Author Topic: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread  (Read 151029 times)

Offline GBF

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #80 on: November 13, 2008, 03:35:17 pm »
According to traditional ways of assessing these things that stock is now a screaming buy - I know of quite a number of stocks that are in that situation right now.

Problem is the 'traditional perspective' did not predict where we are now and it sure as hell will not predict what is coming next.

I'm expecting some form of economic Armageddon not too far down the track - expect to throw all the rules out the window. Would not be at all surprised if we hit 20 - 25% unemployment across much of the occidental Earth in years to come. I would not be touching any stock at the moment in terms of going long, even those whose valuations are less than the amount of cash they have in their coffers, for example.

Cheers.  Tried to google but does not seem to have an answer anywhere.  Deflation of the economy is expected if prices of commodities continue to go down and interest rates drop again. 

I work in automotive electronics, things never been so depressing.  Wish the government print some cash and hand it to us.  It will be bad for sometime but in the long run may get better.
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Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #81 on: November 18, 2008, 12:55:24 am »
We are due for a rally in stocks at some stage - though I do take the view that most indicies will be range-bound for the foreseeable future, and probably more likely for some years.
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Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #82 on: November 18, 2008, 01:21:10 pm »
A prescient look into the future, at least from my perspective:

If all else fails, devalue the dollar

The Fed is mothballing its $559bn supplementary financing program. Or, to put it even more obliquely:

Washington - The balance in the Treasury’s Supplementary Financing Account will decrease in the coming weeks as outstanding supplementary financing program bills mature. This action is being taken to preserve flexibility in the conduct of debt management policy in meeting the government’s financing needs.

The SFP is the principle means by which the Federal Reserve has been offsetting - since September - its massively expanded liquidity operations.

It’s basically a Treasury bill issuance scheme: by issuing new Treasuries, the Fed basically drains capital from the system, offsetting or ’sterilising’, in Fed jargon, the excess liquidity created by its vastly expanded open market ops.

But there is a problem. What with the TARP, as well as a host of other government interventions, there is a huge financing need at the Treasury. One which will need to be funded through issuance of Treasury bonds and bills. There’s consequently then, something of a glut. One which would be - somewhat - alleviated by ending the SFB
And the SFB can be unwound because the Fed is effectively sterilising its open market ops by another means: encouraging massive excess reserves. Banks have to post reserves at the Fed - normally around $7bn worth. But bank reserves deposited at the Fed are currently pushing $1 trillion. Part of the reason for this is that the Fed has increased the interest rate it pays on reserves (or rather, decreased the penalty to the target rate). Part of this is because banks are looking for somewhere safe to hoard cash. Depositing with the Fed, in the current market, is a competitive store of value.

And in terms of monetary supply, banks increasing their reserves with the Fed acts just like the SFB does, because it is a drain on liquidity in the system.

But as Michael Cloherty at Bank of America observes in a note today…

…there are costs: The Fed funds market will be massively distorted as bank reserves climb well over $1T ($7bn is a normal level), so banks will never get caught short of reserves and need to borrow in the funds market. In addition, excess reserves are likely to climb to roughly 10% of total bank assets. Ratios like net interest margin and return on assets will be weighted down by all of those reserves-look for some crowding out effect on bank balance sheets.

There is another cost too. As interest rates move to zero, the Fed’s becomes less and less effective: low-yielding treasury bills are barely distinguishable from cash.
The answer to this is to expand the balance sheet: the Fed has to grow larger and larger to allow it to continue to affect rates.

This is all remarkably similar to the policy of quantitative easing adopted by the Bank of Japan in the 1990s. It’s odd really that the Fed is not giving much clarity on its actions. Odder yet that people aren’t looking to Ben Bernanke’s numerous papers on fighting deflation to see the germ of current policy.

We reprise the below, from 2002:

So what then might the Fed do if its target interest rate, the overnight federal funds rate, fell to zero? One relatively straightforward extension of current procedures would be to try to stimulate spending by lowering rates further out along the Treasury term structure–that is, rates on government bonds of longer maturities. One approach, similar to an action taken in the past couple of years by the Bank of Japan, would be for the Fed to commit to holding the overnight rate at zero for some specified period. Because long-term interest rates represent averages of current and expected future short-term rates, plus a term premium, a commitment to keep short-term rates at zero for some time–if it were credible–would induce a decline in longer-term rates. A more direct method, which I personally prefer, would be for the Fed to begin announcing explicit ceilings for yields on longer-maturity Treasury debt (say, bonds maturing within the next two years). The Fed could enforce these interest-rate ceilings by committing to make unlimited purchases of securities up to two years from maturity at prices consistent with the targeted yields. If this program were successful, not only would yields on medium-term Treasury securities fall, but (because of links operating through expectations of future interest rates) yields on longer-term public and private debt (such as mortgages) would likely fall as well.

