Topic: Winning Title #19*

[phil236849]

Looks like Grealish will be out for Villa on the weekend

[kaesarsosei]

City have really only played 1 tough game. Spurs at home. They drew. West Ham away, Everton away and Wolves at home are relatively difficult games. They managed to smash West Ham and beat Everton comfortable. But they also managed to lose to Wolves.

City definitely have more games where they smash teams by more than 4 goals. But they don't cruise every game. They certainly don't when they play some of the better sides. Likewise I think people over estimate how close some of our games are. We've been the better team in every league game so far. We haven't been perfect for 90 minutes in every game but we've dominated most games for the majority of the time. Plus we've had much harder fixtures than City so far.

This is a good point and as others have said, City have a terrible fixture run in Jan/Feb to make up for it. I just hope they don't get through that the way they did last season when they won a lot of tough fixtures in a row, except for the fucking CL game at Spurs.

[KurtVerbose]

Maybe it's only considering the away games at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge as 1-par games for us, while the home matches were considered as ones that we should be winning. Still doesn't explain how City have had three 1-par matches.

Yes, it's this. Home fixtures you're expected to win so it looks like we've had the easier run on the APLT.

I like the APLT a lot, but our par 1's have been Chelsea and ManU, where as City's have been West Ham, Everton and Crystal Palace. Also, their toughest home game was Tottenham, which they drew, where as we've had Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham.

When you look at it like that it's hard to say we've had the easier fixtures.

[Jetmir M.]

The thing that concerns me is that we are having to dig deep in a lot of our wins whereas City despite being less consistent, have been able to coast in a lot of theirs.

If all our games are close we are more liable to bad luck or decisions. And it takes more emotional and physical energy out of the players. Yes we've clearly formed good mental habits but it can't last forever.

Even against Spurs, with their current form and league position we should be battering them. If that had been against Burnley we would have a lot of questionmarks after that result.

The other thing that concerns me is the MF. I would play Fabinho and Wijnaldum every game if fit, but Henderson's form is poor and he looks un-droppable to Klopp. I would like to see Milner used only as cover for the FBs as he is the second best FB on either side in our squad. I think Klopp needs to get Keita and/or AOC integrated into regular starting places in the league.

Sunday, August 17th:

Man Shitty vs. Spurs 2-2.

[Ocean Red]

Fabinho one booking away from a suspension. We will really need him against city at home. Even more so with Matip being out.

[demain]

Yes, it's this. Home fixtures you're expected to win so it looks like we've had the easier run on the APLT.

I like the APLT a lot, but our par 1's have been Chelsea and ManU, where as City's have been West Ham, Everton and Crystal Palace. Also, their toughest home game was Tottenham, which they drew, where as we've had Arsenal, Leicester and Tottenham.

When you look at it like that it's hard to say we've had the easier fixtures.

Cheers.

This suggests that the APLT scoring methodology needs to be tweaked: possibly on a rolling average basis, i.e. if City have won away at Everton over the last three seasons it shouldn't be considered a par 1. Or maybe this is already the case and I am not aware.

[Sharado]

Fortress Anfield:

Has any team ever won all their home league games? Not saying we will, certainly not saying we will this early in the season and before we play city, but just wondered if it had ever been done?

[Achilles Heel]

Has any team ever won all their home league games? Not saying we will, certainly not saying we will this early in the season and before we play city, but just wondered if it had ever been done?

In Premier League history best is W18 D1 L0 by Chelsea 05/06, United 10/11 and City 11/12.

[Davidbowie]

Our next CL game against Genk is on Tuesday and is at Anfield, whilst City travel to Italy to face Atalanta on the Wednesday night.

So basically we've got an extra days rest and no plane travelling as an advantage over them before the showdown on the Sunday. Hopefully Atalanta kick fuck out of them as well.

With these advantages plus being the home side, I just hope we can make it count against them.

