Author Topic: Why we are where we are  (Read 40914 times)

Offline Peter McGurk

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Why we are where we are
« on: December 30, 2015, 10:24:04 pm »
The is no plan.. I guess the story has come out of this artical ...

http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/opinion-manchester-united-should-think-9312689

Current Ground developments in England can be found here

http://www.footballgroundguide.com/about-the-author/developments.html

Of course, this opinion piece is just that. And the opinion is wrong.

Manchester United's own opinion on the matter is that they won't fill an enlarged stadium consistently enough to justify the cost, which would include bridging the existing railway behind the south stand. Just to be clear, they do not think they will fill a bigger stadium. And it will cost too much.

The stadium must earn more than it costs. These are basic economics of club football ground development and rather long in the tooth now but... http://petermcgurk.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/part-2-show-me-money.html.

Albeit you will know, all rather different for world cups wherever they are. Infrastructure gets thrown at world cups for lots of reasons. In 'rational' economies, usually to help with regeneration (is an excuse). Most likely it's a statement of one sort or another (often political) and at a national government level.

Spending £200-300m on club stadium infrastructure is not in that league and it's unnecessary. No one needs to open railway lines or build tram lines to make a bigger stadium work at Anfield. Fact of the matter is, a stadium bigger than 60k or thereabouts is not viable as it stands even without spending yet more on transport.

Another 'fact', the most viable capacity at Anfield would be to add just corporate seats and hospitality. The highest return for the least expense. About 49,000 to 51,000 would be ideal in that case. In a money-is-everything world that was the real 'sweet spot' and the club is already going past that. The club knows that it is already spending more than is absolutely necessary.

True, the club might make more out of a bigger capacity but where that's not certain, it will definitely cost proportionately more. And the higher the cost, the greater the risk of not making more than the club spends. If that happens, the money must come from whatever existing income there is at the time with consequently less available on players, for example. Those who want a mega-stadium should be careful what they wish for.


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« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 08:18:20 am by Peter McGurk »

Offline andy07

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #1 on: December 31, 2015, 01:31:56 am »
Interesting comments about United's quoted attendances in the MEN article.   Fact is that United rarely get more than 70000 through the turnstiles, generally Liverpool and City games, with most league crowds being around 65000. Still a big turnout, but food for thought when considering another 18000 seats.   
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Offline The Lord Admiral

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #2 on: December 31, 2015, 09:20:25 am »
That is interesting about the attendance.

What would be interesting is an idea of what percentage of attendees come from a local radius, and then some economic data on that in terms of average salary etc.

I'm still of the view that the traditional football demographic isn't going to matches any more because of the cost and so there is an unexplored population there, that could be contributing to the coffers, and indeed the match atmosphere.

The question is does the cost of expanding the ground preclude getting them in. It seems the clubs view is that it does, but I do wonder if that is being looked at over 5 years, rather than 10 or even 20.

I don't think that will change under these owners though. You'll need either someone who plans on owning the club for 20 years rather than a US style 'investor' or someone with a huge vision where money isn't an object. So while a stadium 'must earn more than it costs' (nothing wrong with your logic Peter) it does depend on the time frame over which you are talking. Over 15,20,25 years? It's probably doable.

I do think there's a third option that hasn't really been explored though, and that's some kind of share issue to fans. again that probably doesn't interest the owners we have now, why split your equity, but it might interest the other two types of owners I mention above.

Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #3 on: December 31, 2015, 10:58:52 am »
That is interesting about the attendance.

What would be interesting is an idea of what percentage of attendees come from a local radius, and then some economic data on that in terms of average salary etc.

I'm still of the view that the traditional football demographic isn't going to matches any more because of the cost and so there is an unexplored population there, that could be contributing to the coffers, and indeed the match atmosphere.

The question is does the cost of expanding the ground preclude getting them in. It seems the clubs view is that it does, but I do wonder if that is being looked at over 5 years, rather than 10 or even 20.

I don't think that will change under these owners though. You'll need either someone who plans on owning the club for 20 years rather than a US style 'investor' or someone with a huge vision where money isn't an object. So while a stadium 'must earn more than it costs' (nothing wrong with your logic Peter) it does depend on the time frame over which you are talking. Over 15,20,25 years? It's probably doable.

I do think there's a third option that hasn't really been explored though, and that's some kind of share issue to fans. again that probably doesn't interest the owners we have now, why split your equity, but it might interest the other two types of owners I mention above.

Time frame makes little difference. A 30 year loan costs more than a 5 year loan. And a five year loan means little to spare for other things (players). A share issue would add little. A one-off injection of funds at the cost of future investment. It's the work of desperation for a financially-sick club. And who would be interested in selling off a bit of what you own when you don't have to and there's no benefit to themselves or the club.

