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RAWK and Brexit

No Deal!
65 (8.8%)
Mays Deal!
14 (1.9%)
No Brexit!
539 (72.8%)
Don't Know
10 (1.4%)
Don't Care
15 (2%)
I don't live in the UK
97 (13.1%)

Total Members Voted: 740

Author Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"  (Read 1448849 times)

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28400 on: September 12, 2019, 08:54:30 pm »
Someone on TV today said JRM wrote a article months ago about Proroguing Parliament so we can force Brexit through. JRM was one of the Ministers who asked the queen to Prorogue Parliament.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28401 on: September 12, 2019, 09:05:37 pm »
This is another issue which is bubbling away, especially as some are still hoping for some form of compromise to be put before Parliament at some stage. Johnson's position, and indeed many Brexiteers' positions, on 'level playing field' commitments are just as toxic to any hope of an agreement with the EU as his belief that 'trust me' is an adequate position to take on a border on the island of Ireland. George Peretz has a decent explainer of issues going on with it.

Quote
The headlines have focused on the Northern Ireland backstop and on Johnson’s “do or die” fight to keep the 31st October Brexit date, but the LPF issue is a contentious one which could yet come to a head. It is therefore worth exploring in some detail.

The basis for the [Level Playing Field] commitments is “open and fair competition.” The EU’s anxieties on that score are set out in the March 2018 European Council negotiating mandate: “Given the UK’s geographic proximity and economic interdependence with the EU27, the future relationship will only deliver in a mutually satisfactory way if it includes robust guarantees which ensure a level playing field. The aim should be to prevent unfair competitive advantage that the UK could enjoy through undercutting of levels of protection with respect to, inter alia, competition and state aid, tax, social, environment and regulatory measures and practices.”

In other words, whatever the position might be for third countries such as Canada or Japan, the UK is too big and too close to be allowed privileged access to the EU market, over and above what is required by World Trade Organisation rules, if it does not meet EU standards or, at least, something broadly equivalent. The brute political reality is that, given the size of the UK and the volume of trade at stake, the EU27 cannot sell a deal to their own public if it appears to allow the UK to compete freely in the EU while being able to subsidise, or lower the regulatory costs of, its own suppliers in a way not open to EU member states.

That point will apply just as much, and probably even more, to a deal (or series of mini-deals) negotiated in the aftermath of a crash-out Brexit as it does to a final agreement negotiated after an Article 50 withdrawal agreement.

Of course, the problem here is that, for many right-wing Brexiters, the prospect of escaping EU regulations on precisely the areas listed by the EU is one of the major reasons for supporting Brexit. This technical-sounding debate therefore cuts to the heart of the Brexit issue.

Quote
The problem, though, is that if the UK is to have freedom to set up its own independent standards in these areas, that solution has to be sold to an EU that is already deeply distrustful of the UK approach post-Brexit, and will certainly not just take it on trust that the UK will not let regulatory standards slip, or that the UK will not subsidise exporting industries. Indeed, since what there is of the economic case for Brexit usually depends on heroic assumptions as to cost savings from deregulation, it is hard to dismiss such suspicions as unfounded. Moreover, the effect of abandoning LPF commitments is to make the Northern Ireland backstop even more important, as there is likely otherwise too significant a difference in the regulatory regimes between Northern Ireland and Ireland to make an open border viable as the border of the single market.

If the EU is therefore prepared to give any ground on LPF commitments, it would almost certainly be on the basis that it remained free to restrict access to its internal market for UK goods and services unless the 27 remained satisfied that UK rules on environmental and labour standards, and state aid rules, were at least equivalent to its own. The UK’s difficulty will be that any decision by the Commission along those lines would be hard to challenge effectively.

It may be that negotiations collapse in acrimony before we get to this point. But in that scenario the UK will soon seek measures to mitigate the damage. And these same tough choices will confront it.

Insecure (at best) rights of access to the single market may be the best that can be achieved if the government is determined to rule out LPF commitments. And it is not at all clear that the EU will go even that far, given its anxiety that the UK in its current mood is too unreliable a partner, and too eager to tow itself across the Atlantic, to be given the benefit of any doubt.
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Offline Iska

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28402 on: September 12, 2019, 09:06:14 pm »
https://www.dropbox.com/s/olelhf5ergjiqi8/2019CSIH49%20%28002%29.pdf?dl=0

The Court of Session opinion is available here.  I haven’t read it yet, but at 68 pages there’ll surely be something juicy in there.

