition further to the left.

[Libertine]

The big one today - federal elections in Germany. So much media coverage for the election in Europe's largest economy 

The post-Merkel era begins (or rather will begin once a new coalition is formed, which could take months). The SPD have made a remarkable recovery from the wilderness in recent months, driven by popularity of their leader Olaf Scholz and the distinct lack of popularity of his oppenent - Merkel's successor as CDU leader Armin Laschet.







It's likely there will need to be a first 3 party coalition for the first time since the 1950s. Possible options:

 - Traffic light - SPD, Greens and FDP (liberals), if the Greens and FDP can agree on economic/tax issues
 - Jamaica - CDU/CSU, Greens and FDP, would need the CDU to perform much better than they are polling, FDP would likely favour this option, Greens not so much
 - Red, red, green - including Linke (the Communist Party successors and Putin puppets), unlikely there would be agreement on foreign policy issues.
 - Kenya (CDU/CSU, SPD, Greens) or Germany (CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP), but unlikely I think the CDU and SPD want to remain in government together any longer.



Good English-language follows for the results and aftermath:
 - Jeremy Cliffe (New Statesman) https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe
 - Tom Nuttall (Economist) https://twitter.com/tom_nuttall

[Libertine]

Two exit polls showing a very tight race and perhaps a better result for the CDU than the polls might have suggested. A long night and long few months ahead.

[Linudden]

If those exit polls are accurate it wouldn't surprise me with a CDU/FDP/Green coalition to be honest. I sort of expected a red-green majority due to a Merkel fatigue backlash but instead it would be the FDP holding the balance of power.

Regardless, I think the CDU would benefit from a few years in opposition. Paradoxically, that probably also goes for the SPD. With such a fragile parliament neither should be willing to accept any terms for just holding the executive.

[Libertine]

If those exit polls are accurate it wouldn't surprise me with a CDU/FDP/Green coalition to be honest. I sort of expected a red-green majority due to a Merkel fatigue backlash but instead it would be the FDP holding the balance of power.

Regardless, I think the CDU would benefit from a few years in opposition. Paradoxically, that probably also goes for the SPD. With such a fragile parliament neither should be willing to accept any terms for just holding the executive.

You'd expect the FDP would want Jamaica and the Greens would want Traffic Light (assuming the two can ever work together).

I wonder what chance we eventually end up with another Groko come early 2022? Hopefully not.

Time for the parties to compromise and be grown ups (unlike their counterparts in the Netherlands).

[TSC]

Europe’s first female majority parliament elected in Iceland.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-58698490

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Results from half hour ago.



SPD and Union (CDU+CSU) are locked up head to head with Greens coming behind them in third. The business friendly FDP and anti-immigrant AfD are further behind. The left extreme, Linke, are also poised to be a part of the govt having crossed the 5% threshhold.

It looks likely that the Union+SPD+Greens will be in drivers seat paving way for the first ever 3 party coallation.

These are the likely combination, and their nicknames.

[TSC]

Sky news now reporting the centre left SPD has a narrow lead.  Now picked up by wider media

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/german-election-exit-poll-shows-spd-in-prime-position-to-lead-in-future-german-government/ar-AAOPZ0p

[Libertine]

Traditional parties hanging in there due to support from older voters. Under 30s loving the Greens and Liberals - the future seems bright for Germany.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1442183678235451396

[TSC]

Far right (AFD) vote dropped and it won’t form any part of the new government it’s been reported. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/far-right-afd-sees-silver-lining-weak-result-merkel-is-out-2021-09-26/

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Far right (AFD) vote dropped and it won’t form any part of the new government it’s been reported. 

To be honest, nobody even considered forming a govt with the AfD from the beginning.
All of them were quite direct with that since 2016 or 2017 itself. Even today, there was an interview with all the chancellor candidates and they were quite open and brutal with not wanting to do anything with them.



As things stand,

SPD + FDP + Green looks strong
Union + FDP + Green also looks possible

FDP and Green will be a part of the new government given that Union and SPD don't want to form another grand coalition. They were quite clear about this since last year itself. Even in 2017, they came together only after options were considered. It would be a couple of weeks as FDP and greens will be tempted with portfolios and agendas before they decide which party to support.

I must add that FDP, dont prefer a left leaning government. Its either center or right swaying. So it will be interesting how they will work with the SPD and greens.

