Author Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!  (Read 615289 times)

Offline 24/Swans-a-7ing

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Lol ok then.

Samuel Ramani
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Russian media is talking about withdrawing recognition of Lithuania as a country

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1524722899231379456
You laugh - but that's the next logical step ahead of justifying invasion mate. Unilaterally not recognising the sovereignty of a nation gives the Russians carte-blanche to waltz in and claim it, their logic being you can't invade a sovereign state that doesn't exist. Moronic logic but that's that. Oh plus it will allow them to join up Kaliningrad again - Latvia wouldn't be able to do much about it.....
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Offline Yosser0_0

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You laugh - but that's the next logical step ahead of justifying invasion mate. Unilaterally not recognising the sovereignty of a nation gives the Russians carte-blanche to waltz in and claim it, their logic being you can't invade a sovereign state that doesn't exist. Moronic logic but that's that. Oh plus it will allow them to join up Kaliningrad again - Latvia wouldn't be able to do much about it.....


Lithuania and Latvia are in NATO, wouldn't an invasion trigger article 5? I belive both countries have already activated article 4, along with six other members, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
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Lithuania and Latvia are in NATO, wouldn't an invasion trigger article 5? I belive both countries have already activated article 4, along with six other members, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

I imagine that, even if the US hesitated, most of those countries would be only too happy to pile in on Russia if they invade any of the Baltic states. But given the current mess the Russian military is in, could Putin even chance opening another front?

Let's hope Putin doesn't have some crazy kind of dead man's switch, where he's pre-ordered a nuclear strike in the event he dies during his surgery. There seems to be enough lunatics in his government who might just carry the order out. :(
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Offline 24/Swans-a-7ing

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Lithuania and Latvia are in NATO, wouldn't an invasion trigger article 5? I belive both countries have already activated article 4, along with six other members, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.
IF it happens, it's one of the logical first places for it to do so, our place being another (cross the river, take out Narva, split the east in two, like they're doing in Ukraine). And yes, it would trigger Article 5....but Russia is not exactly playing things by the book, they're now redrawing the map. They're risking going full mental...


My close friend in Kaunas says 25% of Lithuania is armed, with licensed weapons, trained and ready to use them.....
« Last Edit: May 12, 2022, 10:05:17 pm by 24∗7 »
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Offline ToneLa

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Absolutely pointless hollow gesture but I've put up a Ukraine flag out my top window until this situation is resolved

Prepared for it to be ages. No skin off my nose

Whatever. Don't thank me or anything it's nothing relevant or interesting I just felt I tangibly wanted to show how I felt about this illegal war rather than sit stunned gaping at Euronews (not that I've stopped that)

Offline bigbonedrawky

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Let's hope Putin doesn't have some crazy kind of dead man's switch, where he's pre-ordered a nuclear strike in the event he dies during his surgery. There seems to be enough lunatics in his government who might just carry the order out. :(
While I doubt that ( Maybe just optimism ) a dead mans switch doesn't require anyone to carry out the order, hence the expression. Fairly sure they have one in Sevastapol though. (Bomb not missile  )
Alledgedly if our Nucular Subs cant receive BBC radio... Then Moscow gets fucked.
Whether thats an argument for or against the Licence fee I'm not sure  ;)

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While I doubt that ( Maybe just optimism ) a dead mans switch doesn't require anyone to carry out the order, hence the expression. Fairly sure they have one in Sevastapol though. (Bomb not missile  )
Alledgedly if our Nucular Subs cant receive BBC radio... Then Moscow gets fucked.
Whether thats an argument for or against the Licence fee I'm not sure  ;)

Well obviously I meant a verbal order with a close confidant, like mayhap the nutjob who will be taking temporary charge, but point taken. :thumbup

And I don't have a license  ;D
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Offline bornandbRED

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Crazy seeing some of the images of the river battle earlier (numerous ruined Russian tanks, and 5 failed attempts at crossing). What goes through these soldiers heads at times of battle? Can understand the Ukrainians as they’re defending, but as a Russian soldier you’re basically being sent to your death in droves daily, and your side might get a bit of territory in return. All in the name of an illegal invasion. What stops them from desertion? The propaganda must be huge.

Offline McSquared

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Crazy seeing some of the images of the river battle earlier (numerous ruined Russian tanks, and 5 failed attempts at crossing). What goes through these soldiers heads at times of battle? Can understand the Ukrainians as they’re defending, but as a Russian soldier you’re basically being sent to your death in droves daily, and your side might get a bit of territory in return. All in the name of an illegal invasion. What stops them from desertion? The propaganda must be huge.

Getting shot for desertion?

