Author Topic: The PL run-in  (Read 297171 times)

Offline Dave McCoy

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4600 on: May 3, 2021, 10:09:58 pm »
538 odds after this weekends results:
Leicester 79%
Chelsea 66%
LFC 28%
West Ham 18%
Spurs 9%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

Offline jckliew

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4601 on: May 4, 2021, 01:57:40 am »
6th place it is.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4602 on: May 4, 2021, 03:03:40 am »
I still think Leicester are going to fuck it up again. They've a tricky run -in.

However, I don't think we will be good enough to be the beneficiaries.

Leicester might still scrape 4th... or it could be Gollums
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4603 on: May 4, 2021, 08:13:52 am »
I think we finish 6th. Not good enough to finish in the top 4 but not bad enough to finish in the European Conference League or outside of Europe altogether.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4604 on: May 4, 2021, 08:20:21 am »
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Liverpool make decision on postponed Man Utd game with FA permitted to award Reds the win




Quote
According to the rules, the governing body CAN declare the fixture will not be replayed at a later date, and instead award the three points to the Reds, if they decide it was abandoned due to the conduct of one Club or its supporters.

But the Anfield club have no interest in pursuing such an outcome, and instead will work with Manchester United to find a date for the fixture to be completed.

Liverpool had the option of an easy three points and chose not to pursue it. The story of our season.

Offline PeterTheRed

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4605 on: May 4, 2021, 08:55:36 am »
Mirror Football
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Liverpool make decision on postponed Man Utd game with FA permitted to award Reds the win




Liverpool had the option of an easy three points and chose not to pursue it. The story of our season.

Lets be honest, it was not our decision to make. Sky are making these decisions, and they would never give up the money ...

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4606 on: May 4, 2021, 09:29:24 am »
I think we had a good chance of winning the last 4 with the more relaxed schedule and no other distractions (our performances either side of CL games have been poor, particularly in the knockouts) and had the advantage at Old Trafford after 8 days without a game while they were in the middle of a semi final tie. 4th was still an outside chance given Leicester/Chelsea's last 4 games.

Now we're stuck with 5 games in 15 days. We'll do well to win 3 of them.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4607 on: May 4, 2021, 09:32:08 am »
I think we had a good chance of winning the last 4 with the more relaxed schedule and no other distractions (our performances either side of CL games have been poor, particularly in the knockouts) and had the advantage at Old Trafford after 8 days without a game. 4th was still an outside chance given Leicester/Chelsea's last 4 games.

Now we're stuck with 5 games in 15 days. We'll do well to win 3 of them.

I think there was not a great chance of winning 4 games out of 5. Our form hasnt been good enough all season and have we put a run like that together all season.

Lets have it right, we fucked this season up much earlier than now.

Offline gazzalfc

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4608 on: May 4, 2021, 09:35:46 am »
Yeah this isn't a need for competition and seeing football being played

This is about SKY fulfilling their advertising slots and making us fulfil the game.

As for the run in. We *should* be winning all our remaining games.

The extra break for the Southampton game should help us but we usually dont do well with that.

7th should be avoided at all costs. 6th wouldn't be the end of the world European football wise.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4609 on: May 4, 2021, 09:38:36 am »
I think there was not a great chance of winning 4 games out of 5. Our form hasnt been good enough all season and have we put a run like that together all season.

Lets have it right, we fucked this season up much earlier than now.

We fucked it against Leeds and Newcastle, but had we held on we'd be more annoyed now that we're disadvantaged for the last 5 games with this schedule.

The first time all season we had a decent run of fixtures with a break between games and instead now it's another 5 in 15 and go into Saturday's game undercooked.

4th was unlikely anyway but it could cost us 5th or 6th now and get us stuck in the Conference League.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4610 on: May 4, 2021, 09:41:40 am »
Yeah this isn't a need for competition and seeing football being played

This is about SKY fulfilling their advertising slots and making us fulfil the game.

As for the run in. We *should* be winning all our remaining games.

The extra break for the Southampton game should help us but we usually dont do well with that.

7th should be avoided at all costs. 6th wouldn't be the end of the world European football wise.

