Topic: The PL run-in

[rob1966]

We've got 48 points with 48 to play for which is good in a normal season, the problem is the standards City have set in the last 5 years where they haven't had so much as a bad run of form.

That week where we lost to Leicester and they won in the last minute at Arsenal has cost us dear. If those results flip then we're still neck and neck.

We've played the majority of our tricky away games now, bar City where we'll need to win, or at least get a result.

As it stands, it's in our hands to take it to the last day at least. Win our game in hand and win at City and we're 3 behind them, goal difference neck and neck.

We don't play them until 9th April. They have Spurs, Utd and Brighton at home and away to the Bitters, Palace and Burnley before we play them, I reckon they will drop at least 5 pts in that run

[alonsoisared]

We did win 6 in a row before Spurs and were starting to get on a roll. Covid and the officials killed us that day.

I don't think we'll have big winning sequences but on average for every 5 games we need to win 4 to at least stay thereabouts.

We do need to cut out the sloppiness at the back. City have been more effective in closing out games. When they score first, they win.

we were very unlucky in that spurs game but at the same time it's another game where we took the lead and only came away with a point. In the second half, too. Same against City, Brentford, Brighton etc. The year we won it we never looked like dropping points after getting ahead...I know we can't always be as good as we were that year but that is the standard to reach if we want to win it again. At the moment any time we come under pressure we concede. If we could've tightened things up in just a couple of those games I mentioned we'd be neck and neck. As you say, City have been far more solid after scoring first.

It's minor adjustments. All it takes is a bit of luck to go against them and for us to tweak our defensive shape and the gap is nothing. On the balance of the season so far you'd have to say though that it's them who are playing like champions which is frustrating when you look at what we are capable of when we're playing our best.

[wige]

Yep, a few doors to smash down until we reach the one they've left marginally ajar.

One door partially smashed down and then kinda stumbled through because we were fucking knackered from a midweek night out. Now time to recover, rest up and take a sledgehammer to the next one. City a few rooms ahead and we still need them to get lost in a corridor or something.

I'm sticking with this analogy until the death.

[Fromola]

we were very unlucky in that spurs game but at the same time it's another game where we took the lead and only came away with a point. In the second half, too. Same against City, Brentford, Brighton etc. The year we won it we never looked like dropping points after getting ahead...I know we can't always be as good as we were that year but that is the standard to reach if we want to win it again. At the moment any time we come under pressure we concede. If we could've tightened things up in just a couple of those games I mentioned we'd be neck and neck. As you say, City have been far more solid after scoring first.

It's minor adjustments. All it takes is a bit of luck to go against them and for us to tweak our defensive shape and the gap is nothing. On the balance of the season so far you'd have to say though that it's them who are playing like champions which is frustrating when you look at what we are capable of when we're playing our best.

We're a lot better to watch, much more exciting games than them, but like us in 19/20 they do enough to win most of the time, like the 12 on the bounce. We've had too many high scoring thrillers which have pleased the TV cameras (Spurs/Chelsea/Brighton/City) but we've thrown the lead away and not managed the game. They're the ones dogging out the 1-0s.

[Machae]

City been fortunate in a lot of games, getting a win either through referee being utterly shit or undeserved. Off the top of my head, they were lucky against Wolves, Chelsea and Arsenal very recently

Liverpool on the other hand, should have closed out games against Brighton, Chelsea and should have got something from Leicester

Their good fortune can't continue, we just have to be ready to take advantage

[darragh85]

lets just keep the pressure on. who knows what could happen. 

[Crosby Nick]

Ambassador Richards isn’t happy anyway. Hopefully an insight into all at the club’s mental state.

[killer-heels]

City been fortunate in a lot of games, getting a win either through referee being utterly shit or undeserved. Off the top of my head, they were lucky against Wolves, Chelsea and Arsenal very recently

Liverpool on the other hand, should have closed out games against Brighton, Chelsea and should have got something from Leicester

Their good fortune can't continue, we just have to be ready to take advantage

City got fortunate in that the run of games in the toughest part of the season (Dec - start of Jan) was really comfortable I mentioned as much at the start of that run, and I was worried about that Spurs-Chelsea-Leeds-Leicester run we had.

Having said that though we have to acknowledge that City navigated a very tough start to the season very well where they went away to us, Chelsea, United, Leicester, Spurs etc.

They still are massive favourites and I still fully believe they will win the league. As much as they have tough games left, we have many tough games as them to navigate with an effective 6 point deficit. That said, I have maintained that we shouldnt be even thinking of things like resting players or taking our foot off the gas.

[harleydanger]

Quad is on, that’s all I know.

City can’t say that.