Cheaper tickets don't pay for newer or bigger stadiums. 'Vision' doesn't pay the bills. Clubs with this so-called 'Vision' are about other things with little to do with football and more to do with plastic flags and 'reputation cleansing'.

We've done the distance debate and seen well-founded research. Most people are local (within 10 miles) with some clubs attracting a larger travelling support who can afford the occasional travel and the tickets. None of which helps anyone create a core of regular match-going, one-'family', stand-together-with-your-mates, noise-making crowd, week after week.

The answer to that conundrum is standing. Cheaper tickets for a minimum outlay. The problem with that is the weakening of demand for the higher price tickets needed to pay for new stands.


That said and while the ground used to be the main source of income - no longer. The stadium always has to pay for itself and the investment and risks are big but we are getting to a point beyond that, where it doesn't matter so much if it makes money any more. TV is the bigger fish to fry. On that basis, standing may be just around the corner. If the demand for a 60k seating price stadium is proven in practice and that cost is covered - standing at selected games on the kop becomes a no-brainer.
« Last Edit: December 31, 2015, 03:41:06 pm by Peter McGurk »

Offline readybreck

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #4 on: December 31, 2015, 11:25:03 am »
Its simply about being realistic, we are not year on trophy laden, nor do we have an endless pot of money. Yes we have a great fanbase but cast your mind back to the early/ mid 90s whe we STILL had standing and cheaper pricing yet couldnt fill the stadium regularly especially during the cup games or so called lesser sides. I would absolutely hate to be looking at empty seats during a game. we are going about it the right way in my opinion.

Offline smithy

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2015, 11:29:07 am »
Went to uni in Manchester between 2004 and 2008. They used to regularly give tickets to the student unions and local schools for free when they couldn't sell all the seats. City also did something similar.

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2015, 12:14:28 pm »
Thanks Peter. The other important aspect that get's overlooked or is simply not appreciated is that there is no economy of scale with stadium construction. 

The advocates of a super-stadium for Anfield (60,000+ and up) often talk about building bigger (and from scratch) to provide cheap seats for young, local fans. The simple reality is that the cost per seat increases the bigger you go.

The best way to ensure young fans are excluded for the foreseeable future would be to build a brand new 80,000 seater stadium.
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Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2015, 03:52:24 pm »
Went to uni in Manchester between 2004 and 2008. They used to regularly give tickets to the student unions and local schools for free when they couldn't sell all the seats. City also did something similar.

And they have some of the cheapest season tickets. All well and good for a bought and paid-for stadium that probably costs less than the club is paying for one stand at Anfield. Hopefully we can look forward to a similar situation one fine day.


Thanks Peter. The other important aspect that get's overlooked or is simply not appreciated is that there is no economy of scale with stadium construction. 

The advocates of a super-stadium for Anfield (60,000+ and up) often talk about building bigger (and from scratch) to provide cheap seats for young, local fans. The simple reality is that the cost per seat increases the bigger you go.

The best way to ensure young fans are excluded for the foreseeable future would be to build a brand new 80,000 seater stadium.

I've always said that and it is true (for a new stadium). But there's a wrinkle to it in the Main Stand and that is, a few hundred or a thousand more on top of that big box of hospitality is probably neither here nor there on a cost per seat basis. The structure doesn't get that much heavier.

However the Main Stand is longer than I'd expected and that has to effect the cost of that bloody great fat truss on top. When all's said and done I guess the numbers were better than keeping it all lower and building the expensive corners. As a stand-alone stand it's no doubt at the optimum.

Still the logic stands, the bigger you build it, the less likely are cheaper seats.
« Last Edit: January 4, 2016, 10:48:30 pm by Peter McGurk »

Offline Callaghan.

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #8 on: February 1, 2016, 10:27:30 am »
Interesting comments about United's quoted attendances in the MEN article.   Fact is that United rarely get more than 70000 through the turnstiles, generally Liverpool and City games, with most league crowds being around 65000. Still a big turnout, but food for thought when considering another 18000 seats.

How do you know this? Surely all we've got to go on is the official attendances?

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #9 on: February 1, 2016, 10:33:17 am »
How do you know this? Surely all we've got to go on is the official attendances?

Police release real numbers.


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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #11 on: February 1, 2016, 11:07:02 am »
I suppose in Anfield's case it harkens back to a nostalgia of just being able to turn up on match day, buy a ticket and walk into the ground. 
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Offline redprodigal

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #12 on: February 9, 2016, 03:46:41 pm »
Police release real numbers.

