Author Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19  (Read 237349 times)

Offline RooiBefok

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #80 on: August 28, 2018, 09:23:50 am »
APLT Full Table : Matchweek 3
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Offline RooiBefok

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #81 on: August 28, 2018, 09:24:35 am »
APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 3
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Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #82 on: August 28, 2018, 11:33:47 am »
How accurate is this? It has Man United at a <1% chance to win the league and a 1% chance to get relegated.  ;D
It’s based on form and fixtures and swings around a lot, I’d just use it for fun I think and to keep grounded.  But there’s usually a point where one club swings up quickly to an 80+% chance of winning the league (early last year for City, really late for Juventus) and that’s always right as far as I can tell.

Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #83 on: August 28, 2018, 11:35:32 am »

Any chance you could cut the y-axis off at -5 for now?  I think it would improve the aesthetics considerably.

Offline JP-65

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #84 on: August 28, 2018, 11:54:28 am »
It’s based on form and fixtures and swings around a lot, I’d just use it for fun I think and to keep grounded.  But there’s usually a point where one club swings up quickly to an 80+% chance of winning the league (early last year for City, really late for Juventus) and that’s always right as far as I can tell.

United have to do 2.5 ppg for the rest of the season to get to 90 (which is what we've used as the target for title winning form).....their title chances are already sunk  ;D

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #85 on: August 28, 2018, 08:20:38 pm »
We need to write a song for the sekksi graffs!
Cruyff: "Victory is not enough, there also needs to be beautiful football."

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #86 on: August 28, 2018, 09:03:47 pm »
Any chance you could cut the y-axis off at -5 for now?  I think it would improve the aesthetics considerably.

Have Spurs ever achieved +4?

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #87 on: August 28, 2018, 09:51:23 pm »
Cardiff are above Man United  :lickin

Offline stevieheighway

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #88 on: August 29, 2018, 01:31:33 am »
We need to write a song for the sekksi graffs!

Ahem

Profs bringin sekksi graphs (yeah)
Some posters don't know how to act (yeah)
They try to diss Profs maths (yeah)
APLT is the inside track (yeah)
Profs bringin sekksi graphs (yeah)

**mic drop
I'm really looking forward to the future. People can say it's going to be grim if they want but i'm a Liverpool fan...and I don't fucking believe them.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #89 on: August 29, 2018, 04:12:20 am »
Ahem

That was my inspiration, but that’s a song for Prof, who most certainly deserves it. But I meant something with the participating teams.
Cruyff: "Victory is not enough, there also needs to be beautiful football."

Offline BrandoLFC

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #90 on: August 29, 2018, 06:03:02 am »
How accurate is this? It has Man United at a <1% chance to win the league and a 1% chance to get relegated.  ;D

It's all about probability.  There's links there to explain their methodology.  Basically in 1% of all the scenarios they run based on their methods ManU is actually relegated based on the outcome of the first 3 games of the season.  So it's a 1 in a million shot basically but there is a chance.


Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #91 on: August 29, 2018, 10:07:23 am »
1% so I guess you mean 1 in a 100 chance which is way better than 1 in a million  :P

Offline RooiBefok

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #92 on: August 29, 2018, 02:42:55 pm »
Have Spurs ever achieved +4?
The only time Spurs have ever been in a Par + situation prior to this season was in the first two fixtures of the 2014/15 season when they achieved +2.
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Offline Always_A_Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #93 on: August 29, 2018, 08:29:36 pm »
Is there a reason why I cannot view the chart POP? I can only see a small black 'x' where the image should be. It's the same on both IE and Chrome.
We’ll still finish in top four - and they won’t. You can quote me on this in May.

Offline Iska

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #94 on: August 30, 2018, 11:29:52 am »
Is there a reason why I cannot view the chart POP? I can only see a small black 'x' where the image should be. It's the same on both IE and Chrome.
I sometimes get that, I think it must be to do with how your phone/computer treats imgur.  In my case, when I visit the imgur link directly the image shows in the thread afterwards.  No idea why that is though.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #95 on: September 1, 2018, 02:36:51 pm »
Is that us on plus 4 now ?

Offline Kenny19

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #96 on: September 1, 2018, 02:44:44 pm »
Is that us on plus 4 now ?
. Yes  ;D ;D happy days

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #97 on: September 1, 2018, 04:16:11 pm »
Fuck the Daily Mail.
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #98 on: September 1, 2018, 06:15:13 pm »
Great to go +4, shows how difficult the early season schedule has been relatively. And we have them coming with 2 par 1 games in the next 3 games as well.

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #99 on: September 2, 2018, 06:16:30 pm »
Spurs down to +2.
You try me once you beg for more.

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #100 on: September 2, 2018, 06:34:43 pm »
Spurs down to +2.
Isn't it plus 1 as it was a par 3

Offline KurtVerbose

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #101 on: September 2, 2018, 06:57:32 pm »
Isn't it plus 1 as it was a par 3

....er....yes, I was waiting for someone to spot that. :whistlingsmilie
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Offline scalatore

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #102 on: September 2, 2018, 08:07:53 pm »
So I think we're at:
  • Liverpool +4
  • Chelsea +2
  • Tottenham +1
  • Manchester City 0
  • Arsenal -4
  • Manchester United -4
Nice. Have we ever been on +4 before? I don't remember seeing it.

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #103 on: September 2, 2018, 08:16:11 pm »
Burnley and West Ham, and possibly Newcastle and Palace have already wrecked this year's APLT!

