Topic: Local Elections May 4th 2017

[killer-heels]

150 was my prediction at the start of the campaign down from 200 when Corbyn was elected leader.  I think I may have been a tad optimistic though.....

180. Give or take 5-10 seats either way.

[Danny Boys Dad]

you'd fit in well with corbyn! He also doesn't want people to vote labour like you!

I welcome all Labour voters whether ex-Tory, Ex-Lib Dem or whatever but you have to draw the line somewhere.

[filopastry]

150 was my prediction at the start of the campaign down from 200 when Corbyn was elected leader.  I think I may have been a tad optimistic though.....

The hope for Labour would have to be that the leadership issue is already reflected in the local results as it has been brought into focus by the GE campaign, because if it isn't then June 8th could be even uglier than I expected.

[The Gulleysucker]

Abbott with another unfortunate Costello moment singlehandedly doing her utmost to prevent Labour from winning anything....

https://twitter.com/itnsourcenews/status/860446858883321856

As someone points out,  About '50'....last time I looked 100 seats lost...why on earth say 50 initially then?

Is she ill?

[killer-heels]

Abbott with another unfortunate Costello moment singlehandedly doing her utmost to prevent Labour from winning anything....

https://twitter.com/itnsourcenews/status/860446858883321856

As someone points out,  About '50'....last time I looked 100 seats lost...why on earth say 50 initially then?

Is she ill?

There was an Independent article saying that Diane Abbott doesnt deserve to be hounded constantly. She absolutely does. I would happily be the one to do it.

[Yorkykopite]

Abbott with another unfortunate Costello moment singlehandedly doing her utmost to prevent Labour from winning anything....

https://twitter.com/itnsourcenews/status/860446858883321856

As someone points out,  About '50'....last time I looked 100 seats lost...why on earth say 50 initially then?

Is she ill?

I love the look on her face when the reporter gives her the correct number. (Oh, shit I've fucked up again). I kinda like the bedside manner of the reporter too. So gentle, like he knows he's talking to someone who's a bit simple.

[Wabaloolah]

The hope for Labour would have to be that the leadership issue is already reflected in the local results as it has been brought into focus by the GE campaign, because if it isn't then June 8th could be even uglier than I expected.

I really fear that this is the tip of the iceberg.  Labour were expected to do better in local elections than the general one.  It does look like the swing is inline with the National Polls though and that is Tory landslide territory

[Wabaloolah]

180. Give or take 5-10 seats either way.

If they got 180 I fear Corbyn could cling on, the actual scale of the victory will depend on tactical voting

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Abbott with another unfortunate Costello moment singlehandedly doing her utmost to prevent Labour from winning anything....

https://twitter.com/itnsourcenews/status/860446858883321856

As someone points out,  About '50'....last time I looked 100 seats lost...why on earth say 50 initially then?

Is she ill?

please god make this woman labour leader after the election, at least for a year or two so we can just laugh at her

[killer-heels]

If they got 180 I fear Corbyn could cling on, the actual scale of the victory will depend on tactical voting

He is hanging on either way. He wont go.

[Danny Boys Dad]

please god make this woman labour leader after the election, at least for a year or two so we can just laugh at her

I think you need to get out more, that doesn't sound healthy

There was an Independent article saying that Diane Abbott doesnt deserve to be hounded constantly. She absolutely does. I would happily be the one to do it.

Neither does that

[The Gulleysucker]

....like he knows he's talking to someone who's a bit simple.

It's odd behaviour though, I've always understood that she's a bright individual, Cambridge and all that, and her speech in the HoP re Civil Liberties 10 years or so ago was pretty good, but it's as if she's regressing (or perhaps coasting through to retirement or even hoped for elevation to the Lords?).

[Yorkykopite]

It's odd behaviour though, I've always understood that she's a bright individual, Cambridge and all that, and her speech in the HoP re Civil Liberties 10 years or so ago was pretty good, but it's as if she's regressing (or perhaps coasting through to retirement or even hoped for elevation to the Lords?).

Didn't Prince Charles also get to Cambridge? They clearly have one or two places reserved for what Aldous Huxley, in Brave New World, called Epsilon-Minus-Semi-Morons.

[JackWard33]

If they got 180 I fear Corbyn could cling on, the actual scale of the victory will depend on tactical voting

Just think about that.... that would be 30 seats worse than Michael foot ... and you think he'd cling on ... and you'd probably be right.