To repeat, I suspect that operating on rates on longer-term Treasuries would provide sufficient leverage for the Fed to achieve its goals in most plausible scenarios. If lowering yields on longer-dated Treasury securities proved insufficient to restart spending, however, the Fed might next consider attempting to influence directly the yields on privately issued securities. Unlike some central banks, and barring changes to current law, the Fed is relatively restricted in its ability to buy private securities directly. However, the Fed does have broad powers to lend to the private sector indirectly via banks, through the discount window. Therefore a second policy option, complementary to operating in the markets for Treasury and agency debt, would be for the Fed to offer fixed-term loans to banks at low or zero interest, with a wide range of private assets (including, among others, corporate bonds, commercial paper, bank loans, and mortgages) deemed eligible as collateral. For example, the Fed might make 90-day or 180-day zero-interest loans to banks, taking corporate commercial paper of the same maturity as collateral. Pursued aggressively, such a program could significantly reduce liquidity and term premiums on the assets used as collateral. Reductions in these premiums would lower the cost of capital both to banks and the nonbank private sector, over and above the beneficial effect already conferred by lower interest rates on government securities.

Bernanke then wonders why - if the policy options for fighting deflation are so varied - did Japan fail, through its quantitative easing programme? Tellingly, he concludes that the problem there was as much political as economic.

The question then, is whether the US quantitative easing program will succeed.
In the event it does not, one final deflation-fighting measure to consider, from Ben:

Although a policy of intervening to affect the exchange value of the dollar is nowhere on the horizon today, it’s worth noting that there have been times when exchange rate policy has been an effective weapon against deflation. A striking example from U.S. history is Franklin Roosevelt’s 40 percent devaluation of the dollar against gold in 1933-34, enforced by a program of gold purchases and domestic money creation. The devaluation and the rapid increase in money supply it permitted ended the U.S. deflation remarkably quickly. Indeed, consumer price inflation in the United States, year on year, went from -10.3 percent in 1932 to -5.1 percent in 1933 to 3.4 percent in 1934.17 The economy grew strongly, and by the way, 1934 was one of the best years of the century for the stock market. If nothing else, the episode illustrates that monetary actions can have powerful effects on the economy, even when the nominal interest rate is at or near zero, as was the case at the time of Roosevelt’s devaluation.

link
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Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #83 on: November 20, 2008, 02:23:34 am »
We are due for a rally in stocks at some stage - though I do take the view that most indicies will be range-bound for the foreseeable future, and probably more likely for some years.

Well, the rally lasted a whole day - I can't emphasise how much this thing is really a once in a lifetime event - the losses are staggering and there is little light at the end of the tunnel.
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Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #84 on: December 3, 2008, 01:23:48 pm »
Well, I can't see gold staying up while everything else is tanking. It will fall off the cliff at some stage and when it does it will be with a stupendous plummet.
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Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #85 on: January 20, 2009, 11:54:09 am »
....back to this thread after a while - wonder why no one else has commented here recently?  ;D

Gold looking like a head and shoulders to me. Be short and be safe.  :wave
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Offline Manila Kop

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #86 on: January 20, 2009, 01:13:01 pm »
DB, do you watch any other commodities out of curiousity?
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Lolzies. More chance of a wank off the pope than beating United, I'm afraid. It is beyond Benitez, apart from when they were at their lowest ebb, when we knocked them out of the FA Cup. They certainly aren't anywhere near there now.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #87 on: January 20, 2009, 01:16:22 pm »
DB, do you watch any other commodities out of curiousity?

Yes, you have one in mind?
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Offline Manila Kop

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #88 on: January 20, 2009, 01:17:12 pm »
Yes, you have one in mind?

Nickel and copper if you don't mind?  :)
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Lolzies. More chance of a wank off the pope than beating United, I'm afraid. It is beyond Benitez, apart from when they were at their lowest ebb, when we knocked them out of the FA Cup. They certainly aren't anywhere near there now.

Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #89 on: January 20, 2009, 01:57:59 pm »
Nickel and copper if you don't mind?  :)

Both screwed if you ask me - the one that will turn around sooner than others is zinc - not much capacity there with big mines running out and no new projects on the horizon on global terms. If I were playing any of the base metals it would be zinc.