[Sharado]

In Premier League history best is W18 D1 L0 by Chelsea 05/06, United 10/11 and City 11/12.

Fucking hell nearly then. One game at a time.

[mikeb58]

I am so excited about the City game at home, I am more nervous about the Everton and Utd games at home than this one.

Everton and Utd may be shite, but  the fear of losing to them (because of our genuine rivalry) fucks up the occasion for me.

City are our rivals in a points chase for the title, nothing more than that. No history, no comparison, no jealousy, not arsed about them in any way shape for form.

If we beat them, due to the context of the title race, it'll obviously be a massive 3 points . If we drop points, it'll be a big blow for the same reason....but I won't care any less about City than I did before the game. They simply don't interest me on any level to be arsed about.

Anyway, first things first, we must win at Villa to take a 6 point lead into the City game. It goes without saying City will rack up a cricket score against Southampton!

[the_red_pill]

I am so excited about the City game at home, I am more nervous about the Everton and Utd games at home than this one.

Everton and Utd may be shite, but  the fear of losing to them (because of our genuine rivalry) fucks up the occasion for me.

City are our rivals in a points chase for the title, nothing more than that. No history, no comparison, no jealousy, not arsed about them in any way shape for form.

If we beat them, due to the context of the title race, it'll obviously be a massive 3 points . If we drop points, it'll be a big blow for the same reason....but I won't care any less about City than I did before the game. They simply don't interest me on any level to be arsed about.

Anyway, first things first, we must win at Villa to take a 6 point lead into the City game. It goes without saying City will rack up a cricket score against Southampton!

With City it's just going to be business, but with the other two bastards.... they actually revel in our misfortune. Smalltime shits.
The Bitter Blues will see any sort of unfortunate thing in or about that match that befalls us, as a victory and a potential magnificent end to the season.

That's why the thought of facing them, is a bit sobering.

[DangerScouse]

Surprisingly City are favourites for the match. They are 13/10 whilst we are 19/10.

[JC the Messiah]

Surprisingly City are favourites for the match. They are 13/10 whilst we are 19/10.

Interesting, and like you say, surprising.

Then again, City were strong favourites to win the league before it started.  Not the case now - we're odds-on, they're evens.

[Davidbowie]

With City it's just going to be business, but with the other two bastards.... they actually revel in our misfortune. Smalltime shits.
The Bitter Blues will see any sort of unfortunate thing in or about that match that befalls us, as a victory and a potential magnificent end to the season.

That's why the thought of facing them, is a bit sobering.

I agree - however we definitely owe City one. We didn't manage to beat them at Anfield last season, then we were cheated in the game at the Etihad, Kompany's red card challenge on Salah going unpunished and Stones clearing off the line by millimetres..

Then there was the loss in the Community Shield in a game that only we looked like winning, Walker clearing another one off the line.

We are definitely due a win over them as we haven't had much go our way in the last few games against them.

[JCB]

Having read the last page I thought I'd post this here:





Barring our games against Southampton, Chelsea & Untied, the difference in xG seems to suggest that we are relatively ok in most games (I remember Beasley (BassTurnedtoRed) saying something about having an xGD of over 0.8 usually implies a win). And considering the Chelseas and Untied games were away you'd expect them to be tight.

In terms of our defence that Southampton game, seemed more of an exception than the rule, and if anything this has skewed the trend  line as a result. Our average xGA of 0.95 is lower than City's and considering the opponents we've faced relative to them it bodes well overall. 

Our attack however is up and down quite a lot and I guess that is due to the opposition, but we have to admit that the front 3 haven't been clicking consistently so far this season. I'm hoping that will improve but regardless, it's usually enough to see away most teams.

The thing that stands out in these 2 vizzes overall more than anything however is the level of opposition we have faced relative to them.

[Jookie]

It's so true this. I'm guilty of it - in the moment it's all so tense and unless there's 4 clear goals you always think the other team has a chance.

