Author Topic: The Horse Racing thread  (Read 329904 times)

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4560 on: January 22, 2022, 09:22:17 pm »
I think Allaho in the Ryanair is bomb proof too because of lack of competition. Shan Blue might be on my agenda as the saver at some point this week. He'd have won the Charlie Hall by 2 furlongs if he stood up. Think Ginto looks nice in the Albert Bartlett if they send him there.
Completely agree about Allaho, hopefully he’ll show tomorrow that the John Durkan hasn’t left it’s mark. I’m hoping they go the Ballymore with Ginto as I think he could make it a real test of stamina and win it from the front.
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Offline Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4561 on: January 22, 2022, 09:28:36 pm »
Have you backed him for the Ballymore Duvva? If so I hope they send him there for you but now Blazing Khal is done until Punchestown the Albert Bartlett looks a desperate race and we know Ginto is nothing if not a grinder.

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4562 on: January 22, 2022, 09:34:05 pm »
Have you backed him for the Ballymore Duvva? If so I hope they send him there for you but now Blazing Khal is done until Punchestown the Albert Bartlett looks a desperate race and we know Ginto is nothing if not a grinder.
Yeah I got him before the Lawlors when he was 20/1 but see he’s now Fav for the Albert Bartlett after the other one came out. Still hopeful as Hollow Games looks more of a slow boat they go with him in the AB.
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4563 on: January 22, 2022, 10:23:11 pm »
Also notice Galopin Des Champs price has shrunk a lot over the last few days for the Turners Novice so perhaps he will go up against Bob Olinger in the shorter race. Although it could depend on what happens at Leopardstown if they meet there
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Offline Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4564 on: January 23, 2022, 04:00:50 pm »
Allaho is in that unlucky position of being between Championship race distances. If he had a bit more tow or could stay he’d be much more revered. He’s a great racehorse.

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4565 on: January 23, 2022, 04:12:23 pm »
Yep really nice performance. A very good horse and doesn’t seem to have much obvious opposition for the Ryanair.

Nasty fall at the last for Battleoverdoyen, not sure whether he was ok but didn’t look good
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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4566 on: January 23, 2022, 04:26:47 pm »
Yep really nice performance. A very good horse and doesn’t seem to have much obvious opposition for the Ryanair.

Nasty fall at the last for Battleoverdoyen, not sure whether he was ok but didn’t look good

He's safe and well mate  :)

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4567 on: January 23, 2022, 05:05:41 pm »
He's safe and well mate  :)
Ah that’s great to hear, thanks for confirming
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Offline aedge659

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4568 on: January 23, 2022, 08:52:54 pm »
Yep I’ve been gradually getting my ante post bets on since last March, most have been in the last 2 months though. How about you? It’s not what it once was, really difficult to get a decent price on anything after they’ve had a run these days.
As you say both seem obvious winners but usually a few of the shortys get beaten at Cheltenham. Remember Douvan at 2/9! Only Appreciate It has the class to give Honeysuckle a race if she’s at her best. Even then it’s a bit of a long shot at the moment considering he hasn’t been seen since March.

Haven't done anything yet, sure bookies normally have more specials available at the stage. Was hoping to get a bit more on the honeysuckle/shishkin double. The last couple of years I've normally waited for the festive races when alot run and go from there, but think I'll just leave it now unless some good specials pop up. I'm basically a favourite backer so just try to squeeze that extra value.

Offline goalrushatgoodison

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4569 on: January 24, 2022, 01:21:33 pm »
Wondering what you guys think of Farclas at 12/1 for the Cross Country. He has a good festival record winning the triumph and coming second to a blot on the handicap in the PP plate last year. That latter effort was over a distance thats probably on the short side for him now. At least it would need to be if he is going to be competitive in the XC!

My only fear is that the Irish handicapper has only put him up 5 pounds for a string of decent efforts. If the English handicapper was to be as lenient he would actually be very well in handicap wise at the festival again this year particularly if we assume that he is going to improve for further which I am already assuming he will when considering him for XC. His run in the GN last year basically confirms that anyhow. My instinct though is that the British handicapper will give him at least 8 pounds for his efforts since he was last assessed there. I dont think Gordon will decide on the target until he see the weights.