[LallanaInPyjamas]

I don't think we'll have big winning sequences but on average for every 5 games we need to win 4 to at least stay thereabouts.

I think we'd have to win every single game to win the league.

[west_london_red]

I think we'd have to win every single game to win the league.

Yeah, and I can’t see that happening, but with the gaps potentially being such in the league that we can’t catch City but no one is going to be able to catch us we can then start resting and rotating and focus on the Champions League.

[Knight]

I think we'd have to win every single game to win the league.

We definitely need to go on a run. I’ve said a few times that the team who wins 10 in a row first will win the league. City did that already and they’ll win the league. But if we won our next 8, because we’ve already won 2 on the spin, we’d have a real chance. The 10th in that sequence is against City. If we do that I suspect we’ll be right up there with them. After that I’m not sure we’ll need to be perfect but we will need to be very close to it. The pressure will definitely be on them if we came out of that game at the Emptyhad within touching distance. The narrative would be about City blowing a massive lead.

[harleydanger]

I think we'd have to win every single game to win the league.

No.

It’s basically 6 points, and we play them, with 15 games to play. City are just as capable of having a horror few weeks, especially when the CL comes back and Pep does his own head in again.

[MonsLibpool]

No.

It’s basically 6 points, and we play them, with 15 games to play. City are just as capable of having a horror few weeks, especially when the CL comes back and Pep does his own head in again.

It's a 2-game gap with 15 to play and we'll go to their place. They have a small squad and don't have a lethal striker. They'll also prioritize the Champions League.

It's not that big but we have to learn how to see games out like them and Chelsea because our attack is strong enough to win every game.

[rob1966]

We definitely need to go on a run. I’ve said a few times that the team who wins 10 in a row first will win the league. City did that already and they’ll win the league. But if we won our next 8, because we’ve already won 2 on the spin, we’d have a real chance. The 10th in that sequence is against City. If we do that I suspect we’ll be right up there with them. After that I’m not sure we’ll need to be perfect but we will need to be very close to it. The pressure will definitely be on them if we came out of that game at the Emptyhad within touching distance. The narrative would be about City blowing a massive lead.

The city game isn't until April, we could be looking at being level on points or above them when we play them.

[Keith Lard]

One door partially smashed down and then kinda stumbled through because we were fucking knackered from a midweek night out. Now time to recover, rest up and take a sledgehammer to the next one. City a few rooms ahead and we still need them to get lost in a corridor or something.

I'm sticking with this analogy until the death.

I’d hate to live with you. House would be a mess

[redk84]

oh this old chestnut of a thread..

to be honest I thought we were pretty much out of it a couple weeks ago, didn't think City would drop enough points or we'd be consistently good enough.

But end of Jan is always a time I bookmark in my head every season, anything more than 6 points and you'd think its a bit tough.
What do you know we're 6 points off the top if we win our game in hand!
So we'll see....odds against us still but just gotta keep the pressure up, game at a time etc.

[wige]

The city game isn't until April, we could be looking at being level on points or above them when we play them.

Here are each team's fixtures up to our game. Note the LC final means we go back having 2 games in hand (if we haven't played the other by then). The squeezing of fixtures into our schedule (and, currently, not theirs) is another factor. Spurs at home and Palace away for them after CL ties are the two tricky ones I think, Brentford won't be a stroll in the park either, but I think they'll have too much for the Bees.

On our side, that Burnley away fixture 2.5 days after Leicester and roughly 3 before Inter doesn't look pleasant. Brighton away doesn't fill me with joy either. Having watched them a fair few times this season I think they're playing like a top 4 side. They've been miles better than anything I've consistently seen from Spurs, Arsenal and United. They just lack a striker. United at Home whilst I'd hope will follow a similar path to the away game, is United at Home. Never been an easy win in recent years. That said, it has been a win more frequently than not.

With the extra game in hand developing I think it's gonna take a borderline miracle for us to be level or ahead going into our fixture. I'm just not sure seeing any great chances for City to drop more points than us in that run. That is the crux of this. They've got all their really tough fixtures out of the way - Anfield, S Bridge, Old T, Emirates, Spurs, even Brighton. All done.

Personally I reckon if this particular league campaign was played out from here 10 times, we win it once. Maybe, maybe, maybe twice. Regardless if we do or not, I think we all know it won't be for the lack of desire and effort from our boys.

