Topic: A title winning run may be needed...

[graaf_x]

If we finish 6th and qualify for the early (July) stages of Europa League, how it will affect our pre-season tour to Asia? "B-team" will stay in Europe and play against some shite, or tour will be cancelled?

[xerxes1]

So you're saying that by electing to get rid of Rafa (which I believe you were a strong supporter of doing apologies in advance if your not but I think I have you pegged right) you were happy to settle for not achieving a CL spot for whoever came in to manage?

Thanks for the caveat - I was an advocate of him remaining for at least another season.

The Rafa/Roy defeat is and was a tiresome sideshow.Last year we did worse without Xabi, this year we are doing worse still without Xabi and Masch - it's not a difficult equation.

Our demise previously was not down to Rafa, although he contributed to it. Our further demise this season is not down to Roy, although he hasn't helped.

Some of the stick that Roy has taken ( particularly the PR) is justified, much of it is not and ignores the lamentable state the club was, and is, in. FSG can change that, but it won't happen overnight.

But to answer your key point, there was evidence that we were in for a Top 4 finish this season either under Rafa, Roy, or anyone else.

[MagicB8all]

I'm not buying that mate.

Our last manager was (supposedly) sacked for underachieving - rightly or wrongly.  An improvement on seventh must surely be to challenge the CL spots?

The whole Premier League has been inconsistent - a grain of form away from home would have seen us within striking distance of the top 4 this year

Statistics show that we sent the second most number of players to the World Cup this year.  So if so many World Cup managers seemed to like our players, what makes you say that our squad is too poor to push for a CL spot?

The team that won the league when we finished second has indeed seen its own superstars leave and not much else come in to replace them.  This is my understanding of the Manc's main dealings since the summer of 2009 - any statasticians please correct me:

OUT:

Tevez - loan ended
Ronaldo - £80m
Fraser Campbell - £3m

IN:

Obertan - £3m
Owen - free
Valencia - £16m
Smalling - £20m
Hernandez - £7m
Bebe = £7.4m

As much as it hurts to say this but I make that two world class players leaving them, one decent signing, a few above average (on paper) and a bag of sh!te coming in. Why are United not suffering the similar demise as ourselves?

The Manc's looks handily placed to win their 19th league title.  Yes money is important but don't let it get in the way of what our real problem is this season - diabolical tactics.

That is the main reason why we are behind the likes of Sunderland, Bolton Sunderland and Stoke City.  That is the main reason why we will not finish any higher than 6th.  Someone needs to convince me that Bolton have a better squad of players than Liverpool - it will take some doing!

I'd love to believe we can get on a good run but I see us having, at the very best, 52-56 points.

basically Rafa had us punching above our weight. Now were punching just below. We need a manager of Rafa's caliber to have hope of CL football.

[JP-65]

Fulham won away today! 

Only Villa & Wolves have worse away records than we do

[Franky]

Forget Top 4 with Roy. There is no chance.

[LiverpoolKopKings]

just looked at the table and feel so depressed.

NU obviously lost again as they'll do pretty much against everyone after shafting us

I already cannot stomach mans with the 19th

[Kytracid]

Unless there is some major investment in the winter window 4th and champions league place is a distant dream. Even with the likes of Chelsea throwing away points we have to compete with spuds and city who look far and away the better teams both on paper and on the field. Things could change in 2011, but right now I'd settle for 6th place because even that looks like it'll be a battle.

[IndianaRed]

Really interesting read. Has one ever previously completed similar research in other seasons? I noticed the Fulham 'theory' of last season where they were expected to amass a certain total, but ended up reaching short of the expected result. I was wondering if anyone has completed similar research for Liverpool, sue to the knowledge of LFC performing better second half of the season? Anyways thanks to the OP for presenting this research.

I haven't done the stats for seasons beyond last season because it's too much work, but here are Liverpool's numbers from last season:

Last year, Liverpool accumulated 27 points in the first 17 games (with a +11 Goal Difference).  that's an average of 1.59 points per game.  in the remaining 21 games we averaged 1.71 points per game and ended the season with a +26 Goal Difference.  It seems there was indeed a pick-up in form in the 'second half' of the season.