Nickel is fucked because there have been substitutes found in terms of its main use, which is in making steel, and there is excess capacity in terms of mining it. As for copper - huge amounts around and being mined. In terms of supply and demand it was China and India that were sucking up the amounts around and those economies are in the tank, as is everything else.

Though as I said the whole base metal situation is not a good one to be playing at the mo. on the long side. Nothing is really - the only thing I can see as being a good trade at the mo. is gold, and that is being short of it. I think gold will go down heavily from here - I reckon to around $200 an ounce within 15 months, which is around 80% reduction.

Big money to be made short of gold if you ask me, but don't take my advice I'm not a financial advisor etc etc.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2009, 02:07:41 pm by Dread Breath »
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Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #90 on: January 20, 2009, 02:11:18 pm »
Sorry, should add that zinc is very much a long term play. Very long term in terms of the base metals.
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Offline Manila Kop

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #91 on: January 20, 2009, 02:35:04 pm »
Aye, cheers for that DB!
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Lolzies. More chance of a wank off the pope than beating United, I'm afraid. It is beyond Benitez, apart from when they were at their lowest ebb, when we knocked them out of the FA Cup. They certainly aren't anywhere near there now.

Offline El Campeador

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #92 on: January 20, 2009, 04:02:21 pm »
....back to this thread after a while - wonder why no one else has commented here recently?  ;D

Gold looking like a head and shoulders to me. Be short and be safe.  :wave

Tis the season to sell covered calls, slightly out of the money, preferably when the DJ is around the 9k range.

Offline Paul_h

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #93 on: January 26, 2009, 04:09:45 pm »
Barclays up 70% today  :o

Offline ttnbd

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #94 on: January 26, 2009, 05:51:57 pm »
Barclays up 70% today  :o

still makes them about 50% below the high for 2009 and £7 per share down on historic highs.
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Offline Bullan

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #95 on: January 26, 2009, 10:43:59 pm »
Barclays up 70% today  :o

Sod bank shares, buy shares in teargas makers, if the riots in Iceland are any indication, there will be blood on the streets in many countries.
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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #96 on: January 26, 2009, 10:54:58 pm »
Sod bank shares, buy shares in teargas makers, if the riots in Iceland are any indication, there will be blood on the streets in many countries.


The richest person in South Korea used to be a woman who's only business was making tear gas (back in the 80's/90's when riots were commonplace there).  Her product was so strong, she ended up with a huge export market as well!

Offline El Campeador

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #97 on: January 26, 2009, 11:39:09 pm »
I'm going long paper and ink.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #98 on: January 26, 2009, 11:59:36 pm »
Had in RBS and HSBC.

Good time to buy in RBS, can't seem them being nationalised to be honest.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #99 on: February 13, 2009, 02:46:28 am »
That was a serious pop at the end of today (Thursday). Did anyone else see it? After touching below 7700, the Dow powered up in the last hour from the LOD to the HOD at ~7930.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #100 on: February 13, 2009, 08:23:06 am »
That was a serious pop at the end of today (Thursday). Did anyone else see it? After touching below 7700, the Dow powered up in the last hour from the LOD to the HOD at ~7930.

US markets are trading in a range, the range was violated to the downside yesterday, but the low of the year held and we had a bounceback rally, back into the range......nothing unusual other than the ferocity of the rally!

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #101 on: February 13, 2009, 01:41:59 pm »
US markets are trading in a range, the range was violated to the downside yesterday, but the low of the year held and we had a bounceback rally, back into the range......nothing unusual other than the ferocity of the rally!

This market says one thing to me: Japan. Don't have to give the dates for those that know what I'm talking about.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #102 on: February 13, 2009, 02:01:45 pm »
This market says one thing to me: Japan. Don't have to give the dates for those that know what I'm talking about.

DB, as we've discussed before, the charts do look similar, but IMO, the US is addressing the issue, albeit a little too late to save the economy in the short run, which Japan never did.  In addition, the US attracts foreign capital in a way Japan never has.  I think the charts will look quite different as we move forward.

Offline El Campeador

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #103 on: February 14, 2009, 10:25:29 pm »
DB, as we've discussed before, the charts do look similar, but IMO, the US is addressing the issue, albeit a little too late to save the economy in the short run, which Japan never did.  In addition, the US attracts foreign capital in a way Japan never has.  I think the charts will look quite different as we move forward.