I'm not that tense about it all so far this season. Think winning a European Cup and getting 97 points helps to be honest.

Everyone at the club is doing their absolute maximum to give us a chance of winning titles. That goes from players giving everything on the pitch, to supporters providing encouragement all the way through to star players being retained on long term contracts and new acquisitions being made when necessary.

I can understand why people are getting tense during games but I can my relative serenity comes from confidence that the club are doing absolutely everything to pit us in a position to win things. I think that knowledge that we are good enough to get +95 points provides a huge amount of confidence in the team to get the job done on a match by match basis. If +95 points isn't enough then it's one of things rather than anyone's fault.

Given our relative success recently, I find it hard to fathom why there are people kicking off when team sheets are announced. Beyond ticketing/access issues/ARE/copyright, I find it hard for anyone to have any grievances about the club currently. Absolute trust in 99% of things that are going on at the club

[Scottymuser]

Cheers.

This suggests that the APLT scoring methodology needs to be tweaked: possibly on a rolling average basis, i.e. if City have won away at Everton over the last three seasons it shouldn't be considered a par 1. Or maybe this is already the case and I am not aware.

to be fair, the fact that West Ham and Everton away are par-1s is a joke, when Arsenal/Chelsea aren't even if we play them at home.  I far prefer a "strength of schedule" metric, weighted by home vs away, compare to the ALPT for judging how comparatively we have done compared to City.  Everton are *awful* and IMO it is the worst result of Klopp's career here (bar Maybe the Red Star away last year in the groups) when we only got a 0-0 - and this year they are even worse. 

[kaesarsosei]

Surprisingly City are favourites for the match. They are 13/10 whilst we are 19/10.

Is this for real? This seems insane to me. We are really almost 2/1 at home?

[Byrneand]

Is it true that we had a tougher schedule though? According to the APLT, we had two 1-par games (the tougher ones), City had three. Arsenal and Spurs had four each, only Chelsea had two, as much as us.

In the last two seasons City have dropped 30 points (not including 19/20). When you break that down, 11 of those points have come against teams in the "traditional big 6".

Non Big 6 = 2.66 points per game
Big 6 = 2.45 points per game.

And so big picture the APLT does a great job of capturing this (FYI 8 of the 11 points dropped were away from home).

The point I was trying to make was that I'm not sure if there's been a similar case where a team has played 6 top 6 teams (I appreciate I'm bending the rules here a little bit by including Leicester) in the space of 8 games (plus important CL knock outs). That's a truly brutal run.

There are plenty here who are way smarter than myself, but the gut says the chances of beating top opposition in a series of multiple games must go down. I'm sure its possible to back that up with stats.

IF they had a repeat of last year's schedule it would read:

Spurs (a)
West Ham (h)
Schalke (a)
Leicester (a)
Arsenal (h)
United (a)
Shalke (h)
Burnley (h)
Chelsea (a)
Liverpool (h)

For a split second, say we believed that City might get a difficult draw, as it stands "Shalke" could get replaced by: Real Madrid, Atletico/Juventus, Napoli, Inter/Dortmund, Zenit/Lyon, Ajax.

Just flagging its a really tough run. To think as well they've been dropping those points in the PL without getting a challenge mid-week in the CL.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Maybe it's only considering the away games at Old Trafford and Stamford Bridge as 1-par games for us, while the home matches were considered as ones that we should be winning. Still doesn't explain how City have had three 1-par matches.

I am not sure what it's considering mate, but it's abysmal in any case.

[PoetryInMotion]

I am not sure what it's considering mate, but it's abysmal in any case.

