Topic: Typhoid Trump: the not-smart, corrupt, coward, loser, thread

[Iska]

More importantly, it drives home the fact that Trump is STILL the worst polling first term president in history.

That doesn’t translate though.  Previous presidents have tried to be presidents of all Americans, but Trump’s strategy is to be president of half of Americans.  In that context 40odd%, plus enough voters who’ll hold their nose and vote for him anyway, might as well be much higher.  I don’t know how you get yourselves out of such a polarised situation, but you’ve got to.

[Red Beret]

That doesn’t translate though.  Previous presidents have tried to be presidents of all Americans, but Trump’s strategy is to be president of half of Americans.  In that context 40odd%, plus enough voters who’ll hold their nose and vote for him anyway, might as well be much higher.  I don’t know how you get yourselves out of such a polarised situation, but you’ve got to.

He's at 42%.  He's still below the worst polling numbers of previous presidents at this stage - and this is arguably his HIGH point.

As things stand he has 90% support amongst 38% of his numbers; the rest is wiggle room via independents.  Now he can try to play Thatcher's game of propping up 45% of the people at the expense of the rest, but the US isn't the UK.  He's effectively head of state of 52 countries, each with their own economy and unique needs.  And most of his policies will hurt his own support most, who will vote for him regardless.  So the damage can conceivably be contained within these states and still leave the rest to play for in an election.

He's not really winning over anybody.  His poll numbers will fluctuate certainly but if you look at that graph the long term trend for Trump can only be downwards.  He'd have to do something epically historic, in a manner unheard of in recent history to turn this around.  He wont get that from starting a war.

As I understand it, no presidential candidate of recent times has won the presidency without winning Ohio?  So I guess you just look at Ohio.

Plus I imagine the next Democrat candidate wont forget to campaign in certain states and assume they're a shoe in to win...

[Iska]

if you look at that graph the long term trend for Trump can only be downwards.

He can keep going sideways, and that might be enough.  God help us all if that’s how politics works now though.

So I guess you just look at Ohio.

How is Ohio?  The other side effect of the internet age, other than the polarisation, is that anything with an angle, you don’t feel you can get accurate information anymore.  I don’t even know which actual news sources to trust.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Meanwhile the other walking heart attack was with his mate nige today on lbc, lovely fella

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1018452436057513984?s=21

[Purple Red]

He's quite clearly a cringeworthy bell end but equally cringeworthy is some of the supposed defiant protests against him in recent days in the UK. They had that big baby balloon up in Scotland and a young hipster leftist was asked to explain it. He said something along the lines of, "We have a right to mock and deride Trump." But that was the end of his political reasoning. Of course, it is a cherished right to mock useless politicians as it is a powerful tool in spreading progressive messages but if that's all you can do then quite simply it will achieve fuck all against the Republican puppet masters in Washington and their prize show pony.

Instead of getting kids to scrawl barely literate posters against Evil Mr. Trump, it would be better if parents actually became politically active. The number of protestors at the demonstrations who are actually doing nothing in face of political turmoil is bordering on preposterous. I'm from Northern Ireland so I avoid the mainstream political parties like the plague but I do get involved in community groups and things which genuinely benefit those who are getting truly screwed over by the system of governance in the UK and the USA. I'm a teacher as well so I like to think I gently prevent young minds swinging to extremes.

I have no time for people who are all talk and do nothing. They are easy fodder for corporate and political America. If these protests were actually full of people who want to make a difference, I might think about going to one of them. As it stands, though, hot air is easily blown away by the distorted democracies we live in. Just my opinion, though.

[Red Beret]

He can keep going sideways, and that might be enough.  God help us all if that’s how politics works now though.

No president goes sideways forever.  As I said, right now his absolute best is matching the absolute worst of previous presidents.  Given his current form his rating cannot remain static for two years; it will either go up or down.  And going up would be upsetting at least 30 years of historical precedent. 

But then, Trump's entire presidency is built on upsetting historical precedent, and upsetting a whole lot of other things too....

How is Ohio?  The other side effect of the internet age, other than the polarisation, is that anything with an angle, you don’t feel you can get accurate information anymore.  I don’t even know which actual news sources to trust.

I have no idea how Ohio is.  I'm just saying it is probably the best yardstick to measure by, based on past elections.

If Trump and his people manage to successfully push the narrative that "he's going to win anyway, so just accept it," he might generate enough defeatist apathy to hold onto power, but he has to fight the mid terms first.

"You're a puppet."
"No, YOU'RE the puppet."

"The Republicans are facing a Blue Wave."
"No, there's going to be a RED Wave."