Offline Yorkykopite

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Crazy seeing some of the images of the river battle earlier (numerous ruined Russian tanks, and 5 failed attempts at crossing). What goes through these soldiers heads at times of battle? Can understand the Ukrainians as they’re defending, but as a Russian soldier you’re basically being sent to your death in droves daily, and your side might get a bit of territory in return. All in the name of an illegal invasion. What stops them from desertion? The propaganda must be huge.

Perhaps they are deserting. There were reports in the Guardian (I think) today of soldiers refusing to go to Ukraine.

The river crossing was a (very) faint echo of Stalingrad. Getting Russians across the Volga and into the ruins of the city was a nightmare - not least for the poor soldiers. They crossed to certain death out of patriotism, for sure, but also because there were 'blocking battalions' behind them, primed and ready to shoot any Red Army soldiers who fancied returning.
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Offline Famishing Xmas Pruned Prick Prude

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That Finland NATO news is massive

They should have joined way way earlier. I find it a bit ironic them wanting to join now. They were spending fuck all in defence, so no wonder their life standard was and still is one of the best in the world.

That said, i hope they join immediately, the cheeky bastards.
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Offline stara

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They were spending fuck all in defence

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FIN/finland/military-spending-defense-budget

Less than 0,3% than UK per GDP and more than Germany. Compared to USA, everybody spends fuck all  ;)
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Offline bigbonedrawky

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Well obviously I meant a verbal order with a close confidant, like mayhap the nutjob who will be taking temporary charge, but point taken. :thumbup

And I don't have a license  ;D
He could have a daily 'fail to log in' kind of trigger set up...That's the main worry
Since 2020 He's said he'd use them in response to a non nucular attack if Russian territory was invaded but beyond that as far as I know between them and the US they still have a no first strike policy.
By contrast In 2017 Theresa May said she'd use them as a first strike weapon, which was a break from the traditional no first-use policy and a serious error in judgement,if you ask me.   

Offline Sangria

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I imagine that, even if the US hesitated, most of those countries would be only too happy to pile in on Russia if they invade any of the Baltic states. But given the current mess the Russian military is in, could Putin even chance opening another front?

Let's hope Putin doesn't have some crazy kind of dead man's switch, where he's pre-ordered a nuclear strike in the event he dies during his surgery. There seems to be enough lunatics in his government who might just carry the order out. :(

When it comes down to it, it's down to the decisionmakers on the submarine. NATO were carrying out an operation against the Warsaw Pact, and there was a Soviet sub who lost contact with all command avenues, and accordingly was supposed to launch its missiles. There were 3 decisionmakers on board, and there was a 2-1 vote against launching. They regained contact with command, and it turned out NATO were doing exercises. As a result of that, NATO informed Moscow whenever and wherever they were doing exercises, so as to avoid mistakes in the future.
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Offline Yorkykopite

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Offline west_london_red

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Vladimir Putin’s ‘bloated’ face is ‘too big for body’ sparking rumours of cover-up

https://apple.news/AzTN0Rvo3SaOiQ-Y4kE4ADw

The article is nothing special, was more struck by the picture at the very top of the article, he looks like one of those welterweight boxers with the disproportionately small body/big head. No idea what he has, but he definitely doesn’t look right.
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Offline CharityChristmasMooseMousse

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There is also one alleged recording of a friend/oligarch who said he has blood cancer. And that he wants to make it hard for the next person who leads Russia because that would apparently make people think that his governance was the golden era of the Russian federation.

There are dozens of lonks on google since last evening about this. They all report the same source.

Offline IgorBobbins

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There is also one alleged recording of a friend/oligarch who said he has blood cancer. And that he wants to make it hard for the next person who leads Russia because that would apparently make people think that his governance was the golden era of the Russian federation.
A bit like what Fergie did when he lined up Moyes to replace him  :D

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There is also one alleged recording of a friend/oligarch who said he has blood cancer. And that he wants to make it hard for the next person who leads Russia because that would apparently make people think that his governance was the golden era of the Russian federation.

There are dozens of lonks on google since last evening about this. They all report the same source.

So like Ferguson anointing Moyes as his successor? :D

Offline CharityChristmasMooseMousse

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Russian operator to suspend electricity supply to Finland

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61442432

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Russian energy supplier RAO Nordic says it will suspend deliveries of electricity to Finland from Saturday, citing problems with payments.

The company said it had not been paid for previous deliveries.

The Finnish grid operator said Russia provided only a small percentage of the country's electricity and that it could be replaced from alternative sources.

On Thursday, Russia threatened to take "retaliatory steps" after Finland said it planned to join Nato.

