Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2021-22 (Read 63294 times)

Prof · « **on:** August 11, 2021, 11:10:33 pm »

The Alternative Premier League Table 2021-22

This is a continuation of the last ten APLT threads which ran over the last ten seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191
2018-19 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340730
2019-20 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=343471
2020-21 https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=345980

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season. This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches. I refer to these as the ‘par results’. As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the featured teams indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.

Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below). If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.

The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish. Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf

This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

Quote from: Nessy76 on September 1, 2014, 02:10:47 am

BoRed · « **Reply #1 on:** August 12, 2021, 08:59:22 am »

Looking at those fixtures, we can probably expect to be behind in the APLT in the early stage of the season. The only way we can be above par after eight games is if we win them all. On the other hand, if we're level with the likes of City, Chelsea and Utd in the APLT, we'll be well clear of them in the real table.

Hij · « **Reply #2 on:** August 12, 2021, 09:15:42 am »

Here we go!

Austin Powers · « **Reply #3 on:** August 12, 2021, 10:28:46 pm »

Which team will be the first cut off the chart?

TepidT2O · « **Reply #4 on:** August 12, 2021, 10:30:41 pm »

Quote from: Austin Powers on August 12, 2021, 10:28:46 pm

Which team will be the first cut off the chart?

eveton…

Willy Poolman · « **Reply #5 on:** August 13, 2021, 12:27:31 am »

Magic, Prof, you have saved my sanity once again. There I am all month, lurking around the LFC transfer thread, in some delusional fever, searching for an omen of success for the coming season. Alternating between despair and exhiliration. You rescue me from that hellhole by re-opening an evidence-based analysis of what is really happening from week to week. Better than a course of lithium, really.

Ghost Town · « **Reply #6 on:** August 13, 2021, 03:56:32 am »

Best thread on the forum...when we're winning.

Still laugh at the grey Man Utd line, in honour of that kit they had to change at half-time

BoRed · « **Reply #7 on:** August 13, 2021, 10:37:27 pm »

Arsenal on -3 already.

Gus 1855 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 15, 2021, 08:48:42 pm »

Cough

TheShanklyGates · « **Reply #9 on:** August 15, 2021, 08:50:32 pm »

Always one of my favourite threads on RAWK this, thanks to Prof for keeping it going every season.

Looking forward to seeing the first update

BoRed · « **Reply #10 on:** August 15, 2021, 08:54:36 pm »

Quote from: Gus 1855 on August 15, 2021, 08:48:42 pm

Cough

Of the seven included clubs, all are on par apart from City on -1 and Arsenal on -3. West Ham are the only ones on +2.

Ghost Town · « **Reply #11 on:** August 15, 2021, 10:01:25 pm »

Quote from: Gus 1855 on August 15, 2021, 08:48:42 pm

Cough

*clears the room*

Prof · « **Reply #12 on:** August 15, 2021, 10:13:33 pm »

ABJ · « **Reply #13 on:** August 15, 2021, 10:34:42 pm »

Quote from: Ghost Town on August 15, 2021, 10:01:25 pm

*clears the room*

Suareznumber7 · « **Reply #14 on:** August 15, 2021, 10:46:08 pm »

My favorite thread is back!!!

kcbworth · « **Reply #15 on:** August 16, 2021, 01:34:19 am »

And... Man City can stay down there

TAA66 · « **Reply #16 on:** August 16, 2021, 12:42:32 pm »

Thanks Prof, always look forward to this

Crimson_Tank · « **Reply #17 on:** August 16, 2021, 02:15:50 pm »

Ah Bless you Prof, love this thread.

Crimson_Tank · « **Reply #18 on:** August 16, 2021, 02:18:29 pm »

Quote from: Gus 1855 on August 15, 2021, 08:48:42 pm

Cough

Mask Up

Prof · « **Reply #19 on:** August 24, 2021, 06:52:30 pm »

The Last Known Survivor · « **Reply #20 on:** August 24, 2021, 07:17:35 pm »

My favourite thread returns, cheers Prof for doing this. Its one of the threads that make this site worthwhile for me and I think a lot more.

sminp · « **Reply #21 on:** August 24, 2021, 07:48:22 pm »

Comedy value aside, Arsenal belong nowhere near this thread these days. It feels like they're only in here on their legacy from the Wenger days. I feel like you're making unnecessary extra work for yourself Prof.

Prof · « **Reply #22 on:** August 24, 2021, 08:10:16 pm »

Quote from: sminp on August 24, 2021, 07:48:22 pm

Comedy value aside, Arsenal belong nowhere near this thread these days. It feels like they're only in here on their legacy from the Wenger days. I feel like you're making unnecessary extra work for yourself Prof.