Liverpool                                           City
6th Feb / Cardiff / H / FA Cup              5th Feb / Fulham / H / FA Cup
10th Feb / Leicester / H / PL                9th Feb / Brentford / H / PL
13th Feb / Burnley / A / PL                 12th Feb / Norwich / A / PL
16th Feb / Inter / A / CL                    15th Feb / Sporting / A / CL
19th Feb / Norwich / H / PL                 19th Feb / Spurs / H / PL
27th Feb / Chelsea / N / EFL Final        26th Feb / Everton / A / PL    (Liverpool +2 games in hand)
5th March / West Ham / H / PL             5th March / Utd / H / PL
8th March / Inter / H / CL                    9th March / Sporting / H / CL
12th March / Brighton / A / PL             12th March / Palace / A / PL
19th March / United / H / PL                19th March / Brighton / H / PL
2nd April / Watford / H / PL                 2nd April / Burnley / A / PL
    / CL QF /                                                / CL QF /

         9th April / City vs Liverpool

    / CL QF /                                                / CL QF /

* added in CL quarter finals

[G a r y]

I expect us to win every one of those games. We'll be top by the time we beat City

[jepovic]

What title do you think we're more likely to win, CL or PL?
I'd put my money on CL, although a betting company would probably say PL.

[wige]

What title do you think we're more likely to win, CL or PL?
I'd put my money on CL, although a betting company would probably say PL.

CL. By a fair margin.

[ScouserAtHeart]

What title do you think we're more likely to win, CL or PL?
I'd put my money on CL, although a betting company would probably say PL.

PL

[wige]

I expect us to win every one of those games. We'll be top by the time we beat City

I would as well in isolation, but they're not isolated and there will be wildcards in the form of missed fixtures needing replaying and, hopefully, further CL and FA cup fixtures.

The CL quarters, for example, will be the midweek game directly prior to, and directly after that City game. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%9321_UEFA_Champions_League_knockout_phase.  Who each team draws and whether they're in the draw will be a huge factor affecting that game.

Injuries, suspensions etc etc. Plus the ever changing positions and situations of our opponents.

[thaddeus]

CL. By a fair margin.

Agreed.  The Premier League is very unforgiving and our six draws already look like being costly such is Man City's squad depth and ability to win week after week.  That's not to say it's over, Man City had a similar purple patch in the winter last season, then a relatively average spring.

As ever with cups we'd be relying on a degree of luck with the draws and hoping our main rivals (Bayern, PSG, Man City and Real) put each other out so we don't have to.  Across two legs though we are pretty formidable against almost any team and, apart from possibly Real, the top teams in Europe will stand toe to toe with us and that's always suited us under Klopp.

[-Willo-]

If we can be within 6 points of City come the Etihad game, all the pressure is on them really in a way.

Its definitely not over, but its very doubtful because City are just a machine.

[stonecold_jpm]

I’d expect at least one of our games in hand either Leeds or Arsenal to be played before City, probably even both with two free midweeks.

[stewy17]

Liverpool                                           City
6th Feb / Cardiff / H / FA Cup              5th Feb / Fulham / H / FA Cup
10th Feb / Leicester / H / PL                9th Feb / Brentford / H / PL
13th Feb / Burnley / A / PL                 12th Feb / Norwich / A / PL
16th Feb / Inter / A / CL                    15th Feb / Sporting / A / CL
19th Feb / Norwich / H / PL                 19th Feb / Spurs / H / PL
27th Feb / Chelsea / N / EFL Final        26th Feb / Everton / A / PL    (Liverpool +2 games in hand)
5th March / West Ham / H / PL             5th March / Utd / H / PL
8th March / Inter / H / CL                    9th March / Sporting / H / CL
12th March / Brighton / A / PL             12th March / Palace / A / PL
19th March / United / H / PL                19th March / Brighton / H / PL
2nd April / Watford / H / PL                 2nd April / Burnley / A / PL
    / CL QF /                                                / CL QF /

         9th April / City vs Liverpool

    / CL QF /                                                / CL QF /

* added in CL quarter finals

Listing the fixtures out like that has pretty much zapped my hopes after the optimism of City dropping points this weekend. I can't see them losing any of those games. We're already in need of snookers but we know that. We just have to really hope we can keep the pressure on them and capitalise (and win any games in hand) when the opportunity arises.

[Crosby Nick]

Listing the fixtures out like that has pretty much zapped my hopes after the optimism of City dropping points this weekend. I can't see them losing any of those games. We're already in need of snookers but we know that. We just have to really hope we can keep the pressure on them and capitalise (and win any games in hand) when the opportunity arises.

They don’t necessarily need to lose any. Just draw one or two more than us. If we win all our remaining games (unlikely I know) then at worst it goes to the final day. We just need them to have a couple of unexpected draws along the way, doesn’t need to happen in the next couple of games (and probably won’t looking at their fixtures).

