Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2019-20

[campioni]

If they go at normal title winning form for the rest of the season (90 points) we only need 2 points a game to win the league which is top 4 form.

If we go at 90 points a season form for the rest of the season they need to do the equivalent of a 103 point season.

Obviously it isn't done but they can't afford to slip up before Christmas.

103 is the maximum points total City can get now.

Their league run up to Christmas is:

Chelsea (h)
Newcastle (a)
Burnley (a)
United (h)
Arsenal (a)
Leicester (h)

They will be doing very well to come through that unscathed.

[killer-heels]

103 is the maximum points total City can get now.

Their league run up to Christmas is:

Chelsea (h)
Newcastle (a)
Burnley (a)
United (h)
Arsenal (a)
Leicester (h)

They will be doing very well to come through that unscathed.

They are helped by the fact that the most difficult of those games are at home.

[campioni]

They are helped by the fact that the most difficult of those games are at home.

True, but its still a tricky run of fixtures compared to what they've had so far. Can they do it on a cold Tuesday night in December at Stoke Burnley?

They have pretty much the reverse set of fixtures from mid February to the start of April which finishes with our visit to Eastlands.

[Dull Tools]

True, but its still a tricky run of fixtures compared to what they've had so far. Can they do it on a cold Tuesday night in December at Stoke Burnley?

They have pretty much the reverse set of fixtures from mid February to the start of April which finishes with our visit to Eastlands.

I've seen that. They have the repeat fixtures very quickly and then have a very easy run in.

[BassTunedToRed]

We need to smash these city motherfuckers when we play them. First game in November at Anfield, lets have the place rocking, and for every game this season. Treat every game as a cup final. We are Liverpool FC European Champions!

Sorted 

Just checking in for another season - cheers as always, JP.

[BassTunedToRed]

Love this threat, qudos to JP!

JP - I wonder if you have ever looked at the correlation between title winners and performance in the top 6 mini table.  I am willing to bet this winner of this more often than not wins the title.

City topped it the last two years, but it was Liverpool in 2016/17, City in 2015/16, United in 2014/15, Chelsea in 2013/14...

In 2008/09, United were only third in the top six mini league, but they near enough swept the bottom half of the table. And that's usually what is more likely to count I think. Where the top six contains your title rivals, it's obviously only about a quarter of the available points.

[BassTunedToRed]

Further to my previous point - here's how the Big Six have done against the other 14 teams since the start of last season. Liverpool's form in this area has undoubtedly powered their title challenges.

[BassTunedToRed]

And if you're interested, here's the Other 14 vs Big Six since the start of last season.

Right, I'll shut up now 

[Paul1611]

Great work, thanks BTTR 

[campioni]

Further to my previous point - here's how the Big Six have done against the other 14 teams since the start of last season. Liverpool's form in this area has undoubtedly powered their title challenges.

That is incredible consistency. For as long as I can remember we have watched Liverpool title challenges fade or completely fall apart due to a run of poor results against teams we should be beating.

That's a 91% win rate against the non top six. Maintaining that for the rest of this season (easier said than done) would see us win 19 and draw 2 against the bottom 14, giving us 93 points which I think would be very close to winning the title without even considering the 5 games against the top 6.

[Goalposts for Jumpers]

And if you're interested, here's the Other 14 vs Big Six since the start of last season.

Right, I'll shut up now 

Am I right in thinking that the only points gained by the 3 relegated teams were all against Man Utd?

If so.... 

[BassTunedToRed]

Am I right in thinking that the only points gained by the 3 relegated teams were all against Man Utd?

If so.... 

Good spot!

[Hunts Cross]

Sorted 

Just checking in for another season - cheers as always, JP.

BTTR: Planet Football have published a story using your 38 game table. You may be OK with that, just letting you know.
https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/how-the-premier-league-table-would-look-based-on-the-last-38-games/

[BassTunedToRed]

BTTR: Planet Football have published a story using your 38 game table. You may be OK with that, just letting you know.
https://www.planetfootball.com/quick-reads/how-the-premier-league-table-would-look-based-on-the-last-38-games/

Cheers, I didn't know. The tweet they used for the piece includes a credit to me, so that's okay. And I don't get too bothered about such things anyway (life's too short...) - the nature of sharing stuff on Twitter means it inevitably gets ripped off quite often anyway.

[JP-65]

Sorted 

Just checking in for another season - cheers as always, JP.

Always good to see your contributions Beez

[JP-65]

Am I right in thinking that the only points gained by the 3 relegated teams were all against Man Utd?

If so.... 

There's a wealth of good nuggets of info if one closely scans the charts, well spotted

[JP-65]

Match 13 update:

I've changed the season to go target to 98.  It's consistent with the ongoing logic that the target is something the 2nd place team has never achieved.