I am torn between taking the 12s and waiting to see how things develop.

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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4570 on: January 24, 2022, 07:10:58 pm »
Has there been any talk of him going for the Cross Country? As you say difficult one to weigh up, McManus has just bought a new one that’s been put in as Fav and Tiger Roll will be there again so is he likely to shorten much if you wait a bit?
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Offline goalrushatgoodison

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4571 on: January 24, 2022, 08:15:47 pm »
Has there been any talk of him going for the Cross Country? As you say difficult one to weigh up, McManus has just bought a new one that’s been put in as Fav and Tiger Roll will be there again so is he likely to shorten much if you wait a bit?

No, no mention at all  :-[ But he is entered!

And that's my problem, he will definitely shorten if they indicate they are going here as he will be mid 150s rated at least in England which will be a lot higher than most here, so i cant wait forever.

I just think if the GN is his main target this year he may wish to take this on in route rather than a festival handicap that could take more out of him. Also he has a similar profile to Tiger Roll and Elliot does like this race as  a GN prep. He has won it three times immediately before picking up the Aintree race,

He doesn.t have an entry in the DRF so I am thinking this could mean one of three things - He is protecting his mark, he is going the XC route as prep for GN as he wants to be fresh for Aintree or he has had a setback.

Clear as mud so!

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Offline Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4572 on: January 24, 2022, 08:18:46 pm »
I'd be surprised if they run Farclas in the Cross Country against Tiger Roll. Same ownership and trainer, Tiger Roll going for a record breaking Cheltenham win. If Farclas is well handicapped and I've no reason to believe he isn't he may deny him that win. I'd say if he does run it's because Tiger Roll isn't showing what they'd want. I reckon he'll run in a handicap personally.

Offline goalrushatgoodison

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4573 on: January 24, 2022, 09:45:30 pm »
I'd be surprised if they run Farclas in the Cross Country against Tiger Roll. Same ownership and trainer, Tiger Roll going for a record breaking Cheltenham win. If Farclas is well handicapped and I've no reason to believe he isn't he may deny him that win. I'd say if he does run it's because Tiger Roll isn't showing what they'd want. I reckon he'll run in a handicap personally.

Level weights in the XC Gerry.

But yeah I am slightly worried about him going the handicap route alright and I expect he will still be well handicapped when he gets his new English mark but PP don't have him in the betting for any of them and if we accept they won't run him in the plate again there is only the ultima in any case.

I don't think Gordon likes the Ultima full stop but particularly as a warm up for GN, it takes a lot out of a horse. Last year when Farclas ended up rated 146 and 1 pound to high for Kim Muir he went for the shorter race.

I am concerned about the Tiger factor that you have highlighted, that's definitely something to consider. Maybe he wont run at Cheltenham at all but if he does I think it will be the XC.

OK I spoke to soon - he is actually entered at DRF - in a 3 mile bloody hurdle. I give up  :)
« Last Edit: January 24, 2022, 10:11:39 pm by goalrushatgoodison »
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4574 on: January 25, 2022, 06:08:58 pm »
See De Bromhead has decided that Bob O goes straight to Cheltenham (despite saying he’d run at the DRF after the last race). Think the fact he was available at 10/3 for the DRF race probably told us that was always likely.
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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4575 on: January 26, 2022, 09:55:07 pm »
See De Bromhead has decided that Bob O goes straight to Cheltenham (despite saying he’d run at the DRF after the last race). Think the fact he was available at 10/3 for the DRF race probably told us that was always likely.

Can't believe that decision, his jumping leaves a lot to be desired. All aboard the l'homme Presse train for me I think!
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4576 on: January 27, 2022, 10:14:49 am »
Can't believe that decision, his jumping leaves a lot to be desired. All aboard the l'homme Presse train for me I think!