I heard these figures aren't right mate and if you look at the redsaway link and look at the comments down below you'll see a link to our game there when there was only supposed to be just under 70000. You can see that there is no way 5000 empty seats there so no idea how the GMP release those figures.

Offline The Lord Admiral

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #13 on: February 15, 2016, 02:21:37 pm »

That said and while the ground used to be the main source of income - no longer. The stadium always has to pay for itself and the investment and risks are big but we are getting to a point beyond that, where it doesn't matter so much if it makes money any more. TV is the bigger fish to fry. On that basis, standing may be just around the corner. If the demand for a 60k seating price stadium is proven in practice and that cost is covered - standing at selected games on the kop becomes a no-brainer.

I've been thinking about this thread a bit recently in light of the walkout and subsequent change in direction from the owners. It also co-incided with reading that the lowest placed club next season will get 99m in 'prize' money.

The extent of that kind of tv money, and increased commercial deals, and the owners apparent eagerness to work with fans seems to beg the same question again in altered circumstances. There seems to be a greater focus on access for youngsters, access for locals.

It does seem to be gradually pointing towards some form of standing again, and given that figure, there might be money to invest in further expansion with a bit of a push from fans so spend the money there, rather than spunking it on agents or pocketing it.

Which brings us back to the transport infrastructure issues does it not?!




Offline doy1es1

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2016, 08:48:47 am »
The best solution for genuine supporters would be for there to be a standing area in the Kop. While this maybe a very emotive subject to raise, standing at most grounds has never been an issue. It no secret that the atmosphere at Anfield has died and what a shame when we have such a passionate manager. You only have to take a look at his homeland where most German grounds have standing areas and look at the support their fans give to their teams. The Augsburg fans put us to shame on Thursday night. They came to Anfield hoping to experience something special and look what they got.
Imagine if we had a standing area, more supporters could fit into the current ground, tickets in that area could be offered at a lower price and the atmosphere would likely improve 10-fold. (It can't get any worse).
If anyone doubts what I am saying then take a look at any of the Bundesliga games next week.

Offline Lucaspool FC

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2016, 09:19:11 am »
Found this on another forum. What do you think is he right?

"Virtually every topic of discussion comes back to the same thing: future proofing. The fans - who will continue to use the stadium long after FSG have gone - must demand that anything they do on the stadium has provision for future proofing built in.

In my opinion the 5 future proofing issues the club must address during phases 1 and 2 are as follows:
1. re-route WBR to enable a Mega Kop to be built
2. rebuild the ARE (rather than extend) to deliver the optimum stand and pitch length
3. start purchasing houses behind the Centenary to enable future expansion
4. revisit the train station proposal on the Canada Dock line with all stakeholders (including Everton)
5. Ensure new stand designs allow for retractable roof/pitch in the future

Liverpool FC must have a grand vision and a plan to get there."

Offline macca007

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2016, 10:06:27 am »
Found this on another forum. What do you think is he right?

"Virtually every topic of discussion comes back to the same thing: future proofing. The fans - who will continue to use the stadium long after FSG have gone - must demand that anything they do on the stadium has provision for future proofing built in.

In my opinion the 5 future proofing issues the club must address during phases 1 and 2 are as follows:
1. re-route WBR to enable a Mega Kop to be built
2. rebuild the ARE (rather than extend) to deliver the optimum stand and pitch length
3. start purchasing houses behind the Centenary to enable future expansion
4. revisit the train station proposal on the Canada Dock line with all stakeholders (including Everton)
5. Ensure new stand designs allow for retractable roof/pitch in the future

Liverpool FC must have a grand vision and a plan to get there."

2. I know the sight lines from other part of the stadium will mean you cant see the goal if the happened.  Would mean significant work on other stands if it's possible even.

3. Houses behind the centenary are all full and not falling to bits.  The club where accused of sending the streets previously  behind the main into being derelict by buying them and sitting on them for decades.  Would we do that again?

4. The station on the line is the same distance away as kirkdale station already.  From what I've read it won't add anything to the fan flow really

5. Why would we want a retractable roof?
« Last Edit: March 28, 2016, 12:23:54 pm by macca007 »

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2016, 10:16:30 am »
Found this on another forum. What do you think is he right?

"Virtually every topic of discussion comes back to the same thing: future proofing. The fans - who will continue to use the stadium long after FSG have gone - must demand that anything they do on the stadium has provision for future proofing built in.

In my opinion the 5 future proofing issues the club must address during phases 1 and 2 are as follows:
1. re-route WBR to enable a Mega Kop to be built
2. rebuild the ARE (rather than extend) to deliver the optimum stand and pitch length
3. start purchasing houses behind the Centenary to enable future expansion
4. revisit the train station proposal on the Canada Dock line with all stakeholders (including Everton)
5. Ensure new stand designs allow for retractable roof/pitch in the future

Liverpool FC must have a grand vision and a plan to get there."