While we get to sit back and watch Sky pundits slaughter our club throughout the broadcast on Sunday while defending the fans who got the game abandoned.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4611 on: May 4, 2021, 09:46:47 am »
We fucked it against Leeds and Newcastle, but had we held on we'd be more annoyed now that we're disadvantaged for the last 5 games with this schedule.

The first time all season we had a decent run of fixtures with a break between games and instead now it's another 5 in 15 and go into Saturday's game undercooked.

4th was unlikely anyway but it could cost us 5th or 6th now and get us stuck in the Conference League.

Im sorry but I dont have any real sympathy for us. This season has been a shit one with us taking a bad hand or two handed to us and then deciding to add more shite to that pile.

As Klopp said, we will get what we deserve and moaning about a rearranged fixture wont define this season.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4612 on: May 4, 2021, 09:54:39 am »
Im sorry but I dont have any real sympathy for us. This season has been a shit one with us taking a bad hand or two handed to us and then deciding to add more shite to that pile.

As Klopp said, we will get what we deserve and moaning about a rearranged fixture wont define this season.

Didn't Klopp wage war on BT because we played Brighton early on Saturday after a CL game on Wednesday? He won't be happy with this either that's for sure.

We don't deserve CL football next season, but we've had more than a shit hand dealt to us this season as a team. VAR, refs, the boost of fans back for a few games and then back to empty Anfield, CB injuries have been unprecedented and killed the midfield as well. The distraction of the SL thanks to the stupidity of our owners. The circus we had to face at Leeds, what we had to deal with on Sunday and now the disruption for this week and fixture congestion for the last few games.
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Offline Dull Tools

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4613 on: May 4, 2021, 09:57:42 am »
Mirror Football
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Liverpool make decision on postponed Man Utd game with FA permitted to award Reds the win




Liverpool had the option of an easy three points and chose not to pursue it. The story of our season.
We should refuse to play it and play hardball. It isn't our fault the game was abandoned. Why should we put the health of our players at risk?

If Sky or the PL have an issue it is clear who the faulty party is. Sky can sue United for the money they lost.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4614 on: May 4, 2021, 10:50:41 am »
Didn't Klopp wage war on BT because we played Brighton early on Saturday after a CL game on Wednesday? He won't be happy with this either that's for sure.

We don't deserve CL football next season, but we've had more than a shit hand dealt to us this season as a team. VAR, refs, the boost of fans back for a few games and then back to empty Anfield, CB injuries have been unprecedented and killed the midfield as well. The distraction of the SL thanks to the stupidity of our owners. The circus we had to face at Leeds, what we had to deal with on Sunday and now the disruption for this week and fixture congestion for the last few games.

Yes we have. But we brought some of them on ourselves.

I know you love to create a conspiracy of how the league has been built to ensure Everton win it, but of all the shit we have to deal with this supposed fixture congestion ranks very low on it.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4615 on: May 4, 2021, 11:23:12 am »
The rearranged fixture will be a cool excuse for finishing outside the top 4, but the truth is that we fucked it up by dropping way too many points from winning position. Not converting chances to make it 2-0 and then conceding a late equaliser - we know it too well, unfortunately, it happens time after time and we haven't learned anything.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4616 on: May 4, 2021, 11:40:45 am »
If you gotta fail, you might as well fail in style!

If we don't get top 4 (which is likely) then I'd like us to get into the Conference and be the first team to win it  8)

Might be a blessing in disguise. We could blood some of the kids and fringe players in that comp until we reach the final.

Then the first team will be fresher to make a real PL title challenge.
One season out of the CL won't kill us. But we do need to maintain our PL challenge every season. This season was a blip.

Offline Red_Rich

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4617 on: May 4, 2021, 12:08:46 pm »
The rearranged fixture will be a cool excuse for finishing outside the top 4, but the truth is that we fucked it up by dropping way too many points from winning position. Not converting chances to make it 2-0 and then conceding a late equaliser - we know it too well, unfortunately, it happens time after time and we haven't learned anything.


I think you'll find it was the 6 home defeats on the spin that fucked us.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4618 on: May 4, 2021, 12:11:40 pm »
Yes we have. But we brought some of them on ourselves.

I know you love to create a conspiracy of how the league has been built to ensure Everton win it, but of all the shit we have to deal with this supposed fixture congestion ranks very low on it.

It's just another shit hand we've been dealt.

