Topic: Winning Title #19*

[Crosby Nick]

Them and Spurs

We did the double of Man Utd and Chelsea as well that season who were the biggest competition for title.

Imagine if at start of season someone had said 'we'll only lose two games and we'll do the double over the other two teams who finish in top 3'

You'd think fucking hell title is ours!

Forgot about that Spurs one. We battered them if I recall and they somehow flukes a last minute winner. On Halloween I think?

Looking back, 08/09 was genuinely a case of too many draws. Only 2 defeats but we did draw a lot. That claim that some people said last year was definitely unfair, 6 draws across a season is perfectly acceptable. Last season we were just freakishly unlucky not to win it.

[an tha]

32 wins normally guarantees the title.
That means we need to win 12 more games.

Still need to focus on one game at a time. Focus on the Next game then.

Never needed anywhere near 32 until last two seasons.

30 would have been the absolute max given the highest totals even Ferguson's Man Utd teams got was 90.

28-30 would win you every PL since footy was invented in 1992 up until 2017.

Even Chelsea in 2005 with the then record 95 pts only won 29 games.

[an tha]

Forgot about that Spurs one. We battered them if I recall and they somehow flukes a last minute winner. On Halloween I think?

Looking back, 08/09 was genuinely a case of too many draws. Only 2 defeats but we did draw a lot. That claim that some people said last year was definitely unfair, 6 draws across a season is perfectly acceptable. Last season we were just freakishly unlucky not to win it.

Absolutely freakishly unlucky - 97 pts was a better return than any title winning side in history bar the City team the year before with 100.

I was at that Spurs defeat - went 1 up early through Dirk, Carra put through own net and we lost it at death.

[TheFlyingScouseman]

Only time we’ve gone toe to toe with United for the title was in 08/09? Was a hard season to take, would have 19 titles to us with them stuck on 17

[free_at_last]

Absolutely freakishly unlucky - 97 pts was a better return than any title winning side in history bar the City team the year before with 100.

I was at that Spurs defeat - went 1 up early through Dirk, Carra put through own net and we lost it at death.

I'm perfectly ok with that title loss last year. Sliding doors, butterfly effect - call it what you want but I don't think we come from 3-0 down against Barcelona if we have a realistic chance of the title against Wolves.
As it happened we won number 6 and, despite having won the CL twice since we last won the league, those CL wins are like gold...and we get number 19 this year anyway....with many to follow

[redk84]

That 08/09 season has plenty of good memories....but yea the January draws, the United spawning victories at Villa and Spurs (fucking SPURS!!!! at half time HOW could you lose that???)

Our loss to Spurs when we battered them, the 4-4 draw with Arsenal was a deflation.

ahhhh

United did go on a ridiculous run of 1-0 wins if I remember too at one point.

13/14 season the sterling "offside" at Etihad was a complete joke....then the obvious stuff at the end...but the feeling on that run of winning games was incredible. Fulham away again was superb, THAT ball by Stevie to Sturridge was it? and young Texeira (the next Suso) providing an assist in the same game??
The first 20 odd minutes against Arsenal remains one of the most breathtaking matches I can remember. Suarez and Sturridge, all the best...

Last season just the tension of not being able to place one foot wrong. Wasn't too upset after the Etihad loss, but the draws against Leicester compounded with the West Ham and Everton AND United ones left me worried but still hopeful. Then City just didn't stop. But the CL made up for it.

I've always looked back on those seasons with mixed emotions but the bad stuff from them won't hurt as much come May, because it all gets wiped out if we win the league

[BassTunedToRed]

32 wins normally guarantees the title.
That means we need to win 12 more games.

Still need to focus on one game at a time. Focus on the Next game then.

As 35 points guarantees us the title anyway, unlikely to even need 12 now.

[Uncle Ronnie]

13/14 season the sterling "offside" at Etihad was a complete joke

I know I'm just picking something out but I keep seeing people mentioning this as if it had a massive effect on the game. We went 1-0 up about 5 minutes after the Sterling offside, it was a bad decision but it didn't matter in the end.
 

[Caligula?]

I know I'm just picking something out but I keep seeing people mentioning this as if it had a massive effect on the game. We went 1-0 up about 5 minutes after the Sterling offside, it was a bad decision but it didn't matter in the end.

What? You don't think a wrong decision that cost us a goal wouldn't have made a difference in a game we only lost 2-1?

[Uncle Ronnie]

What? You don't think a wrong decision that cost us a goal wouldn't have made a difference in a game we only lost 2-1?

It was 0-0 when it happened, we went 1-0 up 5 minutes later. It's unlikely it had any affect. Had it happened to put us 2-0 up I'd give it more credence.

[Crosby Nick]

What? You don't think a wrong decision that cost us a goal wouldn't have made a difference in a game we only lost 2-1?

