Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23  (Read 18842 times)

Offline Prof

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The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« on: July 26, 2022, 11:43:10 am »
The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23

This is a continuation of the last eleven APLT threads which ran over the last eleven seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191
2018-19 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340730
2019-20 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=343471
2020-21 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=345980
2021-22 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=349054

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the featured teams indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.



Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.



The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

« Last Edit: July 31, 2022, 11:29:12 am by Prof »

Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2022, 12:07:36 pm »
Yes, Prof!!!  Best thread on the site right here.  Looking forward to following along again this season. 

Offline JCB

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #2 on: July 26, 2022, 12:48:38 pm »
Hi Prof,

Heads up, something wrong with the City fixture on week 27. Apparently both us and Spurs are playing them whereas they play Palace.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #3 on: July 26, 2022, 03:27:11 pm »
Hi Prof,

Heads up, something wrong with the City fixture on week 27. Apparently both us and Spurs are playing them whereas they play Palace.
Ah, thanks

There are probably other errors in there too if anyone can see them, shout up.

I'll fix when I have access to a PC of some sort

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #4 on: July 26, 2022, 03:34:00 pm »
Ah, thanks

There are probably other errors in there too if anyone can see them, shout up.

I'll fix when I have access to a PC of some sort
I've just had a look at the file on my phone.  The formulae on the fixtures sheet got jumbled when the order changed last season and I didn't fix it.  There are loads of errors so I'll get onto it ASAP and repost the list.

Sorry for the false start

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #5 on: July 26, 2022, 04:38:48 pm »
I'm hoping these are correct now:



If anyone sees any errors, can you let me know please

(Updated after Brian's spot)
« Last Edit: July 31, 2022, 11:30:24 am by Prof »

Offline mercurial

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2022, 06:44:30 pm »
Should the title criteria move up. What about making it one team less that is drop points only against 5 instead of 6 teams? 91 points after last 4 seasons maybe too low.😁

The 71 pt line and criteria is fine. Maybe this season it will be competitive and the winner can win with 91 points but the trend is that you need 95 or more to win.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #7 on: July 26, 2022, 11:39:43 pm »
As ever a request that Everton be included on the graph just so we can see the line vanish off the bottom of the image after a few weeks.

(I'm not really being serious ;D )
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Offline Brian Blessed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #8 on: July 30, 2022, 07:22:12 pm »
I'm hoping these are correct now:



If anyone sees any errors, can you let me know please

In the spurs column, both Arsenal games are highlighted as one pointers.

But it is Spurs, so maybe that’s on purpose, Prof :)

Looks like Palace away is what it should be instead.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #9 on: July 31, 2022, 11:31:29 am »
In the spurs column, both Arsenal games are highlighted as one pointers.

But it is Spurs, so maybe that’s on purpose, Prof :)

Looks like Palace away is what it should be instead.

Thanks - another formula error I didn't update  ;D

Hopefully all correct now

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #10 on: August 5, 2022, 06:22:49 pm »
Thanks for starting the thread as also Prof, always the best thread on RAWK IMO.

For my contribution, here is a reminder of the final form graph from last season which I'll be continuing on into this season.  No Leicester this time though, back to the more traditional 'big 6':



Quote
This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top).  The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 13 points from our last 5 games, 13 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc

Offline Dr Stu-Pid

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #11 on: August 5, 2022, 06:29:50 pm »
And as an added bonus, here is the update to the 10 year 38 game average graph that I have posted before:


Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #12 on: August 7, 2022, 09:20:33 pm »
And as an added bonus, here is the update to the 10 year 38 game average graph that I have posted before:


I love this graph.  Such a great visual of performance over time.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #13 on: August 8, 2022, 01:38:44 pm »

Offline BoRed

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #14 on: August 8, 2022, 09:49:47 pm »
At least we're not last. ;D

Offline moloch

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #15 on: August 9, 2022, 02:56:01 pm »
Giving +4 to City in the first game of the season is a wee bit frustrating.

