« on: April 10, 2022, 02:41:06 pm »
Referee: Anthony Taylor. Assistants: Gary Beswick, Adam Nunn. Fourth official: Andre Marriner. VAR: Paul Tierney. Assistant VAR: Timothy Wood.
(I thought April fools day was last week?)
SO it's finally here...
It's been there on the horizon for some time now, as we've gradually chased down their 14 point lead reducing it to just 1 point. There's a lot of hyperbole thrown around these days when big sides clash, but I think it's fair to say league games don't get much bigger than this.
I'm someone who rarely calls games "must win" when there's enough games left to make a difference, but in this case it's definitely a can't lose, and probably given their remaining games on paper are easier, I think it's fair to say for us it is pretty much a must win.
At the very least it's the only chance we have to directly affect their results and put the title back into our hands.
We've come through our final game ahead of this with a pretty good performance and excellent result in Benfica, and thankfully assuming Fabinho is ok, it looks like we have no injury worries. Although we lost control more through sloppiness than anything else by the time we regained the two goal advantage we were back in the ascendancy and had been able to show our strength and perhaps our probable team for Sunday with the substitutions we made.
Recent record at the Etihad
On the surface our recent record at the Etihad doesn't really inspire much confidence. After a 4-1 win in Klopp's first Liverpool game there, when we were treated to the type of performance and football we now see on a regular basis, we've lost 3 and drawn 2 there. There was obviously the 2-1 Champions League win as well in that time - that was quite enjoyable 
.
However, if you look a little closer at those league games it's perhaps not as bad as it seems.
The first defeat was the game Mane was sent off for the high foot against Ederson, and the most recent was days after we'd been confirmed as champions, so definite excuses can be made for those. The other defeat was the 2-1 game in 18/19 where Kompany probably should have walked for the challenge on Salah at 0-0 and we were about 11.7mm shy of what would have been an opening goal at the time as well.
So I think you could say we might just be due the rub of the green there - fingers crossed we get it this Sunday or at least don't suffer some of these decisions or near misses that have proved so costly in recent seasons. NOTE: this was written before the officials for Sunday had been announced. I now think we can do away with the notion we may get any luck that’s going and will clearly have to win the hard way.
Aside from needing a little bit more luck than we've had there in the past, what other differences are there?
I'd like to think that we now have the stronger squad, which is something we haven't had in the past. We've had a comparable first 11, but you can certainly make a case that theirs isn't as good as it was in 18/19 and ours has improved and strengthened. So, should be simple really, if only it worked like that.
And two of those additions may not even start for us!
I thought I'd consider some of the key positions and areas which may help decide the game, so first things first the goalies
Alisson vs Ederson - Perhaps I'm a little biased but can anyone convince me that Ederson is better than Alisson at anything accept perhaps with the ball at his feet. That's not because Alisson isn't really good at picking a pass - he's got assists FFS, but I think he has a few more errors in him as well with his passing and I do think Ederson is a little more composed. But thats it, end of Ederson's plus points over AB. I'm not sure Ederson has improved greatly since joining City, he's a good keeper very adept with his feet and a decent shot stopper. Alisson is in a different class for me, not just to Ederson but to almost every other keeper currently playing the game. He is the reason more than even the pace of Van Dijk, Gomez etc that we can afford to play the high line, because he is rarely found wanting on the occasions he is left one on one. While he does have the odd error (name me a great goalie who didn't), he wins and saves us far more points than he ever costs us. he's the safest pair of hands we've had since Clemence, unflashy but 99% of the time he's in the right place at the right time and makes difficult saves look easy.
Onto the Defence
Our likely back four will be the almost impenetrable Trent, Matip, VVD & Robertson combination. Proven over a number of seasons and all have been at or close to the top of their games recently. I wouldn't swap any one of them for anyone in City's back four no matter who's fit for them. It seems like they may be without Ruben Dias who is without doubt their strongest centre back, but due to the way they play and the way many other teams play against them they don't concede very often anyway, which means they have a better defensive record than us in terms of goals conceded. Clearly this shows they are no mugs and have quality across the four however if they need to play Ake, he should be an obvious weak link to exploit.
Midfield
This is probably the only area where they may be stronger than us. I'm not sure who they'll play but De Bruyne & Rodri are shoe-ins, as are Thiago & Fabinho for us. I expect Henderson to be our third choice in the middle (although Naby is certainly in great form). I'd guess for them it'll be Bernado Silva, although he was up front v Atletico and Gundogan has started their last two games, so who knows what Guardiola may do, he has been known to try and be a little too clever at times.
I'm not sure if it will be a key area or not, but we certainly need our 3 to be at their best and in particular if Thiago is at his best he could make the difference in a tight game by providing us with the type of through balls Jota made the most of versus Arsenal recently.
Attack
This is the one area I'm not sure who we'll go with. Salah despite seeming out of sorts of late is a cert for me and I expect Mane too given he was withdrawn after 60 mins against Benfica, with the other place most likely to go to Bobby or Jota, with Diaz ready to make an impact from the bench if needed. Really not sure which way Klopp will go. Bobby knits things together better than the others and offers more in perhaps being able to disrupt their midfield a bit more. But Jota has now scored so many important goals in tight games for us he might just get the nod.
For them I expect Mahrez, Foden and probably Sterling, although he may go with Grealish. Both our attacks are seriously dangerous, and are all potential match winners, so I'm hoping ours have their shooting boots on, and if Salah can regain the form from the game in October I think that'll be enough this time.
Bench
We've both got talent available to change things if plan A isn't working, but as I said before I think we have more options now, with the aforementioned attackers who don't make the first 11 and the likes of Keita, Jones, Elliott who can all create a bit of magic from the middle if required. While they will still have some quality on the bench I actually think the drop off is more obvious in an attacking sense nowadays.
I'm sure if they've got someone writing a preview of this game from their point of view they'll see things differently, but I don't see any reason we shouldn't approach this game with confidence and belief based on our respective squads - we just need the majority to be at their best and if they're not, those who come on to make the impact they're capable of and I think we can get the result we so badly crave.
What else could be crucial?
I think they're still 100% when scoring first, so clearly we don't want to get into a position where we have to chase the game as that really plays into their hands, especially as they probably feel they can get away with a draw. However, two of their three league defeats have been at home so they are beatable there and they can get frustrated and run out of ideas when they can't find the breakthrough. So, if we're getting into the last 20 mins or so and it's still 0-0 and they've missed some chances it may just play into our hands - just try not to get too nervous...
How will it end?
I'm not sure whether to expect a 100 mph start or both teams being a little cagey given how much there is at stake. I think this one may possibly be a tighter affair than some of our games which are usually quite open and attacking given how we both play. It's a really tough one to try and make a prediction for. I do think we are the better team now, but they are at home and have the advantage that a draw is more in their favour. Maybe we'll strike at the death when they're trying to play out for the draw who knows. What I do know is win lose or draw we should all be grateful for what this team is giving us at the moment and where they're taking us.
But mostly JUST FUCKING WIN RED BIG MEN
« Last Edit: April 10, 2022, 05:38:34 pm by Rush 82 »
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“Happiness can be found in the darkest of times, if one only remembers to turn on the light.”
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