Do you feel as though the issue is being addressed effectively? It seemed to me (and the markets) that Geithner was a schoolboy with an incomplete mid term paper. Tossing a few hundred bucks to the poorest doesn't seem to be the tonic out of this mess - another hit off the pipe if you like.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #104 on: February 14, 2009, 11:20:56 pm »
Do you feel as though the issue is being addressed effectively? It seemed to me (and the markets) that Geithner was a schoolboy with an incomplete mid term paper. Tossing a few hundred bucks to the poorest doesn't seem to be the tonic out of this mess - another hit off the pipe if you like.

Geithner is a disaster, can't believe he got the job as he was at the table in all of the meetings/decisions under the previous administration as the Head of the NY Fed, probably the key "influencer" role in the past.

Seems to be able to skate his way through all of the disasters that happened on his watch, so many leaks of information in the past few weeks that set the market up in a positive manner, then an extremely poor presentation, completely lacking in detail, that's resulted in the markets being trashed again.

He's a "politician" not an "administrator/policy maker", which is what is sorely needed.

Offline El Campeador

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #105 on: February 19, 2009, 11:05:30 pm »
Nasty close again today. Serial dumping taking place late every day. If it hangs around these levels much longer, it may just fall through 7500 comprehensively, and if it does, I have no idea what the next support level would be.

Options expiration tomorrow. Hold on to your hats!

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #106 on: February 19, 2009, 11:31:15 pm »
Nasty close again today. Serial dumping taking place late every day. If it hangs around these levels much longer, it may just fall through 7500 comprehensively, and if it does, I have no idea what the next support level would be.

Options expiration tomorrow. Hold on to your hats!

Most investors have had a longtime love affair with the Dow Jones Industrials. Why? Beats me. After all, it's just 30 stocks, and it's a list that gets modified every once in a while. Typically the list gets revised to better reflect the changing economy (that's code for "go up more").

From my perspective, closing levels especially in the Dow mean very little, unless of course they mark the bottoms of downside gaps or the tops of upside gaps. Otherwise, I haven't found them to be of any interest or usefulness, despite the obsession the media has with them.

Instead, for me, it's all about intraday highs and lows, and the intraday low in the Dow is at the 7449 level. That's the level I'm watching.  I am hoping it breaks. Not because I am bearish; to the contrary, because I am becoming increasingly bullish, and one missing ingredient from my perspective is the break by this widely watched index of its Nov. 21 multiyear lows. If it breaks, it could be headed for its October 2002 lows at the 7200 level. Maybe that will do it for a while.

Such a break -- when it inevitably occurs -- will at least initially be accompanied by a host of momentum divergences, as the number of new lows will be nowhere near readings seen at the October or November lows, and oscillator readings likely won't be nearly as oversold. In addition, I expect to see a bunch of inter-market non-confirmations, as the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) and S&P (cash and futures) and Russell 2000 will be nowhere near their comparable November lows.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #107 on: February 20, 2009, 06:46:10 pm »
Most investors have had a longtime love affair with the Dow Jones Industrials. Why? Beats me. After all, it's just 30 stocks, and it's a list that gets modified every once in a while. Typically the list gets revised to better reflect the changing economy (that's code for "go up more").

Because it's a one-stop look for overall market performance. Most stocks follow the major indexes. I could have easily said the S&P, point being, both are close to their November lows.

From my perspective, closing levels especially in the Dow mean very little, unless of course they mark the bottoms of downside gaps or the tops of upside gaps. Otherwise, I haven't found them to be of any interest or usefulness, despite the obsession the media has with them.

That's you - and you're much more refined than your average investor, and the media talking heads. Your average media pundit won't talk about the marking of tops of upside gaps.

Instead, for me, it's all about intraday highs and lows, and the intraday low in the Dow is at the 7449 level. That's the level I'm watching.  I am hoping it breaks. Not because I am bearish; to the contrary, because I am becoming increasingly bullish, and one missing ingredient from my perspective is the break by this widely watched index of its Nov. 21 multiyear lows. If it breaks, it could be headed for its October 2002 lows at the 7200 level. Maybe that will do it for a while.

You've got your wish ;) A new intraday low of about 7258. Looks like a new short term bottom, judging by the bounce immediately following. But there's still some wild Friday action to come - 2 long hours of trading to go.

Good luck, and thanks for the input.

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #108 on: February 20, 2009, 07:06:02 pm »
Because it's a one-stop look for overall market performance. Most stocks follow the major indexes. I could have easily said the S&P, point being, both are close to their November lows.