United were fucking garbage last season but still stole away with a CL place due to Leicester's collapse and they didn't have the injuries we had or the VAR robberies (on the contrary).
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Offline MacKon

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4619 on: May 4, 2021, 12:13:52 pm »

I think you'll find it was the 6 home defeats on the spin that fucked us.

pretty much every home game from Christmas to mid March was extremely difficult to watch. Something weird happened to the team and it's something I just can't explain in any way.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4620 on: May 4, 2021, 12:53:13 pm »
I still think Leicester are going to fuck it up again. They've a tricky run -in.

However, I don't think we will be good enough to be the beneficiaries.

Leicester might still scrape 4th... or it could be Gollums

I agree with this totally.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4621 on: May 4, 2021, 01:06:56 pm »
We've been shit for so long now and the last thing any of us needs is another controversy in this shit-heap of a bilbo baggins of a dumpster fire of a season, who can honestly be arsed?
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4622 on: May 4, 2021, 03:20:14 pm »
Lets be honest, it was not our decision to make. Sky are making these decisions, and they would never give up the money ...

I agree, the game probably wouldve been moved to Monday if Sky hadnt already had 2 fixtures to fulfil

Offline Black Bull Nova

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4623 on: May 4, 2021, 11:52:14 pm »
We should refuse to play it and play hardball. It isn't our fault the game was abandoned. Why should we put the health of our players at risk?

If Sky or the PL have an issue it is clear who the faulty party is. Sky can sue United for the money they lost.

If its not switched with the WBA game and that game played on the 12th then we take the 3pts and that is a compromise because we should have the pts given where we are and what is at stake (but it won't happen to an internationally watched game like this). 

That needs to be sorted though because it's only a week away and WBA will have expressed a view
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Offline johnj147

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4624 on: Yesterday at 12:34:57 am »
Mirror Football
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Liverpool make decision on postponed Man Utd game with FA permitted to award Reds the win




Liverpool had the option of an easy three points and chose not to pursue it. The story of our season.
.  Take the points wasn't our fault they went over the top .. vandalism and attacking police officers..

Offline rawcusk8

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4625 on: Yesterday at 01:34:59 am »
Just looking at some of the prize money on offer for the Europa League, a quick Google search showed the following;

For the 202021 season, the Europa League prize money for group stages awarded a base fee of 2.920,000. A victory in the group pays 570,000 and a draw 190,000. Also, each group winner earns 1,000,000 and each runner-up 500,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: 500,000 for the round of 32, 1,100,000 for the round of 16, 1,500,000 for the quarter-finals and 2,400,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive 4,500,000 and the champions receive 8,500,000.

The winner of the tournament could walk away with upto 13- 15 million as prize money.

Pales in comparison to the Champions League but its better than nothing. Thats not factoring in the money well make from broadcasting and also from ticket sales. We would be able to give first team exposure to a number of youngsters and give days off to the first teamers when we face the dross. Not ideal to miss out on the Champions League but if we do Ive convinced myself its not all bad, Id say Im at the acceptance stage of grief, so not bad going for myself.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4626 on: Yesterday at 01:52:19 am »
They should give us the 3 points but id still rather beat them on grass.
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4627 on: Yesterday at 02:04:29 am »
Just looking at some of the prize money on offer for the Europa League, a quick Google search showed the following;

For the 202021 season, the Europa League prize money for group stages awarded a base fee of 2.920,000. A victory in the group pays 570,000 and a draw 190,000. Also, each group winner earns 1,000,000 and each runner-up 500,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: 500,000 for the round of 32, 1,100,000 for the round of 16, 1,500,000 for the quarter-finals and 2,400,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive 4,500,000 and the champions receive 8,500,000.

The winner of the tournament could walk away with upto 13- 15 million as prize money.