Offline Musketeer Gripweed

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28403 on: September 12, 2019, 09:08:09 pm »
Apparently Boris is going to build a bridge from Scotland to N. Ireland and that solves everything - especially as he's so good at bridges?


Offline TSC

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28404 on: September 12, 2019, 09:17:28 pm »
Sky are reporting that Johnson wants data collected on people visiting the governments Brexit website. This is all starting to get very sinister.

Timing is everything.  Are they after details of individuals re the below?

https://www.channel4.com/news/1-5-million-eu-citizens-apply-to-remain-in-the-uk-after-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/applying-for-settled-status-is-a-fraught-and-humiliating-process

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28405 on: September 12, 2019, 09:28:27 pm »
Ooops. Lets see you spin this one.

James Melville
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Well there we have it. The Scottish government’s copy of Yellowhammer has ‘base scenario’ on it.

Pretty much conclusive proof that the UK government changed title of the #Yellowhammer document from “base case” to “reasonable worst case” and then lied about making the change.

Tom Gordon
@HTScotPol
Spot the difference: Scottish Govt's copy of Yellowhammer says it's a 'base scenario', while UK Govt's says it's a 'reasonable worst case'.
Scottish Govt says it's 'puzzling' and 'curious'
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1172149511998922753


It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Red Beret

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28406 on: September 12, 2019, 09:33:40 pm »
Sky are reporting that Johnson wants data collected on people visiting the governments Brexit website. This is all starting to get very sinister.

hmm... is a VPN any good?

Timing is everything.  Are they after details of individuals re the below?

https://www.channel4.com/news/1-5-million-eu-citizens-apply-to-remain-in-the-uk-after-brexit

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/applying-for-settled-status-is-a-fraught-and-humiliating-process

Speaking as a recipient of ESA, I can confirm that just about anything to do with asking the British government for anything is a fraught and humiliating process.
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28407 on: September 12, 2019, 09:45:21 pm »
https://www.dropbox.com/s/olelhf5ergjiqi8/2019CSIH49%20%28002%29.pdf?dl=0

The Court of Session opinion is available here.  I haven’t read it yet, but at 68 pages there’ll surely be something juicy in there.

Lord Brodie's shade was my favorite bit.

Quote
In an age of special or political advisers who may not share [with government lawyers, who were kept in the dark about government intentions] that understanding [of the need for appropriate disclosure of evidence] and the diffusion of “messaging”, to use an expression in the cabinet minute, responsible conduct and adherence to the highest standards is to be encouraged.
"And the voices of the standing Kop still whispering in the wind will salute the wee Scots redman and he will still walk on.
And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28408 on: September 12, 2019, 10:18:32 pm »
Bercow gave a speech tonight which won't go down well with the Tory no deal Kamakshi MPs.
He's prepared to rip up the rule book to help MPs stop a no deal. had some nasty words for Johnson for suspending Parliament.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline smicer07

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28409 on: September 12, 2019, 10:19:45 pm »
Why is Gove getting away with breaking the law currently?

Offline ShakaHislop

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28410 on: September 12, 2019, 10:26:15 pm »
Ooops. Lets see you spin this one.

James Melville
@JamesMelville
Well there we have it. The Scottish government’s copy of Yellowhammer has ‘base scenario’ on it.

Pretty much conclusive proof that the UK government changed title of the #Yellowhammer document from “base case” to “reasonable worst case” and then lied about making the change.

Tom Gordon
@HTScotPol
Spot the difference: Scottish Govt's copy of Yellowhammer says it's a 'base scenario', while UK Govt's says it's a 'reasonable worst case'.
Scottish Govt says it's 'puzzling' and 'curious'
https://twitter.com/HTScotPol/status/1172149511998922753

Quote
What does ‘base scenario’ mean? How does this compare to ‘worst case’ scenario?

Some iterations of the Yellowhammer assumptions have used the phrase ‘base scenario’ to describe some baseline parameters - such as the UK will leave on a particular date and be treated as a third country by the EU - upon which the reasonable worst case assumptions are then built. This has never meant that Yellowhammer is a base or central scenario and to suggest otherwise is wrong.