1. Been discussed a lot. In an ideal world it could be done, cost very little and cause little distruption. It's not an ideal world. It's also not really needed to expand the Kop, and safe standing is the only real option for a 'mega Kop'.

2. The pitch is 101 x 68m, which is the max width allowed and a couple of metres short (4m). Extending it to 105m is hardly going to make much difference at all. Plus there are a load of sight line issues in doing so, and a total rebuild of the Anny throws up issues with the new seating and stand distances having to comply with modern regs.

3. All refurbed and lived in. May be worth the club seeing if they want to sell at some point, but they'd have to be good landlords if that's the case and not just board them up.

4. Shit load of issues involved in this and it's something which needs to be done as it'll benefit the local area 7 days a week, and not a football club for 19 times a year.

5. Ridiculous, to be honest.

Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2016, 09:07:00 pm »
1. Been discussed a lot. In an ideal world it could be done, cost very little and cause little distruption. It's not an ideal world. It's also not really needed to expand the Kop, and safe standing is the only real option for a 'mega Kop'.

2. The pitch is 101 x 68m, which is the max width allowed and a couple of metres short (4m). Extending it to 105m is hardly going to make much difference at all. Plus there are a load of sight line issues in doing so, and a total rebuild of the Anny throws up issues with the new seating and stand distances having to comply with modern regs.

3. All refurbed and lived in. May be worth the club seeing if they want to sell at some point, but they'd have to be good landlords if that's the case and not just board them up.

4. Shit load of issues involved in this and it's something which needs to be done as it'll benefit the local area 7 days a week, and not a football club for 19 times a year.

5. Ridiculous, to be honest.


One day, there may well be a case for a mega everything and they may already be a plan to get there. I guarantee it won't take on every single thing that has proved to be too outrageously difficult, unpalatable, expensive or none of the club's business,

.

Offline Alan_X

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2016, 01:58:49 pm »
Found this on another forum. What do you think is he right?

"Virtually every topic of discussion comes back to the same thing: future proofing. The fans - who will continue to use the stadium long after FSG have gone - must demand that anything they do on the stadium has provision for future proofing built in.

In my opinion the 5 future proofing issues the club must address during phases 1 and 2 are as follows:
1. re-route WBR to enable a Mega Kop to be built
2. rebuild the ARE (rather than extend) to deliver the optimum stand and pitch length
3. start purchasing houses behind the Centenary to enable future expansion
4. revisit the train station proposal on the Canada Dock line with all stakeholders (including Everton)
5. Ensure new stand designs allow for retractable roof/pitch in the future

Liverpool FC must have a grand vision and a plan to get there."

I think they're clueless and have no idea what 'future proofing' means in practice.

What exactly is the future that these five things are 'proofing' against?

The assumption appears to be that there will be a need for 70,000, 80,000... maybe 90,000 seats. Based on what exactly?  The main driver for increased capacity used to be to increase match day income. Is that what's driving these suggestions? TV money has become more important - is stadium capacity going to be a major financial issue?

1. MegaKop - for who exactly? Mega Kop and major infrastructure works = mega expanse and high ticket prices. Safe standing would almost double the capacity of the Kop and allow cheaper tickets.

2. What exactly is the optimum stand and pitch length? Optimum is the best under a particular set of circumstances - a 'sweet spot' in other words. If you mean move the Annie Road back to extend the pitch to meet UEFA minimum then you'd also need to demolish and rebuild the Centenary and new Main Stands to avoid restricted views at that end.

3. Future expansion as in what? Demolishing the Centenary and starting again from scratch? That's not going to happen anytime soon unless you want the club to be hamstrung financially. So buy them up and what? Board them up for five, ten, fifteen, twenty years?...

4. It's been revisited a few times and it's not viable. What's changed?

5. Retractable roof and pitch? What on earth for? We play football not tennis. Is this meant to create a multi-purpose all-weather stadium. Essentially it would mean demolishing everything and starting from scratch.

What a load of Skyscraper City bollocks.
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Offline Titi Camara

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #20 on: March 30, 2016, 02:31:38 pm »
Safe standing would almost double the capacity of the Kop and allow cheaper tickets.
Is what the owners should be seriously looking at right now. It would solve so many current problems and potentially get a younger more enthusiastic crowd involved.

Could potentially go someway to lowering collective ticket prices.
Give younger, less well off supporters a way into the ground.
Improve the atmosphere (which in itself generates a halo effect for revenues).

