Author Topic: Liverpool's Midfield  (Read 1807631 times)

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7800 on: March 16, 2015, 03:49:19 pm »
I think "assists" can be a useful stat, if used correctly. Clearly, for an assist to happen involves factors outside of the player in question's control. But the same is also true of pass completion, and statos love pass completion.

For me, a good example was Downing. (Or rather a bad example.) In the "chance created" stats, he was always doing very well. He would put balls into the box into places where statistically you might expect them to lead to goals. But he got very, very few assists. And it wasn't because of any problems with the strikers so much as the fact that those were not, in fact, good balls that he was playing in.

A player who gets high numbers of assists a season, even if he's playing with a world class striker, you know he must be doing something right. A player who can't get any assists, yes, it could be that he's up front with a donkey, but even then, there are ways of playing someone in, of learning to anticipate their movement and positioning, however poor it is, where you increase their chances of scoring by giving them the ball at the right moment for them.

Chance creation sounds pretty vague, and in reality it is held up against a very specific set of guidelines, but assists cuts through a lot of the noise and deals purely in outcomes. It's not perfect, but it can be a very useful indicator.
Expected Assists is a nice metric that cuts through a lot of these issues on both sides, though sadly isn't widely available. (Ionically Downing was doing very well on this metric since leaving us!) Broadly agree with this post though.

Offline Nessy76

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7801 on: March 16, 2015, 03:49:45 pm »
And FOR THE LOVE OF GOD just go away and start a thread about strikers wages if that's what you want to talk about.

Nobody cares.
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Offline Nessy76

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7802 on: March 16, 2015, 03:50:22 pm »
Expected Assists is a nice metric that cuts through a lot of these issues on both sides, though sadly isn't widely available. (Ionically Downing was doing very well on this metric since leaving us!) Broadly agree with this post though.

I've not come across that one!
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7803 on: March 16, 2015, 03:51:33 pm »
I've not come across that one!
Our very own Beez has a version, IIRC.

Offline 007.lankyguy

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7804 on: March 16, 2015, 04:04:05 pm »
Just fyi the 'assist' stat is one of the stats most subject to variance and statistical 'noise' (because the number is not high and it's so subject to the finishing of the person who received the ball). It's not actually particularly useful for anything if your goal is to determine the level of a player (e.g. Sterlings two "assists" in the Man city match)
I wouldn't say it isn't useful but it is of overrated importance to analysing the ability of a player. At the same time, as Nessy points out, 'Chances Created' is also not the best metric either. I'd be interested to see the 'Expected Assists' metric but I also think 'Clear-cut Chances Created' is a pretty good measurement
« Last Edit: March 16, 2015, 04:05:56 pm by lankyguy007 »
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7805 on: March 16, 2015, 04:07:45 pm »
I wouldn't say it isn't useful but it is of overrated importance to analysing the ability of a player. At the same time, as Nessy points out, 'Chances Created' is also not the best metric either. I'd be interested to see the 'Expected Assists' metric but I also think 'Clear-cut Chances Created' is a pretty good measurement
CCC is good in its way, but imo the sample is too small for it to be a primary tool to measure creativity. The best in the world will create, what, one every other game? There's a lot of other creative stuff that's very valuable.

Online JackWard33

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7806 on: March 16, 2015, 04:08:25 pm »
I wouldn't say it isn't useful but it is of overrated importance to analysing the ability of a player. At the same time, as Nessy points out, 'Chances Created' is also not the best metric either. I'd be interested to see the 'Expected Assists' metric but I also think 'Clear-cut Chances Created' is a pretty good measurement

Overrated importance is a good description

All these stats should be subject to useage rates as well - i.e. if a player is getting the ball constantly he's going to create more assists because of his useage volume as opposed to one who isn't

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7807 on: March 16, 2015, 04:15:15 pm »
Interesting discussion on stats. If we want to judge our midfielders, though, we have to be looking at the stats for the things midfielders are supposed to do, on the attack and defence side of the ball. Unfortunately, though, there are no stats openly available for things like penetrating runs, blindside runs, overlaps per game, etc. So we have to, as always, satisfy ourselves with what can be measured, which is usually on-ball actions. When we talk about on-ball actions, there are only five things that a player can do on the ball - shoot, dribble, pass to feet, pass to space, or clear it. Only one of those is a defensive action, but the other four, attack-wise, are measurable. We can look at shots on target and goals, duels won and lost, pass completion (and forward pass completion more importantly), and then through balls, key passes and assists. After that, we're kind of stuck with subjectivity, as there is not a lot of definite on-ball actions that can be measured objectively. If we look at those attacking criteria though, we should get an overall measure of how a player compares with others - but of course we won't have a measure of how they are working off the ball, which is also so very vital to good play.
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Offline 007.lankyguy