Last year's 38-game projected point total based off of the 17 game average comes to 60.35 points.  Our actual point total after 38 games was 63 points.  We exceeded our 38-game projection (based off of 17-game average) by roughly 2.65 points, or 4.39%

These numbers are not massive, but are better than Roy's numbers from last season in every single department, and better than the numbers Roy is projected to get this season.  Compare the numbers above to Roy's number's from last season at Fulham and this season at Liverpool below:

Some Statistics regarding point totals and averages:

Last season at Fulham, after 17 games Roy had accumulated 26 points.  This season with a higher-quality LIVERPOOL team, he has amassed just 22 points from the same number of games.  4 fewer points than last season where he had a weaker squad.

Last season at Fulham, he ended the season after 38 games with 46 points, just 20 more points than after that 17th game.  20 more points in 21 more games.
 In those first 17 games his point average was 1.53;  in the remaining 21 games his point average was 0.95 points per game.  His 38-game points per game average last season was just 1.21 points per game.

This season with liverpool his 17 game point average is 1.29 points per game.   if at this point last season you were to use his first-17 game average from last season (1.529411...) to project his 38 game point total for last season, he was on pace to earn 58.12 points (ended up with 46).  if you were to project his 38-game point total for THIS season using this season's 17-game point average, he is currently on pace to earn 49.18 points.

last season, his 38 game total of 46 points was 20.85% lower than his 17-game average projection predicted the 38 game total would be at the end of the season (58.12).

if our real point total at the end of this season is 20.85% less than the 17-game average predicts it will be after 38 games (49.18), then we will have a massive 38.92 points at the end of this season.

[foreverred1983]

I didnt think there was any of us left who thought we would finish 4th this year. I gave up on that when we lost to Blackpool.

The top 4 will have a higher points total this year i think. Only because City look like they arent going to fuck it all up like they regularly do.

This is a lost year for us both in terms of achievement and development. Now, im off to spread more christmas cheer at the office party.

[JP-65]

I haven't done the stats for seasons beyond last season because it's too much work, but here are Liverpool's numbers from last season:

Last year, Liverpool accumulated 27 points in the first 17 games (with a +11 Goal Difference).  that's an average of 1.59 points per game.  in the remaining 21 games we averaged 1.71 points per game and ended the season with a +26 Goal Difference.  It seems there was indeed a pick-up in form in the 'second half' of the season.

Last year's 38-game projected point total based off of the 17 game average comes to 60.35 points.  Our actual point total after 38 games was 63 points.  We exceeded our 38-game projection (based off of 17-game average) by roughly 2.65 points, or 4.39%

These numbers are not massive, but are better than Roy's numbers from last season in every single department, and better than the numbers Roy is projected to get this season.  Compare the numbers above to Roy's number's from last season at Fulham and this season at Liverpool below:

I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but this information is available, for every team, in the results comparison thread.

[John C]

Xerxes tends to stick his fingers in his ears and sing when you try to tell him that the club actually brought in replacements for Masch and Benayoun in the form of Meireles and Cole.

I don't think so, he simply pointed out two consecutive massive losses from the club. Why twist it to be anything other than what we've suffered?

[IndianaRed]

I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but this information is available, for every team, in the results comparison thread.

yeah, sorry, i did see your posts regarding that thread, but i kinda wanted to do the stats myself.  i haven't seen that thread much but if it's all in tables and graphs and stuff, maybe for some it's easier to see it written out in sentences like i did.  regardless, now i'll go take a look at it myself!

[JP-65]

yeah, sorry, i did see your posts regarding that thread, but i kinda wanted to do the stats myself.  i haven't seen that thread much but if it's all in tables and graphs and stuff, maybe for some it's easier to see it written out in sentences like i did.  regardless, now i'll go take a look at it myself!

Glad to see some good posters in there!  The charts I posted above are indicative of some of the work in there.

[Filler.]

Whichever position or 'side' any of us is currently on, I think it may be safe to say that a top four placing in the league, and along with it CL qualification, is a reasonable enough expectation, whatever the circumstances is. In which case, perhaps a look at the probability of us achieving the said objective might be in order.

It's not really in order tho is it? I mean really. You'd have to be a clown to come out with this 4th spot being a reasonable enough expectation. Stick to the plays... some of them were great. If we get 6th it would be a staggering comeback. Stats, charts, graphs? Madness! Ha.

[GeneticRed]

There is no way on earth we will produce the title winning run needed to get a champions league spot.
Roy certainly isn't going to do it and even if the best coach in the world came in he wouldn't turn it round in time.
If we finish 8th i'd be surprised.
Shakespeare should stick to the plays as Filler says. And the er 'shagging'.

