Remember the chat about whether we've suffered a number of blows this season from conceding goals that have a low XG rating (so worldies and flukes basically)? Dan K has continued on that theme ongoing and you can see our issue is that while our performance level is broadly the same as Man City, we've either had bad luck in relation to those goals, or we've not managed the risk in relation to the build up to those goals, or a bit of both.
This is the numbers while leading by 1 goal in games this season. We've conceded 7, Manchester City have conceded 0.
He's consistently excellent is Dan, for me at least. https://twitter.com/DanKennett/with_replies
Thanks, this is really interesting. I went back and tried to think which goals these would have been and came up with the list below:
Brentford (away) - goal 2 - XGA 0.50
Brentford (away) - goal 3 - XGA 0.45
Man City (home) - goal 1 - XGA 0.06
Man City (home) - goal 2 - XGA 0.05
Brighton (home) - goal 2 - XGA 0.50
Spurs (away) - goal 2 - XGA 0.31
Chelsea (away) - goal 2 - XGA 0.31
I was surprised that the Foden goal was such a low XGA, but other than that one and De Bruyne's deflected shot the rest of the goals all have reasonably high XGA and so we can't really complain about the actual goals being 'unlucky'. However digging into them a bit more we have an Alisson mistake for the Spurs goal and some pin ball action for both of the Brentford goals, so maybe there was an element of luck about them, but certainly nothing over the top.
I'd actually say that the 'unlucky' goals we've conceded have been while we were drawing or winning by more than 2 goals, such as the first goals for Brighton, West Ham, and Chelsea (x2), but all still lead to dropped points.
If I look at City at 1-0 I come up with these big chances which didn't lead to goals:
Leicester (away) - Lookman on 75 mins (0.49)
Man Utd (away) - Greenwood on 25 mins (0.53)
Villa (away) - Chukwuemeka on 74 mins (0.41)
I think we can all agree that City were beating Utd that day regardless of whether Greenwood scores, so really there are only 2 games where they could have dropped points in that sample.
With City I would point more to their refereeing luck against Wolves and Arsenal (whereas we had awful luck against West Ham and Spurs), and also some missed chances from teams when the game was level (such as Arsenal at 0-1).
But either way, these small differences are massive in a tight title race, especially one where every dropped point counts. Just on my finger in the air 'luck meter' I'd definitely say that we would be between -4 and -6 on luck points whereas City are somewhere between +2 and +4. That's basically the actual gap between the two teams in the table.