What’s important is for us not to lose any momentum. If we drop points before they do it will release any pressure they may be feeling. If we can keep winning and they have another draw like Southampton in a game you’d expect them to win them it tightens a notch. That’s all we can do at this stage.

[MonsLibpool]

What title do you think we're more likely to win, CL or PL?
I'd put my money on CL, although a betting company would probably say PL.

Both

[MonsLibpool]

They don’t necessarily need to lose any. Just draw one or two more than us. If we win all our remaining games (unlikely I know) then at worst it goes to the final day. We just need them to have a couple of unexpected draws along the way, doesn’t need to happen in the next couple of games (and probably won’t looking at their fixtures).

What’s important is for us not to lose any momentum. If we drop points before they do it will release any pressure they may be feeling. If we can keep winning and they have another draw like Southampton in a game you’d expect them to win them it tightens a notch. That’s all we can do at this stage.

It sounds ridiculous but we can definitely win EVERY game from now till the end of the season because our attack scores more than enough goals and goals win games.

We could manage leads better to save our legs.

[lionel_messias]

It sounds ridiculous but we can definitely win EVERY game from now till the end of the season because our attack scores more than enough goals and goals win games.

We could manage leads better to save our legs.

Somehow keep both Thiago and Naby Keita fit and Klopp could solve that.

[reddebs]

What title do you think we're more likely to win, CL or PL?
I'd put my money on CL, although a betting company would probably say PL.

Both.

[wige]

Listing the fixtures out like that has pretty much zapped my hopes after the optimism of City dropping points this weekend. I can't see them losing any of those games. We're already in need of snookers but we know that. We just have to really hope we can keep the pressure on them and capitalise (and win any games in hand) when the opportunity arises.

Yeah I wouldn't be giving up yet. Whilst I think it's very unlikely we win the title from here, like a 9-1 or 10% chance, there is a chance.. Completely agree with Crosby Nick above - the key part is that they are the next to drop points. If that happens then pressure becomes more of a factor. We might even get to that stage where because of kick-off times we're level or a point/two behind on the same matchweek.

[MonsLibpool]

Somehow keep both Thiago and Naby Keita fit and Klopp could solve that.

Amen to that.

[Alan_X]

We still have a chance but we simply have to defend better as a team. Won't stick 8/9/10 wins in a row together like we need if we are so easy to play through/behind.

I do believe in this team, and I also can't see city winning another 12 in a row. We'll have chances to get right back in it but we can't afford to keep giving teams a sniff.

We conceded one goal yesterday. Of course we could make sure teams don't get a sniff by playing a low block defence and making sure Trent and Robertson don't cross the halfway line. Maybe have two defensive midifelders and play one striker up top...

Or we play the high risk strategy that won us the league and the European Cup. has us 2nd in the league, in a cup final and still in the FA Cup and CL. We rely on the recovery speed of our centre backs, a monster of a defensive midfielder and the brilliance of our goalkeeper. There will be gaps to play in behind Trent because he's usually high up on the wing or moving into the centre to create mayhem and provide assists.

TV pundits love talking about our high line as if Klopp and his team aren't well aware of the risks involved.

[deano2727]

Champions league is the most likely. And it's not even close as far as I can see.

I think it would take a pretty big f*ck up from City. I haven't seen much from this side to say we can be consistent enough to make up the difference. Outside of a few star performers, we haven't been good enough as a team to win the title this year. That can change, of course. Although we are relying on City probably dropping points in 4-5 games (including against us).

[Dr Stu-Pid]

The problem when you look at City is that it is easy to only remember the runs where they win 10 or 15 games in a row and forget about the times when they do drop points.  In the last 38 game stretch they have had 5 game runs of 9 points, 9 points, and 11 points back to back (to back) for a total of 29 points over 15 games.  If they repeat that run then they finish om 86 points which is definitely beatable.  They are not perfect, and we just need to keep the pressure on and get them worried.  A run of injuries, bad refereeing decisions, early red cards, or a couple of wonder strikes can happen at any time and suddenly things can start to look very different.

We just need to go back to that siege mentality of 'one game at a time' that we did so well in 18/ 19 and 19/ 20, and hope for some good luck around injuries.  And if City do run up a crazy points total that we can't catch then we'll just have to settle for the treble rather than the quadruple.

[VVM]

Even if we can't catch them, we need to focus on putting some space between us and the others so we can focus more attention on the Champions League and maybe even the FA Cup.

[Nick110581]

Even if we can't catch them, we need to focus on putting some space between us and the others so we can focus more attention on the Champions League and maybe even the FA Cup.

What do you mean ?

[jackh]

What do you mean ?

Secure Champions League 2022-23 qualification as early as possible, I think.