I've updated the results matrix to current league positions.  The only top 10 team we haven't played yet is Wolves. 
City, Spurs & United, in that order, have had the easiest fixture list so far.....we've had the toughest.

The top 6 mini table continues to be a thing of beauty

We're still on track with City's 100 point season....they didn't drop another point until match 21, 18 straight wins that season.

[Yosser0_0]

Match 13 update:

I've changed the season to go target to 98.  It's consistent with the ongoing logic that the target is something the 2nd place team has never achieved.

I've updated the results matrix to current league positions.  The only top 10 team we haven't played yet is Wolves. 
City, Spurs & United, in that order, have had the easiest fixture list so far.....we've had the toughest.

The top 6 mini table continues to be a thing of beauty

We're still on track with City's 100 point season....they didn't drop another point until match 21, 18 straight wins that season.

Interesting that we have a bigger lead than City had in that 17/18 season when everybody just seemed to give up chasing them and it was virtually done by January.

[TepidT2O]

So is this saying that city can only afford to drop 5 more points if they want to get to 98

[JP-65]

So is this saying that city can only afford to drop 5 more points if they want to get to 98

Yup

[CanuckYNWA]

So is this saying that city can only afford to drop 5 more points if they want to get to 98

Correct the most points they can currently get is 103 pts if they won every single game till the end of the season. If they lose two games the max they can get is 97 points.

[JP-65]

Interesting that we have a bigger lead than City had in that 17/18 season when everybody just seemed to give up chasing them and it was virtually done by January.

Leicester is on 29, same as United that season.

[Anthony]

75 Points left to play for - and already only the current top 4 can reach 98 points (Chelsea would need to win 24 of the 25 remaining games).

Within the next 5 games we could see the first clubs unable to reach the 70 points level that's traditionally seen as the minimum level for CL qualification (not that Watford or Southampton have a chance anyway). The most Spurs and Man Utd can get at present is 92 points - meaning they have to win a minimum of 14 out of their 25 remaining matches (drawing the other 11) to get to 70.

[royhendo]

The performance level is phenomenal. To think we’re looking at 2.44 ppg and thinking “yeah we can do that” is mind boggling. City have been doing that for so long it feels normal.

Thanks again JP!

[JP-65]

The performance level is phenomenal. To think we’re looking at 2.44 ppg and thinking “yeah we can do that” is mind boggling. City have been doing that for so long it feels normal.

Thanks again JP!

Interesting that Chelsea & Spurs both did 62 points for the remaining 25 fixtures in 16-17, City did 63 in 17-18, City did 63 & we did 64 in 18-19. 

Anything in that area for us this season, and the title is ours @ 99-102 points total.

City, if they match their best @ 63 for the last 2 seasons, are "only" at 91 points. 
Probably says that our levels can decline to the mid-50 point level and we can still likely win it.

[JP-65]

We've gone 21 wins & 1 draw starting with Burnley last season.

When City had their "purple patch" starting in 2016/7 with 4 wins to end the season, & continuing on at the start of their 100 point 2017-8 season.......they went 23 wins & 1 draw.

[Kashinoda]

[zabadoh]

Incredible!  We're +6 points, i.e. we've converted 3 out of 4 draws over last season's equivalent matches.

[Roger Federer]

Incredible!  We're +6 points, i.e. we've converted 3 out of 4 draws over last season's equivalent matches.

It's crazy. I don't think we can expect to match last seasons results from here until the end of the season, but we've given ourselves some margin of error with our brilliant start to the season.

[JP-65]

Match 14 update:

Hopefully Everton's midfield are as shyte Wednesday, as they were today.

[royhendo]

Danke!

[Brian Blessed]

That season to go chart is lush.

In ADFCs 100 season, after 14 they had 40, with an 8 point lead. I’d love a season with as dull a run in as that one.

[Red Beret]

It's getting now that a team will need 95 points to guarantee top two.  Crazy!

[royhendo]

Mr Bradley’s rolling 38 gamer...
https://mobile.twitter.com/BassTunedToRed/status/1201212204948824064

[Roger Federer]

Saw on his twitter that the best 24 game period by City since 17/18 (probably ever, I'd guess) is 65 points, 2.7 points/game, which was their first 24 games of that season (21 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss). If they go on such a run again, they finish on 94 points. We'd need 55 points to beat them. Not easy, but we got 61 last year, and it is a quite a bit less than our current average since the start of last season.

[G a r y]

Might be worth fucking off Arsenal and United and adding Leicester to these stats

[BassTunedToRed]

Mr Bradley’s rolling 38 gamer...
https://mobile.twitter.com/BassTunedToRed/status/1201212204948824064

Bradley or Beasley? 

[PoetryInMotion]

Bradley or Beasley? 

 

[royhendo]

My phone evidently wants to call you Bradley, John.

[BassTunedToRed]

My phone evidently wants to call you Bradley, John.

No problem, Rob