But the Scottish Government say the Yellowhammer document they received was a “base scenario”

Yellowhammer has always been working to a reasonable worst case scenario. The Scottish Government has received an explainer alongside the yellowhammer document which states: 'A planning assumption is: The reasonable worst case scenario you are anticipating, including the likely severity and duration. A reasonable worst case scenario is the worst plausible, not most likely, manifestation of the risk in question.'

https://brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/2019/09/12/yellowhammer-factsheet/

So No Deal could be worse, albeit the government considers that an implausible "manifestation of the risk in question", than what the Yellowhammer document describes?

Offline Red Beret

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28411 on: September 12, 2019, 10:32:47 pm »
Bercow gave a speech tonight which won't go down well with the Tory no deal Kamakshi MPs.
He's prepared to rip up the rule book to help MPs stop a no deal. had some nasty words for Johnson for suspending Parliament.

Bercow was a Tory.  He can fight as dirty as they can if he has to - and he knows the rules a lot better than any of them.  Johnson will find that if he breaks the rules, others can and will break them too.
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Offline Crosby Nick

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28412 on: September 12, 2019, 10:46:23 pm »
Amazingly stupid idea. Who knew he was a fuckwit?  He’s got such a good record on bridges.

It would be 35 miles long and would require 54 towers

Each of these would need to be taller by far than the tallest tower in a bridge anywhere in the world due to the extremely deep water.

Add to this 1.5 million tonnes of unwanted munitions that were dumped in the Irish Sea and no one really knows the whereabouts of and the awful weather that would lead to the bridge being closed for significant periods of the year.

I know..  excuses... just get on and build it.  ;)



While you’re right that it’s a ridiculous idea it’s not 35 miles between the two. Only about 10 or 12 miles at the narrowest point (not that you’d want to build it from the Mull of Kintyre to be fair!).

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28413 on: September 12, 2019, 10:47:31 pm »
https://brexitfacts.blog.gov.uk/2019/09/12/yellowhammer-factsheet/

So No Deal could be worse, albeit the government considers that an implausible "manifestation of the risk in question", than what the Yellowhammer document describes?
Remain have actually played down the effects of a no deal in fear of being labelled scaremongers who spout project fear, we see it every time we hear remain MP argue thousands of people may loose their jobs if we have a no deal, thousands give us a break, we are talking a mill+ and thats my conservative estimate based on evidence.
Why is nobody raising the meeting Road haulage had with the then Transport Minister Chris Grayling around the beginning of the year , he had absolutely no answers to many serious questions we know will hit Road Haulage hugely, all Grayllng could say was he thinks we will get a deal to solve these problems, they are now arguing no deals fine,  if a no deals fine then wheres all the answers to all those Road Haulage serious concerns.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28414 on: September 12, 2019, 10:59:43 pm »
Bercow was a Tory.  He can fight as dirty as they can if he has to - and he knows the rules a lot better than any of them.  Johnson will find that if he breaks the rules, others can and will break them too.
I think this is just more about a very clever man who knows Parliaments rules inside out being incensed at the way this Tory party is acting right now, I wouldn't class this as anger, he is hitting the roof, Johnsons taking the piss out of our Democracy and Parliament.
I don't think Bercow would say he's willing to rip up the rule book to help remain MPs without seeing a way for him to do it.
I think we are in for Fireworks when Parliament returns, I doubt we will know what the plan is till it happens.
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 11:03:12 pm by oldfordie »
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline PaulF

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28415 on: September 12, 2019, 11:10:40 pm »
I can see some loon trying to blow up parliament on November 5 th
"All the lads have been talking about is walking out in front of the Kop, with 40,000 singing 'You'll Never Walk Alone'," Collins told BBC Radio Solent. "All the money in the world couldn't buy that feeling," he added.

Offline WhereAngelsPlay

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28416 on: September 12, 2019, 11:17:13 pm »
I can see some loon trying to blow up parliament on November 5 th

A few hundred pikes along the embankment would be cheaper.
My cup, it runneth over, I'll never get my fill

Offline Machae

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28417 on: September 12, 2019, 11:19:20 pm »
Why is Gove getting away with breaking the law currently?