[The Gulleysucker]

Didn't Prince Charles also get to Cambridge? They clearly have one or two places reserved for what Aldous Huxley, in Brave New World, called Epsilon-Minus-Semi-Morons.

Something like a solitary GCE 'O' if I remember rightly, quite possibly grade 6.
And strangely, wasn't he the only person on that particular new degree stream that he applied for, and that then was no longer available once he'd graduated?

[Zeb]

Rotheram's won (as expected). Turnout was 26%.

Steve Rotheram (Lab) 171,167 (59.30%)
Tony Caldeira (C) 58,805 (20.37%)
Carl Cashman (LD) 19,751 (6.84%)
Tom Crone (Green) 14,094 (4.88%)
Paula Walters (UKIP) 11,946 (4.14%)
Roger Bannister (TUSC) 7,881 (2.73%)
Tabitha Morton (Women) 4,287 (1.49%)
Paul Breen (Jury) 729 (0.25%)

Manchester's turnout was 29%. By comparison, first London Mayoral election had turnout of 34%.

[Wabaloolah]

Just think about that.... that would be 30 seats worse than Michael foot ... and you think he'd cling on ... and you'd probably be right.

Oh I know that, the worst result for Labour since 1935 when Labour was in recovery following 1931, whatever way it gets painted it will be a disaster of a result.  He has to go, if he doesn't then the party will split no doubt in my mind and then there will be a battle in the courts for the Labour name

[JackWard33]

Oh I know that, the worst result for Labour since 1935 when Labour was in recovery following 1931, whatever way it gets painted it will be a disaster of a result.  He has to go, if he doesn't then the party will split no doubt in my mind and then there will be a battle in the courts for the Labour name

I hope so but I don't see this level of will, desire or leadership from the centre-left to make this happen - where as the Corbyn and the far left are hell bent on having control of labour. I don't see many reasons to be optimistic - can't see a good outcome in the medium term :/

[Wabaloolah]

Agreed Jack, whatever way it goes it won't be pretty and I personally think Labour will have to write off the 2022 and 2027 Elections.  The sad thing is there is no opposition to the Tories!

[filopastry]

Agreed Jack, whatever way it goes it won't be pretty and I personally think Labour will have to write off the 2022 and 2027 Elections.  The sad thing is there is no opposition to the Tories!

I tend to agree, the longer this goes on for , the longer it will take Labour to recover (if they can).

Unfortunately under FPTP as long as Labour are where they are now, by sweeping up a lot of left of centre votes into an unelectable party, they are pretty much guaranteeing Tory rule.

It won't go on forever though, if they can't step up to provide effective opposition, they will be replaced by another party that will.

[Libertine]

First campaign I've been involved in - just helping out with leafletting so far, but been enjoyable and feels good to be doing something rather than simply despairing about the state of our politics.

The council is filled with Tories and Kippers but hopefully we'll send a good liberal there to keep them honest.

We won the seat! 

https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=564

Was a nervous wait given the results elsewhere, but a comfortable win in the end.


Kent is of course a sea of blue with some scattered yellow liberal enclaves. But at least no more Kippers and the Lib Dems are the official opposition again....

http://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/how-the-council-works/kent-county-council-elections/live-election-results

[TepidT2O]

The Tories have won the Tees valley mayoral election.


That's one of the biggest electoral disasters I can remember... how did labour lose that?

[filopastry]

We won the seat! 

https://democracy.kent.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?ID=564

Was a nervous wait given the results elsewhere, but a comfortable win in the end.


Kent is of course a sea of blue with some scattered yellow liberal enclaves. But at least no more Kippers and the Lib Dems are the official opposition again....

http://www.kent.gov.uk/about-the-council/how-the-council-works/kent-county-council-elections/live-election-results

Congratulations, I would say I know the feeling but any campaigns I've been involved in recent memory have been abject disasters

[harryc]

Labour even lost the Mayoral vote in Tees valley can they sink any lower.

[TepidT2O]

A catastrophic beating

Unprecedented.  Corbyn must resign

[BoRed]

The Tories have won the Tees valley mayoral election.

That's one of the biggest electoral disasters I can remember... how did labour lose that?

First Round

Ben Houchen (C) 40,278 (39.45%)
Sue Jeffrey (Lab) 39,797 (38.98%)
Chris Foote Wood (LD) 12,550 (12.29%)
John Tennant (UKIP) 9,475 (9.28%)

Second round

Ben Houchen (C) 48,578
Sue Jeffrey (Lab) 46,400

Looks like loads of Lib Dem voters didn't bother stating their second preference.