APLT has worked for years mate. It's simple and effective in terms of big picture. It doesn't actually talk about difficulty of fixtures. All it says is that points in Away games to the Top 13 sides can be dropped, while all Home games have to be won to hit par. It's a formula that several title winners have followed over the years. Last two seasons and possibly this season may skew things since 90 is no longer the target for title winners.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

APLT has worked for years mate. It's simple and effective in terms of big picture. It doesn't actually talk about difficulty of fixtures. All it says is that points in Away games to the Top 13 sides can be dropped, while all Home games have to be won to hit par. It's a formula that several title winners have followed over the years. Last two seasons and possibly this season may skew things since 90 is no longer the target for title winners.

I understand that, but in the context of difficulty of fixtures in this case it doesn't paint a proper picture. For instance playing the Bitters will always be more a difficult game for us than it is for the City for all the obvious reaasons, no matter how poor they are. Same with the Mancs.

[JC the Messiah]

I understand that, but in the context of difficulty of fixtures in this case it doesn't paint a proper picture. For instance playing the Bitters will always be more a difficult game for us than it is for the City for all the obvious reaasons, no matter how poor they are. Same with the Mancs.

But other fixtures will be relatively easier for us than another opponent.

It's more of a guide than a hard and fast determinant of who's going to win the league.

[Byrneand]

I understand that, but in the context of difficulty of fixtures in this case it doesn't paint a proper picture. For instance playing the Bitters will always be more a difficult game for us than it is for the City for all the obvious reaasons, no matter how poor they are. Same with the Mancs.

I think your Beef should be with the Bitters for being garbage for 36 games a season rather than the APLT

[deFacto please, you bastards]

I think your Beef should be with the Bitters for being garbage for 36 games a season rather than the APLT

That was just an example. Nothing the APLT shows changes my opinion on having a difficult run in considering who we have played and who City have played.

[Byrneand]

That was just an example. Nothing the APLT shows changes my opinion on having a difficult run in considering who we have played and who City have played.

Fantastic - Move on and enjoy the rest of the season by the sounds of it.

[deFacto please, you bastards]

Fantastic - Move on and enjoy the rest of the season by the sounds of it.

Who says I'm not enjoying the season? I'm explaining my opinion

[Cormack Snr]

We have played very well in some games but haven't  got out of second gear in others, the players are giving their all and are a tremendous credit. We have more confidence this season and have rode our luck in certain games while City are not quite up to last years form.
City have played only one so-called top team and drew at home although there are no easy games and we have played five and beat them all with an away draw at Utd. Keep going Mighty Red Men..

[SteveZissou]

I was looking at the fixtures again and I will tell you about another factor I'm happy about. It's the fact that we're playing Man City in April. Last year I was unhappy that during the crucial run when City were exhausted they were playing teams laying on the ground, I felt that if they played us we would've blown them away... as the fatigue factor didn't come into play when playing those teams... but if they played us then it would've... This season if we are fresh again (no long domestic Cup runs) then we could do them even if it's at the Etihad.

[PhaseOfPlay]

I was looking at the fixtures again and I will tell you about another factor I'm happy about. It's the fact that we're playing Man City in April. Last year I was unhappy that during the crucial run when City were exhausted they were playing teams laying on the ground, I felt that if they played us we would've blown them away... as the fatigue factor didn't come into play when playing those teams... but if they played us then it would've... This season if we are fresh again (no long domestic Cup runs) then we could do them even if it's at the Etihad.

There's a winter break, though. That changes the game in terms of season-long fitness.

[SteveZissou]

There's a winter break, though. That changes the game in terms of season-long fitness.

Yes, true but I'm not talking about that, I'm talking about fatigue with extra games including long Cup runs (League Cup, FA Cup and UCL)... if this happens again with Man City and we're just in 2 competitions, we will be fresher in the end. However if we go far in the League Cup and I'm also not sure of the affect of the World Club Cup yet, that (as well as the winter break you mentioned) could even things out toward the end of the season.

[redtel]

There's a winter break, though. That changes the game in terms of season-long fitness.

I still can't find details of which day we play during this winter break.
Norwich (a) on Feb 8th but no split yet on which teams play on Feb 8th/ Feb 15th.
Then we have West Ham (h) on Feb 22nd.

