I thought this season gone would be the one where he would push on. I'm not sure he's got the drive and determination to do so. I really like him, he's got all the physical attributes but it seems like there's something missing
Progression is not always linear for footballers. For me, it´s clear to see he has a tonne of talent. We see it at times but at the moment it seems it´s frustrating that we don´t see it all the time. I guess that is what sets apart a player who is ready and one who is still putting together their game.
He has just turned 22 though so time is on his side. When you look at most center forwards, 22-25 is when their goal scoring touch really starts to happen for them. 11 goals from 43 games doesn´t sound great either. But then that number is heavily inflated by his little 3-10 minute cameos off the bench. In actual fact he played 2081 minutes of football for us in all comps last season - around about 23 games. In that time, he scored 11 and assisted 4. That makes him a 1 in 2 striker right now. His G+A/90 is 0.65 which means every 3 full games he plays, you can expect him to be involved directly in 2+ goals.
To put that into some perspective, I looked at Anthony Martial. A player around the same age (he is 6 months younger than our Divock), at a club of similar stature and who is also had a season in and out of the side. However he cost around 6 times more than Divock.
Martial had 8 goals and 8 assists from 42 games (2,571 minutes). That makes him a 1-in-3.5 games striker in terms of goalscoring which is pretty poor. He had double the assists of Divock though which puts his G+A/90 at 0.57, still below Origi.
I thought I would compare him to a few forwards who seem to have much hype about them at the moment who are still 22 or under. I excluded anybody who hadn´t played at least 1,000 minutes of football (e.g. Embolo, Iheanacho) as just having a couple of good games with such a small amount of minutes can make you look like an elite player.
Schick - 13 goals, 5 assists in 35 games (1653 minutes). 1-in-1,4 goalscorer. G+A/90 = 0,98
Doljberg - 23 goals, 8 assists in 48 games (3368 minutes). 1-in-1,6 goalscorer. G+A/90 = 0,828
Origi - 11 goals, 4 assists in 43 games (2081 minutes). 1-in-2,1 goalscorer. G+A/90 = 0,649
Martial - 8 goals, 8 assists in 42 games (2517 minutes). 1-in-3,5 goalscorer. G+A/90 = 0,572
Rashford - 11 goals, 6 assists in 53 games (3068 minutes). 1-in-3,1 goalscorer. G+A/90 = 0,499
Niang - 5 goals, 5 assists in 34 games (2377 minutes). 1-in-5,3 goalscorer. G+A/90 = 0,379
What does that tell me? Well that Origi is pretty much where you would expect him to be right now as a 21 year old forward (which what he was last season) who still hasn´t become first choice at club level. That given a run of games in the side, we could expect him to perform near to the level of Schick and Doljberg on this list as Origi was at his best when playing regularly but provided little when he was in and out of the team or in his little cameos that inflated his minutes played. That while Schick and Doljberg (two players I rate very highly) appear like upgrades on paper, they are both playing in leagues right now that appear easier for attacking players to score in at the moment and therefore it´s hard to say whether that would translate to the Premier League, certainly for next season when young forwards do tend to have an adjustment period.
It also tells me that once again, when you look at the numbers of hyped up Utd kids vs our own (Janujizz v Sterling / Martial & Rashford v Origi) that our guys tend to appear the better players who, perhaps, we don´t rate as highly simply because the pundits are telling us that Janujizz is a really special player. The next Ronaldo. That Rashford is the best young forward England have had since Owen/Rooney. That at £58m, Martial will need to make Martin Tyler cum more than once every 2 years to justify the outlay.
It seems crazy to talk about selling Origi right now to me. I suspect if he was throwing up his numbers from the bench of Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd or elsewhere he would probably be someone our transfer forum posters would be bemoaning that we weren´t trying to sign.
So lets get behind this kid. He actually is a very very good little player. I think when we watch young players for Liverpool, we see the glimpses of gold but also all the muck too. Whereas with young forwards at other clubs, we tend to remember their highlight reels only. We don´t watch Doljberg´s games where he fails to score or create and feel he personally let us and our club down. We maybe didn´t even see those games at all. So you never have any negative feelings to attach to him. All of which seriously skews our opinion of our own young players vs others we see moments of brillance from elsewhere. As a result we think Origi and we
feel he has been mostly disappointing. We think Schick, Doljberg and we
feel positive, excited... kid looks special. We should get him instead of Origi who let´s us down more often than not.
I guess what I am trying to say is that perhaps our inflated expectations after his Dortmund performance were too high for a 21 year old kid. Therefore it´s our perspectives of him that need to change rather than him actually being disappointing. To help us with this, I decided to have a look for one of those highlight reels of Divock along with customary shite music accompanying it for us to remember while watching youtube videos of other young forwards and having those "grass is greener" feelings. Here we go:-
<![CDATA[<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/l5K9WlcBBlo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/l5K9WlcBBlo</a>]]>