The media have to work harder to prevent Trump from controlling the agenda.  In the meantime though, Trump continues to gaslight his entire country.

[jambutty]

Didn't know who Jerry Nadler was a few hours ago. Now straight up love the guy. He nailed the Chairman to the wall at the start of that hearing with is hypocrisy bullshit. Don't know any more of him than what I saw and heard in these hearings, so if he previously took a mini-gun to a schoolbus or something, I will retract my above glowing endorsement of him.

He's a solidly entrenched liberal, orthodox Jewish Brooklyn Congressman who will always speak his mind.  A decent guy.

[ShakaHislop]

Regarding the approval ratings (for all presidents), I think this is quite an interesting resource.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

[Djozer]

No president goes sideways forever.  As I said, right now his absolute best is matching the absolute worst of previous presidents.  Given his current form his rating cannot remain static for two years; it will either go up or down.  And going up would be upsetting at least 30 years of historical precedent. 

But then, Trump's entire presidency is built on upsetting historical precedent, and upsetting a whole lot of other things too....

I have no idea how Ohio is.  I'm just saying it is probably the best yardstick to measure by, based on past elections.

If Trump and his people manage to successfully push the narrative that "he's going to win anyway, so just accept it," he might generate enough defeatist apathy to hold onto power, but he has to fight the mid terms first.

"You're a puppet."
"No, YOU'RE the puppet."

"The Republicans are facing a Blue Wave."
"No, there's going to be a RED Wave."

The media have to work harder to prevent Trump from controlling the agenda.  In the meantime though, Trump continues to gaslight his entire country.

I think the sideways - and even slightly upwards - trend in terms of polling will continue as long as the economy is doing well and the employment rate keeps falling, provided there are no major scandals (minor ones seem to come and go every week for this administration, and people don't bat an eyelid anymore) and Mueller finds no incontrovertible evidence of conspiracy with Russia regarding the election.

It seems unlikely to me that the economy will continue to improve - at some point his trade war will probably start to bite, jobs will likely start to rise and/or the inflation of prices in some goods and services may lead to a recession. Should this happen I think he's likely to start slipping again, and even without his stupid tariff bullying spree some form of economic downturn seems likely in the not too distant future (in my totally inexpert opinion only, of course).

Like you say though, he seems to buck all historical precedent, so none of this may happen and he'll somehow sail on through regardless, wrecking international peace treaties, reciprocal trade agreements and the environment in general, and entirely rejigging the US judiciary with regressive conservatives. I've pretty much resigned myself to a second term of this human horror show and all the associated fucking up of the world that such an event would likely bring. It's not so much that I expect it, more that I no longer have any clue what to expect, so I might as well mentally prepare myself for the worst and then anything else is a pleasant surprise.

[ShakaHislop]

Puerto Rico flag row prompts hate crime case for Illinois man

A man who was recorded haranguing a woman for wearing a Puerto Rico flag shirt at an Illinois park has been charged with a hate crime.

Timothy Trybus, 62, was previously charged with disorderly conduct and assault.

He allegedly demanded to know if a Latina picnicker was a US citizen in last month's incident.

A police officer who was filmed standing by as Mia Irizarry, 24, pleaded for his help has quit.

Mr Trybus faces a bail hearing on Friday on two counts of felony hate crime.

Ms Irizarry used her mobile phone to film the confrontation, which unfolded on 14 June as she set up a picnic for her birthday at Caldwell Woods in the Chicago suburbs.

In the viral clip a white man approaches her and demands to know why she is wearing her shirt, which had "Puerto Rico" written on it.

"You should not be wearing that in the United States of America," he shouts, repeatedly jabbing his finger at her.

"Are you a citizen? Are you a United States citizen?"
 
Ms Irizarry calls on a nearby park police officer for help.

But the officer, Patrick Connor, turns his back and walks towards his patrol car.

The suspect continued to harangue Ms Irizarry for about 10 minutes before other officers arrived and arrested him.

The Forest Preserve District of Cook County Police Department - where Mr Connor worked for 12 years - announced he had resigned late on Wednesday.
 
At a press conference on Thursday, Superintendent Arnold Randall said Mr Connor was "very remorseful" when he resigned.

But he said the officer considered it "an unfortunate incident" and felt he was not "given a fair shake".

Mr Randall added that Mr Connor's personnel file will say that he did not leave "in good standing", and will include a note that he left "with discipline pending".

He added that officials will review the mandatory diversity training that officers are required to take. Mr Connor had taken the course a year ago, officials say.
 
In an earlier statement, the police said that an investigation had been launched and the officer had been placed on desk duty.

