Recent Posts

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by mullyred94 on Today at 03:17:39 pm »

For Liverpool, he's 12.66 goals under what he should be in the Premier League. We've just heard that 3500 minutes is enough of a sample size to be sure about something, so I think that tells us he's considerably below average at finishing.

Yet two seasons prior in UCL he out basically perfomed his XG didnt he?

I mean last season he scored 4 goals out of a xg of 5 - I would say thats fine would you?

Prior season at Benfica he scored 6 goals out of an xg of 3. - Doubled his XG expectation ?

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General Football and Sport / Re: Arsenal: Top of the divers league

« Last post by Yorkykopite on Today at 03:17:16 pm »

Why does Smith-Rowe never get a look-in? He looked to be the real thing a couple of seasons ago. After Odegaard he looks to me to be Arsenal's creative player. I know he had an injury but Arteta does seem hostile to playing him. Will he leave at the end of the season? Is he on a long contract? Should Liverpool consider buying him?

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by LallanaInPyjamas on Today at 03:17:08 pm »

No it doesn't. That's completely ridiculous.

Finishing is by nature noisy and subject to variance whereas underlying performance level is much more stable.

I.e. Lewandowski can put up 0.85xG one season and score 1.10 goals, then the next season put up 0.85xG and score 0.60 goals.

Whereas we wouldn't see Lewandowski putting up 0.85xG one season and then 0.5xG the season after.

Do you seriously expect Nunez to outperform his xG to those levels?

If using data that tells us he should have 12 more goals than he has scored to conclude that he is below average at finishing, I don't see the point of using this data whatsoever.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by Mr Dilkington on Today at 03:16:22 pm »

For Liverpool, he's 12.66 goals under what he should be in the Premier League. We've just heard that 3500 minutes is enough of a sample size to be sure about something, so I think that tells us he's considerably below average at finishing.

No it doesn't. That's completely ridiculous.

Finishing is by nature noisy and subject to variance whereas underlying performance level is much more stable.

I.e. Lewandowski can put up 0.85xG one season and score 1.10 goals, then the next season put up 0.85xG and score 0.60 goals.

Whereas we wouldn't see Lewandowski putting up 0.85xG one season and then 0.5xG the season after.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by LallanaInPyjamas on Today at 03:14:02 pm »

In 17k minutes across his entire career he is on 0.60 goals from 0.57xG. Basically an average finisher so far.

For Liverpool, he's 12.66 goals under what he should be in the Premier League. We've just heard that 3500 minutes is enough of a sample size to be sure about something, so I think that tells us he's considerably below average at finishing.

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General Football and Sport / Re: LIVERPOOL TRANSFER THREAD - 2023 (FSG posts = get muted) - No Mbappé

« Last post by amir87 on Today at 03:12:53 pm »

If we can’t find a system that gets Trent in the team then there’s something wrong with the system. He’s one of our most talented players.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by Mr Dilkington on Today at 03:11:46 pm »

My question would be why you and others are using one side of the data (xG / xA) to assert that there is enough of a sample size to be certain about something, while wilfully ignoring or disregarding the other side of the data (xG conversion) to be certain that it will turn around through better luck and variance.

That's the part that doesn't make sense to me.

In 17k minutes across his entire career he is on 0.60 goals from 0.57xG. Basically an average finisher so far.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by mullyred94 on Today at 03:11:22 pm »

Do assists matter yet?

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General Football and Sport / Re: LIVERPOOL TRANSFER THREAD - 2023 (FSG posts = get muted) - No Mbappé

« Last post by skipper757 on Today at 03:11:21 pm »

If Trent wasn't a local lad and future captain, I'd say he is absolutely and completely tailor made for playing right back at Real Madrid.  Himself, Mbappe, Davies and a top CB, and that's the dream team right there.

He wouldn't though would he? Surely not?

I imagine it’d be tempting for him to go and try and experience something new, but long-term I still feel he’d want to continue to make his mark here.  Hopefully the contract negotiations go well.

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Liverpool FC Forum / Re: Darwin Núñez (Darwin Gabriel Núñez Ribeiro)

« Last post by JackWard33 on Today at 03:10:54 pm »

I know you don't like hearing my opinion that not all minutes are created equal. So I don't expect we'll find common ground here when I say that the Europa league, league cup and fa cup minutes are of less value to me for much the same reasons as the benfica minutes.

Not worthless data, but less valuable data. As always I'm just here for the strongest most robust representation we can get. League minutes, champions league minutes. These are what I value in terms of analysis. The others are noise.

Do we still have enough minutes?

Yes .. 4000 of those minutes
How do you want to use them to evaluate him? Goals scored?