Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[Red Beret]

All bets are off if Ukraine isolates Crimea.

Starting to genuinely worry about Putin crossing the line.

[Red-Soldier]

Their folding like a deck of cards!

Will Vlad be able to stomach the humiliation....?

[Red-Soldier]

It seems that in splitting the Russian forces, the Crimea will essentially be cut off.

Yep.

The land bridge looks like it's going to go, shortly.

That just leaves the bridge Russia constructed over the sea.

[Indomitable_Carp]

I´m seeing all sorts of conflicting reports, but I haven´t seen anything yet backing up that its a full blown rout from Kerson. Most are saying they have pushed about 15kms towards Kherson - but some are claiming its an organised Russian withdrawal (which based off everything so far would be a first....) and some are saying its a full blown panicked rout. Suppose only those on the ground will really know....

Has anyone got any links?

[kennedy81]

Without wanting to digress from the seriousness of what’s happening in the Ukraine, this is a pretty good piece on the how frivolous people like Musk see the world. Everything is an easy fix.

What Elon Musk’s texts tell us about men, money and power.

https://amp.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/entrepreneurship/what-elon-musk-s-texts-tell-us-about-men-money-and-power-20221002-p5bmil.html

Tesla's stock price took an 8% hit the same day Musk tweeted. The war is causing supply chain issues, and contributed to Tesla not hitting its targets, hence the drop in price, the biggest 1 day drop since early June.
I'm struggling to see this as a coincidence. I think he wants the war to end because it's bad for his business. He also needs Tesla do be doing well given his purchase of Twitter. He sees ending the war as a problem to solve, except it's not an engineering problem and it's not his area of expertise. His arrogance and ignorance got the better of him, not for the first time.

[Red Beret]

I was struggling to find regular, clear updates of what's happening with the Ukraine counter-attack but I've come across this guy who does ~5 minute daily updates that cover what went on the previous day in a really concise manner. It really helps to get an idea of what's happening on the ground and how much ground is being gained/lose in context of the entire country. He's pro-Ukraine but from the few videos I've watched seems to readily admit when an attack fails.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/B31J4FaZhpg" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/B31J4FaZhpg</a>

I´m seeing all sorts of conflicting reports, but I haven´t seen anything yet backing up that its a full blown rout from Kerson. Most are saying they have pushed about 15kms towards Kherson - but some are claiming its an organised Russian withdrawal (which based off everything so far would be a first....) and some are saying its a full blown panicked rout. Suppose only those on the ground will really know....

Has anyone got any links?

This chap was recommended. Ukraine's tactics seem to be bypass the strong points, press the line until it collapses, and then see if the Russians abandon the strong points rather than let themselves be cut off.

It's a very methodical approach, and probably maximizes the effectiveness of their resources. It's not full proof; as the chap points out, weather has frustrated operations, and there have been local counter attacks. But it seems Russias supply issues prevents them from going on the offensive.

From what we've seen on attacks on the Russian navy, resupply via the sea probably isn't an option, but an evacuation by ship could be a massacre.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Will Vlad be able to stomach the humiliation....?

I heard a generous portion of polonium helps with digestion.

[Indomitable_Carp]

This chap was recommended. Ukraine's tactics seem to be bypass the strong points, press the line until it collapses, and then see if the Russians abandon the strong points rather than let themselves be cut off.

It's a very methodical approach, and probably maximizes the effectiveness of their resources. It's not full proof; as the chap points out, weather has frustrated operations, and there have been local counter attacks. But it seems Russias supply issues prevents them from going on the offensive.

From what we've seen on attacks on the Russian navy, resupply via the sea probably isn't an option, but an evacuation by ship could be a massacre.

I did watch that video, and it was interesting and explained the situation well. It´s just I didn´t necessarily see the full-scale Kherson collapse and danger of cutting off the Crimean land bridge before Christmas that some are referring to

[Red Beret]

I did watch that video, and it was interesting and explained the situation well. It´s just I didn´t necessarily see the full-scale Kherson collapse and danger of cutting off the Crimean land bridge before Christmas that some are referring to

Yeah, I was just  using that video to share the guy's channel. I'm waiting to see if he covers it, as I'm having the same trouble as you, squaring these collapse reports with his analysis. 