[stoa]

Far right (AFD) vote dropped and it won’t form any part of the new government it’s been reported. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/far-right-afd-sees-silver-lining-weak-result-merkel-is-out-2021-09-26/

They were never in a position to be part of a government, because none of the other parties want to work with them. Rightly so I might add...

[TSC]

They were never in a position to be part of a government, because none of the other parties want to work with them. Rightly so I might add...

Yep done a quick Google and neo-nazis or links to so no surprise other parties won’t touch them

[Libertine]

Final results:



Only two coalitions now possible (assuming no Groko) - Traffic Light or Jamaica. Greens and FDP to govern with either SPD or CDU/CSU.


Very good election for Greens and SPD. Disastrous for CDU. And great to see both extremes losing votes.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

I was praying for the Linke to drop below 5%.

There is hope after all.

[B0151?]

Good news for SPD and Greens hopefully they can get something functional together

[thaddeus]

Probably a silly question but what are the primary reasons why the CDU have lost nearly 100 seats from 2017?  From the outside looking in Germany seems to be well run and Merkel has incredible approval ratings (which, to some extent, you'd think would reflect from and onto her party).

I assume there's more going on that just Merkel stepping down.

[Elmo!]

Probably a silly question but what are the primary reasons why the CDU have lost nearly 100 seats from 2017?  From the outside looking in Germany seems to be well run and Merkel has incredible approval ratings (which, to some extent, you'd think would reflect from and onto her party).

I assume there's more going on that just Merkel stepping down.

From reading Reddit (not exactly representative), one of the complaints I saw was their abysmal effort on what they called "Digitlization". Basically Germany is lagging way behind the rest of Europe with some of the slowest and most expensive internet, with very little progress made.

[RainbowFlick]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/berlin-social-democrats-b1927568.html

This is great from Berlin. Inevitably I can imagine this not being acted on, or delayed indefinitely.

[stoa]

Part of it is that a lot of people maybe just wanted a change after more than a decade of the CDU being the main party with the chancellor. However, a huge issue was that the whole search for a successor to Merkel was a complete clusterfuck. Merkel herself brought Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in a position to be the next CDU-candidate for chancellor when she pushed for her to become the new leader of the party in 2018. She was also supposed to be the main-candidate in this election, but she decided to step down last year. Then they started looking for a new candidate and that turned into a clusterfuck. A lot of people wanted it to be Markus Söder who's premier-minister in Bavaria and leader of the CSU (the sister party of the CDU. The CSU is only a thing in Bavaria and they are more or less independent from the CDU, but whenever there are German-wide elections they work together as the "Union"). The problem was that there were also people who had an issue with the smaller sister-party having the main candidate. Söder would have liked to be the candidate, but at the same time, he wasn't really pushing for it knowing full well that a.) he has a nice job there in Bavaria and b.) that not everyone would welcome it, if he became the candidate. So, Armin Laschet was chosen, which itself ended up being a clusterfuck as he seems to be a complete idiot.

I haven't followed things in detail, but they had TV discussions where he looked the worst of all the main-party candidates. After the flooding earlier this year, he went to visit the worst hit places and there were TV cameras everywhere he was at a press conference, where someone else was talking, and he was seen in the background laughing and joking. It wasn't the only mis-step by him, but it was one of the worst. There were loads of smaller ones ending with him being pictured on Sunday at a polling place where he was shown throwing his vote into a box and on the pictures you could clearly see that he had folded his ballot paper in the wrong way which made it possible to see what parties he voted for and which meant that his vote was invalid. There was also loads of stuff and quotes that were brought up from his past and they all showed that he's just an idiot. That's why a lot of people didn't want to vote for him. Especially, as SPD's main-man Olaf Scholz apparently had a pretty flawless campaign and did and said the right things.

[Libertine]

Probably a silly question but what are the primary reasons why the CDU have lost nearly 100 seats from 2017?  From the outside looking in Germany seems to be well run and Merkel has incredible approval ratings (which, to some extent, you'd think would reflect from and onto her party).

I assume there's more going on that just Merkel stepping down.

Paradoxically, I think it's because Merkel was/is so popular, that Laschet suffered so much in comparison, and he was such a poor candidate in any case.

Plus the CDU have been in government for many years now. There's probably a feeling that if they can't have the best thing about a CDU government (Merkel), then it's time for a change.