Who's going to stop him? The law, police, MPs? They dont seem to pay attention to anyone and those in power to do so are worried about being 'undemocratic' or 'enemies of the people'

Sometimes I wish we could be Zimbabwe for a day and lock these fuckers up. Wheres a good coup when you need one.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28418 on: September 12, 2019, 11:25:18 pm »
I can see some loon trying to blow up parliament on November 5 th
I can see these incompetent d/head ERG MPs sitting in one of the cellars under the HOC.
Have you lit the fuse Boris, huff huff yeah thats it boys lets get out of here Maxims Quickus.
wtf is he talking about now, How longs the Fuse Boris.
Huff huff never thought to check Jacob, Family Guy, ahh ffs it says 10 secs fuse on here.
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28419 on: September 13, 2019, 12:09:09 am »
Why is Gove getting away with breaking the law currently?

With the document production after the Humble Address? It's not breaking the law, it's dicking about with a request from Parliament to see something. May refused to give legal advice she'd received to Parliament and ended up with Parliament finding the government in contempt. Used to be Parliament could fine and imprison people for refusing but that's 100+ years back now. So it's political rather than legal.
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And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline 24/7

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28420 on: September 13, 2019, 07:30:49 am »
I can see some loon trying to blow up parliament on November 5 th
Whilst there are plenty of female loons about, this sounds like a job for a guy.....

Offline No666

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28421 on: September 13, 2019, 07:52:27 am »
Some talk that the DUP will allow NI to diverge from the rest of the UK. The Times is peddling this:
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson was handed a lifeline by the Democratic Unionist Party last night when it agreed to shift its red lines, accepting that Northern Ireland could abide by some EU rules after Brexit, in a move that could help to unlock a deal

Offline gazzalfc

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28422 on: September 13, 2019, 09:08:04 am »
Message in the top and bottom lines of yesterdays’s Guardian cryptic crossword


Offline Jshooters

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28423 on: September 13, 2019, 09:15:07 am »
Some talk that the DUP will allow NI to diverge from the rest of the UK. The Times is peddling this:
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson was handed a lifeline by the Democratic Unionist Party last night when it agreed to shift its red lines, accepting that Northern Ireland could abide by some EU rules after Brexit, in a move that could help to unlock a deal

Foster has denied that
Believer

Offline lukeb1981

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28424 on: September 13, 2019, 09:43:41 am »
Some talk that the DUP will allow NI to diverge from the rest of the UK. The Times is peddling this:
Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson was handed a lifeline by the Democratic Unionist Party last night when it agreed to shift its red lines, accepting that Northern Ireland could abide by some EU rules after Brexit, in a move that could help to unlock a deal
Them bigots would rather set back the north 40 years and destroy the lively hoods of the people of Northan Ireland just so they can stay part of the "Union" .

Offline Currywurst

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28425 on: September 13, 2019, 09:47:03 am »
Message in the top and bottom lines of yesterdays’s Guardian cryptic crossword



Bloody hell. I did that crossword and hadn't even noticed. Had to get it out of the bin to check!
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Offline Circa1892

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28426 on: September 13, 2019, 10:22:17 am »
That orange weird fuck who owns Weatherspoons has said Yellowhammer is "bollocks" and it's in the news.

Why the fuck does he get a platform to say this shit? He's a fucking moron.

Offline Red Beret

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28427 on: September 13, 2019, 10:27:50 am »
With the document production after the Humble Address? It's not breaking the law, it's dicking about with a request from Parliament to see something. May refused to give legal advice she'd received to Parliament and ended up with Parliament finding the government in contempt. Used to be Parliament could fine and imprison people for refusing but that's 100+ years back now. So it's political rather than legal.

It's so much like the Trump administration - invoking executive privilege, ignoring subpoenas, challenging shit in the courts etc.  :no

I'm sure Parliament would find the government in contempt again - except that the PM got it shut down.  :wanker  Honestly reminds me of when King Charles just dissolved Parliament at whim because they wouldn't play ball with him.
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Offline Yosser0_0

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28428 on: September 13, 2019, 10:34:24 am »
While you’re right that it’s a ridiculous idea it’s not 35 miles between the two. Only about 10 or 12 miles at the narrowest point (not that you’d want to build it from the Mull of Kintyre to be fair!).

Mull of Kintyre? Wouldn't that be problematic with the mist rolling in from the sea?
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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28429 on: September 13, 2019, 10:36:48 am »
Mull of Kintyre? Wouldn't that be problematic with the mist rolling in from the sea?
Phaugh! What's a bit of mist - just use yer foglights

Offline CraigDS

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28430 on: September 13, 2019, 10:39:26 am »
That orange weird fuck who owns Weatherspoons has said Yellowhammer is "bollocks" and it's in the news.