[Lone Star Red]

Between the chaos of war and PR on both sides, most updates of what is happening will be somewhat delayed and/or won't paint the full picture. And that's a good thing, real time updates of the war endanger Ukrainian troops. Just the other day, the official Ukrainian defense account tweeted out that what are essentially live updates need to stop, as it could end up in the wrong hands and give the Russians a clearer picture of what's happening.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Between the chaos of war and PR on both sides, most updates of what is happening will be somewhat delayed and/or won't paint the full picture. And that's a good thing, real time updates of the war endanger Ukrainian troops. Just the other day, the official Ukrainian defense account tweeted out that what are essentially live updates need to stop, as it could end up in the wrong hands and give the Russians a clearer picture of what's happening.

Also true, and something I do frequently think looking at all the twitter commentators posting satellite images and geolocating photos and video footage etc.

Think how tightly sensitive information in the Second World War was censored in comparison to this. Now anyone can hop on the internet and start beaming updates around the world (some probably well informed and some with dubious sources).

We have all become so used to the 24-hour news cycle that we can´t handle not knowing. Especially a war with the stakes this high, and with knock on effects for all of us. On the other hand I also have the uncomfortable feeling that it at least partly amounts to war as entertainment, at least on some level. Yet I am as guilty as anyone for going after these updates. 

However, you would think it also posits plenty of opportunity for deliberate misinformation and psyops by both Russia and Ukraine. I am sure Ukraine was more than happy with people beaming out stuff about Kherson, knowing it was a useful distraction for what actually about to unfold in Kharkiv.

The 21st Century eh!!

[Trump's tiny tiny hands]

Also true, and something I do frequently think looking at all the twitter commentators posting satellite images and geolocating photos and video footage etc.

Think how tightly sensitive information in the Second World War was censored in comparison to this. Now anyone can hop on the internet and start beaming updates around the world (some probably well informed and some with dubious sources).

We have all become so used to the 24-hour news cycle that we can´t handle not knowing. Especially a war with the stakes this high, and with knock on effects for all of us. On the other hand I also have the uncomfortable feeling that it at least partly amounts to war as entertainment, at least on some level. Yet I am as guilty as anyone for going after these updates. 

However, you would think it also posits plenty of opportunity for deliberate misinformation and psyops by both Russia and Ukraine. I am sure Ukraine was more than happy with people beaming out stuff about Kherson, knowing it was a useful distraction for what actually about to unfold in Kharkiv.

The 21st Century eh!!

Its pretty clear Ukraine is winning the PR and recon battle. The adaptation and flexibility in the use of their own and outside sourced recognisance is now miles ahead of the Russian's own efforts.

The Russian troops on the ground will surely have access to social media, media of all kinds, and I wonder how much that has effected their moral?

[Red Beret]

Also true, and something I do frequently think looking at all the twitter commentators posting satellite images and geolocating photos and video footage etc.

Think how tightly sensitive information in the Second World War was censored in comparison to this. Now anyone can hop on the internet and start beaming updates around the world (some probably well informed and some with dubious sources).

We have all become so used to the 24-hour news cycle that we can´t handle not knowing. Especially a war with the stakes this high, and with knock on effects for all of us. On the other hand I also have the uncomfortable feeling that it at least partly amounts to war as entertainment, at least on some level. Yet I am as guilty as anyone for going after these updates. 

However, you would think it also posits plenty of opportunity for deliberate misinformation and psyops by both Russia and Ukraine. I am sure Ukraine was more than happy with people beaming out stuff about Kherson, knowing it was a useful distraction for what actually about to unfold in Kharkiv.

The 21st Century eh!!

Agreed! People are too smart for their own good. They feel entitled to know what's going on. Imagine that attitude during WW2?  By necessity, war requires secrecy, and yes, sometimes lying to your people.

The specifics can be analysed when the dust is settled. For now I'm happy with the broad brushstrokes describing Ukrainian progress.

