Topic: Hurricane Irma and related current severe weather events

[ALPH1217]

Hoping against all odds that it somehow swerves us here in Naples. We're staying put, regardless. This ain't gonna be fun.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Where are you my friend? Are you seeing anythin yet?

North Florida mate, towards the east coast, close to the Georgia border. Nothing in sight yet, and won't be probably until Monday for us, but there will be flooding, that I'm certain of.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Hoping against all odds that it somehow swerves us here in Naples. We're staying put, regardless. This ain't gonna be fun.

Good luck mate, hope you and your loved ones get through this safely. We're not that far away

[Ekul]

Good luck mate, hope you and your loved ones get through this safely. We're not that far away

Near Amelia Island? I used to go there as a kid.

Hoping against all odds that it somehow swerves us here in Naples. We're staying put, regardless. This ain't gonna be fun.

Good luck!


My parents are in Ormond Beach near Daytona. Tiny strip of land, hoping the storm loses some steam by then or the whole place might get wiped off the map with a big storm surge.

[Giono]

https://www.facebook.com/abstvradio/videos/vb.558698930896002/1505370289562190/?type=2&theater

One confirmed dead, The island is inhospitable atm but thank fuck almost everyone is okay. RIP to the lives lost.

After seeing the footage of Barbuda, I'm amazed that there is only 1 death. The place was levelled.

[BER]

seen this post on another forum...unimaginable.

The highest sustained wind ever recorded in Ireland was 131 kmph.

Irma has expected sustained winds of up to 295 kmph!

[AndyMuller]

Scary stuff. Hope everyone affected gets through it safely.

Sent from my SM-J320FN using Tapatalk

[Chakan]

As predicted my flight has been cancelled.

Gotta get a hurricane kit sorted, food shopping done and fill my car this afternoon.

[afc tukrish]

Near Amelia Island? I used to go there as a kid.

Good luck!


My parents are in Ormond Beach near Daytona. Tiny strip of land, hoping the storm loses some steam by then or the whole place might get wiped off the map with a big storm surge.

Worked as Director of Coaching at Ormond Beach Soccer Club for two years 2013-15, the north and east coast of FL is horribly exposed to storm surges. Your parents moving inland toward Orlando or Gainesville might be wise...

[Peabee]

As predicted my flight has been cancelled.

Gotta get a hurricane kit sorted, food shopping done and fill my car this afternoon.

All the best.  Whereabouts are you? 

[PhilV]

To those RAWKites out there, stay safe!


Have friends on holiday in Florida atm and another couple and their young boy who live in Miami, sounds scary! The mother and Father of the girl in said couple live in Tortola and have been hit pretty hard I hear but not confirmed, not hearing at all from them for last 15 hours :-/

[Umbarto]

I am in Ocean Isle Beach, NC.  If it turns before Florida, probably head right into us as a cat 3, otherwise it will barrel through Georgia and SC and hit us as a cat 1.

Cat 1, hurricane party time.  Cat 3, drive my ass three hours away to Raleigh time.

Been through Fran, Hugo, Bertha, etc. down here.  Fran was a three when it hit but ground had been saturated by storms for a week or so previous, trees and flooding were horrible.  Remember sitting in our living room listening to trees snapping and landing all around the house, was crazy.  No intentions of doing that again.

Supplies sorted days ago, I am going surfing in a few hours :-D

[Lone Star Red]

Would driving not be the best way out?

Look up Hurricane Rita.

[Corkboy]

I am in Ocean Isle Beach, NC.  If it turns before Florida, probably head right into us as a cat 3, otherwise it will barrel through Georgia and SC and hit us as a cat 1.

Cat 1, hurricane party time.  Cat 3, drive my ass three hours away to Raleigh time.

I was in a Cat 3 hurricane in Cape Cod in '91. We adjourned to the basement of a motel I was working in, party, all went fine.

[Lone Star Red]

To think i moaned about what a crap summer we had in the UK and how the weather is much better elsewhere. Its only when nature reminds you of its force like this that you remember how lucky we are in the UK to have generally such benign weather.

It's funny, I'd take the weather here any day over the weather in the UK.

I just can't imagine having to deal with clouds and rain and cool/cold weather 80% of the year but I know a lot of you in the UK are just fine with that. But at the same time, I'm guessing most people here would take the warmth and sunshine and occasional threat of a hurricane which probably sounds unfathomable to people in your neck of the woods.