Pales in comparison to the Champions League but its better than nothing. Thats not factoring in the money well make from broadcasting and also from ticket sales. We would be able to give first team exposure to a number of youngsters and give days off to the first teamers when we face the dross. Not ideal to miss out on the Champions League but if we do Ive convinced myself its not all bad, Id say Im at the acceptance stage of grief, so not bad going for myself.
Is EL better than nothing though? If you win it, then yes, I agree. It's a major trophy, not life the League Cup and probably higher-ranked than the FA Cup. But the odds of playing in the EL and not winning it are far greater and that comes at the expense of players injuries, fatigue, and distracted Thursday/Sunday game schedules for the whole team. It sucks. So, even if you rake some 10m as a losing finalist, which doesn't buy you even Grujic-level player, a title push can easily be derailed. I'd rather we play the kids in the EL to avoid what happened to Jota this season, and to have out clear focus on the title. It's not guaranteed that we will win it, but the EL will definitely take that chance away, especially considering how thin the squad will be come the fall. 
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4628 on: Yesterday at 10:23:18 am »
Is EL better than nothing though? If you win it, then yes, I agree. It's a major trophy, not life the League Cup and probably higher-ranked than the FA Cup. But the odds of playing in the EL and not winning it are far greater and that comes at the expense of players injuries, fatigue, and distracted Thursday/Sunday game schedules for the whole team. It sucks. So, even if you rake some 10m as a losing finalist, which doesn't buy you even Grujic-level player, a title push can easily be derailed. I'd rather we play the kids in the EL to avoid what happened to Jota this season, and to have out clear focus on the title. It's not guaranteed that we will win it, but the EL will definitely take that chance away, especially considering how thin the squad will be come the fall.

Yeah, it's the collateral issue with the EL from a season of Thursday/Sundays, without giving you sufficient revenues to carry the extra quality in depth.

When did a team who went the distance in the Europa League last go the distance in a title race?
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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4629 on: Yesterday at 10:34:58 am »
Just looking at some of the prize money on offer for the Europa League, a quick Google search showed the following;

For the 202021 season, the Europa League prize money for group stages awarded a base fee of 2.920,000. A victory in the group pays 570,000 and a draw 190,000. Also, each group winner earns 1,000,000 and each runner-up 500,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: 500,000 for the round of 32, 1,100,000 for the round of 16, 1,500,000 for the quarter-finals and 2,400,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive 4,500,000 and the champions receive 8,500,000.

The winner of the tournament could walk away with upto 13- 15 million as prize money.

Pales in comparison to the Champions League but its better than nothing. Thats not factoring in the money well make from broadcasting and also from ticket sales. We would be able to give first team exposure to a number of youngsters and give days off to the first teamers when we face the dross. Not ideal to miss out on the Champions League but if we do Ive convinced myself its not all bad, Id say Im at the acceptance stage of grief, so not bad going for myself.

United got 25m for their semi final run in 19/20, think it has risen since so a winning finalist would prob be closer to 35m.

Add on the money for ticket sales and youre looking at over 50m for winning it, likely closer to 60m.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4630 on: Yesterday at 10:47:04 am »
Just looking at some of the prize money on offer for the Europa League, a quick Google search showed the following;

For the 202021 season, the Europa League prize money for group stages awarded a base fee of 2.920,000. A victory in the group pays 570,000 and a draw 190,000. Also, each group winner earns 1,000,000 and each runner-up 500,000. Reaching the knock-out stage triggers additional bonuses: 500,000 for the round of 32, 1,100,000 for the round of 16, 1,500,000 for the quarter-finals and 2,400,000 for the semi-finals. The losing finalists receive 4,500,000 and the champions receive 8,500,000.

The winner of the tournament could walk away with upto 13- 15 million as prize money.

Pales in comparison to the Champions League but its better than nothing. Thats not factoring in the money well make from broadcasting and also from ticket sales. We would be able to give first team exposure to a number of youngsters and give days off to the first teamers when we face the dross. Not ideal to miss out on the Champions League but if we do Ive convinced myself its not all bad, Id say Im at the acceptance stage of grief, so not bad going for myself.

Thats just the prize money. You earn more through various other factors - TV pool, co-efficient rating.

When we got beat in the final a few years back (2015/16) we earned the just under 40M (not including gate recipes). Total prize money was 411M that season. For comparison its over 500M this season.

A good Europa League campaign probably earns Liverpool about 40-50% of what theyd earn by going to QF in CL.

Its a pain doing Thurs/Sun and it arguably hinders in the league. However, the money on offer isnt a small amount any more.
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Offline darragh85

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4631 on: Yesterday at 10:50:03 am »
to be honest I don't thibk Klopp would want 3 easy points like that.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4632 on: Yesterday at 10:50:07 am »
The Hammers have quite an easy run in, if the plastics of London make a mince of it then they should steal the 4th spot. Guess our run in is also good but its really out of our hands at the moment. Cannot see Leicester falling out of the top 4 either.