[stoa]

I was praying for the Linke to drop below 5%.

There is hope after all.

Why? I don't really see the big issue with them. Yes, they are very left leaning, but at the same time, they've also long become more of a main stream party without really any extreme views (at least from what I can tell). Most of the stuff they're proposing seems to be quite sensible, which in turn has lead to some people criticising that they aren't left-wing enough and saying that that's the reason why they lost in this election.

[Libertine]

Why? I don't really see the big issue with them. Yes, they are very left leaning, but at the same time, they've also long become more of a main stream party without really any extreme views (at least from what I can tell). Most of the stuff they're proposing seems to be quite sensible, which in turn has lead to some people criticising that they aren't left-wing enough and saying that that's the reason why they lost in this election.

Most of the issues (and impediments to any coalition) seem to be based on their foreign policy views though.

[thaddeus]

Part of it is that a lot of people maybe just wanted a change after more than a decade of the CDU being the main party with the chancellor. However, a huge issue was that the whole search for a successor to Merkel was a complete clusterfuck. Merkel herself brought Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in a position to be the next CDU-candidate for chancellor when she pushed for her to become the new leader of the party in 2018. She was also supposed to be the main-candidate in this election, but she decided to step down last year. Then they started looking for a new candidate and that turned into a clusterfuck. A lot of people wanted it to be Markus Söder who's premier-minister in Bavaria and leader of the CSU (the sister party of the CDU. The CSU is only a thing in Bavaria and they are more or less independent from the CDU, but whenever there are German-wide elections they work together as the "Union"). The problem was that there were also people who had an issue with the smaller sister-party having the main candidate. Söder would have liked to be the candidate, but at the same time, he wasn't really pushing for it knowing full well that a.) he has a nice job there in Bavaria and b.) that not everyone would welcome it, if he became the candidate. So, Armin Laschet was chosen, which itself ended up being a clusterfuck as he seems to be a complete idiot.

I haven't followed things in detail, but they had TV discussions where he looked the worst of all the main-party candidates. After the flooding earlier this year, he went to visit the worst hit places and there were TV cameras everywhere he was at a press conference, where someone else was talking, and he was seen in the background laughing and joking. It wasn't the only mis-step by him, but it was one of the worst. There were loads of smaller ones ending with him being pictured on Sunday at a polling place where he was shown throwing his vote into a box and on the pictures you could clearly see that he had folded his ballot paper in the wrong way which made it possible to see what parties he voted for and which meant that his vote was invalid. There was also loads of stuff and quotes that were brought up from his past and they all showed that he's just an idiot. That's why a lot of people didn't want to vote for him. Especially, as SPD's main-man Olaf Scholz apparently had a pretty flawless campaign and did and said the right things.

Thanks very much Stoa.  Really informative!

Well done to the Germans for not voting for an apparent idiot because he was wearing the rosette of the person they voted for last time.

[B0151?]

Probably a silly question but what are the primary reasons why the CDU have lost nearly 100 seats from 2017?  From the outside looking in Germany seems to be well run and Merkel has incredible approval ratings (which, to some extent, you'd think would reflect from and onto her party).

I assume there's more going on that just Merkel stepping down.

In addition to the difference in popularity between SDPs leader and Merkel's successor, don't forget that the SDP have also been a part of the administration so they also benefit from the fact that people are pretty happy with things and that a vote for them isn't a great departure from the status quo or too big a risk

[Yorkykopite]

Very pleased with that. Germany always needs a strong SPD.

[Linudden]

Very pleased with that. Germany always needs a strong SPD.

Wouldn't say the SPD is particularly strong, it's like taking a victory lap over 28.2 % for the Swedish sister party in 2018 just because some polls had them at 24 % a couple of months before. The Social Democratic government has then been forced to implement neo-liberal economics to have the Swedish 'FDP' approve of them remaining in power after their vote share in the industrial interior fell apart completely.

In a counter-CDU election with an unfavourable candidate to oppose they still didn't crack 26 % after all. They're at the complete whims of the FDP who will drive that government from the backseat if they can even form one. The only reason their result looks good is because the 2017 result was absolutely abysmal beyond all belief. It's obviously a different electoral system but if Labour got 26 % in Britain it'd be a complete and utter disaster for the party.