Why the fuck does he get a platform to say this shit? He's a fucking moron.

Unfortunately he employs something like 40k peopl (ironically, in my experience, a lot of them are European) so what he says is news. Even when it’s complete bollocks.

Offline Circa1892

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28431 on: September 13, 2019, 10:42:33 am »
Brexit Party are now in control of Hartlepool Borough Council.

Really find it fucking weird anyone votes for them in local stuff. If you really actually think Brexit is the be all and end all to achieve then okay, I guess vote for them nationally or in EU Elections - but what the fuck do they offer to anyone locally? What do they even put on their leaflets? How thick are people?

Offline Henry Gale

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28432 on: September 13, 2019, 10:56:06 am »
These Brexiteers are going to lose their shit if the date is pushed back till 2020. Well probably make an angry facebook status but that's probably about it.

Offline No666

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28433 on: September 13, 2019, 11:04:07 am »
Foster has denied that
Yep - spokesman calling it rubbish.

Offline oldfordie

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28434 on: September 13, 2019, 11:18:34 am »
Many people have argued the only way we can overcome right wing propaganda destroying lives is through education, teach children how to form opinions from reliable information rather than meaningless propaganda.
Whoever let this bas..near schools needs kicking out..

Jesus Christ Nigel Frottage has just said on LBC that he has spoken at 280 UK schools. WHY - who the hell is letting this tw*t influence minors.
https://twitter.com/badgerthecat2/status/1172200335630376962
It might take our producers five minutes to find 60 economists who feared Brexit and five hours to find a sole voice who espoused it.
“But by the time we went on air we simply had one of each; we presented this unequal effort to our audience as balance. It wasn’t.”
               Emily Maitlis

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28435 on: September 13, 2019, 11:25:12 am »
Not sure that I believe him...


And don’t forget if this was true, it is probably just renting the school hall as a meeting space at weekends
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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28436 on: September 13, 2019, 11:26:56 am »
Many people have argued the only way we can overcome right wing propaganda destroying lives is through education, teach children how to form opinions from reliable information rather than meaningless propaganda.
Whoever let this bas..near schools needs kicking out..

Jesus Christ Nigel Frottage has just said on LBC that he has spoken at 280 UK schools. WHY - who the hell is letting this tw*t influence minors.
https://twitter.com/badgerthecat2/status/1172200335630376962

I wish he'd go to my kids school, I'd have my lad stand up and call him a Nazi - that'd make the news.
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Offline Zeb

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28437 on: September 13, 2019, 11:36:09 am »
It's so much like the Trump administration - invoking executive privilege, ignoring subpoenas, challenging shit in the courts etc.  :no

I'm sure Parliament would find the government in contempt again - except that the PM got it shut down.  :wanker  Honestly reminds me of when King Charles just dissolved Parliament at whim because they wouldn't play ball with him.

Can see similarities in how the executive behaves on some levels, at the same time, there's some pretty huge differences there too. Good example is how Trump has the backing of the institutional GOP, which shields him from a lot of consequences, whereas the Tories are what happens when the 'never Trumpers' actually have a base because the political coalition is so fractured.

---

Dunt, no link yet - should be up on politics.co.uk later, on the whole "DUP will back Johnson's plan for border in the Irish Sea" story.

Spoiler
Quote
The chatter begins. It always starts quietly at first, then slowly builds up. Maybe there is hope, after all. Maybe a deal with Europe can be done. Maybe Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson is the man to do it.

Then come the news reports. The prime minister is startled by the implications of no-deal. The DUP are softening on regulatory separation between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The Europeans are willing to change or erase the backstop.

It's becoming almost a tradition. Expectation builds, slowly and from multiple angles, reaches a crescendo and then finally breaks on the cold, horrible shores of reality.

Reports now suggest the Europeans would accept changes to the backstop. But these would amount to the backstop in all but name: regulatory and customs alignment as an insurance policy against the failure of 'alternative arrangements'.

The suggestions of a DUP shift are also overstated. The maintenance of alignment in the UK is more important to the party than Brexit. The latter is a key policy, the former is a near-Biblical historical commitment. They have arguably been the most consistent of all the Brexit camps since the referendum. Even when many of the ERG hardliners backed Theresa May's deal on the third attempt, they held firm.