Weirdly, glancing at the table, both us and utd are the only teams to have not lost 1 of the last 5 games.
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Offline kennedy81

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4633 on: Yesterday at 11:02:07 am »
Yeah, it's the collateral issue with the EL from a season of Thursday/Sundays, without giving you sufficient revenues to carry the extra quality in depth.

When did a team who went the distance in the Europa League last go the distance in a title race?
Yeah, we could struggle to get top 4 next season if we're in the EL, never mind compete for the title. Then you're on the slippery slope and we're back to where we were in 2016 with time running out on Jurgen's contract.

I had hoped winning the CL and then the PL was going to push us up a level that we could sustain going forward, with FSG seeing real value in investing more in the team. Now they mightn't be so keen and could be wondering what's the point. It's hard not to feel like we've really screwed ourselves this season.

Offline kennedy81

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4634 on: Yesterday at 11:05:43 am »
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Liverpool make decision on postponed Man Utd game with FA permitted to award Reds the win




Liverpool had the option of an easy three points and chose not to pursue it. The story of our season.
For fuck's sake, tell me this isn't real. Take the bastard points.

Offline Brain Potter

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4635 on: Yesterday at 11:05:45 am »
I still think Leicester are going to fuck it up again. They've a tricky run -in.

However, I don't think we will be good enough to be the beneficiaries.

Leicester might still scrape 4th... or it could be Gollums

Leicester play Newcastle at home next. Win that and I think theyre pretty much home and hosed.

Offline Red_Rich

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4636 on: Yesterday at 11:14:12 am »
Yeah, we could struggle to get top 4 next season if we're in the EL, never mind compete for the title. Then you're on the slippery slope and we're back to where we were in 2016 with time running out on Jurgen's contract.

I had hoped winning the CL and then the PL was going to push us up a level that we could sustain going forward, with FSG seeing real value in investing more in the team. Now they mightn't be so keen and could be wondering what's the point. It's hard not to feel like we've really screwed ourselves this season.


While, admittedly, we've been bad, there's no doubt in my mind that it's been the Pandemic and everything that has come with it that screwed us.
United used to win titles on easy street, time for us to take over that real estate

Offline jackh

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4637 on: Yesterday at 12:14:27 pm »
Updated:

3rdLeicester34+2263
4thChelsea34+2261
5thWest Ham33+1055
6thLiverpool33+1654
7thSpurs33+1853
8thEverton33+352

Weekend:
Southampton 1-1 Leicester
Chelsea 2-0 Fulham
Everton 1-2 Villa
United vs Liverpool
Spurs vs Sheffield United
Burnley vs West Ham

Updated (hadn't even looked at the Spurs and West Ham results until just now to be honest...):

3rdLeicester34+2263
4thChelsea34+2261
5thWest Ham34+1158
6thSpurs34+2256
7thLiverpool33+1654
8thEverton33+352

Weekend gone:
Southampton 1-1 Leicester
Chelsea 2-0 Fulham
Everton 1-2 Villa
United P-P Liverpool
Spurs 4-0 Sheffield United
Burnley 1-2 West Ham

Weekend:
Leicester vs Newcastle
Leeds vs Spurs
City vs Chelsea
Liverpool vs Southampton
West Ham vs Everton

Offline Schmidt

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4638 on: Yesterday at 12:20:13 pm »

While, admittedly, we've been bad, there's no doubt in my mind that it's been the Pandemic and everything that has come with it that screwed us.

Hate to admit it but the pandemic and that prick pickford have really fucked our season more than anything. Yes we've thrown points away recently but the players look fucked.

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Re: The PL run-in
« Reply #4639 on: Yesterday at 12:28:22 pm »
Hate to admit it but the pandemic and that prick pickford have really fucked our season more than anything. Yes we've thrown points away recently but the players look fucked.

Yeah, the injuries are the main thing that's fucked the season. It's meant we've ended up with a much smaller squad of available players who have all had to play more minutes than they would otherwise.

Throw in some horror VAR decisions on top and it's been a bit of a shit show.