Offline johnny74

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #16 on: August 9, 2022, 08:14:53 pm »
Should the title criteria move up. What about making it one team less that is drop points only against 5 instead of 6 teams? 91 points after last 4 seasons maybe too low.😁

The 71 pt line and criteria is fine. Maybe this season it will be competitive and the winner can win with 91 points but the trend is that you need 95 or more to win.

Things are going back to normal again now. Competition is much tougher this season than last which was tougher than the previous one.

Apart from City you could probably toss a coin for who gets in the top 4.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #17 on: August 10, 2022, 12:10:26 pm »
Giving +4 to City in the first game of the season is a wee bit frustrating.
Yep.
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Offline courty61

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2022, 08:18:48 am »
Well a chance today to chip into that City lead
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2022, 12:03:20 pm »
Well a chance today to chip into that City lead

Its quite clear that won't be happening. At least we got to dream for today, but dropped points are inevitable.

Offline Black Bull Nova

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2022, 12:51:13 pm »
Nice to see United remaining in this analysis despite the fact their are 19 better teams in the PL
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2022, 07:37:48 pm »





Offline Hij

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #22 on: August 26, 2022, 01:35:19 pm »
:(
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #23 on: August 26, 2022, 11:18:47 pm »
I had a feeling of dread while opening this thread for the first time this season. Yup, I was right.  ::)

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #24 on: August 30, 2022, 09:56:11 pm »





Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #25 on: September 1, 2022, 10:32:16 pm »





Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #26 on: September 5, 2022, 09:21:21 pm »





Offline courty61

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #27 on: September 6, 2022, 09:34:15 am »
Urgh. These aren't fun so far this season
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #28 on: September 7, 2022, 09:39:03 pm »
Thanks as ever Prof. The Andy Carroll in the room is what happens if we dip out of the top 6, you’ll still keep a line in us for us won’t you?!

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #29 on: September 10, 2022, 09:23:20 am »
Thanks as ever Prof. The Andy Carroll in the room is what happens if we dip out of the top 6, you’ll still keep a line in us for us won’t you?!
Of course

Look back at some of the aplt I maintained during the darker days and it'll make our current situation look a lot better  ;D

We have a special team that's just a bit out of form.  Our style of play is very unforgiving to small drops in performance, especially on the defensive side of the game, but we have an extremely high ceiling in terms of what our style can achieve.  I'd take this over any alternative.  We'll talk about this side for the rest of our lives and smile uncontrollably.

Sometimes it takes a bad run for us to realise just how good we've been and appreciate the good when it comes back.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #30 on: October 3, 2022, 04:39:46 pm »





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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #31 on: October 3, 2022, 04:44:01 pm »
Can we not restart this game? It's going shit
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Offline Penfold78

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #32 on: October 8, 2022, 07:52:54 pm »
Part of the anti growth coalition are we Prof?

Thanks btw, expecting us to be top 4 by April.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #33 on: October 13, 2022, 03:41:35 pm »
Can we not restart this game? It's going shit

Anybody have a decent save somewhere?
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #34 on: October 17, 2022, 08:28:09 pm »





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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #35 on: October 17, 2022, 08:40:58 pm »
No one is talking about Spurs. This is Conte. He has form. If anything happens to Haaland they can win this.

Offline s_andrews89

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #36 on: October 17, 2022, 10:46:43 pm »
No one is talking about Spurs. This is Conte. He has form. If anything happens to Haaland they can win this.

They *can*. They won't.

Offline sminp

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #37 on: October 18, 2022, 10:15:45 am »
No one is talking about Spurs. This is Conte. He has form. If anything happens to Haaland they can win this.

It’s Spurs, them doing a Spurs is football heritage.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2022, 02:48:02 pm »





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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2022-23
« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2022, 02:49:36 pm »
Beyond grim.