In the unedited video, Mr Connor is seen trying to reassure the victim that Mr Trybus does not pose a threat to her safety.

Supt Randall said that Ms Irizarry deserved to be praised for her response amid a national trend of "racially charged, abusive incidents we're seeing throughout the country".

"We might start with the fine example presented by Mia Irizarry and her family, who handled this ugly incident with great composure, never stooping to the level of the man who attacked her," he said in a written statement.

He added that the park staff had apologised directly to Ms Irizarry and refunded the money she paid for her permit.

The video had angered public officials in the state of Illinois, as well as the governor of Puerto Rico.

The island of Puerto Rico is a US territory.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44802126

Ms Irizarry tells him Puerto Rico is part of the US, politely addressing the man as "sir".

"We don't own Puerto Rico," the man replies. "Are you educated?"

She asks a park police officer to help, saying: "I am renting this area and he's harassing me about the shirt that I'm wearing."

But the policeman does nothing.

She says: "Officer, I'm renting, I paid for a permit for this area."
 
"I do not feel comfortable with him here, is there anything you can do?"

But the officer walks away.

Coming closer, the man says: "You're not gonna change us, you know that?"

"OK, OK," Ms Irizarry says, trying to placate him.

Pointing at her, the man says: "You're not American, if you were American you wouldn't wear that.
 
"Why is she wearing that [expletive]?"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44788850

[ShakaHislop]

Woman arrested for allegedly beating 92-yr-old with brick

Authorities arrested Laquisha Jones, 30, on Tuesday night for assault with a deadly weapon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44797913

Meanwhile, a 30-year-old woman has been charged with attempted murder after allegedly using a brick to bludgeon a 92-year-old man near Los Angeles.

Laquisha Jones was also charged with elder abuse over the 4 July attack.

A witness said Ms Jones told the victim, Rodolfo Rodriguez: "Go back to your country."

Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department said the assault may have been triggered by Mr Rodriguez bumping into a young girl who was with Ms Jones.

He suffered a broken jaw, broken cheekbones, two broken ribs and bruises on his face, back and abdomen, US media report.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44802126

[Red Beret]

Regarding the approval ratings (for all presidents), I think this is quite an interesting resource.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx?g_source=WWWV7HP&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles

Interesting.  Shows that only on a handful of occasions did Obama's approval rating dip as low as Trump's absolute best - 40-43% compared to Trump's 45%.

[ShakaHislop]

US claims all eligible migrant toddlers reunited with parents

A majority of migrant children age five and under who were detained under the US immigration "zero-tolerance" policy have been reunited with their families.

Officials say 57 of the 103 children separated at the US-Mexico border were returned to parents as of Thursday.

But 46 children were ineligible for reunification, including some whose parents had already been deported.

Another 2,000 to 3,000 migrant children ages five to 17 must be reunited by 26 July, a US judge has ordered.

"As of this morning, the initial reunifications were completed. Throughout the reunification process our goal has been the well-being of the children and returning them to a safe environment," Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar, Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen and Attorney General Jeff Sessions said in a joint statement on Thursday.

"Of course, there remains a tremendous amount of hard work and similar obstacles facing our teams in reuniting the remaining families. The Trump administration does not approach this mission lightly, and we intend to continue our good faith efforts to reunify families."

The announcement comes two days after a court-ordered deadline to return the youngest of the children.

Officials said on Thursday that 22 children were unable be reunited with the adults that brought them illegally across the US border due to safety concerns.

Other children were determined to be ineligible to be returned to their parents for reasons including:

• 11 adults were found to have serious criminal histories
• Seven were determined not to be the child's parent
• One adult had a communicable disease
• One adult allegedly abused a child while another planned to house the child with someone who had been charged with child abuse

Another 24 children were not eligible because parents were in custody for other criminal offences, officials were unable to locate them or they had already been deported back to their country of origin.

When asked about the deported parents in a conference call with reporters, federal officials said they are under "no obligation to bring people who have no lawful status in this country back into this country for reunification".

"These individuals had the opportunity to take the child with them when they were removed in the first place," said Matthew Albence, an official with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The parents are now being contacted through their embassies, he said, and will be given the option of having their children sent back to them.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44813033

[ShakaHislop]

China trade surplus with US hits record high in June

China's monthly trade surplus with the US hit a record high of nearly $29bn (£22bn) in June as exports to America remained strong.

The figures come a week after the trade war between the two began, with the US imposing tariffs on $34bn of Chinese goods, and China retaliating.

This week, Washington threatened to impose 10% tariffs on another $200bn of Chinese imports.