My favourite horse so far this year. Can't see him beating the big guns though, he's in that terrible position of too good for a handicap at the festival but won't win one of the big ones in my opinion.
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4577 on: January 27, 2022, 02:17:27 pm »
Klassical Dream just threw in stinker of a performance there. Wouldn't rule him out for the stayers because he's mental and can throw out a performance like that, but not encouraging signs.
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4578 on: January 27, 2022, 02:23:14 pm »
Klassical Dream just threw in stinker of a performance there. Wouldn't rule him out for the stayers because he's mental and can throw out a performance like that, but not encouraging signs.

Ah missed it as was on a work call. I know he had to give weight away but shouldn’t have been a problem against those he was up against. As you say he has been known to run badly in the past but had seemingly put that behind him the last two runs.
I’ve got a decent price on Champ so hoping he doesn’t do the same on Saturday
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Offline Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4579 on: January 27, 2022, 02:31:32 pm »
Something has to be amiss there. He went out like a light. I’ve never seen that calibre of horse go from tanking to 10 lengths behind so quickly.

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4580 on: January 27, 2022, 02:44:47 pm »
Just watched it. Strange as you say, you wouldn’t have thought there was anything wrong until the final couple of flights, just completely emptied

Be interested to hear what Townend says
« Last Edit: January 27, 2022, 02:52:10 pm by duvva »
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4581 on: January 27, 2022, 03:07:04 pm »
Agreed lads it was really strange and to make it stranger he was probably jumping the best I've ever seen him  ;D

Royal Kahala is a horse on the serious upgrade. Be interesting to see where she goes at the festival, very ground dependent.
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4582 on: January 27, 2022, 04:08:14 pm »
Mullins has one in the bumper at Gowran, backed in to 1/3 and already 9/1 for the champion bumper without seeing a racecourse  ;D
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4583 on: January 27, 2022, 04:12:17 pm »
Really has been smashed hasn’t it. Read something about Ricci having bought a load of new young ones with potential to come through over the next year or two. Perhaps this is one of them
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4584 on: January 27, 2022, 04:16:52 pm »
Guess you’d have to be pretty pleased with that.

Mainly 5s and 6s now for the bumper
« Last Edit: January 27, 2022, 04:18:44 pm by duvva »
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4585 on: January 27, 2022, 05:38:38 pm »
Ferny Hollow injured again and out of Cheltenham. That’s killed a few of my early multiples

A real shame as he was looking very good again, but clearly difficult to keep sound. The Arkle looks a fair bit more open now
« Last Edit: January 27, 2022, 05:44:20 pm by duvva »
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Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4586 on: January 27, 2022, 05:58:09 pm »
Guess you’d have to be pretty pleased with that.

Mainly 5s and 6s now for the bumper

This is what I was on about a week or so ago. You nearly need to back these horses for Cheltenham Antepost betting before their first appearance on a course if you want any sort of a price. Was it always this way?
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline FlashGordon

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4587 on: January 27, 2022, 06:00:00 pm »
Ferny Hollow injured again and out of Cheltenham. That’s killed a few of my early multiples

A real shame as he was looking very good again, but clearly difficult to keep sound. The Arkle looks a fair bit more open now


Well that's a terrible bit of news for a Thursday evening. Unlucky mate. Mullins always seem to have a few that are top class but can't get on the track enough.
So bloody what? If you watch football to be absolutely miserable then go watch cricket.

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4588 on: January 27, 2022, 06:24:19 pm »
This is what I was on about a week or so ago. You nearly need to back these horses for Cheltenham Antepost betting before their first appearance on a course if you want any sort of a price. Was it always this way?
It’s certainly seems a lot worse recently. One good run out of one of the big stables and a horse is a single figure price or worse. Look a Galopin Des Champs for the Brown Asvisory it’s already 13/8 after one run over fences in a novice. Might not even go for that race!
You really have to be prepared to take a real guess these days to get a decent price, usually on horses who’s target is unclear. Absolutely minefield really when they can get injured or swapped late on, which has always been the case but there are more options now to swap to and the prices offered aren’t great.