Win, win, win, win! ;D

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #21 on: April 16, 2016, 10:07:34 pm »
Is what the owners should be seriously looking at right now. It would solve so many current problems and potentially get a younger more enthusiastic crowd involved.

Could potentially go someway to lowering collective ticket prices.
Give younger, less well off supporters a way into the ground.
Improve the atmosphere (which in itself generates a halo effect for revenues).

Win, win, win, win! ;D


Once the inquests are over I think personally this should be actively  by the club

Offline whiteboots

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #22 on: June 5, 2016, 07:04:26 pm »
The reason why we are where we are is decades, post Taylor, of inaction and missed opportunity.

The Millennium stadium, built with retractable roof and a 74,500 capacity for £121m in 1999, more or less what we will pay for a new main stand, is the most damning indictment of our indolence.

Even as construction costs have fallen, steel and oil prices have plummeted, inflation and interest rates have stayed low, while football monies have exploded, the opportunity to comprehensively redevelop, or relocate, has been squandered.

Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #23 on: June 5, 2016, 08:47:43 pm »
The reason why we are where we are is decades, post Taylor, of inaction and missed opportunity.

The Millennium stadium, built with retractable roof and a 74,500 capacity for £121m in 1999, more or less what we will pay for a new main stand, is the most damning indictment of our indolence.

Even as construction costs have fallen, steel and oil prices have plummeted, inflation and interest rates have stayed low, while football monies have exploded, the opportunity to comprehensively redevelop, or relocate, has been squandered.


We haven't had a low cost of anything before 2008 and the construction cost of stadiums has not followed the crash. I take it you were around at the time.

The club started looking at redevelopment in 2002 but got railroaded into an unaffordable new stadium by paranoid Liverpool politics (clubs/ all businesses are either a. useless/incompetent or b. money-grabbing bastards who should be stopped doing what ever they want to do at all costs), followed by an interim period of proper incompetent, money-grabbing bastards and followed by the current period of owners who have ripped straight through all the bullshit to the only sensible and affordable alternative for the fans.

Just think, we could have been paying £90 a ticket all this time. Just like Arsenal.

And BTW, the millennium stadium was three-quarters of a stadium, didn't carry much finance costs (Millennium fund grant and debenture holder contributions), wasn't required to fund player development and has comparatively limited hospitality facilities.

As for prices 'staying low', oil in 2014 was roughly 5 times as expensive as 1999 and the cost of steel in 2012 was roughly double: http://www.nass.org.uk/Publications/Publication3327/UK%20Steel%20KeyStatistics2013.pdf
« Last Edit: June 5, 2016, 09:15:08 pm by Peter McGurk »

Offline whiteboots

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #24 on: June 5, 2016, 10:02:41 pm »
Post 2008, construction costs tumbled as new build, residential and commercial, stalled. Major project costs did inflate as capacity was used for the Olympics, then it fell away again. They’ re now rising again as HS2 and Hitachi NP  are added to the mix of an improved commercial and residential sectors- taking advantage of the favourable conditions I described.

Steel and oil prices have fallen by two thirds. Fact.

A 60k new stadium for £300m looks like good value now.

The status quo is a sop that does not address the long term needs and aspirations of our club. The costs associated with the Arsenal project in Islington are not analogous to an Anfield stadium.

It really does not matter how the Millenium stadium was funded, it cost about the same as our new main stand will cost. All grounds are a compromise of sorts. The hospitality provision is substantially greater than that of Anfield. It is a good ground.

Key commodity prices and interest rates are unusually low now. What they were in 1999 is by the by ( and they still facilitated a stadium at £120m).

I just saw the thread title and thought that the answer needed fleshing out.

Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #25 on: June 6, 2016, 12:01:51 am »
Post 2008, construction costs tumbled as new build, residential and commercial, stalled. Major project costs did inflate as capacity was used for the Olympics, then it fell away again. They’ re now rising again as HS2 and Hitachi NP  are added to the mix of an improved commercial and residential sectors- taking advantage of the favourable conditions I described.

Steel and oil prices have fallen by two thirds. Fact.

A 60k new stadium for £300m looks like good value now.

The status quo is a sop that does not address the long term needs and aspirations of our club. The costs associated with the Arsenal project in Islington are not analogous to an Anfield stadium.

It really does not matter how the Millenium stadium was funded, it cost about the same as our new main stand will cost. All grounds are a compromise of sorts. The hospitality provision is substantially greater than that of Anfield. It is a good ground.

Key commodity prices and interest rates are unusually low now. What they were in 1999 is by the by ( and they still facilitated a stadium at £120m).