That's you - and you're much more refined than your average investor, and the media talking heads. Your average media pundit won't talk about the marking of tops of upside gaps.

You've got your wish ;) A new intraday low of about 7258. Looks like a new short term bottom, judging by the bounce immediately following. But there's still some wild Friday action to come - 2 long hours of trading to go.

Good luck, and thanks for the input.

El C, that was my point about non-confirmations....only the Dow has broken.  IMHO, the S&P should be one's main focus, with the QQQQ's and the Russell 200 as secondary points of reference. 

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #109 on: February 23, 2009, 11:43:41 pm »
El C, that was my point about non-confirmations....only the Dow has broken.  IMHO, the S&P should be one's main focus, with the QQQQ's and the Russell 200 as secondary points of reference. 

Well, there ya go then on the S&P. What now?

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #110 on: February 24, 2009, 10:29:47 am »
Well, there ya go then on the S&P. What now?

S&P still hasn't broke the year lows, (close though, but this is what happens) nice little summary follows:

'Weekend efforts to detail bank rescue plans failed to alleviate market fears, although the
positive opening on Monday led a few analysts to declare the oversold rally was underway.
However, sellers stepped in immediately and ate up the early bid, sending the major indices
through Friday’s lows. Tech led the downside, with the Nasdaq 100 breaking the lows more
than two hours ahead of the S&P 500.
 
Selling pressure paused at midafternoon for an Obama speech and then picked up steam
following a news report that American International Group (AIG) is running out of money.
The S&P 500 reached within one point of its November low at 741 in the final hour but refused
to reach that level before the closing bell, averting the next phase of the testing process.
Guess we’ll have to wait for Tuesday. 
 
To sum up, most indices are testing their November lows, but still haven’t broken them. The
Dow Jones Industrial Average and Transports are two notable exceptions. It’s possible for
the stronger indices to print double bottoms but I wouldn’t bet the store on it. In any case,
support at the monthly lows is a big deal that lowers reward potential of short opportunities
because the pattern favors at least one major bounce/squeeze.
 
Agricultural stocks got hit with heavy selling pressure after holding up relatively well over the
last few weeks. You get the sense the decline was triggered by a growing realization that
China growth won’t be bailing out the rest of the world economy in the next one or two years.
Of course, this isn’t a surprise to us but it’s been a key talking point for bullish analysts in the
last few weeks. 
 
I’ve been chatting with Elliott Wave aficionados about the odds for a continuation gap that
marks the middle of the 3rd wave (second selloff) in the 5th wave (third selloff) of the decline
from the October 2007 S&P 500 high at 1576. It’s a real possibility, but I see enough positive
volume divergences down here to keep myself from boldly making that prediction. 
 
If it does happen, we should get an early warning signal when a well-placed gap, like a big
hole through S&P 500 support, doesn’t fill quickly. More likely, any gap down will turn out to be
a bear trap because that’s the way the market likes to roll in 2009. Besides, we’re trading in
extremely oversold territory. It’s like dry tinder in a dry forest where no one has a match. Any
small piece of good news could trigger a major melt-up, especially with end-of-month markup
pressure just ahead.'

Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #111 on: February 24, 2009, 10:38:25 am »
Reckon the double top is now in play for gold. Can't really see how it can go any higher with all of the deflationary pressures around.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #112 on: February 24, 2009, 10:41:44 am »
Another one, from someone who I consider to be about the best market technician in the world:

'I really do not tend to lean bullishly. My bias, more often than not, tends to be bearish. I
can cite you a gazillion reasons why I should be bearish now, beginning with the Utilities
that are breaking down.
 
But instead I want to list a bunch of short term indicators I follow that continue to call for
a rally at midweek this week. Here is my list:
 
1)The Bank Index again outperformed the S&P 500.
 
2) The S&P 500 has now made a lower low on a closing basis and the cumulative
advance/decline line has made a higher low. 
 
3) The number of stocks making new lows was less today than Friday and many fewer
less than the November and October lows.
 
4) The McClellan Summation Index is negative -- however a net differential of plus-
6,200 advancers minus decliners would turn it up. Typically, a reading over plus-5,000
means the market is short-term oversold.
 
5) My Oscillator will be maximum oversold Wednesday.
 
6) Up volume as a percentage of total volume (30-day moving average) is 41%. Upper
30s to low 40s is where the market usually rallies from.
 