Analysts expect to see the impact of the tariffs in July's figures.

"We expect the trade numbers for July to disappoint since that's when the first round of US tariffs took effect," said Amy Zhuang, China analyst at Nordea Bank in Singapore.

"Still, we do not expect a plunge because those tariffs only targeted $34bn worth of goods which is fairly small compared to China's total trade", she said.

In the first six months of the year, China's exports to the US rose 13.6% from a year earlier, while imports from the US increased by 11.8%. Its trade surplus with the US over the same period was $133.76bn, up from $117.51bn last year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44818316


US lifts order against China's ZTE

The US has lifted an order that blocked Chinese tech giant ZTE from doing business with US companies, forcing the firm to halt major operations.

US President Donald Trump had intervened to end the ban, which was imposed in April and tied to ZTE violations of US sanctions against Iran and North Korea.

Instead the US said ZTE would be fined and forced to shake up its management.

The US Commerce Department said the firm had now complied with all steps.

ZTE paid a $1bn penalty last month and has now placed an additional $400m in a holding account against further violations, the Commerce Department said on Friday.

"While we lifted the ban on ZTE, the Department will remain vigilant as we closely monitor ZTE's actions to ensure compliance with all US laws and regulations," US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said.

ZTE, China's second largest telecoms manufacturer, depends on American-made components for the production of its handsets.

It suspended major operations this spring after the US imposed the ban. The US said the firm had lied about punishing employees involved in violating US sanctions against North Korea and Iran.

President Trump asked the US Commerce Department to reconsider the ban in May at the request of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The decision was controversial in the US. Some politicians in Congress are trying to take action to reinstate the original penalty, citing national security concerns about the company.

"ZTE should be put out of business," Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican from Florida, said on Friday.

"We must put American jobs and national security first, which is why I have urged NDAA conferees to ensure the bipartisan provision to reinstate penalties against ZTE is included in the final bill."

The US has said the new penalty is significant. ZTE also paid the US almost $900m in 2017 for the sanctions violations.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44825878

[ShakaHislop]

US lawmaker caught speeding tells cop he often does so

An Arizona state lawmaker bragged to a police officer that he sometimes drives more than double the speed limit - after he was pulled over for speeding.

Police stopped Representative Paul Mosley for going 97mph (156km/h) in a 55mph zone near Parker, Arizona, on 27 March in a filmed incident.

Mr Mosley said he would go "130, 140" mph on his way home and told the cop he had legislative immunity.

The lawmaker has posted an apology on his Facebook page.

In the video, first reported by KLPZ, Mr Mosely tells the officer who pulled him over that he "didn't even notice" his speed because of his "nice" car.

"I'm trying to surprise my wife," he said, adding that he only speeds "as long as it's safe".

Mr Mosley also tells the La Paz County officer he does not break the law because he can, but "because I'm just trying to get home".

The deputy's written report also stated that the Republican lawmaker said they should not waste time on the incident since he has legislative immunity.

In his apology, Mr Mosley said: "My desire to get home to see my family does not justify how fast I was speeding nor my reference to legislative immunity when being pulled over."

He adds: "In addition, my jokes about frequently driving over 100 miles per hour during my 3-hour commute to and from the capitol were entirely inappropriate and showed extremely bad judgement on my part, for which I am truly sorry."

Mr Mosely was elected in 2016 and is running for re-election in November.

A top Arizona lawmaker, Speaker J D Mesnard, said in a statement he was "disturbed" by the video.

"Nothing short of an emergency justifies that kind of speeding, and assertions of immunity in that situation seem outside the intent of the constitutional provision regarding legislative immunity," said Mr Mesnard.

CBS News reported the Arizona Fraternal Order of Police has revoked its endorsement of Mr Mosley due to his speeding.

In a statement, John Ortolano, the order's president, condemned the lawmaker's "recklessness, his demeanor and his utter disregard for the safety of the public".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-44827135

[ShakaHislop]

Congress Moves to Force Trump to Come Clean on North Korea Talks

A bipartisan group of lawmakers has introduced a bill that would, in the words of an aide involved in the process, give the administration some diplomatic “training wheels” and ensure that officials don’t agree to give away more concessions before North Korea’s nuclear capabilities are fully evaluated.

The North Korea Policy Oversight Act would require the administration to report every 30 days to Congress on the progress of denuclearization talks, and it mandates that the director of national intelligence and the secretary of state brief lawmakers after each round of talks between the two countries. It would also express Congress’ will that any final deal be submitted to the Senate for approval through the treaty process, and that economic sanctions remain in place until Pyongyang takes verifiable steps toward scrapping its nukes. Notably, the legislation also aims to prevent Trump from withdrawing forces from the region—something he has privately mulled.