[Red Beret]

Its pretty clear Ukraine is winning the PR and recon battle. The adaptation and flexibility in the use of their own and outside sourced recognisance is now miles ahead of the Russian's own efforts.

The Russian troops on the ground will surely have access to social media, media of all kinds, and I wonder how much that has effected their moral?

Don't be too sure on that. If there's one thing Russia still excels at, it's censorship. But Russia does struggle to adapt to the unexpected, and i reckon they are intransigent in the outlook. I think history bears that out if you look at the early days of Operation Barbarossa and Afghanistan.

[Stockholm Syndrome]

I will tell you, one type of political animal I find truly vile at this moment in time, are those who lean so far "left" that anything the West does and says is a lie, and anyone against the West is a hero.

I am seeing way too much "progressive and liberal* support of the actions of Putin, peddling the line that Ukraine are Nazi's, that Nato started the war, and Putin is a socialist anti west hero for the age. Same people deny the Uighur genocide as Western Propaganda and promote China as a paradise. Same people say Putin and China are saving Africa, out of a sense of moral conscious.

I honestly find it sickening and backwards that so called progressives ignore or forget actual progressive ideals, and instead just religiously support anti-western standpoints as to support tyrannical dictators and deny genocides.

Same people even claim Stalin and Mao to be heroes.

And just like your alt-right weirdos, the same idiots will dismiss any argument you make agaisnt them as fake western propoganda and call those who disagree with them bootlickers

These people who spread Putin's message in the name a vile, idiotic, bottom feeders in my view, and incredibly dangerous

[Jiminy Cricket]

I will tell you, one type of political animal I find truly vile at this moment in time, are those who lean so far "left" that anything the West does and says is a lie, and anyone against the West is a hero.

I am seeing way too much "progressive and liberal* support of the actions of Putin, peddling the line that Ukraine are Nazi's, that Nato started the war, and Putin is a socialist anti west hero for the age. Same people deny the Uighur genocide as Western Propaganda and promote China as a paradise. Same people say Putin and China are saving Africa, out of a sense of moral conscious.

What happened with that Stop the War fringe meeting at the Labour Party conference?

* A quick search turned up this example of utter shite:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/EWFUPEhgxiA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/EWFUPEhgxiA</a>

Same people even claim Stalin and Mao to be [a] heroes.

Of course, there's this gem of insanity:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/uB4o5n2EGyA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/uB4o5n2EGyA</a>

These people who spread Putin's message in the name a vile, idiotic, bottom feeders in my view, and incredibly dangerous

Talking of that...

Here we go. Corbyn parses his words, but it is still de facto support for Putin. Putin and Russia are the aggressors, and they must be driven out. You cannot reason with Putin, else there would have been no invasion in the first place. Putin only understands strength; any display of weakness will be exploited by him. It is a transparent reality which lost upon some people.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/3y0AwwjiLps" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/3y0AwwjiLps</a>

[Red Beret]

Is it too much of a stretch to say Diane Abbot is the Liz Truss of the Labour Party? I don't want to derail the thread...

[Jiminy Cricket]

Is it too much of a stretch to say Diane Abbot is the Liz Truss of the Labour Party? I don't want to derail the thread...

A little bit. But maybe only because she is not PM is unlikely to be.*

* I'd say never will be PM, but 'never' seems to have lost all meaning these days. We seem to now inhabit a universe where cause and effect is broken.

[TepidT2O]

I’d say you were derailing the wrong thread!

[Jiminy Cricket]

I’d say you were derailing the wrong thread!

[Yorkykopite]

I will tell you, one type of political animal I find truly vile at this moment in time, are those who lean so far "left" that anything the West does and says is a lie, and anyone against the West is a hero.

Look on the bright side. This phenomenon was far worse a few years back. So many of their favourite causes are now either defeated or on the back foot. Venezuela is a basket case. Iran is showing the world how to attack and murder women. Russia's imperialist ambitions are grinding to a halt in Ukraine. All three of these regimes used to host Tv shows by members of the British Hard Left. I don't think they do now. Plus they've lost control of the Labour party.