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7808 on: March 16, 2015, 04:32:14 pm »
CCC is good in its way, but imo the sample is too small for it to be a primary tool to measure creativity. The best in the world will create, what, one every other game? There's a lot of other creative stuff that's very valuable.
You might be right, I don't know. I do quite like it though. It has it's problems obviously, not least that it's still fairly subjective as to what qualifies, but I am a fan of it. I probably wouldn't use it as a primary tool either though (I'd be very careful about using most stats as primary tools for analysing the ability of a player anyway). I would be more inclined to use it on a team basis in terms of looking at how many CC chances the team is creating and whether that can improve.

While we're on this, I still shudder at an interview done with Commolli a while back after he'd left where he mentioned a player not by name, though I seem to recall people believing that it was Jose Enrique, that apparently had scout reports rating him pretty poorly but had stats that seemed pretty impressive and so he ended up being bought on that basis.

If a player is rated poor on scout reports but seems to have good stats, you still don't buy the player!!!
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Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7809 on: March 16, 2015, 04:33:27 pm »
You might be right, I don't know. I do quite like it though. It has it's problems obviously, not least that it's still fairly subjective as to what qualifies, but I am a fan of it. I probably wouldn't use it as a primary tool either though (I'd be very careful about using most stats as primary tools for analysing the ability of a player anyway). I would be more inclined to use it on a team basis in terms of looking at how many CC chances the team is creating and whether that can improve.

While we're on this, I still shudder at an interview done with Commolli a while back after he'd left where he mentioned a player not by name, though I seem to recall people believing that it was Jose Enrique, that apparently had scout reports rating him pretty poorly but had stats that seemed pretty impressive and so he ended up being bought on that basis.

If a player is rated poor on scout reports but seems to have good stats, you still don't buy the player!!!
Yeah, you should only buy players who rate well on both scouting reports AND stats imo. There's plenty of guys out there!

The way I think about it, you should create a pretty big list of players with stats, and then send your scouts to watch them a lot.

Offline spider-neil

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7810 on: March 16, 2015, 04:36:11 pm »
Again, I don't think it is about the '150K' in isolation, I think it is more about parity with Sturridge who is the clubs highest earner. Sterling's agent (rightly or wrongly) probably feels that Sterling as the 'best young player in Europe' is worth at least as much as Sturridge.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7811 on: March 16, 2015, 04:59:38 pm »
Of course we have to think about not letting salary levels get out of hand. Still, I would argue that it is, over time, much more expensive to  have a high turnover of players. Only about half of all new players succeed, and this is true even if we pay over 20M. Losing players and trying to replace them is much more expensive than paying a bit extra to keep the ones that are proven successes.

In the case of Sterling, paying him 150k/week rather than 100k/week would cost us 20M over 4 years. That's less than what we paid for Lallana, a worse and significantly older player. Statistically, we would  need to get two players find one that actually succeeds. So to actually have a player of Sterling's class in the team, we could expect to pay 50-60M in transfer fees. Plus, these two players would together ask for more than 150k/week in salary.

And this is not even considering the resale price, which in the case of Sterling could potentially be above 50M. Giving Suarez new deals was a fantastic piece of business by LFC. Not just because he was worth far more than 200k/week last season, but because the price increased due to the longer contract.

Keeping our best players reduces the number of transfers that we need to do, which is crucial to save money. It is failed transfers that are our biggest problem (just like most clubs), not overpaid players.

Offline ElstonGunn

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7812 on: March 16, 2015, 05:02:32 pm »
Of course we have to think about not letting salary levels get out of hand. Still, I would argue that it is, over time, much more expensive to  have a high turnover of players. Only about half of all new players succeed, and this is true even if we pay over 20M. Losing players and trying to replace them is much more expensive than paying a bit extra to keep the ones that are proven successes.