[shelovesyou]

CL is not impossible , we win our games in hand and we 5 points off, but its very, very unlikely Im afraid. I reckon we'll get 7th or 8th. Sadly.

[Gnurglan]

Two things

1) It's unlikely that we can find title winning form, but it's still possible. I'd bet against it, yet as long as the chance is there and we have the destiny in our own hands, we shouldn't give up.
2) There is, and has been for years, a mentality among the fans and probably among the players as well, to find excuses. We always moan about poor players. Our squad is not good enough, we suffer from so many injuries etc. And then we watch the Mancs go half a season unbeaten with the worst squad they have had in ages. Chelsea have been on a dreadful run, they have lacked Lampard for months, they have unknown players on the bench and have no difficulty outperforming us.

We need to adapt the mentality we had in Istanbul, in Cardiff, away to Barca and vs Chelsea and Arsenal in those 4-4 games. No surrender. Fortunately we now have no other option but to go for it.

[JP-65]

CL is not impossible , we win our games in hand and we 5 points off, but its very, very unlikely Im afraid. I reckon we'll get 7th or 8th. Sadly.

CL is impossible, it's that simple.

[west_london_red]

CL is not impossible , we win our games in hand and we 5 points off, but its very, very unlikely Im afraid. I reckon we'll get 7th or 8th. Sadly.

We were kidding ourselves like this last year, and our position is probably worse this year then last. Lets not delude ourselves, it only makes fixing the problems harder.

[Cybertom]

Wow, great research there.
As for my opinion, I think 4th is still a viable option.

And me, surprisingly.
2.33 points per game to the end of the same. 2 wins and a draw every 3 games, we can do that - if we play the right football for the squad.
I hope we get 4th to stop Fernando leaving!

[simesy]

At the moment we are nearer the bottom three than a european place.We wont win many away games and at home we MAY win more than half.We will be lucky to finish where we did last season.The eternal optomist in me died a month or two back.

[Cybertom]

Two things

1) It's unlikely that we can find title winning form, but it's still possible. I'd bet against it, yet as long as the chance is there and we have the destiny in our own hands, we shouldn't give up.
2) There is, and has been for years, a mentality among the fans and probably among the players as well, to find excuses. We always moan about poor players. Our squad is not good enough, we suffer from so many injuries etc. And then we watch the Mancs go half a season unbeaten with the worst squad they have had in ages. Chelsea have been on a dreadful run, they have lacked Lampard for months, they have unknown players on the bench and have no difficulty outperforming us.

We need to adapt the mentality we had in Istanbul, in Cardiff, away to Barca and vs Chelsea and Arsenal in those 4-4 games. No surrender. Fortunately we now have no other option but to go for it.

Exactly.
It's what we've screamed from the stands. If any club, through mentality, determination and will, can achieve 4th in this bizarre season, it is LIVERPOOL FOOTBALL CLUB!

[Andy @ Allerton!]

And me, surprisingly.
2.33 points per game to the end of the same. 2 wins and a draw every 3 games, we can do that - if we play the right football for the squad.
I hope we get 4th to stop Fernando leaving!

I like your optomism. But we're three points (Or 1 defeat) from relegation.

[nifmus]

A title winning manager WILL be needed...

[Tonyh]

Chelsea are in total disaray at the moment, so 4th place is definitely up for grabs. We have a good run of games coming up and with almost a fully fit squad anything is possible. We just need some belief and for Roy to be more positive. But ultimately it is up to the players and we need to start putting away the chances that Nando, Maxi and co have missed recently. Dont forget we really should have beaten Spurs.

[Shakespeare]

Really interesting read. Has one ever previously completed similar research in other seasons? I noticed the Fulham 'theory' of last season where they were expected to amass a certain total, but ended up reaching short of the expected result. I was wondering if anyone has completed similar research for Liverpool, sue to the knowledge of LFC performing better second half of the season? Anyways thanks to the OP for presenting this research.

Mate, here's a decent site to answer your question : http://www.takethepiss.com/forums/football-predictions/bet/13/
Note: Their archive is only for 3 years though

Great research fella,
sadly i fear the only run we may see that will increase our league form would be a certain manager running out of the the Shankly Gates screaming "BYEEEEEE I"M GOING NOWWWWW, I"MM NEVVEERR COOMMINNGG BAAAACKKKK....BBBYYEEEEEE"

Now why does that sound so familiar.....

Well, haven't you heard? They're still learning. They can't do anything because we don't have a CEO.
But nevermind. At least they're "listening".