[AndyInVA]

Don't be too sure on that. If there's one thing Russia still excels at, it's censorship. But Russia does struggle to adapt to the unexpected, and i reckon they are intransigent in the outlook. I think history bears that out if you look at the early days of Operation Barbarossa and Afghanistan.

I wonder how moot local intelligence is between Russia and Ukraine's friends in the US.

At the start Biden said he didn't want to provide Ukraine with accurate satellite information as he didn't feel it was a good idea to piss off the Russians too much. Then he changed after some of the atrocities and went all in. I would have to imagine that Ukraine is being fed accurate up to date satellite and signals intelligence and I have to imagine Russia is using similar resources. The downside being Russia is struggling to fight in the field and so information is limited to setting targets for artillery or aircraft.

I don't see that any of the youtube videos really affect anything as they only show what is happening. The big threat being what is about to happen. I have not seen any reports of that kind of intelligence leak, but again, both sides must have up to date photos showing most military build ups and staging areas etc.

[Libertine]

I am seeing way too much "progressive and liberal* support of the actions of Putin

These people might define themselves as left wing, but there is nothing remotely progressive or liberal about them, on this matter or many others.

[Red Beret]

I’d say you were derailing the wrong thread!

Now that's a gift!

[Libertine]

Mike Martin on Twitter provides very good tactical overviews of the current situation.

He's fairly bullish on Ukraine's prospects at this point.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1577760535415730176

[AndyInVA]

Mike Martin on Twitter provides very good tactical overviews of the current situation.

He's fairly bullish on Ukraine's prospects at this point.

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1577760535415730176

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1577033853180387328

interesting

[didi shamone]

What happened with that Stop the War fringe meeting at the Labour Party conference?

* A quick search turned up this example of utter shite:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/EWFUPEhgxiA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/EWFUPEhgxiA</a>Of course, there's this gem of insanity:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/uB4o5n2EGyA" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/uB4o5n2EGyA</a>Talking of that...

Here we go. Corbyn parses his words, but it is still de facto support for Putin. Putin and Russia are the aggressors, and they must be driven out. You cannot reason with Putin, else there would have been no invasion in the first place. Putin only understands strength; any display of weakness will be exploited by him. It is a transparent reality which lost upon some people.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/3y0AwwjiLps" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/3y0AwwjiLps</a>

That's way too much bullshit to disect  in one helping. Dear Atheist Jesus.

[KIFS]

Curious, has the Kerch Bridge been left intact to allow an escape route for RU when the Ukrainians start to push into Crimea or is there another reason?

[Lusty]

Curious, has the Kerch Bridge been left intact to allow an escape route for RU when the Ukrainians start to push into Crimea or is there another reason?

I don't think they can reach it yet anyway. They'd need to reach the Azov sea to bring it into range.

If they do want to liberate Crimea though they'll probably want to leave it a line of withdrawal.

[.adam]

A question - will the winter bring combat to a halt on both sides? Presumably it is more likely to favour the side digging in (Russia) rather than the side making advances (Ukraine)?

I'm wondering whether Putin's plan is to weather the storm for now, assume that winter will put things on hold and then send mass reinforcements in the spring. There is, of course, the question of the quality of the reinforcements but the point remains.

[So… Howard Philips]

A question - will the winter bring combat to a halt on both sides? Presumably it is more likely to favour the side digging in (Russia) rather than the side making advances (Ukraine)?

I'm wondering whether Putin's plan is to weather the storm for now, assume that winter will put things on hold and then send mass reinforcements in the spring. There is, of course, the question of the quality of the reinforcements but the point remains.

The way Russian logistics has performed so far they’ll struggle to feed the extra 300,000 troops.

Mind you with all their excess gas supplies the Russians should at least be able to kept them warm and toasty.

[Red Beret]

I don't think they can reach it yet anyway. They'd need to reach the Azov sea to bring it into range.

If they do want to liberate Crimea though they'll probably want to leave it a line of withdrawal.