In the case of Sterling, paying him 150k/week rather than 100k/week would cost us 20M over 4 years. That's less than what we paid for Lallana, a worse and significantly older player. Statistically, we would  need to get two players find one that actually succeeds. So to actually have a player of Sterling's class in the team, we could expect to pay 50-60M in transfer fees. Plus, these two players would together ask for more than 150k/week in salary.

And this is not even considering the resale price, which in the case of Sterling could potentially be above 50M. Giving Suarez new deals was a fantastic piece of business by LFC. Not just because he was worth far more than 200k/week last season, but because the price increased due to the longer contract.

Keeping our best players reduces the number of transfers that we need to do, which is crucial to save money. It is failed transfers that are our biggest problem (just like most clubs), not overpaid players.
Excellent post.

Offline spider-neil

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7813 on: March 16, 2015, 05:09:17 pm »
I think 150K is excessive but If Sterling signed a new long term contract tomorrow (5 years or more) on 150K I would be overjoyed at securing the talents of one of the hottest prospects in Europe on a long term deal.

Offline Redman78

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7814 on: March 16, 2015, 05:09:39 pm »
What a fuckin abortion of a thread this has become. Bunch of fuckin bedwetters.

:lmao

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7815 on: March 16, 2015, 05:10:44 pm »
Just goes to show the importance of Henderson and Sterling. Henderson is available on a free next year but we still spend more time discussing Sterling.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7816 on: March 16, 2015, 05:12:39 pm »
I just want him signed. The cheaper the better obviously.

I will say that there's very few players who move for a pay cut. If Sterling starts to play like he's worth more than that, I think we'd be having a pretty good season.

Offline spider-neil

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7817 on: March 16, 2015, 05:14:54 pm »
Just goes to show the importance of Henderson and Sterling. Henderson is available on a free next year but we still spend more time discussing Sterling.

I think people feel (rightly or wrongly) that Henderson will sign. I put Henderson contribution to the team at least as highly as Sterling's. We badly miss Jordan's energy when he doesn't play and in Gerrard's absence he has proved he is more than a water carrier.

Offline Redman0151

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7818 on: March 16, 2015, 05:16:33 pm »
Just goes to show the importance of Henderson and Sterling. Henderson is available on a free next year but we still spend more time discussing Sterling.

To me it's more about weighing them up, you get the feeling that Henderson would fight for the club and would be proud to be captain, whereas with Sterling I get the feeling (and from hearing what journos say) that his head could be quickly turned.

Maybe i'm wrong, but that's it for me
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7819 on: March 16, 2015, 05:21:03 pm »
But ultimately the two arguments are the same with a difference in wage valuations. Also the stories were that the offer was made last november and after that was rejected there were no more talks planned. Henderson as well is 24 and will be entering his peak areas and apparently isnt getting an offer anywhere close to 100k

Offline Koparoo

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7820 on: March 16, 2015, 05:25:59 pm »
Just put it this way: given our model of developing talents and not buying Juan Mata-types for £38 million, can we afford to lose Raheem Sterling at 20?

No, we cannot.

You put him on a bigger contract, up there with the top 3 players at our club and in the higher echelon of the Premier League and then IF, if his lovely agents decide he needs to "larger franchise" club to play for in the next two to four years, then Liverpool are going to get a KING'S RANSOM for him.



Exactly... Why chuck out the plan - just when it is all working???

Anyway, I'm sure part of the reason discussions have been put on hold is to see where we end up (Top 4 or not?) - which directly influences our ability (and need) to pay his apparent 'demand'... We may all be having a different discussion then...
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Offline Persephone

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7821 on: March 16, 2015, 08:45:48 pm »
£150k? Show his agent this performance and laugh in his face. Sterling has huge steps to take before he is worth that.
I’ve plenty links to the clubs playing and backroom staff as many on here know thank you very much. Fair enough, I admire your optimism. But you’re absolute ostriches if you think this squad, even with 2 or 3 new, “cut price” players with potential get us anywhere close

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7822 on: March 16, 2015, 09:53:44 pm »
JOE ALLEN.
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Offline Anywhichwayicant

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7823 on: March 16, 2015, 09:55:45 pm »
Allen was excellent in the second half.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7824 on: March 16, 2015, 09:56:38 pm »
Stevie was fucking boss when he came on