On Wednesday, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the vice chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, wrote a letter to Dan Coats, the director of national intelligence, asking whether the president’s optimistic statements about Pyongyang’s overall posture are in line with U.S. intelligence assessments.

“I want to get reassured that the intelligence community has not changed its view that North Korea is a threat, because I believe it is still a threat. We have no indication that we’re going to have a verifiable agreement on how we denuclearize,” Warner told The Daily Beast. “We need to make sure responsible folks in the government are telling us as an equal branch of government the full facts and truth.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/congress-moves-to-force-trump-to-come-clean-on-north-korea-talks


Warner's letter

https://www.scribd.com/document/383672861/2018-07-11-Warner-to-Coats-Re-North-Korea

[Red Beret]

I think the sideways - and even slightly upwards - trend in terms of polling will continue as long as the economy is doing well and the employment rate keeps falling, provided there are no major scandals (minor ones seem to come and go every week for this administration, and people don't bat an eyelid anymore) and Mueller finds no incontrovertible evidence of conspiracy with Russia regarding the election.

It seems unlikely to me that the economy will continue to improve - at some point his trade war will probably start to bite, jobs will likely start to rise and/or the inflation of prices in some goods and services may lead to a recession. Should this happen I think he's likely to start slipping again, and even without his stupid tariff bullying spree some form of economic downturn seems likely in the not too distant future (in my totally inexpert opinion only, of course).

Like you say though, he seems to buck all historical precedent, so none of this may happen and he'll somehow sail on through regardless, wrecking international peace treaties, reciprocal trade agreements and the environment in general, and entirely rejigging the US judiciary with regressive conservatives. I've pretty much resigned myself to a second term of this human horror show and all the associated fucking up of the world that such an event would likely bring. It's not so much that I expect it, more that I no longer have any clue what to expect, so I might as well mentally prepare myself for the worst and then anything else is a pleasant surprise.

The main issue is that most of Trump's current wounds are self inflicted.  Some major issues, like Hurricane Irma was surely a bad dent, and we can expect more natural and geo political problems as Trump's presidency progresses. 

I agree it's hard to see the bright side because Mueller is compelled to keep silent which allows Trump's people to set the agenda.

Puerto Rico flag row prompts hate crime case for Illinois man

But he said the officer considered it "an unfortunate incident" and felt he was not "given a fair shake".

Mr Randall added that Mr Connor's personnel file will say that he did not leave "in good standing", and will include a note that he left "with discipline pending".

He added that officials will review the mandatory diversity training that officers are required to take. Mr Connor had taken the course a year ago, officials say.
 
In an earlier statement, the police said that an investigation had been launched and the officer had been placed on desk duty.

In the unedited video, Mr Connor is seen trying to reassure the victim that Mr Trybus does not pose a threat to her safety.

What Tosh.  Now maybe he was anxious to avoid an escalation by intervening but to effectively abandon somebody to racial abuse is absurd.  It's also annoying he was allowed to resign and escape disciplinary action.

[kavah]

The most poweful man ever, and possibly the most stupid

[WhereAngelsPlay]

So todays brainfart is that he EU is a foe yet just the other day he said that Russia was neither friend nor foe.


Somebody needs to explain in story book fashion how you have to include services when tallying up trade figures.

[So… Howard Philips]

So todays brainfart is that he EU is a foe yet just the other day he said that Russia was neither friend nor foe.


Somebody needs to explain in story book fashion how you have to include services when tallying up trade figures.

When I did economics back in the 60s services (e.g banking and insurance) were called 'invisible exports'. They probably are still invisible to Trump.

[Red Beret]

I remember once, maybe about five or seven years ago, remarking to my brother (the sociopath one) that I wouldn't be surprised if Europe and the US ended up at war sometime this century.  He scoffed at the idea, as did the political science lecturer he says he brought it up with.

All these different sides and nobody seems to be on the right one.

[rafathegaffa83]

So todays brainfart is that he EU is a foe yet just the other day he said that Russia was neither friend nor foe.


Somebody needs to explain in story book fashion how you have to include services when tallying up trade figures.

CBS News@CBSNews
.@POTUS on why EU is a foe: "Both my parents were born in EU sectors... And, you know, I love those countries. I respect the leaders of those countries, but in a trade sense, they've really taken advantage of us, and many of those countries are in NATO."

So much wrong with this quote. For starters his dad was born in New York in 1905. Also EU sectors?