Also there is an FAC midweek round between 8-15th Feb if I have got it right?

Anybody got more info on this winter break.

[PoetryInMotion]

Having read the last page I thought I'd post this here:





Barring our games against Southampton, Chelsea & Untied, the difference in xG seems to suggest that we are relatively ok in most games (I remember Beasley (BassTurnedtoRed) saying something about having an xGD of over 0.8 usually implies a win). And considering the Chelseas and Untied games were away you'd expect them to be tight.

In terms of our defence that Southampton game, seemed more of an exception than the rule, and if anything this has skewed the trend  line as a result. Our average xGA of 0.95 is lower than City's and considering the opponents we've faced relative to them it bodes well overall. 

Our attack however is up and down quite a lot and I guess that is due to the opposition, but we have to admit that the front 3 haven't been clicking consistently so far this season. I'm hoping that will improve but regardless, it's usually enough to see away most teams.

The thing that stands out in these 2 vizzes overall more than anything however is the level of opposition we have faced relative to them.

Thanks mate. This is the kind of analysis that I have often wanted to see using xG, that's a constructive use of the stat.

[Achilles Heel]

I still can't find details of which day we play during this winter break.
Norwich (a) on Feb 8th but no split yet on which teams play on Feb 8th/ Feb 15th.
Then we have West Ham (h) on Feb 22nd.

Also there is an FAC midweek round between 8-15th Feb if I have got it right?

Anybody got more info on this winter break.

FA Cup 4th round is weekend 25 Jan
FA Cup 5th round is midweek around 4th March

If one of the PL matches rearranged to the 15th there is a full 2 week break from 1st Feb to 15th Feb. Strikes me this is the optimal one.

If one of the matches played on the 8th and not the 15th  there is a full 2 week break from 8th Feb to 22nd. However, Champions League R16 kicks-in and potentially reduces break. R16 1st legs are staggered over 2 weeks  on 18/19 Feb or 25/26 Feb. Presumably won't know which week Liverpool, City etc are playing until the CL draw is made on 16th December. Problem is that the winter break for someone could be as short as from 8th Feb to 18th Feb which only 10 days.

[redtel]

FA Cup 4th round is weekend 25 Jan
FA Cup 5th round is midweek around 4th March

If one of the PL matches rearranged to the 15th there is a full 2 week break from 1st Feb to 15th Feb. Strikes me this is the optimal one.



If one of the matches played on the 8th and not the 15th  there is a full 2 week break from 8th Feb to 22nd. However, Champions League R16 kicks-in and potentially reduces break. R16 1st legs are staggered over 2 weeks  on 18/19 Feb or 25/26 Feb. Presumably won't know which week Liverpool, City etc are playing until the CL draw is made on 16th December. Problem is that the winter break for someone could be as short as from 8th Feb to 18th Feb which only 10 days.

Thanks for that.

So, if CL teams playing on the 8th Feb were given the second CL date of 25/26th Feb it would give them a 14 day break. I doubt UEFA will give attention to the PL break though. We will see.

[SerbianScouser]

Recently this team reminds me so much of Fergie's Utd at their pomp it's incredible.

Not playing anywhere near our football but winning games in the most champions manner imaginable.

Don't know if we can actually do this the entire season (I truly hope we start playing to our fullest potential soon again) but it's so nice knowing that we can grind all these games out with complete disconnect between midfield and attack - City probably wish they had this kind of ability in the two games they lost this season.

If this team doesn't win the league soon it'll be by far the biggest travesty in history of football.

[Linudden]

A draw or worse today and City at home would've felt like a must-win as well as giving Leicester and Chelsea hope in the table. Hopefully a bit less tension for that one now.

[Phil M]

City have to win at Anfield to stop us.

[Perham]

Wins like this are the signs of champions. The problem is we've got another title winning material bunch of c*nts over in Manchester to beat.