It’s a bit unquantifiable. It’s never as simple as saying had that goal stood we’d have drawn, as said above the rest of the game would have panned out differently. In the same way it’s why when Wolves claim they’d have drawn at Anfield recently had their goal stood we know that in the second half we’d have probably stepped it up and found a winning goal anyway.

[VVM]

It’s a bit unquantifiable. It’s never as simple as saying had that goal stood we’d have drawn, as said above the rest of the game would have panned out differently. In the same way it’s why when Wolves claim they’d have drawn at Anfield recently had their goal stood we know that in the second half we’d have probably stepped it up and found a winning goal anyway.

I always think about things like this and it wrecks my brain, how the butterfly effect would mean everything would be different. Yes we'd have been awarded that goal but the entire sequence of subsequent events would be different since it's now a kickoff instead of a free kick and so surely the next goal doesn't happen.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

I always think about things like this and it wrecks my brain, how the butterfly effect would mean everything would be different. Yes we'd have been awarded that goal but the entire sequence of subsequent events would be different since it's now a kickoff instead of a free kick and so surely the next goal doesn't happen.

Cheers for that. I've always struggled to label and articulate this, especially to football fans. The idea that if that chance is taken, the disallowed goal is given then that becomes the outcome has always been ridiculous.

It's funny how with VAR teams talk about how decisions "cost" them points. Bitters at Brighton is a good one. Just compare that game to ours at Villa.
VAR goes against them to help Brighton equalise, with about 10 to go. At that stage, they have one point and could get all 3 if they go for it. They concede again and end up with none.

We concede, have an equaliser chalked off, but we eventually score, keep going and end up winning all 3 points.

Both teams have a contentious VAR go against them, one ends up with 0, the other 3.

[redk84]

I know I'm just picking something out but I keep seeing people mentioning this as if it had a massive effect on the game. We went 1-0 up about 5 minutes after the Sterling offside, it was a bad decision but it didn't matter in the end.

When writing that I thought it had been at 1-1. Just off the top of my dome really
Fair enough if we scored 5 minutes later then may not have been that much of an issue, as I argue the very same thing for all the people complaining abo0ut all the "favourable" decisions we get for or against ignoring the fact we're the best team in the land and with time left in the game we more than anyone can put a bad score right, and have form for it.

or basically what Charlie Adams..... said above me 

[MacKon]

So seeing as we need to drop below 2.00 PPG (aprox) for a 17 game stretch in order to lose the league, I decided to map the PPG Moving Average across the last 100 games to see when it last happened:



It happens here at Match 24 on the chart. In other words 2 years ago (Jan 2018) ….. Coincidentally that's around the same period when City where last able to hit a PPG of 3 in a 17 game stretch themselves. That's the only time they have ever managed it and the chances of them repeating it again look very slim indeed.

Would you mind if I 'borrowed' it and shared it through some social media?

[BassTunedToRed]

It’s a bit unquantifiable. It’s never as simple as saying had that goal stood we’d have drawn, as said above the rest of the game would have panned out differently. In the same way it’s why when Wolves claim they’d have drawn at Anfield recently had their goal stood we know that in the second half we’d have probably stepped it up and found a winning goal anyway.

Need to use ESPN's VAR algorithm thing to figure it all out 

[JCB]

Would you mind if I 'borrowed' it and shared it through some social media?

Ordinarily, I'd say go ahead, however I'd say wait a little bit...  Stephen (Aka Babayugu) is writing an article about this and some other vizzes we put together which should go out today-tomorrow and he'll link it to his account as well as the CraqueStats account.

I've also tarted this one up a bit more since then: have gone back to the beginning of the Klopp era and used dates on the x-axis to make it clearer.

I'll chase him up on that.

[redk84]

Just looking at this season again...
gonna role play a bit and take out how well we've been up to now etc. and try judge our remaining fixtures against City's on opposition form at the moment.

Yes this could and may well be a completely pointless excercise, but im bored so here goes
(not including our home fixtures)


+ im glad we have gotten southampton away done, City still have to go there and they seem to have found their groove
- they played Arsenal away at the right time, we still gotta do that - could be tricky. Not sure if a resurgence is going on there as haven't payed much attention to them but Arteta is doing ok AFAIK?
- Everton away is potential banana skin and they have a lot to prove after our kids beat them. could be tricky. Ancelotti would have had a bit more time by then to lift them
+ they have leicester away left....Brendan would like to have a go im sure
+ they have Chelsea away left and its been highlighted how off their form is at stamford bridge so may have a point to prove. City also lost there last season
+ sheffield united away could cause them problems. decent team
- west ham away now they have a bit of a new manager lift could be tough (even though its Moyes) . they like raising their game for us too
-newcastle away, until the last couple seasons i dont think this was our favourite fixture but nevertheless could be tricky
+They have to go to Spurs and im sure that wont be easy for them with the mini-history they have and Mourinho too

Norwich are bottom, we both have Watford and Brighton away, Palace at home. Shouldn't expect them to have any issues with their home games tho if they feel like throwing in a few L's that would be fine by me
Have not looked into when we are playing these teams and potential relegation scraps/top 4 scraps that would influence things further


That was fun. 