[Red Beret]

But Putin is just such a swell guy... 

[Robinred]

But Putin is just such a swell guy... 

It’s transparently obvious to even a casual observer who can join the dots, that Trump’s rhetoric with regard to NATO, the EU, Brexit and trade is all of a piece - he’s in Putin’s pocket, and his agenda is Putin’s.

A tragedy for European/US relations, and the citizens thereof.

[Red Beret]

It’s transparently obvious to even a casual observer who can join the dots, that Trump’s rhetoric with regard to NATO, the EU, Brexit and trade is all of a piece - he’s in Putin’s pocket, and his agenda is Putin’s.

A tragedy for European/US relations, and the citizens thereof.

And a Grade A insult from Republicans who continue to back him.  Hope Mueller can pin all the bastards down as accessories to treason.  There's no ignorance in their behaviour - they know exactly what they are doing.

[Zeb]

And a Grade A insult from Republicans who continue to back him.  Hope Mueller can pin all the bastards down as accessories to treason.  There's no ignorance in their behaviour - they know exactly what they are doing.

Mueller's main case looks far more likely to be around theft and being accessories to theft. Will actually be fascinating to see what he's willing to reveal of USA intelligence's knowledge when it comes to Trump selling himself to the highest bidders. It won't just be Russia. It'll be the Gulf States, the House of Saud, and Bibi too. But is that going to go be in something Mueller presses charges over or is it going to be sat in a file for the Gang of Eight to chew over some years more down the line?

[soxfan]

This quote sums up this pile of orange shit pretty well, doesn't it?

Mr. Morgan eventually brought up Mr. Putin, asking if Mr. Trump considered him a ruthless dictator.

“I assume he probably is,” Mr. Trump replied. “I think we could probably get along very well.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/world/europe/trump-putin-summit-meeting.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

[Gnurglan]

I think the sideways - and even slightly upwards - trend in terms of polling will continue as long as the economy is doing well and the employment rate keeps falling, provided there are no major scandals (minor ones seem to come and go every week for this administration, and people don't bat an eyelid anymore) and Mueller finds no incontrovertible evidence of conspiracy with Russia regarding the election.

It seems unlikely to me that the economy will continue to improve - at some point his trade war will probably start to bite, jobs will likely start to rise and/or the inflation of prices in some goods and services may lead to a recession. Should this happen I think he's likely to start slipping again, and even without his stupid tariff bullying spree some form of economic downturn seems likely in the not too distant future (in my totally inexpert opinion only, of course).

Like you say though, he seems to buck all historical precedent, so none of this may happen and he'll somehow sail on through regardless, wrecking international peace treaties, reciprocal trade agreements and the environment in general, and entirely rejigging the US judiciary with regressive conservatives. I've pretty much resigned myself to a second term of this human horror show and all the associated fucking up of the world that such an event would likely bring. It's not so much that I expect it, more that I no longer have any clue what to expect, so I might as well mentally prepare myself for the worst and then anything else is a pleasant surprise.

We have to be optimistic, believe that America will find the way forward. The Democrates will have to find something new for the next election though.

We all know what Trump will do. He will act like a bully. He will do his alpha male routine. It's his weakness. In that sense, he is easy to predict. He is about attention and he is bad with facts. A good candidate could make him look really stupid.

[Trada]

I think Paul Mason is right on Twitter, With Trumps people having a word with the British Government about Robinsons jail term.

When he gets out of jail the mega money will start to roll in for him to start a Alt-Right party here.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Has the orange one fucked off yet?

Just to quote myself again.


I recon he's going home to be debriefed..... and I'm not talking about the hookers in his hotel room. 

The only explanation for Trump's behaviour is that he is indeed a Manchurian Candidate. I keep hearing pundits talk about what Trump should be saying to Putin, should they meet, etc., as though Trump is making an error. Once you have accepted (as all the evidence suggests) that Trump is Putin's puppet, Trump is behaving exactly as we should expect. There is nothing more to understand or expect from Trump.

[Zeb]

NYT are piecing together the fallout from Mueller's last set of indictments. They hone in on Roger Stone and a 'journalist' called Lee Stranahan, who was at Breitbart at the time and is now with Russian channel Sputnik. Something to keep in mind reading through it all is that it really doesn't matter who you think the person giving you stolen things is. You don't need to know that it's Russian military intelligence you're asking to share their stolen data with you. Roger Stone is in quite a bit of trouble.