[ShakaHislop]

A 58% majority for the Tory in my county council ward. The UKIP (23%) and Tory (47%) votes from 2013 perfectly match the share Tory boy got this year (70%)

[Libertine]

Congratulations, I would say I know the feeling but any campaigns I've been involved in recent memory have been abject disasters

Cheers 

I suspect I'll be seeing the other side of it next month but the fight goes on.

[BoRed]

BBC's projected national share of the vote based on today's results:

Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%

That's a lot lower for the Tories and a lot more for the Lib Dems than any polls suggest, but I hope it's more correct.

[zero zero]

A catastrophic beating

Unprecedented.  Corbyn must resign

He won't.

See you again on June 9th

[TepidT2O]

BBC's projected national share of the vote based on today's results:

Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%

That's a lot lower for the Tories and a lot more for the Lib Dems than any polls suggest, but I hope it's more correct.

Worth noting that the labour vote seems certain to be lower in the GE as the Corbyn factor comes into play more fully

[Gerry Attrick]

29 councils in England have declared, Tories won 25 of them. They have the most seats in the other 4 that have NOC (including Cumbria, Northumberland and Nottinghamshire).

[Libertine]

BBC's projected national share of the vote based on today's results:

Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%

That's a lot lower for the Tories and a lot more for the Lib Dems than any polls suggest, but I hope it's more correct.

Lib Dems are +7% on the 2013 elections, yet have lost seats instead of the expected +85 gains.

Think the effective Tory-UKIP merger did huge damage to the efforts to gain in the southern councils.

Initial results suggest some very good localised results in some target seats though.

[killer-heels]

BBC's projected national share of the vote based on today's results:

Conservatives: 38%
Labour: 27%
Lib Dems: 18%
Ukip: 5%

That's a lot lower for the Tories and a lot more for the Lib Dems than any polls suggest, but I hope it's more correct.

Just a reminder to those who think the country has shifted right.

[Zeb]

Lib Dems are +7% on the 2013 elections, yet have lost seats instead of the expected +85 gains.

Think the effective Tory-UKIP merger did huge damage to the efforts to gain in the southern councils.

Initial results suggest some very good localised results in some target seats though.

Anyone expecting much LD success against a big Tory swing would seem seriously misled. General Election may well be equally free of joy for the LDs for similar reasons. (That projected national share is comparable to Thatcher in 1983 and 1987.)

[TheShanklyGates]

Labour even lost the Mayoral vote in Tees valley can they sink any lower.

I suspect we haven't seen anything yet.

[Danny Boys Dad]

29 councils in England have declared, Tories won 25 of them. They have the most seats in the other 4 that have NOC (including Cumbria, Northumberland and Nottinghamshire).

The areas voting this time were largely Tory though weren't they?

Labour do have to win in those areas to win the GE and there have been some very bad results but it's not the end of the world.

[JackWard33]

Just a reminder to those who think the country has shifted right.

I mean I have no idea if it has or not but those results actually back up that its shifted right.

That's the lowest Labour vote for decades, the first time an opposition has lost seats in council elections 3 times in a row and it extrapolates to close to a 20 point tory win in a general election

[Purple Red]

Rotheram's won (as expected). Turnout was 26%.

Steve Rotheram (Lab) 171,167 (59.30%)
Tony Caldeira (C) 58,805 (20.37%)
Carl Cashman (LD) 19,751 (6.84%)
Tom Crone (Green) 14,094 (4.88%)
Paula Walters (UKIP) 11,946 (4.14%)
Roger Bannister (TUSC) 7,881 (2.73%)
Tabitha Morton (Women) 4,287 (1.49%)
Paul Breen (Jury) 729 (0.25%)

Manchester's turnout was 29%. By comparison, first London Mayoral election had turnout of 34%.

I know these were local elections but those turnout figures are a tragic indictment of the lack of political engagement in the UK.

[killer-heels]

I mean I have no idea if it has or not but those results actually back up that its shifted right.

That's the lowest Labour vote for decades, the first time an opposition has lost seats 3 times in a row and it extrapolates to close to a 20 point tory win in a general election

Most of that vote share goes to left and centre parties. That is on top of a turnout that is also going to be higher with the sorts of people that will vote Tory (the old). If you factor in likely Labour to Tory votes on account of Corbyn, the idea that the country has shifted right and its basically the end for centre and left of centre parties is clearly a bit mad.

There are the voter base out there for Labour. Too bad its utterly useless.