[Barneylfc∗]

Is right. Start a new thread if you need to moan about the AFCON.

Or use the existing one https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329633.80

[Barneylfc∗]

I know I'm just picking something out but I keep seeing people mentioning this as if it had a massive effect on the game. We went 1-0 up about 5 minutes after the Sterling offside, it was a bad decision but it didn't matter in the end.

Henderson had a great chance to make it 2-2 in the second half too. Ballooned a shot over the bar from a cross when he was about 8 yards out.
Plenty of decisions in the Chelsea game after it fucked us too. Eto'o not being sent off after a couple of minutes and scoring their second(?). Eto'o again in the second half taking out Suarez off the ball for what should've been a stonewall penalty right in front of Howard Webb are 2 that immediately spring to mind.

[Crosby Nick]

I think the only time a disallowed goal, or wrongly allowed goal can make an obvious impact is when it’s a last kick of the game job.

[PoetryInMotion]

I think the only time a disallowed goal, or wrongly allowed goal can make an obvious impact is when it’s a last kick of the game job.

 

[Crosby Nick]

Haha, didn’t mean that as a joke! But in all other cases you could argue the game would pan out differently had a goal been given. When it’s a last minute goal it’s too late to do anything about it, if that makes sense.

[PoetryInMotion]

Haha, didn’t mean that as a joke! But in all other cases you could argue the game would pan out differently had a goal been given. When it’s a last minute goal it’s too late to do anything about it, if that makes sense.

It makes some sense, but don't shout that out too loud. Will give the already abysmal standard of refereeing an excuse to plummet further 

On a serious note, maybe an incorrect decision or two does not change the result in the way we think for certain, but there IS a chance that on balance of play, the opposition may have deserved a different result barring the decision(s). That 'chance' is enough to make people complain that it has cost them a result.

[UntouchableLuis]

Just looking at this season again...
gonna role play a bit and take out how well we've been up to now etc. and try judge our remaining fixtures against City's on opposition form at the moment.

Yes this could and may well be a completely pointless excercise, but im bored so here goes
(not including our home fixtures)


+ im glad we have gotten southampton away done, City still have to go there and they seem to have found their groove
- they played Arsenal away at the right time, we still gotta do that - could be tricky. Not sure if a resurgence is going on there as haven't payed much attention to them but Arteta is doing ok AFAIK?
- Everton away is potential banana skin and they have a lot to prove after our kids beat them. could be tricky. Ancelotti would have had a bit more time by then to lift them
+ they have leicester away left....Brendan would like to have a go im sure
+ they have Chelsea away left and its been highlighted how off their form is at stamford bridge so may have a point to prove. City also lost there last season
+ sheffield united away could cause them problems. decent team
- west ham away now they have a bit of a new manager lift could be tough (even though its Moyes) . they like raising their game for us too
-newcastle away, until the last couple seasons i dont think this was our favourite fixture but nevertheless could be tricky
+They have to go to Spurs and im sure that wont be easy for them with the mini-history they have and Mourinho too

Norwich are bottom, we both have Watford and Brighton away, Palace at home. Shouldn't expect them to have any issues with their home games tho if they feel like throwing in a few L's that would be fine by me
Have not looked into when we are playing these teams and potential relegation scraps/top 4 scraps that would influence things further


That was fun. 

I agree with most of that. I've said before when you play teams makes all the difference - so far this season things have fallen pretty nicely for us.

I think we'll drop points to Everton and maybe Wolves. Think we'll be too good for West Ham. Arsenal could be a draw but I'd also expect us to have too much for their defence.

The Newcastle game will hopefully be too late to matter, same with Chelsea and Arsenal for that matter.

I think City will drop points either vs Spurs or Southampton but can see them beating Chelsea and Leicester- both of whom haven't done brilliantly when faced with genuine quality this season.

And then of course you have our match with them where a draw would be more than enough. Even a loss might be fine if we continue the way we are.

For me, if we beat United and Wolves it's done in my mind.

[MJD-L4]

I agree with most of that. I've said before when you play teams makes all the difference - so far this season things have fallen pretty nicely for us.

I think we'll drop points to Everton and maybe Wolves. Think we'll be too good for West Ham. Arsenal could be a draw but I'd also expect us to have too much for their defence.

The Newcastle game will hopefully be too late to matter, same with Chelsea and Arsenal for that matter.

I think City will drop points either vs Spurs or Southampton but can see them beating Chelsea and Leicester- both of whom haven't done brilliantly when faced with genuine quality this season.