[Umbarto]

I was in a Cat 3 hurricane in Cape Cod in '91. We adjourned to the basement of a motel I was working in, party, all went fine.

Fran was shit for us down here.  At 5 feet above sea level and 500 yards or so from the ocean, category 3 is where I draw the line.

[Chakan]

All the best.  Whereabouts are you? 

I'm inland in Charlotte, NC shouldn't be hit too bad I don't think. Probably just some rain and maybe the tail end of the winds. I hope.

[Alan_X]

These big ones do seem to be becoming more frequent? (although I'm not sure that is logical / predicted by climate change models) We cancelled our honeymoon in Jamaica nearly 30 years ago when H. Gilbert hit, many hundreds were killed and it was described as a once in a lifetime event.

Hurricanes are formed when warm moist air rises off the sea into cool upper air. Rising sea temperatures make the temperature differential greater and windspeeds higher. Warmer air also holds more moisture and the potential rainfall is therefore greater.



This is just starting.

[DivisiveNewSigning]

Apparently 3 deaths confirmed in Puerto Rico.

This statement from the Red Cross really choked me up this morning.

Speaking from Antigua, the president of the Antigua and Barbuda Red Cross, Michael Joseph, told the BBC: "It's electricity, it's roads, it's water, it's schools, it's churches, it's supermarkets, shops, everything. There is literally nothing that currently exists in Barbuda right now."

[Umbarto]

This is just starting.

Without disagreeing on the obvious influence global warming is having on many things, gotta disagree with that.  Been through several years living on the east coast where we've dealt with more than one severe storm in a season, nevermind the few years there have been multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic at one time.  Hugo was in September 1989 and followed a very similar path to what Irma is doing now, Hazel was in 1954 and followed a similar path.

Hurricanes happen, it's nothing new.  Unfortunately where they go is a crap shoot, but sometimes we get lucky for a few years and they don't kill people.

[Zeb]

Just to give some scale to the size of this thing.



The area of the hurricane where wind speeds are 39mph+ is roughly the same size as Georgia (coloured in red, directly above Florida).

The area of the hurricane where wind speeds are 74mph+ is roughly the same size as Massachusetts (coloured in red again).



Gives some idea of why places are getting such a hammering, and why there's so much concern about what happens with Florida if it buzzsaws its way up from Miami. The good news is it has weakened to 175mph winds (from 185mph), but it's also about to enter very warm waters which may just allow it to continue as it is. One of the big impacts of climate change on this will be the warming waters. Not a cause of hurricanes but the chances of them being stronger, more dangerous, carrying more rain, lasting longer at higher strengths etc. increase.

[Alan_X]

Without disagreeing on the obvious influence global warming is having on many things, gotta disagree with that.  Been through several years living on the east coast where we've dealt with more than one severe storm in a season, nevermind the few years there have been multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic at one time.  Hugo was in September 1989 and followed a very similar path to what Irma is doing now, Hazel was in 1954 and followed a similar path.

Hurricanes happen, it's nothing new.  Unfortunately where they go is a crap shoot, but sometimes we get lucky for a few years and they don't kill people.

Err... ok. You're confusing weather with climate change. Each hurricane is a weather event. There isn't a linear progression of these things. Next year might have fewer and less destructive hurricanes hitting the South East of the US but if average sea temperatures continue to rise, the circumstances that create hurricanes will tend to create more violent storms that release more water as rain.

From the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory:

It is likely that climate warming will cause hurricanes in the coming century to be more intense globally and to have higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes. In our view, there are better than even odds that the numbers of very intense (category 4 and 5) hurricanes will increase by a substantial fraction in some basins.



https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

They don;t say that Harvey and Irma are the strength they are because of Global Warming but the science shows that the there will be more in number and of increasing strength on average.

Add in the general rise in sea temperatures and the risk of flooding in coastal areas is only going to increase.

I don't mind. My house is 300 feet above sea level and well inland.

[Umbarto]

Not really confusing anything with anything, was just saying it's nothing new and this just now isn't the start of some remarkable turn.

It's the ebb and flow of coastal living from what I've experienced in 30+ years here, as far as how many actually impact our lives, and numerous hurricanes on the east coast are nothing unexpected.

[vagabond]

"'while we cannot say climate change "caused" Hurricane Harvey (that is an ill-posed question), we can say that it exacerbated several characteristics of the storm in a way that greatly increased the risk of damage and loss of life. Climate change worsened the impact of Hurricane Harvey."