[Giono]

NYT are piecing together the fallout from Mueller's last set of indictments. They hone in on Roger Stone and a 'journalist' called Lee Stranahan, who was at Breitbart at the time and is now with Russian channel Sputnik. Something to keep in mind reading through it all is that it really doesn't matter who you think the person giving you stolen things is. You don't need to know that it's Russian military intelligence you're asking to share their stolen data with you. Roger Stone is in quite a bit of trouble.

Roger Stone is screwed. I think they are not in a hurry to indict him. I think they are just turning up the heat to what see what crawls out.

[Zeb]

Roger Stone is screwed. I think they are not in a hurry to indict him. I think they are just turning up the heat to what see what crawls out.

Thought his initial line of defence was clever - "I didn't deal with just anybody in the campaign - I was talking to Trump directly." See where that one goes.

Was reading Clinton's comms. director's twitter about it all. Trump shifted ad buys in the 'blue wall' not long after the Trump campaign received the Clinton campaign's data. With margins that small, I think it's reasonable to say it cost Clinton the election. Either that or the whole analytics thing is BS and a waste of time. See who all else in the Trump campaign gets pulled into it now, I suppose. Kushner's got to be close to things there too. How many profiles of him as the data wizard brains behind the campaign were there?

[soxfan]

 

Donald J. Trump
✔
@realDonaldTrump
 Congratulations to France, who played extraordinary soccer, on winning the 2018 World Cup. Additionally, congratulations to President Putin and Russia for putting on a truly great World Cup Tournament -- one of the best ever!

1:03 PM - Jul 15, 2018

Hillary Clinton
✔
@HillaryClinton
 Great World Cup. Question for President Trump as he meets Putin: Do you know which team you play for?

8:15 PM - Jul 15, 2018

[Giono]

Thought his initial line of defence was clever - "I didn't deal with just anybody in the campaign - I was talking to Trump directly." See where that one goes.

Was reading Clinton's comms. director's twitter about it all. Trump shifted ad buys in the 'blue wall' not long after the Trump campaign received the Clinton campaign's data. With margins that small, I think it's reasonable to say it cost Clinton the election. Either that or the whole analytics thing is BS and a waste of time. See who all else in the Trump campaign gets pulled into it now, I suppose. Kushner's got to be close to things there too. How many profiles of him as the data wizard brains behind the campaign were there?

I’m thinking some lowerdown folks are going to get scared. Like that Sam Nunberg dude. They are going to sing. They know they won’t get any pardon from Trump.


These new indictments have ramped up the seriousness of the charges that could be laid.

[Red Beret]

Mueller's main case looks far more likely to be around theft and being accessories to theft. Will actually be fascinating to see what he's willing to reveal of USA intelligence's knowledge when it comes to Trump selling himself to the highest bidders. It won't just be Russia. It'll be the Gulf States, the House of Saud, and Bibi too. But is that going to go be in something Mueller presses charges over or is it going to be sat in a file for the Gang of Eight to chew over some years more down the line?

Theft is part of the broader case of Russian interference in the election, as is collusion.

There are so many facets to this investigation - handling stolen goods (emails); taking foreign money; corruption; being compromised and coerced by a hostile foreign power.

Some will have jumped on board solely for the money and influence peddling (reckon Flynn falls into this category); others likely had no choice because they were already neck deep. (Manafort; Cohen likely has a foot in both camps).

But coming back to my original point, if any of this can be directly linked back to Trump then anybody currently trying to torpedo Mueller's investigation, sink Rosenstein, etc, should be considered an accessory to attempting to obstruct justice at the very least. 

And ignorance cannot be considered an excuse; if you're knowingly handling stolen data it doesn't matter who stole it.  Equally, all intelligence agencies agree and have briefed both houses that Russia definitely fucked over the Presidential election.  With the Steele dossier and whatever Mueller turns up, the likes of Nunes, Gowdy, McConnell, Ryan, etc can't pretend that they didn't know how serious the situation was.  They're knowingly protecting a president who is neck deep in a scandal that makes Watergate look like jaywalking. 

If Trump falls then they need to go as well.

[Zeb]

[

Theft is part of the broader case of Russian interference in the election, as is collusion.

There are so many facets to this investigation - handling stolen goods (emails); taking foreign money; corruption; being compromised and coerced by a hostile foreign power.

Some will have jumped on board solely for the money and influence peddling (reckon Flynn falls into this category); others likely had no choice because they were already neck deep. (Manafort; Cohen likely has a foot in both camps).

But coming back to my original point, if any of this can be directly linked back to Trump then anybody currently trying to torpedo Mueller's investigation, sink Rosenstein, etc, should be considered an accessory to attempting to obstruct justice at the very least. 