And then of course you have our match with them where a draw would be more than enough. Even a loss might be fine if we continue the way we are.

For me, if we beat United and Wolves it's done in my mind.

Why Everton? I know it's a derby but they're absolute dog shit! The only loss I can see is City away. Avoid defeat at the emptyhad and we're going unbeaten.

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

I agree with most of that. I've said before when you play teams makes all the difference - so far this season things have fallen pretty nicely for us.

Its swings and roundabouts. Playing Norwich in the first game of the season was the hardest time to play them as they hadn't realised how out of depth they were. We also played Southampton away at a tricky time given we went to extra time in the Super Cup. Playing Wolves days after they came back to beat Man City made that fixture infinitely harder too. Burnley were in much better form when we played them compared to now, and playing Watford in their first game with a new manager was as hard as you're going to get it against them. West Ham away would have been a peice of piss if we played the fixture when it was originally scheduled, now its tricky.

But then conversely we got City without Ederson and Spurs without Kane. We played Bournemouth when they became shit and Leicester just after City had shown them they weren't title contenders. Our Christmas schedule in general was kind in terms of rest.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

We play Arsenal in the last 3 gameweeks of the season, I imagine that won't hold much of importance if we maintain our form.

[MJD-L4]

We'll have it won by the time we play Arsenal. We usually spank them anyway.

[UntouchableLuis]

Why Everton? I know it's a derby but they're absolute dog shit! The only loss I can see is City away. Avoid defeat at the emptyhad and we're going unbeaten.

When was the last time we won comfortably at Goodison? Not that often. They will give us a game. We should win but could I see a draw? Yes.

I dont think we'll win every game left but don't see many losses. At most 2 losses. We just need to keep turning potential draws into wins and we'll be fine.

[Paul1611]

If we’ve won it with 3,4,5 games to go, expect focus to switch to champions league with heavily rotated league line ups.  Last 3 games would be tricky if this is the case....

[redk84]

I dont think we'll win every game left but don't see many losses. At most 2 losses. We just need to keep turning potential draws into wins and we'll be fine.

That's what we have been doing so well...there are some that will have us believe its because of luck and VAR/ref decisions...
But how many of those games were we REALLY lucky? There have been a handful sure. For the most part we've bossed each and every game where it matters, in both boxes.

If people want to talk about opposition missing chances well we miss a fair few too! And plus there's the whole butterfly effect stuff mentioned in previous pages.

There has been luck no doubt. maybe we should have about 2/3 more draws and a loss? But with a run like we've been on lady luck always plays a part and i'll take it because god knows that bitch has spanked us a fair few times in recent seasons. 

Everton match will be their everything.....as it always is....and even though we don't always win we don't lose. It will be City away and Wolves away that I think could be the hardest fixtures left for us to be honest

[Fromola]

When was the last time we won comfortably at Goodison? Not that often. They will give us a game. We should win but could I see a draw? Yes.

I dont think we'll win every game left but don't see many losses. At most 2 losses. We just need to keep turning potential draws into wins and we'll be fine.

We usually draw at Goodison, we haven't won many there since Rafa left.

They collectively shit themselves at Anfield but it's always tough at the pit with their snarling crowd behind them.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

On another note, no warm weather training this year

https://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/jurgen-klopp-break-liverpool-tradition-17577440

[Roady]

Why Everton? I know it's a derby but they're absolute dog shit! The only loss I can see is City away. Avoid defeat at the emptyhad and we're going unbeaten.

It’s not just the derby. If you think we’re going unbeaten al season fair play. I’ll take one game at a time and see how we go. The derby at goodison usually is never easy. It’s not hard to figure out.

[Linudden]

We play Arsenal in the last 3 gameweeks of the season, I imagine that won't hold much of importance if we maintain our form.

Chelsea too. Then Newcastle away. Let's just say keeping it double-digits until three games to go would be nice 

[Lotus Eater]

For me, if we beat United and Wolves it's done in my mind.

I am also looking at how we stand after these two games.

If we win both, I'll start to feel very confident.

At the moment, I just don't want to jinx us

[Crosby Nick]

Chelsea too. Then Newcastle away. Let's just say keeping it double-digits until three games to go would be nice 

This would be a lovely dilemma to have but I can see Arsenal away being tricky if we are still unbeaten at that point as they’ll be he’ll bent on stopping us going unbeaten all season. That said, if we’re still unbeaten at that point we’ll almost certainly be champions already so I’d like to deal with that ‘problem’ when we get to it.

[naYoRHa2b]

It's a shame we dont have arsenal sooner. As much as arteta has lifted them, they still look well short, tired and not much better at the back.

[thejbs]

If we get the same results in our closing fixtures as we did in the same games last year we'll finish on 104pts... turn the City loss into a draw/win and you have a nice 105-7pt unbeaten title.