Made me chuckle that.

Agree.
To reach top four, we need a ~50% win ratio = at least 19 wins. To win the PL, we need to win ~2/3 of the games, = at least 25 wins. We have 6 wins now, with 21 games to go. That's 13 more wins in 21 games = 62% (close to the 2/3=67%).

When you put it like that, it's quite clear that we can't afford to slip up anymore. Rafa said you need to have an almost perfect season if you are to win the PL. That is what we need now. A close to perfect second half of the season.

So far we have performed like the mid-table side our 11th place shows. It's of course possible for us to get the 2/3 win ratio, but to be honest, there have been no signs of us being able to get there in the first half of the season. If I was to bet on our final league position at this stage, I'd bet on 7-12th and that really is depressing.

Very nice. Hi five

Its certainly possible that we'll go on a run and I expect to see an improvement in our football but we are not going to accumulate the points needed are we. Lets face it, it just ain't going to happen. The first half of the season was too disastrous.

We were too frightened of ourselves, too many errors by the players and the manager which turned in to too many easy games for the opposition which means too many points to claw back.

I'm optimistic of a run mate, but not one of title winning standards.

Closest to my own sentiments, mate

Hey look on the bright side.

We are first somewhere....

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league/all-time-table/full

This is brilliant. lol. At least something else to keep them Mancs around here (as in my here) quiet for a while.

Buying world class players and then giving them to Roy to manage would be like giving my mother an F1 car to pop down to the shops.

Sad, but true...

You never know, our luck might change. Roy could get arrested for impersonating a Liverpool manager.

Another chuckle worthy post!

Just for a more positive outlook, I did the opposite. This is how many points we'll need to stay up.

17th
09/10 WHU 35
08/09 Hull 35
07/08 Fulham 36 (GD)
06/07 Wigan 38 (GD)
05/06 Portsmouth 38

Average: 36.6

We are currently on 22 points, with 21 games to play. We need 14.6 points of those 21 games to reach the average for 17th. Thats 0.7 points per match. Or about 5 wins.

Of our 21 matches to come, 11 are at home and 10 are away. So if we just win half of home games, and lose all other games, chances are we won't get relegated. Cheer up.

In a perverse way, perhaps we really should take some consolation from this. After the mental and emotional strain of the past few years, maybe we do need little victories like this to buoy our spirits...sigh

The results comparison thread is full of this type of analysis, even more so if you go back to the same thread for prior seasons, there's been a new thread for each season for quite a few seasons now.

http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=262288.0

Worth a look mate. Shall pop down later..

basically Rafa had us punching above our weight. Now were punching just below. We need a manager of Rafa's caliber to have hope of CL football.

I think I will plagiarize this statement, if that's okay with you mate...

It's not really in order tho is it? I mean really. You'd have to be a clown to come out with this 4th spot being a reasonable enough expectation. Stick to the plays... some of them were great. If we get 6th it would be a staggering comeback. Stats, charts, graphs? Madness! Ha.

Thanks for the insults.

There is no way on earth we will produce the title winning run needed to get a champions league spot.
Roy certainly isn't going to do it and even if the best coach in the world came in he wouldn't turn it round in time.
If we finish 8th i'd be surprised.
Shakespeare should stick to the plays as Filler says. And the er 'shagging'.

Here's another one. Thanks for the personal insults.

Two things

1) It's unlikely that we can find title winning form, but it's still possible. I'd bet against it, yet as long as the chance is there and we have the destiny in our own hands, we shouldn't give up.
2) There is, and has been for years, a mentality among the fans and probably among the players as well, to find excuses. We always moan about poor players. Our squad is not good enough, we suffer from so many injuries etc. And then we watch the Mancs go half a season unbeaten with the worst squad they have had in ages. Chelsea have been on a dreadful run, they have lacked Lampard for months, they have unknown players on the bench and have no difficulty outperforming us.

We need to adapt the mentality we had in Istanbul, in Cardiff, away to Barca and vs Chelsea and Arsenal in those 4-4 games. No surrender. Fortunately we now have no other option but to go for it.

Very reasoned opinion, and hard to find anything to disagree with. Props

And me, surprisingly.
2.33 points per game to the end of the same. 2 wins and a draw every 3 games, we can do that - if we play the right football for the squad.
I hope we get 4th to stop Fernando leaving!

Dude, let me have some of what you're having. That stuff rocks!lol
Seriously though, admirable convictions you have there. Sometimes people like you are necessary to counter the jaded and cynicism of the rest of us...