Offline DanA

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7825 on: March 16, 2015, 10:15:59 pm »
Hendo chipping in with quite a few goals of late. May not have been his best game but these goals are crucial.
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Offline killer-heels

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7826 on: March 16, 2015, 10:26:23 pm »
The formation switch and clear bollocking helped but so did Gerrard. Still feel we need someone really good on the ball on that area that can put his foot on it and calm everything down. Sometimes its all rumble tumble in there.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7827 on: March 16, 2015, 10:31:24 pm »
The formation switch and clear bollocking helped but so did Gerrard. Still feel we need someone really good on the ball on that area that can put his foot on it and calm everything down. Sometimes its all rumble tumble in there.
Agree with that. I don't know how many times I've read on here how Gerrard can only play long passes, or 'hollywood' balls, and has no disciplin, but for me, he's still our best midfielder when it comes to controlling our tempo. Sure, he struggled badly in the first half of the season (I think much of it was mental), and his legs are gone, but that quality is still something we'll lack after he leaves. He showed how important it can be today. An excellent 30 minutes from him that really changed the game.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7828 on: March 16, 2015, 10:33:04 pm »
The formation switch and clear bollocking helped but so did Gerrard. Still feel we need someone really good on the ball on that area that can put his foot on it and calm everything down. Sometimes its all rumble tumble in there.

Know what you mean. And he was good. But it was a cameo, and he was well rested.

What we need is the calmness you mention, allied to energy, pace and stamina. Stevie sadly cannot supply those any more.

I'm confident the committee are on it ( Carvallo?)
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Offline Cpt_Reina

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7829 on: March 16, 2015, 10:35:34 pm »
Allen and Hendo is definitely our best midfield pair.

18 points from 18 since they were paired up after Lucas got injured.

Long may it continue.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7830 on: March 16, 2015, 10:36:52 pm »
Know what you mean. And he was good. But it was a cameo, and he was well rested.

What we need is the calmness you mention, allied to energy, pace and stamina. Stevie sadly cannot supply those any more.

I'm confident the committee are on it ( Carvallo?)

Yeah obviously not Gerrard but something that he brings. Maybe we can convince Xabi to stay here when he plays in that charity game.

Offline spider-neil

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7831 on: March 16, 2015, 10:37:57 pm »
I think once Ibe recovers he has got to return to the team will Lallana dropping down to the bench.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7832 on: March 16, 2015, 10:39:13 pm »
The amount of times a bit of space opened up for Swansea only for Joe ''Fucking'' Allen to emerge from nowhere and come away from the ball was a sight to behold.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7833 on: March 16, 2015, 10:46:16 pm »
Tell me again how Joe Allen is our weakest CM and isn't good enough to play for Liverpool?

Would be nice if some of the slaters actually apologised as he constantly proves them wrong

Best midfielder on the pitch today.
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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7834 on: March 16, 2015, 10:47:09 pm »
Allen on the ball today... brilliant. He's watching Coutinho, Lallana, Sterling and Sturridge in front of him - class players on the ball - and getting stuck in.

Big game for our midfielders next - we need them to be on it.
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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7835 on: March 16, 2015, 10:47:31 pm »
Hendo chipping in with quite a few goals of late. May not have been his best game but these goals are crucial.

Yes, games like these where any goal will do, that's when you really need the rest of the team to be making their contributions felt. Getting the fourth or fifth in an occasional rout might be fun, but it doesn't really add anything of great value. Getting the winner in a close fought 1-0 is so much more important.
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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7836 on: March 16, 2015, 11:50:42 pm »


Haha thanks for the repost - always been a believer. He's a quality player and I'll never understand the pasting he got on here

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7837 on: March 16, 2015, 11:53:50 pm »
The formation switch and clear bollocking helped but so did Gerrard. Still feel we need someone really good on the ball on that area that can put his foot on it and calm everything down. Sometimes its all rumble tumble in there.

Coutinho.

Offline killer-heels

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7838 on: March 16, 2015, 11:54:18 pm »
Coutinho.

I meant from a deeper position.

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Re: Liverpool's Midfield
« Reply #7839 on: March 17, 2015, 12:01:14 am »
£150k? Show his agent this performance and laugh in his face. Sterling has huge steps to take before he is worth that.

What and Sturridge doesnt need to improve?