And ignorance cannot be considered an excuse; if you're knowingly handling stolen data it doesn't matter who stole it.  Equally, all intelligence agencies agree and have briefed both houses that Russia definitely fucked over the Presidential election.  With the Steele dossier and whatever Mueller turns up, the likes of Nunes, Gowdy, McConnell, Ryan, etc can't pretend that they didn't know how serious the situation was.  They're knowingly protecting a president who is neck deep in a scandal that makes Watergate look like jaywalking. 

If Trump falls then they need to go as well.

Collusion isn't a thing for a criminal prosecution though. And, so far, the evidence Mueller has released points to a series of thefts and everything else relates to them - whether ID theft or money laundering or picking up the stolen information or requesting the stolen information be provided. If you notice something, it's that Mueller is pushing to one side everything which isn't directly related to that. Manafort's dubious backstory? Prosecuted on its own merits. Cohen's? SDNY are doing the investigation.

Point I'm making is that there's a criminal investigation, with offshoots, and a series of counter-intelligence ones, and I'm curious as to how far the counter-intelligence ones will cross over into the criminal given just how wide ranging Trump's outside contacts appear to have been and the typical desire of intelligence agencies not to broadcast exactly how much they know. And it may not be for the lawman to fix the political problems (ie not criminal) such as McConnell refusing to act in a bipartisan fashion or Trump's muppets in congress using their powers to investigate to try and derail things. eg  Rohrabacher was told by the FBI years ago that the Russian intelligence services considered him valuable enough to give a code name. Zero fucks given by Dana, who is still elected to Congress.

[Red Beret]

[
Collusion isn't a thing for a criminal prosecution though. And, so far, the evidence Mueller has released points to a series of thefts and everything else relates to them - whether ID theft or money laundering or picking up the stolen information or requesting the stolen information be provided. If you notice something, it's that Mueller is pushing to one side everything which isn't directly related to that. Manafort's dubious backstory? Prosecuted on its own merits. Cohen's? SDNY are doing the investigation.

Point I'm making is that there's a criminal investigation, with offshoots, and a series of counter-intelligence ones, and I'm curious as to how far the counter-intelligence ones will cross over into the criminal given just how wide ranging Trump's outside contacts appear to have been and the typical desire of intelligence agencies not to broadcast exactly how much they know. And it may not be for the lawman to fix the political problems (ie not criminal) such as McConnell refusing to act in a bipartisan fashion or Trump's muppets in congress using their powers to investigate to try and derail things. eg  Rohrabacher was told by the FBI years ago that the Russian intelligence services considered him valuable enough to give a code name. Zero fucks given by Dana, who is still elected to Congress.

And I get that.  Everything you say is perfectly valid, but it's also only based on what we know.  Mueller has at least a hundred times the evidence in the public domain, which is what is freaking the GOP out.

Whilst it is of course very true that Mueller is pursuing indictable crimes that can be definitively proven, we can't say with any degree of certainty what, if anything, Mueller might be pushing to one side.  All we know is that he's not releasing anything directly related to Trump, but clearly proving through his indictments that meddling took place.  The GOP are desperate for any information that links these two because they are desperate to discredit it.  If Trump HAS attempted to obstruct justice then don't they become accessories to that fact?

But I do have to ask, since when is collusion with a hostile foreign power NOT a crime?  It's collaboration at best, treason at worst; and it involves the President of the United States.  If Trump is impeached on the grounds of high crimes and misdemeanours, then those looking to derail the investigation have a lot to answer for.   

PS: in other news, I noted a video title on youtube: Trump says witch hunt has damaged ties with Russia.   Of course though, Trump is responsible for damaging ties with just about everybody else - just a question of whether he was under orders to do it.

[stoa]

Is Christiane Amanpour sitting there sipping a "White Russian" on the CNN live coverage. That would be great...

[ChaChaMooMoo]

If Trump is impeached on the grounds of high crimes and misdemeanours, then those looking to derail the investigation have a lot to answer for.   

I can imagine how this conversation would go.

Reporter: Senator/Congressman. You stood by Trump through his presidency and now he is impeached on the grounds of high crimes and misdemeanours. Doesn't that make you answerable for your actions in the events that ran up to the impeachment?

Senator/Congressman: There is a due process in our country and that's "Innocent until proven guilty". I stood by him when I thought he was innocent. This impeachment once again proves that no one, including the president, is above the law. And that's why I work so hard to do my bit to uphold the great standards of the great American constitution.

Reporter: Does that mean you don't stand by him now?

Senator/Congressman: He is impeached isn't he?

*Gets reelected in Congress*