Richardson benched.
QB evals have gone sideways again like the older days.
For a period in the 2010s, with the changing game to incorporate spread and option concepts and the prevalence of mobile QBs, so many QBs defied old conventions:
-Russell Wilson: sure he's accurate and a good runner, but he's too short
-Colin Kaepernick: sure he's got a cannon, but he's a runner (was the NCAA all-time leader for rushing TDs by a QB when he left Nevada); ran a gimmicky offense (the Pistol offense was gimmicky even by college standards)
-Cam Newton: sure he'll run over some SEC defenses and do some fun things, but can be a NFL passer?
-Deshaun Watson: one read QB in college; can't start Day 1?
-Justin Herbert: sure big arm but didn't look good at Oregon; overhyped
-Kyler Murray: too short; you can run around, but can he be an elite passer?
-Jalen Hurts: classic old college QB (good for a great college team to move the ball - no chance to develop as a NFL passer)
-Lamar Jackson: incredible athlete and fun but is he really a NFL QB?
-Patrick Mahomes: air raid QB at Texas Tech? Sure he's actually got an NFL arm compared to the old air raid QBs, but that's not a NFL offense
-Jared Goff: the Cal version of Mahomes; air raid under Sonny Dykes? Meh.
-Josh Allen: sure he's a physical freak, but his numbers in college would make Anthony Richardson look like Peyton Manning
But NFL offenses did a great job working, developing, and integrating them into the game. When I saw the Niners line up in the Pistol and run a zone read with Kaepernick, I knew the NFL was changing.
I thought this trend would continue and even QBs that had knocks on them would thrive thanks to the modern offensive thinking. Mitchell Trubisky never took a snap under center in college, and while John Fox never knew what to do, Matt Nagy got him a 2:1 TD/INT ratio by year 2. You don't have to Peyton Manning to put up good numbers sometimes.
But boy since COVID it is a mess.
-Trevor Lawrence: might've actually peaked as a freshman in college; very little development since
-Zach Wilson: not much of a track record; questionable competition level; can he make easy throws?
-Justin Fields: he's got great receivers at Ohio State, and their OL gives him plenty of time to hit deep balls, but can he get rid of the ball quickly in tight windows?
-Trey Lance: very little track record; questionable competition
-Mac Jones: exactly who he is; not physically gifted at all and needs talent around him; won't make the tough throws
-2022: best of bunch are Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, and Malik Willis: meh
-Bryce Young: surely a can't miss prospect; wasn't even on the most talented Bama teams; undersized but a leader
-Anthony Richardson: boom or bust to say the least; basically the same size as Josh Allen with the exact same knocks on accuracy
Now Stroud and Daniels have bucked the trend so far, but questions on the many QBs since 2021 have been answered: as in their knocks are confirmed. It is a far cry from the 2010s, where QBs continued to defy expectations and the position was completely redefined. While there were still bad transitions (like Darnold, Mariota, Winston), the amount of young QBs that came in and sometimes dominated was impressive.
Maybe it's defenses catching up (e.g. two-deep safety looks?). Maybe it's small sample size. Maybe the floor of the college game has been raised (you rarely see defensive showdowns - most good teams can put up big numbers with QBs), but the top end QB prospects have flattened out.
But QB evals and development have seemingly gotten worse.
Perhaps sitting QBs again will help, but given the importance of being competitive with a QB on a rookie contract for cap purposes, GMs seem like they'll keep churning through.