Finland shares a 1,300-km (810-mile) border with Russia, and has previously stayed out of Nato to avoid antagonising its eastern neighbour. However, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine there has been a surge in public support for Nato membership.

On Sunday Finland is expected to formally announce its plan to join.

The decision by Rao Nordic has not been explicitly tied to Finland's decision.

The Russian state-owned firm said: "This situation is exceptional and happened for the first time in over twenty years of our trading history".

Neither Rao Nordic nor the grid operator in Finland, Fingrid, explained what was behind the payment difficulties.

Last month Russia cut supplies of gas to Bulgaria and Poland after they refused to comply with a demand to pay in roubles, a change they said would contravene western sanctions.

This week Russia's Gazprom announced it would stop supplying gas via the Polish part of the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

Fingrid said it did not expect electricity shortages as a result of the shut off, as only around 10% of Finland's electricity is supplied from Russia.

"The lack of electricity import from Russia will be compensated by importing more electricity from Sweden and by generating more electricity in Finland," said Reima Päivinen, senior vice president of power system operations at Fingrid.

Demand is also decreasing as the weather gets warmer, while a significant amount of extra wind power generation is expected to come on stream. A new nuclear power station, expected to open this summer, would more than make up for the lost supplies from Russia, Fingrid added.

Offline CharityChristmasMooseMousse

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A bit like what Fergie did when he lined up Moyes to replace him  :D

So like Ferguson anointing Moyes as his successor? :D

Hahahhaa I admit it did cross my mind when I read it.

Offline 24/Swans-a-7ing

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Dynamo Kyiv came to Tallinn last night to play a fundraiser as part of their "Match For Peace tour. The local team, FC Flora, had a special banner to show, which was very, very, very well received :lmao

No pyro, no party......

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This bloke seems confident.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/14/russia-ukraine-war-ukrainian-forces-continue-kharkiv-pushback-difficult-negotiations-on-mariupol-evacuations-underway-zelenskiy-says-live?filterKeyEvents=false&page=with:block-627f44758f083b856379a5ea#block-627f44758f083b856379a5ea

Hope he's correct.

There's probably a lot of bravado in that statement, but it will be interesting (in a terrifying kind of way) to see Russia's reaction if there's any attempt by Ukraine to retake Crimea. If the Russian military is as exhausted by that point as this guy claims it will be, that leaves Putin's list of retaliatory measures as awfully short.
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Offline Bend It Like Aurelio

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This video is pretty much the most intense combat footage I've ever seen, it's akin to what I've read about WW2 in history books.

Can't imagine being there in person without browning my pants.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1525556432959070208?s=21&t=532iVqGkOLLJsBBNiuyXzw

Not gory, so safe to watch.

Offline Bend It Like Aurelio

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https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/FIN/finland/military-spending-defense-budget

Less than 0,3% than UK per GDP and more than Germany. Compared to USA, everybody spends fuck all  ;)


Finland should be well above 2% in the next few years. It's ordered 65 F-35's, which is twice as big as the German order earlier this year. The USA can sustain such a big expenditure of their defense because it directly increases their GDP as well.

Offline Sangria

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This video is pretty much the most intense combat footage I've ever seen, it's akin to what I've read about WW2 in history books.

Can't imagine being there in person without browning my pants.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1525556432959070208?s=21&t=532iVqGkOLLJsBBNiuyXzw

Not gory, so safe to watch.

Near hit from grenade. Ok, reposition camera before replying with grenade of your own.

Makes me think again about readjusting the camera during Teams meetings.
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They should have joined way way earlier. I find it a bit ironic them wanting to join now. They were spending fuck all in defence, so no wonder their life standard was and still is one of the best in the world.

That said, i hope they join immediately, the cheeky bastards.
I don't know if it's true but a TV commentator last week said Finlands defensive wall at the Russian border is like a fortress, all designed to let the Russians know they will up against a well dug in force. they did the same in WW2, battered the first Russian invasion, Russia had to bring an overwhelming force to crack them open.
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It's hard to say whether modern warfare favours defence over attack, as much depends on the belligerents, but it is fair to say that the days where you could simply overwhelm defences with cannon fodder and sheer numbers are long gone.

A quick google search says that the Russian army is a million strong, with another two millions reserves. But they won't all be soldiers; and of those who are, a fair chunk will be conscripts rather than professional soldiers.

Oryx puts Russia's MBT losses alone at more than 670 confirmed kills.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

I don't know how reliable this information is but they claim to use photographic and video evidence to determine losses. If accurate, then surely those are unsustainable losses? 