[Andy @ Allerton!]

If Roy Hodgson gets Liverpool to finish in fourth place or above, I'll eat a sprout.

[JP-65]

Sheeesh, how difficult is this. 

We need 2.29 points per match to get to 70 points, which historically has been good enough for 4th, as no 5th place team has got to this level.

This decade, we only have matched this once, never exceeded it, and matched it in our 86 point season, 2 seasons ago.

In my database of 8 seasons, for all the teams in the PL, 2.29 ppm has been beaten only 6 times, and matched twice.  So on average, 1 team a season matches or exceeds this level of performance!

I can guarantee you, that team won't be us this season!

[Andy @ Allerton!]

Sheeesh, how difficult is this. 

We need 2.29 points per match to get to 70 points, which historically has been good enough for 4th, as no 5th place team has got to this level.

This decade, we only have matched this once, never exceeded it, and matched it in our 86 point season, 2 seasons ago.

In my database of 8 seasons, for all the teams in the PL, 2.29 ppm has been beaten only 6 times, and matched twice.  So on average, 1 team a season matches or exceeds this level of performance!

I can guarantee you, that team won't be us this season!

Good. I hate sprouts.

[Chakan]

Expectations lowered. Job done.

[BFM]

based on past behavior that's the sacking position :-)

The glass is half full

[Shakespeare]

Sheeesh, how difficult is this. 

We need 2.29 points per match to get to 70 points, which historically has been good enough for 4th, as no 5th place team has got to this level.

This decade, we only have matched this once, never exceeded it, and matched it in our 86 point season, 2 seasons ago.

In my database of 8 seasons, for all the teams in the PL, 2.29 ppm has been beaten only 6 times, and matched twice.  So on average, 1 team a season matches or exceeds this level of performance!

I can guarantee you, that team won't be us this season!

Well go on now, tell us what you really think. Don't go beating around the bushes...

Good. I hate sprouts.

Why? They're rather good, if I say so myself

[Shakespeare]

Expectations lowered. Job done.

Indeed.

The glass is half full

May I join you?

[rushyman]

4th is realistically fading with every game that passes and will probably have dissapeared completely by the end of jan if we dont get to 40 points. That would require 18 points from a possible 21, then after that maintaning that form. So im afraid you can probably forget Top 4

Its the Europa League we are looking at and to be honest that could need 60 points. Thats 38 points from a possible 63

Thats at least 12 wins and 2 draws with 7 losses from from 21 games. That sounds a hell of a lot like what we'll probably do with Roy at the helm.

So, Europa gonna be close, Top 4 - A change of form more at home in comic books.

[USC19Babel]

Let me get this straight:

things aren't looking good

?

[Carra-ton]

4th is realistically fading with every game that passes and will probably have dissapeared completely by the end of jan if we dont get to 40 points. That would require 18 points from a possible 21, then after that maintaning that form. So im afraid you can probably forget Top 4

Its the Europa League we are looking at and to be honest that could need 60 points. Thats 38 points from a possible 63

Thats at least 12 wins and 2 draws with 7 losses from from 21 games. That sounds a hell of a lot like what we'll probably do with Roy at the helm.

So, Europa gonna be close, Top 4 - A change of form more at home in comic books.

I think 4th is impossible, simply because NESV won't fire Hodgson now before the end of the season. The time to take action was back in October, now it is too late. I think we will get a big signing but that will be it. Also, I have already resigned to 7th this season. Lets get to May and build from there, a finish in the top half is the aim now.

[Beninger]

I hope they realize that it will be difficult (although not impossible) to not only keep our important players, but also to pick up new ones, if we don't make the CL.  Any money they were going to spend on class players will not only be offset by the ones we already have leaving, but we might not even get new stars because of the lack of CL.  Not to mention it will cost even more out of pocket to pick up these new stars, because there is no more CL money coming in.  I hope they have realized this vicious circle...

[Ryan M]

The reasons I asked about the latter half of the seasons is because it would be interesting to hear where LFC could potentially finish. If we regularly gain more points in the second half of the season what's our expected point total and position?

[Andy @ Allerton!]

The reasons I asked about the latter half of the seasons is because it would be interesting to hear where LFC could potentially finish. If we regularly gain more points in the second half of the season what's our expected point total and position?

8th

[Ryan M]

8th

That would coincide with an improved second half of the season, the best we can hope for is 8th?