I just saw the thread title and thought that the answer needed fleshing out.

The facts are there for anyone to see. Five minutes on google if you can be bothered. If we were starting today, some prices would be comparable but we're not are we. If we were, it would rather defeat your point.

If we were building in 1999, we would have enjoyed the same steel prices as the Millennium Stadium. But we didn't. We didn't because a new stadium is inherently more expensive than a redevelopment and the club didn't have the benefit of financial support from the Millennium Fund or debenture holders.

The club were thus keen on a redevelopment as the most sensible thing to do but certain councillors got it in their heads that the club were raping the community. Here we are 14 years later doing the right thing by redeveloping to the benefit of club and community almost exactly as planned in 2002. 14 years wasted because of political interference.

The fact of the matter is that if we had started a new stadium anytime in the past ten years, we would still be paying for it and we would paying for 60,000 seats instead of 15,000. There are few turn out prices in the last twenty years of which the Emirates is the most directly comparable at £360m for 60,000 seats (2006). Already way and above the Millennium Stadium prices. This contract was let in 2014 before the recent drop in oil prices. Any earlier as you wanted and it would have been worse. Any later and you'd be moaning about lack of progress.

Whatever has happened to prices in other construction sectors, they are other construction sectors. Nevertheless, other than the small window of opportunity either side of the crash when nobody was doing anything, there has been unrelenting national upward pressure on concrete, brick and steel prices. Again as I said steel prices have just about doubled and oil prices have gone up five-fold since 1999 when a crystal ball would have been needed to see that council would turn it's back on a redevelopment that would regenerate the area.

What the club needs and what you think the club needs are worlds apart. As has been discussed ad infinitum in the 70,000 thread, nobody actually knows. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. The club is taking it stage by stage, testing the water. It's either that or a big fat white elephant, full for two or three games a season and a financial deadweight for the rest.



« Last Edit: June 6, 2016, 12:03:56 am by Peter McGurk »

Offline whiteboots

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #26 on: June 6, 2016, 06:59:21 am »
I think the point is that there are points in the construction and financial cycle that are more, and less favourable. To date, post Taylor, we have missed them all.

We didn’t move to a new stadium in 1999 because our eye was off the ball. How a much reduced cost is funded is irrelevant.

It is not true that a redevelopment is inherently less expensive than  new build. The reverse is often the case.

It is true that, for us, building one or two new stands, in situ, is cheaper than building a new stadium. But there again, building one or two new stands is more expensive than building a new hot dog stand. In itself, it does not justify the hot dog stand.

There is nothing wrong with paying down a stadium investment over ten years that pays back over fifty. The cycle of opportunity post, and pre, dates both the Millenium stadium and Emirates ( see The Stadium of Light new build and the Hawthorns redevelopment).

What the Club has always needed is a stadium fit for the 21st Century and our status, in all stands, and a capacity commensurate to our support. The argument that you don’t expand capacity because you might not fill it is a poor one. You examine the evidence, and make a decision. Chelsea, Spurs and West Ham have done just that, and determined that the growth was there, as did Man U, Man City, Arsenal, Leicester, Southampton, Stoke, Swansea, Bournemouth, and Sunderland before them. That is why we are where we are.


As you say, the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

We can't make good the mistakes of the past, let us hope that our new main stand and ARE provide a platform for greater things all around.

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #27 on: June 6, 2016, 07:12:50 am »
It is not true that a redevelopment is inherently less expensive than  new build. The reverse is often the case.

That's nonsense mate. It's true that in construction for certain types of projects, it's more cost effective to knock down and rebuild in terms of return on investment. You get a better quality and higher lettable value but the actual baseline cost is usually more. As someone who has designed redevelopments in complex existing buildings I know what I'm talking about. It would make financial sense to build new if the club were looking to use improved facilities to justify increased ticket prices across the board.

The redevelopment of Anfield is essentially two new build elements alongside the existing stadium. There is almost no change to any of the existing stands apart from re-profiling the Paddock. That means we get a 60,000 seater stadium for the cost of 15,000 new seats. And the relatively high cost of the Main Stand extension is because we're adding the hospitality elements that will put us back on terms with the teams we should be competing in the league and cups.

Could you explain how a new build 60,000 seat stadium to match all of the facilities what we're getting with the current development would come in lower than the cost of the Main Stand and ARE extensions?
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Offline whiteboots

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #28 on: June 6, 2016, 09:29:53 am »
That's nonsense mate. It's true that in construction for certain types of projects, it's more cost effective to knock down and rebuild in terms of return on investment. You get a better quality and higher lettable value but the actual baseline cost is usually more. As someone who has designed redevelopments in complex existing buildings I know what I'm talking about. It would make financial sense to build new if the club were looking to use improved facilities to justify increased ticket prices across the board.