Based on that, the conclusion is that Russia is incapable of fighting a multi-front conventional war. Every other nation that might be considered a target knows they're a potential target; by the time Russia can turn it's attention to the Baltics, or Finland, or Poland or wherever else, they'll all be ready for them.
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Offline Indomitable_Carp

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This video is pretty much the most intense combat footage I've ever seen, it's akin to what I've read about WW2 in history books.

Can't imagine being there in person without browning my pants.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/status/1525556432959070208?s=21&t=532iVqGkOLLJsBBNiuyXzw

Not gory, so safe to watch.

Cool as a cucumber those two fellas.

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Finland should be well above 2% in the next few years. It's ordered 65 F-35's, which is twice as big as the German order earlier this year. The USA can sustain such a big expenditure of their defense because it directly increases their GDP as well.

The US has also done an amazing job of commercialising what is originally military technology, the history of Silicone Valley was originally as a hub for military technology, that technology and people then moved into civilian technology.
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Offline Sangria

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The US has also done an amazing job of commercialising what is originally military technology, the history of Silicone Valley was originally as a hub for military technology, that technology and people then moved into civilian technology.

And that unbreakable communications network designed to survive a nuclear holocaust.
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Oryx puts Russia's MBT losses alone at more than 670 confirmed kills.


Just gives truth to the lie that Russia is threatened by Nato.
They've lost a large part of their armour, thousands of ordinary soldiers killed, irreplaceable elite units wiped out, Generals killed, and must be running pretty low on missiles.

Doesn't seem like a good idea to sacrifice all that on securing Donbas, when you've hundreds of miles of border to defend against invasion from the West.
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They've lost a large part of their armour, thousands of ordinary soldiers killed, irreplaceable elite units wiped out, Generals killed, and must be running pretty low on missiles.

Doesn't seem like a good idea to sacrifice all that on securing Donbas, when you've hundreds of miles of border to defend against invasion from the West.

Whats to say that Ukraine pushes back on Crimea as well?

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By Putin`s rationale if NATO was so threatened by Russia they would have invaded already to neutralise that threat.
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Whats to say that Ukraine pushes back on Crimea as well?

Well Ukraine are saying they plan to take it back. I guess we'll see if that's Putin's red line on WMD. With chemical weapons, he could probably make the entire region uninhabitable for 50 years at least.
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Just gives truth to the lie that Russia is threatened by Nato.
They've lost a large part of their armour, thousands of ordinary soldiers killed, irreplaceable elite units wiped out, Generals killed, and must be running pretty low on missiles.

Doesn't seem like a good idea to sacrifice all that on securing Donbas, when you've hundreds of miles of border to defend against invasion from the West.

The Russians forever spout nonsense about Western aggression and Western neo-imperialism etc etc while basing their actual plans on the valid assumption that NATO is a defensive alliance which plays by the rules. 
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Offline CharityChristmasMooseMousse

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Well Ukraine are saying they plan to take it back. I guess we'll see if that's Putin's red line on WMD. With chemical weapons, he could probably make the entire region uninhabitable for 50 years at least.

Thats good to hear that they plan on taking it back.

Their progress has been more or less stagnant throughout the eastern front for two or three weeks.  They are literally donating machinery and weaponary by the hundreds to the Ukrainian forces on an everyday level. And their own supplies are running out with replenishments neither quick nor effective. Their main tank manufacturer apparently has stalled the production because of supply chain issues. Their missile manufacturer cannot produce more than his rate of depletion and will soon hit supply chain problems. Nearly 30% of his intended troops in Ukraine are either dead or injured. His top commanders are either fired or injured or sent to the gulag.

On top of this Finland and Sweden.

But its interesting that Putin intends on using WMDs and/or chemical weapons there. His back is against the wall. The second he uses them, he knows Russia is gone. The entire NATO will get involved plus other so-called allies will start questioning their commitment to Russia. That would mean a double suicide - militarily and economically.

Offline CharityChristmasMooseMousse

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Also this is massive.





Quote
Ukraine says that troops that have been counter-attacking near the north-eastern city of Kharkiv have reached the Russian border.

Flashing "V" signs for victory, and gathered round a makeshift blue- and-yellow border post, the soldiers addressed President Zelensky.

"We are here! We are at the border!" they say.

It's a symbolic moment, and a morale boost. But despite successes of this counter-offensive, the city of Kharkiv itself is not out of danger.

Russian shelling, though reduced, does continue - several people were injured overnight in the latest attacks.

And Ukraine is not yet in a position to threaten Russian supply lines that lie further east. Meanwhile fierce battles continue in Luhansk and other parts of Donbas.