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #104 on: September 2, 2018, 10:10:21 pm »
Looking very good so far. Big chance to extend our lead further against Spurs as well.
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Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #105 on: September 2, 2018, 10:11:46 pm »



Offline Always_A_Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #106 on: September 2, 2018, 10:24:27 pm »
I sometimes get that, I think it must be to do with how your phone/computer treats imgur.  In my case, when I visit the imgur link directly the image shows in the thread afterwards.  No idea why that is though.

This has worked - like you though, no idea why that is! Thanks mate.

Looking forward to seeing the graph with +4  :D

 
We’ll still finish in top four - and they won’t. You can quote me on this in May.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #107 on: September 2, 2018, 10:37:47 pm »
This has worked - like you though, no idea why that is! Thanks mate.

Looking forward to seeing the graph with +4  :D
Look at the post directly above your one  ;D

Offline drmick

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #108 on: September 2, 2018, 11:05:02 pm »
Do you remember the season after Leicester won the league and we were having the Leicester are shit vs Everton are shit debate?

The same dynamic also applies to that midtable cohort, where a relegation race team acquire midtable status and vice versa.

I wonder if when we reach the halfway point could we QC test the APLT by swapping those teams around for a one off APLT test. So for example- we relegate West Ham and Burnley to par 3 permanence and promote the likes of Watford to par 1 for the away fixture. Then run the graph again and see if there is much difference.

Given that the swap would only apply to a few teams I doubt it would- but it would make losing to Watford appear not too bad haha!

Offline Always_A_Red

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #109 on: September 2, 2018, 11:09:10 pm »
Look at the post directly above your one  ;D

Haha! Get in! How did I not see that?! ;D

We’ll still finish in top four - and they won’t. You can quote me on this in May.

Offline Prof

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #110 on: September 2, 2018, 11:54:41 pm »
Do you remember the season after Leicester won the league and we were having the Leicester are shit vs Everton are shit debate?

The same dynamic also applies to that midtable cohort, where a relegation race team acquire midtable status and vice versa.

I wonder if when we reach the halfway point could we QC test the APLT by swapping those teams around for a one off APLT test. So for example- we relegate West Ham and Burnley to par 3 permanence and promote the likes of Watford to par 1 for the away fixture. Then run the graph again and see if there is much difference.

Given that the swap would only apply to a few teams I doubt it would- but it would make losing to Watford appear not too bad haha!
I've actually been thinking of raising the par to 100.  This would involve making 5 more away matches par 3s.  Only the top 8 would remain par 1s away (7 matches).

Offline Paul1611

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #111 on: September 3, 2018, 08:37:34 am »
Prof - this is fascinating and one of the best threads on here and has been for the last few seasons - great job!  :)

Just an idea, could you base the starting league position for all teams on an average of the last 5 years or even 10 years positions, then you might get a more accurate picture of their 'actual' place in the league table rather than having to account for freak seasons like Leicesters, Burnleys or even maybe Watfords this year.

Offline RooiBefok

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #112 on: September 3, 2018, 09:30:36 am »
APLT Full Table : Matchweek 4
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline RooiBefok

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #113 on: September 3, 2018, 09:31:07 am »
APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 4
“The 5th Benitle fell in love with himself eighteen years ago and has remained faithful ever since”

Offline Cheshire_Cat

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #114 on: September 3, 2018, 10:46:40 am »
I've actually been thinking of raising the par to 100.  This would involve making 5 more away matches par 3s.  Only the top 8 would remain par 1s away (7 matches).

I don't think you need to change anything Prof. 90 points is the threshold to "guarantee" top spot, as no team has finished 2nd with that number of points (although it could change this season).

And although some teams muck up their own Par 1 / Par 3 status, it's still the same for all teams competing at the top of the table. So if Burnley are poor for the whole season, then they're poor for everyone, and visa versa for Watford.

The joy of the APLT is it's simplicity. Otherwise you're gonna need to look at isolated periods of form (how do you deal with Burnley being crap whilst they were in Europe, but hitting their stride once they go 1 game per week?), or some teams having a hex over others (like Chelsea over Spurs, until last season). It'll just get too messy.

In short ... I'm happy the way it is at the moment, and the way it's always been. It was a brilliant concept from the start. Thanks for all of your work on it, Prof.

Offline sms1986

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #115 on: September 3, 2018, 10:46:49 am »
Hope that red line stays well above the rest, I’m confident it will!

Offline Nessy76

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #116 on: September 3, 2018, 02:34:30 pm »
Do you remember the season after Leicester won the league and we were having the Leicester are shit vs Everton are shit debate?

The same dynamic also applies to that midtable cohort, where a relegation race team acquire midtable status and vice versa.

I wonder if when we reach the halfway point could we QC test the APLT by swapping those teams around for a one off APLT test. So for example- we relegate West Ham and Burnley to par 3 permanence and promote the likes of Watford to par 1 for the away fixture. Then run the graph again and see if there is much difference.

Given that the swap would only apply to a few teams I doubt it would- but it would make losing to Watford appear not too bad haha!

Season on season, there is very little movement of clubs in and out of Par 3 status. Typically one or two clubs at most. So it's a huge amount of work for little actual effect. The ideal would be to wait until the end of the season and do it all then, but by that point it is futile anyway.
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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #117 on: September 3, 2018, 03:13:45 pm »
\Loving it , keep up the ace work
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Offline Ycuzz

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #118 on: September 3, 2018, 04:10:25 pm »
@Yvanicuzz

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Re: The Alternative Premier League Table 2018-19
« Reply #119 on: September 3, 2018, 04:34:44 pm »
In short ... I'm happy the way it is at the moment, and the way it's always been. It was a brilliant concept from the start. Thanks for all of your work on it, Prof.

Fully agree.
Great concept, fantastic execution,  well presented.
My go to thread after a match!
Much appreciated Prof*  :wave

*edit, and Nessy!
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