In situ redevelopment invariably involves compromise or obligation because of a constrained site layout. New build, generally, has no such constraints. That is where it can be cheaper. Cost over runs for redevelopments/ refurbishments are notoriously more commonplace than new build, the formers price tends to reflect that either in the quoted, or end, cost.

I do think that the improved facilities all round that a new stadium would have offered would have been justified. The lower tier of the Centenary is knee crunching owing to its historic antecedents as the Kemlyn lower. The Kop in size and facility will be almost quarter of a century behind the pace by the time the Main Stand is up and running.

The redevelopment of Anfield is essentially two new build elements alongside the existing stadium. There is almost no change to any of the existing stands apart from re-profiling the Paddock. That means we get a 60,000 seater stadium for the cost of 15,000 new seats. And the relatively high cost of the Main Stand extension is because we're adding the hospitality elements that will put us back on terms with the teams we should be competing in the league and cups. .
Agreed.

Could you explain how a new build 60,000 seat stadium to match all of the facilities what we're getting with the current development would come in lower than the cost of the Main Stand and ARE extensions?
We couldn't, now. I was demonstrating the point that inaction itself has a cost.

I accept that the new stadium argument is long gone. I do think that as fans we should press for the best possible ARE. A new Kop, single tier, the biggest single end stand in the country would be a fine statement.

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #29 on: June 6, 2016, 09:40:52 am »
I don't get why people are so obsessed with 'statements'. See it all the time in the transfer forum and in here, wanting the biggest name or the biggest capacity stand, seemingly at any cost, including if it doesn't fit with the overall plan.

A massive new 'Kop' would cost a fortune, be under new building regs (so further from the pitch, less steep, bigger seats, etc) and given the promise for Kop tickets to always be the lowest in the ground be particularly hard to recoup the very high build cost from due to the size of the stand required.

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #30 on: June 6, 2016, 01:55:00 pm »
I don't get why people are so obsessed with 'statements'. See it all the time in the transfer forum and in here, wanting the biggest name or the biggest capacity stand, seemingly at any cost, including if it doesn't fit with the overall plan.


I always assume it's just a dick waving contest. The world and its mother are on Twitter, forums, Facebook etc. and some people just want something to brag about. "We've got the biggest stadium/our club is worth more than yours by Forbes/we've a better kit deal" and so on.

The whole "we're Liverpool so we should have the biggest..." is such a strange statement as there's no historical context to it. We've never had the biggest ground or best attendance. Not to mention the Kop has never been our biggest stand.

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #31 on: June 6, 2016, 05:36:50 pm »
Just been reading about the grounds being used in the Euro 2016 finals. Bordeaux have a brand-new 42,000-seat stadium which cost £130m. Lyon have a 59,000-capacity ground which cost £294m. We are spending £260m to put a top tier of 8,500 seats on the Main Stand and 4,800 seats on the Anfield Road end. I'm probably missing something but why are we spending so much for such a small return while French clubs are getting so much for their money?

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #32 on: June 6, 2016, 05:39:52 pm »
We aren't spending £260m...

That's the cost of the renovation of the entire area....  Only part of which is the stadium.

Rough estimates were £150m for adding 13-14 thousand seats...

So we have as big a stadium as Lyon for half the cost


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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #33 on: June 6, 2016, 05:41:29 pm »
Just been reading about the grounds being used in the Euro 2016 finals. Bordeaux have a brand-new 42,000-seat stadium which cost £130m. Lyon have a 59,000-capacity ground which cost £294m. We are spending £260m to put a top tier of 8,500 seats on the Main Stand and 4,800 seats on the Anfield Road end. I'm probably missing something but why are we spending so much for such a small return while French clubs are getting so much for their money?

1. We aren't spending £260m. We are spending approx £120m for the Main Stand work. This will see a huge return on investment given it includes a huge amount of expensive corp seats (hence the build cost).

2. You can't really compare build costs in another country to that of the UK. If you want to do that let's compare our build cost to some US stadiums, at which point it looks cheap.

3. We're spending £120m to have 54,500 seats. Those two stadiums have spent more per seat than we have.

Offline whiteboots

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #34 on: June 7, 2016, 09:27:37 am »
I don't get why people are so obsessed with 'statements'. See it all the time in the transfer forum and in here, wanting the biggest name or the biggest capacity stand, seemingly at any cost, including if it doesn't fit with the overall plan.