- Climate Scientist Michael Mann

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/28/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-more-deadly

[Alan_X]

Not really confusing anything with anything, was just saying it's nothing new and this just now isn't the start of some remarkable turn.

It's the ebb and flow of coastal living from what I've experienced in 30+ years here, as far as how many actually impact our lives, and numerous hurricanes on the east coast are nothing unexpected.

So your opinion is correct and climate scientists are wrong? Do you accept the existence of man-made climate change?

The seasons in the UK are the same as they have been in the sixty years I've been alive. Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter. Every year. Just the usual ebb and flow? Except the trend is that the climate is changing and it is already having an effect on the weather we experience.

[Trada]

Without disagreeing on the obvious influence global warming is having on many things, gotta disagree with that.  Been through several years living on the east coast where we've dealt with more than one severe storm in a season, nevermind the few years there have been multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic at one time.  Hugo was in September 1989 and followed a very similar path to what Irma is doing now, Hazel was in 1954 and followed a similar path.

Hurricanes happen, it's nothing new.  Unfortunately where they go is a crap shoot, but sometimes we get lucky for a few years and they don't kill people.

Part of Gobal warming is the top layers of Oceans and Seas warming up which is fuel for Hurricanes making them bigger and stronger and we are getting things like coral bleaching happeming.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Near Amelia Island? I used to go there as a kid.

Good luck!


My parents are in Ormond Beach near Daytona. Tiny strip of land, hoping the storm loses some steam by then or the whole place might get wiped off the map with a big storm surge.

I'm in Jacksonville, so yeah very near Amelia island, interesting little place there.

Hope your parents stay safe and sound through out this mate.

[Zeb]

[Phil M]

Just to give some scale to the size of this thing.

Terrifying.

[PhilV]

HOLEEEEEEE SHIT! That is HUGE! My friend just told me he evacuated from Miami to Orlando...but that looks like it will cover all of Florida! Fuck!

[Mister Flip Flop]

Bit of a panic now to move people further north according to news reports. Seems like they may have underestimated the size of the hurricane and a lot of folk may not have moved far enough away from the area it will make landfall. When you see the size of it compared to the size of Florida that's pretty sobering.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Its weakened to a category 4, which is still strong and damaging, and will make landfall in South Florida on Sunday as a category 4, by the time it reaches up north of the state it will go down to a category 2 apparently.

[Trada]

CNN saying 10s thousands of people are staying on the Keys saying things like the last one just missed us, oh I was Ok when Hurricane Andrew hit, even when told this is a totally different beast.

Some are going to ride it out on their boats.

Don't think I would gamble with my families lives like that.

[PhilV]

Some are going to ride it out on their boats.

WTF!?!?!?

Are these people mad?

[Phil M]

Its weakened to a category 4, which is still strong and damaging, and will make landfall in South Florida on Sunday as a category 4, by the time it reaches up north of the state it will go down to a category 2 apparently.

Much better news if that's what materialises.

[Trada]

WTF!?!?!?

Are these people mad?

Something about their anchors and double lines should be ok.

[rafathegaffa83]

The current tracking which has it going along the I-75 route via Miami, Orlando and up to Atlanta is devastating. Probably the worst possible scenario and the most likely to bring chaos

[Mister Flip Flop]

Latest report there stating it will lessen to a Cat 4 but because the waters are so warm south of Florida that there is a 50/50 chance it could land as a Cat 5.  Weather guy said even if it's only a Cat 3 when it hits land in Florida the damage to life and property will be catastrophic given the size.

[Trada]

Latest report there stating it will lessen to a Cat 4 but because the waters are so warm south of Florida that there is a 50/50 chance it could land as a Cat 5.  Weather guy said even if it's only a Cat 3 when it hits land in Florida the damage to life and property will be catastrophic given the size.

Just said on CNN that the winds are only 2mph below being a Cat 5

[Ekul]

People who stay where they are in south Florida are crazy.

My parents went to Tampa from their house on the east coast. Hoping that is safer. They'll be further from the ocean on higher ground, so hopefully they will be better off.

I'm in Atlanta and we will probably get some damaging storms here. Last time the spin-off from a big hurricane hit, it caused some tornados and knocked down a lot of trees. What I'm seeing now shows we might even get a category 1 hit. Just depends if it makes it this far.