Others insist that now Johnson has been blocked from pursuing no-deal, he's really serious about getting one. He would apparently be able to 'sell' it better than his predecessor. But after the events of the last two weeks, even that latter proposition looks dubious. He's not the master salesman he was made out to be.

And then there is the timetable. Even the most positive reports concede that the Europeans have not been shown a viable plan by the UK yet. It's far from clear that Downing Street is capable of constructing that plan. If it somehow could, it wouldn't allow it to emerge before the Conservative party conference, because all hell would break loose. But there's just over a week between the end of the conference and the crucial EU summit where the deal would need to be agreed in mid-October.

Plans for a deal of this complexity and importance can't just be unveiled at a summit. They need time to be discussed, negotiated and agreed. The timing just doesn't work. So even if there was a viable plan in place, you'd still be looking at an extension of Article 50, which takes Johnson past his self-imposed red line.

Coming back to the Commons with a deal - any deal, even one without the backstop - would also sabotage Johnson's electoral prospects. Many in the ERG and the Brexit Party now view any deal as a betrayal, quite apart from whatever the arrangements are on the Irish border.

If he lost the subsequent vote, the swerve back to no-deal would be difficult. He would not be able to regain the image he currently enjoys as someone prepared to embrace the full spiritual mission of Brexit. He'd be turned into May Mark II.

So to even consider this course he'd really need to be confident that he could get it through the Commons. And there's little reason to think he would. He would struggle to get the ERG on board. The DUP are extremely unlikely to vote for it. That means that he needs to find enough pro-deal Labour MPs to make up the numbers.

There had been hints that might be possible. A new group of pro-deal MPs, headed by Stephen Kinnock, are agitating for another crack at May's deal. But, as Chaminda Jayenetti wrote for the site this week, the deal they'd be offered by Johnson would be even worse than what they got under May.

The assurances on staying aligned with worker and environmental rights would be gone. The future relationship document would be amended to rule out customs union or single market membership in future. The fact that the rest of the UK would be able to move away from European standards, leaving Northern Ireland behind, clearly entails a move towards American deregulation in a bid to secure a deal with Donald Trump.

And despite their protestations, the Labour pro-deal contingent have, when it comes down to it, voted against this kind of outcome. People like Lisa Nandy or Caroline Flint, who have pointedly rejected Remain, have almost spotless voting records in blocking Tory Brexit deals. That deal would now be put forward in a less attractive way, by a leader they find more offensive than May. Whichever angle you look at the problem from, the votes are hard to find.

Nothing is impossible and in British politics things now change very quickly. But you would need an optimism close to pathology in order to believe that a deal was in any way likely: the incentives are not there, the ideas are not there and the votes are not there. The rest is just hopeful chatter.
[close]

Timing issue seems especially relevant, as we've mentioned on here in the past when Johnson was telling Tories he'd get it sorted in time. We're not leaving on the 31st October even if Parliament agree on something because the EU will also need to ratify it.
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And your money will have bought you nothing."

Offline Red-Soldier

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28438 on: September 13, 2019, 12:16:44 pm »
Many people have argued the only way we can overcome right wing propaganda destroying lives is through education, teach children how to form opinions from reliable information rather than meaningless propaganda.
Whoever let this bas..near schools needs kicking out..

Jesus Christ Nigel Frottage has just said on LBC that he has spoken at 280 UK schools. WHY - who the hell is letting this tw*t influence minors.
https://twitter.com/badgerthecat2/status/1172200335630376962

The underfunding of the education system has been a deliberate ploy by the Tories in order to control the masses more easily.

Offline thaddeus

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Re: Brexit - Operation YellowHammer - Item 15. Things that make you go uhmmm
« Reply #28439 on: September 13, 2019, 12:19:23 pm »
Many people have argued the only way we can overcome right wing propaganda destroying lives is through education, teach children how to form opinions from reliable information rather than meaningless propaganda.
Whoever let this bas..near schools needs kicking out..

Jesus Christ Nigel Frottage has just said on LBC that he has spoken at 280 UK schools. WHY - who the hell is letting this tw*t influence minors.
https://twitter.com/badgerthecat2/status/1172200335630376962
Children, that was Exhibit A.  Exhibit A was spouting what we call "Propaganda".  For the next few weeks we will be learning about "Critical Thinking" and why that's important when faced with "Propaganda".

Your homework will be explaining what you've learned to your parents and grandparents.