If anything, Russia will want to blow it up to stop Ukraine chasing after them.

On the subject of winter, I guess Ukraine is trying to make as much progress as possible before the weather gets too bad. I doubt the new Russian recruits will be available before spring, but their troops on the front line will feel very isolated this winter.

[rafathegaffa83]

The guys a c*nt. I expect someone who points out the deficiencies in his grandstanding 'ideas' is gonna get called a paedophile again, he isn't very good at handling scrutiny

Amazingly he's doubled down and has subsequently been embarrassingly shown up

https://twitter.com/BudgetBen/status/1577840809789063168?cxt=HHwWgIC8uer2zuUrAAAA

[AndyMuller]

He is a fucking gobshite weirdo.

[Red Beret]

I saw a snippet (on Seth Meyer's show of all places) suggesting that the nuclear materials being loaded onto a train in Russia are going to be part of a weapons "test" right on the Russia/Ukraine border.

No idea if that's accurate, or if it's going to be an above/below ground test, but what are the odds there is some kind of "accident" during this "test" that leads to some major damage in Ukraine? 

[Jiminy Cricket]

He is a fucking gobshite weirdo.

You are being way too kind.

[RJH]

Amazingly he's doubled down and has subsequently been embarrassingly shown up

https://twitter.com/BudgetBen/status/1577840809789063168?cxt=HHwWgIC8uer2zuUrAAAA

It's almost as if something happened in between 2012 and 2019 that might have turned a significant number of pro-Russian Ukrainians against Russia.

[Stockholm Syndrome]

He is a fucking gobshite weirdo.

He's a dickhead who used Daddy's Apartheid money to get a hair transplant and then buy a company that he then declared he invented, and now works to become some sort of philosopher tech king with his army of weirdo alt right dorks

[KillieRed]

He's a dickhead who used Daddy's Apartheid money to get a hair transplant and then buy a company that he then declared he invented, and now works to become some sort of philosopher tech king with his army of weirdo alt right dorks

Is the correct answer.

He’s another guy like Trump whose fanboys somehow think are self-made business geniuses.

[Ray K]

Timothy Snyder has a long and detailed piece on the state of play and the endgame in his substack.

And so we can see a plausible scenario for how this war ends.  War is a form of politics, and the Russian regime is altered by defeat.  As Ukraine continues to win battles, one reversal is accompanied by another: the televisual yields to the real, and the Ukrainian campaign yields to a struggle for power in Russia.  In such a struggle, it makes no sense to have armed allies far away in Ukraine who might be more usefully deployed in Russia: not necessarily in an armed conflict, although this cannot be ruled out entirely, but to deter others and protect oneself.  For all of the actors concerned, it might be bad to lose in Ukraine, but it is worse to lose in Russia.

The logic of the situation favors he who realizes this most quickly, and is able to control and redeploy.  Once the cascade begins, it quickly makes no sense for anyone to have any Russian forces in Ukraine at all.  Again, from this it does not necessarily follow that there will be armed clashes in Russia: it is just that, as the instability created by the war in Ukraine comes home, Russian leaders who wish to gain from that instability, or protect themselves from it, will want their power centers close to Moscow.  And this, of course, would be a very good thing, for Ukraine and for the world.

If this is what is coming, Putin will need no excuse to pull out from Ukraine, since he will be doing so for his own political survival.  For all of his personal attachment to his odd ideas about Ukraine, I take it that he is more attached to power.  If the scenario I describe here unfolds, we don't have to worry about the kinds of things we tend to worry about, like how Putin is feeling about the war, and whether Russians will be upset about losing.  During an internal struggle for power in Russia, Putin and other Russians will have other things on their minds, and the war will give way to those more pressing concerns.  Sometimes you change the subject, and sometimes the subject changes you.

Of course, all of this remains very hard to predict, especially at any level of detail. Other outcomes are entirely possible. But the line of development I discuss here is not only far better, but also far more likely, than the doomsday scenarios we fear. It is thus worth considering, and worth preparing for.

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-does-the-russo-ukrainian-war?utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=auto_share