Just a matter of time until we get the calls for West Ham to be added

Prof · « **Reply #23 on:** August 24, 2021, 08:15:22 pm »

I think the fixture list in this format has some very interesting aspects. Looking at the opening 7 games, ours is the highest par for all the teams. Man City and Chelsea have much harder opening sequences.

I imagine we'll see Chelsea and Man City showing themselves to be at or above par on the aplt, but might not look as pretty in the real table. It'll be interesting how that's portrayed in the media. I think both of them well be looking really good on the aplt. It might take the pressure off to an extent if they aren't setting the real league table pace.

sminp · « **Reply #24 on:** August 24, 2021, 10:57:31 pm »

Quote from: Prof on August 24, 2021, 08:10:16 pm

Just a matter of time until we get the calls for West Ham to be added

No doubt but it'll be Brighton this year, 6 points from their first 2 games has them looking like title challengers this season.

farawayred · « **Reply #25 on:** August 25, 2021, 01:21:40 am »

We suck... Two rounds in and we are already behind Chelsea and Spurs...

Thank Prof, fantastic to have that thread back!

markthescouser · « **Reply #26 on:** August 25, 2021, 05:05:03 am »

Quote from: Prof on August 24, 2021, 08:15:22 pm

I think the fixture list in this format has some very interesting aspects. Looking at the opening 7 games, ours is the highest par for all the teams. Man City and Chelsea have much harder opening sequences.

I imagine we'll see Chelsea and Man City showing themselves to be at or above par on the aplt, but might not look as pretty in the real table. It'll be interesting how that's portrayed in the media. I think both of them well be looking really good on the aplt. It might take the pressure off to an extent if they aren't setting the real league table pace.

It is interesting that. With my money making hat on, depending on how it’s portrayed in the media, and so public opinion, for us and for city and Chelsea, one of those teams could be fairly well under or over valued to win the league. Probably not as much this way round though compared to if it was us with a difficult and city with an easier aplt start.

redk84 · « **Reply #27 on:** August 25, 2021, 08:49:45 am »

love this. Thanks for the work

WEST HAM PAUL · « **Reply #28 on:** August 25, 2021, 09:44:58 am »

Quote from: Prof on August 24, 2021, 06:52:30 pm

Errr…. Nothing alternative about it Prof it’s West Ham who are top 😂😜

Dr Stu-Pid · « **Reply #29 on:** August 25, 2021, 04:45:14 pm »

Quote

_{This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top). The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 15 points from our last 5 games, 11 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc}

Ghost Town · « **Reply #30 on:** August 25, 2021, 07:03:45 pm »

Quote from: Dr Stu-Pid on August 25, 2021, 04:45:14 pm

Yes! This is the dope I was waiting for. Great visual representation of current and changing form, to complement the APLT performance-vs-par graphics

PoetryInMotion · « **Reply #31 on:** August 29, 2021, 07:41:24 pm »

So, we are down to -2, but in our game against Leeds, we have a chance to go straight back up to 0.

Prof · « **Reply #32 on:** August 31, 2021, 10:10:07 pm »

farawayred · « **Reply #33 on:** August 31, 2021, 11:11:54 pm »

We are in a free fall, United are on the up and Spurs are running away with the title. Ah, the times... I bet Spurs fans are signing the petition to stop the PL now and pro-rate the results to 38 games.

RedG13 · « **Reply #34 on:** August 31, 2021, 11:23:29 pm »

Arsenal already -7

Dr Stu-Pid · « **Reply #35 on:** September 1, 2021, 09:59:42 am »

Quote

_{This is the 38 game current form for each team broken down into 5 game segments (with one 3 game segment at the top). The closer to the bottom and the darker the colour the more recent (and so more relevant) the games are.

So we have 13 points from our last 5 games, 11 points from the 5 games before that, etc, etc}

courty61 · « **Reply #36 on:** September 13, 2021, 11:01:13 am »

Back on par now after 4. With no room for error next 3

Hij · « **Reply #37 on:** September 13, 2021, 01:01:32 pm »

Quote from: courty61 on September 13, 2021, 11:01:13 am

Back on par now after 4. With no room for error next 3

Shouldn't be an issue

Prof · « **Reply #38 on:** September 13, 2021, 07:34:17 pm »

Crimson_Tank · « **Reply #39 on:** September 19, 2021, 02:01:08 am »

I am awaiting the next update with great...