As I said before I’ve got a nice price on Echoes In Rain for the Mares, as I took the chance she wouldn’t be up to the Champion Hurdle level but still she looks more likely to go County Hurdle, but immediately that that might be the most likely target and she’s no bigger than 12/1 for it.

I suppose what I’m trying to say in a long winded rant kinda way is that you can only get a decent price these days on a real guess like for a race they aren’t supposedly heading for. Bookies don’t seem to offer any fair prices that take into account the fact a horse can get injured, change target, lose form, they just cut them to nothing at the drop of a hat
« Last Edit: January 27, 2022, 06:30:42 pm by duvva »
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4589 on: January 27, 2022, 06:49:48 pm »
This is what I was on about a week or so ago. You nearly need to back these horses for Cheltenham Antepost betting before their first appearance on a course if you want any sort of a price. Was it always this way?
Mullins didn’t sound too keen to go to Cheltenham with Mercurey from what I’ve just read so he’d probably have been even shorter if that was the intention.
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Offline aedge659

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4590 on: January 27, 2022, 06:50:47 pm »
This is what I was on about a week or so ago. You nearly need to back these horses for Cheltenham Antepost betting before their first appearance on a course if you want any sort of a price. Was it always this way?

Agree with Duvva, don't think social media helps. I remember seeing a fair few sharing quite decent antepost accas last year. Bookies don't need any excuse do they. Like when people had Leicester to win the league at massive odds the year they did, then the season after your couldn't get anywhere near the odds on a complete outsider to win the league.

Hope some of you early ones pay off duvva, I'm defo leaving it till any specials take my fancy.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2022, 08:36:08 pm by aedge659 »

Offline aedge659

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4591 on: January 27, 2022, 06:54:19 pm »
I post that and then see Sky Bet have gone non runner no bet on all races now, maybe I will 😁

Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4592 on: January 28, 2022, 07:53:26 pm »
Decent Mares Novice race at Fairyhouse tomorrow, Allegorie De Vassy is Fav for the Cheltenham race but Brandy Love is currently Fav for tomorrows slightly shorter race. Mullins got another couple in there, so should be informative.

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Offline ohweloveyerbaldyhead

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4593 on: January 29, 2022, 01:03:19 am »
My favourite horse so far this year. Can't see him beating the big guns though, he's in that terrible position of too good for a handicap at the festival but won't win one of the big ones in my opinion.

I think he's a proper proper Grade 1 chaser myself now. Really fancy him for the Turners and hope the big names do run to get a nice price on the day.
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4594 on: January 29, 2022, 12:53:27 pm »
Pied Piper looked effortless there. Russell supposedly thinks the world of Fil Dor so it’ll be interesting to hear what he has to say.
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4595 on: January 29, 2022, 01:47:24 pm »
Think Brandy Love would be quite good if she could jump in a straight line.
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Offline duvva 💅

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4596 on: January 29, 2022, 03:13:03 pm »
Paisley Park that was amazing
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Offline Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4597 on: January 29, 2022, 03:13:38 pm »
Stayers Hurdle division is a collection of mediocre and inconsistent animals that take it in turns to win. Chantry House was unsatisfactory too. He got fortunate winning grade 1s against average novices. Could not have him for a big race.

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4598 on: January 29, 2022, 03:15:30 pm »
Traded at 1000 for £33 after that start

Disappointed in Champ there, should have been able to see that out up the hill but didn’t seem to go quite as smoothly as at Ascot. As you say Gerry not anything in that division that can be relied upon.

Chantry House just not good enough
« Last Edit: January 29, 2022, 03:18:03 pm by duvva »
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Offline Gerry Attrick

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Re: The Horse Racing thread
« Reply #4599 on: January 30, 2022, 09:44:23 am »
Donation day today with Farouk D’Alene back out in the grade 3 at Naas. He’s got to have a huge chance but in a weird way I think this grade 3 is stronger than the grade 1 he got touched off in at Christmas.