7) The put/call ratio, while not extreme, at least remains high.

8) NBC Nightly News is beginning a new series tonight with Brian Williams, Meltdown:
Making sense of it all. I call that front-page news.
 
9) They finally sold their winners today: Agriculture and tech, for example.   
 
10) The Market Volatility Index (VIX) is almost jumpy. One more day or two would do it.
 
11) Despite the ugly market today, folks did not rush into gold, they did not rush into
UltraShort Financials ProShares (SKF), they did not rush into UltraShort Real Estate
ProShares (SRS), and, most importantly, they did not rush into U.S. Treasuries.   
 
I think the market’s ready for an oversold rally, but I have been writing about these
indicators for several days now and each day the list gets a smidge longer. My preference
would be a nice whoosh down tomorrow morning that gives you the opportunity to buy. 
The market does not always accommodate your preferences though.
 
One final thought: I have gone all the way back to the highs of the market in 2007 and I
can only find one other time that the S&P 500 was down this many days in a row (it’s at six
now) and that was that awful decline leading to that mid-October low where there were
eight straight days. You can see it’s rare to go down so many days in a row. I grant you
that mid-October low wasn’t a great low, but a great oversold rally did result from it.'


I suspect that we'll open weak today, break the low's in the first half hour which will trigger a load of stops which are placed around 735-740 on the S&P, then reverse sharply fueled by short covering.  If we break 740 decisively, then we're looking at low to mid 600's before we see substantial support.

Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #113 on: February 24, 2009, 10:42:32 am »
Reckon the double top is now in play for gold. Can't really see how it can go any higher with all of the deflationary pressures around.

Have to agree DB, but it's strength continues to surprise.

Offline Dread Breath

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #114 on: February 24, 2009, 10:47:20 am »
Have to agree DB, but it's strength continues to surprise.

Probably proves that there is a LOT of money sitting on the sidelines looking for something to move into.....I like the post you've placed above - haven't really assessed the markets in some months but a post like that gives one food for thought.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #115 on: February 24, 2009, 10:52:20 am »
As a further note, I put $250,000 into long financials (UYG) and long S&P (SSO) at 3:59 yesterday.

I only trade my own money, so supporting my words with actions ;D

It's a pretty good odds trade, as my downside risk is low (in the sense that I'll know right away if I'm wrong), while the short term upside is high.

IE for UYG, I bought it at $2.02, if it goes below $1.90 I'll exit, but I expect $2.50-$2.75 on the upside, and if it goes up it'll get there in 2-5 trading days (given the volatility these days, it'll probably only take 1 day!).  So in summary it's a 5:1 reward:risk trade, real nice.

Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #116 on: February 24, 2009, 10:59:51 am »
Probably proves that there is a LOT of money sitting on the sidelines looking for something to move into.....I like the post you've placed above - haven't really assessed the markets in some months but a post like that gives one food for thought.

It's not saying we're out of the woods, just that there's a nice upside pop about to happen. 

In the mid-term, IMO it's all about the financials.  If the US administration could present a coherent, detailed plan of action, we'll see our way back to 900 in short order.  If they continue the way they've been going, we'll be at low 600's.

Offline El Campeador

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #117 on: February 24, 2009, 02:58:45 pm »
As a further note, I put $250,000 into long financials (UYG) and long S&P (SSO) at 3:59 yesterday.

I only trade my own money, so supporting my words with actions ;D

It's a pretty good odds trade, as my downside risk is low (in the sense that I'll know right away if I'm wrong), while the short term upside is high.

IE for UYG, I bought it at $2.02, if it goes below $1.90 I'll exit, but I expect $2.50-$2.75 on the upside, and if it goes up it'll get there in 2-5 trading days (given the volatility these days, it'll probably only take 1 day!).  So in summary it's a 5:1 reward:risk trade, real nice.

I took a bigger punt - short the FAZ (triple short financials) at around $82. Short the short? Gotta love trading :lmao

Good luck.

Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #118 on: February 24, 2009, 03:01:39 pm »
I took a bigger punt - short the FAZ (triple short financials) at around $82. Short the short? Gotta love trading :lmao

Good luck.

I know, and these double/triples levered products are toxic for the market, but as long as they are available, I'll use 'em.

Offline JP-65

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Re: The RAWK Investment/Trading Thread
« Reply #119 on: February 24, 2009, 03:03:47 pm »
Gap up opening was the last thing I wanted to see today, gap down or mill around flat would be way more preferable.

We'll see this faded now.....