A massive new 'Kop' would cost a fortune, be under new building regs (so further from the pitch, less steep, bigger seats, etc) and given the promise for Kop tickets to always be the lowest in the ground be particularly hard to recoup the very high build cost from due to the size of the stand required.
I think that people's concerns are more about how our stadium thinking has been inferior to our history.

In the history of the European game, our CL record pitches us alongside Barca, Madrid, Bayern Munich and Milan, at home it is only a matter of time before we regain our title perch! Has Anfield 1991-2016 reflected that? Does the new main stand do it?

The new ARE, if built, CAN be a "massive new Kop".To get to a 58,500 capacity it has to be bigger.

Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #35 on: July 31, 2016, 04:18:50 pm »
In situ redevelopment invariably involves compromise or obligation because of a constrained site layout. New build, generally, has no such constraints. That is where it can be cheaper. Cost over runs for redevelopments/ refurbishments are notoriously more commonplace than new build, the formers price tends to reflect that either in the quoted, or end, cost.

I do think that the improved facilities all round that a new stadium would have offered would have been justified. The lower tier of the Centenary is knee crunching owing to its historic antecedents as the Kemlyn lower. The Kop in size and facility will be almost quarter of a century behind the pace by the time the Main Stand is up and running.
Agreed.
We couldn't, now. I was demonstrating the point that inaction itself has a cost.

I accept that the new stadium argument is long gone. I do think that as fans we should press for the best possible ARE. A new Kop, single tier, the biggest single end stand in the country would be a fine statement.

Who's talking about doing nothing? Just you - only you.

Just to ask (again), can you explain how £300m for a new stadium is cheaper than a redevelopment for £150m?

Does anyone seriously see any compromises in the Main Stand? I think not. You'll be saying it's a 'lick of paint' next.

'Fine statements' on their own (ARE or otherwise) are just money in the bin. They don't pay the bills or move the club forward. They don't help in the dog eat dog competition of the Premier League.

For that you need, a good deal for the club and the fans that produces the funds the club needs at prices fans can afford; yes, a stadium we can be proud of but not to splash money about recklessly on 'fine statements'.
« Last Edit: July 31, 2016, 04:31:25 pm by Peter McGurk »

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #36 on: July 31, 2016, 04:24:54 pm »
There are financial arguments for having less and for having more. I'm not hugely fussed either way given some of the arguments for having more don't apply to us simply because we should see high demand throughout the season regardless, and have plenty of cash (or at least finance facility) without having to build up a stack of cash by the end of Man through sales of STs.

It's the likes of Everton, who have issued a big number this coming season, who have done so in an attempt to bring in a load of cash before the summer spend. Plus given their demand for tickets isn't always high means they've sold them now without the risk of not selling them later in the season.

Anyway, probably best to end this discussion in here and get back to posting update pics  ;D

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #37 on: August 1, 2016, 11:58:30 am »
What about the intangibles?  If for example there was a way of expanding the Kop that wouldn't make a direct return but would improve the atmosphere?

Ian Ayre has already said that the Kop Brand (he didn't use that term, something along the lines of the 'famous atmosphere'), makes commercial deals abroad easier.

IF it could be expanded at a loss to the Club but it added room for more cheaper general admission tickets should it be risked, if it could add value to the 'Kop Brand'?
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Offline Peter McGurk

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #38 on: August 1, 2016, 12:54:21 pm »
What about the intangibles?  If for example there was a way of expanding the Kop that wouldn't make a direct return but would improve the atmosphere?

Ian Ayre has already said that the Kop Brand (he didn't use that term, something along the lines of the 'famous atmosphere'), makes commercial deals abroad easier.

IF it could be expanded at a loss to the Club but it added room for more cheaper general admission tickets should it be risked, if it could add value to the 'Kop Brand'?

Yes and I've made that argument. That and for the longevity of the business, maintaining global appeal, getting a young crowd, 'critical mass' merchandising etc

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Re: Why we are where we are
« Reply #39 on: August 1, 2016, 01:22:04 pm »
Yes and I've made that argument. That and for the longevity of the business, maintaining global appeal, getting a young crowd, 'critical mass' merchandising etc

So, do we really need to make a financial return on the Annie Road?  If we need these 'missing demographics' that traditionally have provided the 'famous atmosphere' that we market, why can't we take a bit of a loss on it and try to repair what we've got left of it?  They've already given an allocation to locals in 126/127, this could be expanded to provide more accessibility to young working class lads. 

Or, is the only hope for an increase in capacity with the main intention to improve atmosphere safe standing?  These ideas that have been banded about such as straightening the Kop (adding a block 303 and 307), or re-routing Walton Breck Road, would it be ridiculously expensive, or just too expensive to make a decent return?  (They're only two examples I can think of, they might not be the best examples). 
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