Topic: Brexit: "Vultus inanis est et mori in fossa ego sum!"

[Red Beret]

But they'd need a majority and not two thirds, right?

I think it's two thirds for a GE.

[Robinred]

But they'd need a majority and not two thirds, right?

As I understand it, they need 2/3rds.

But the Government could pass another bill, effectively bypassing the FTPA (fixed term parliament act).

[kennedy81]

Assuming we get a extension till Jan then it's time to face realty, this has to be sorted by April to avoid massive complications, MPs know theres no majority for any deal. time to use any extension wisely, hold a referendum. remain and let Johnson fight a GE arguing for a no deal after the countries voted to remain.

how can there be another referendum? hasn't that possibility been voted down in the House already?

[Ray K]

If (when) the vote on a GE fails, can the government declare it has no confidence in itself to push one through?

That doesn't trigger an election. The Commons then has 14 days to come up with an alternative govt before an election can be called.

[No666]

Johnson believes he'll win an outright majority by promising to leave the EU by 31st October, extrapolating from Peston. But do the polls support that?

[Riquende]

1 Brexit Party

Hoey

For I moment I thought that was a thing I'd missed today. Believable.

[jillcwhomever]

Look at the names though, they could remove the whip from hem and half would be re-elected as independents..

It makes it worse and worse.  What an absurd strategy.  It’s so silly it almost purposefully so.

A lot of Brexiteers have never come across as that intelligent. The thing I don't get is Cummings role in this. We're told this guy is a genius, maybe he believed it too. Well its bitten him on the arse tonight.

[Zeb]

So it all comes down to getting the bill to take no deal off the table voted in before the vote to break the fixed parliament act?

Is that correct?

Don't think Johnson is going to table the bill to try and get around the FTPA if he's leaving a confidence vote to tomorrow. David Allen Green (FT's constitutional law commentator) reckons that it could be because someone has pointed out a new bill can be amended. May didn't legislate anything controversial or EU related for months for the same reason.

[Yosser0_0]

Leadsom talking shite now

What's new? 

[Kashinoda]

Johnson believes he'll win an outright majority by promising to leave the EU by 31st October, extrapolating from Peston. But do the polls support that?

I don't think the polls could reliably tell anyone anything right now.

[classycarra]

They may be Tories and I have very strong disagreements with them but they've just sacrificed their careers for the country.

Fair fucking play.

Well put.

Also, well in Corbyn for both not taking the bait and for leading with a defence of parliamentary democracy

[killer-heels]

A lot of Brexiteers have never come across as that intelligent. The thing I don't get is Cummings role in this. We're told this guy is a genius, maybe he believed it too. Well its bitten him on the arse tonight.

Said it before, Cumberbatch lied to us by playing him like he played an actual great like Turing. Lazy bastard.

[Elmo!]

Will the Scots Tory vote collapse as well?

It almost certainly will drop enough to lose almost all their seats. LAtest poll has SNP taking 52 out of 59 seats, with the Lib Dems getting almost all the rest of them. Labour will likely hold one seat.

[jillcwhomever]

Someone like Soames or Brine having the whip removed will be controversial. Some of them are clearly out on their arse like Grieve but Brine and Soames are highly liked and respected by nearly every Tory.

Hasn't Hammond's local party already re-selected him. How do the Tories go about this, do they move against their own local parties? They really would mean war.

[Zeb]

For I moment I thought that was a thing I'd missed today. Believable.

Think she was hinting very recently that she'd be standing at the next election for another party. Don't think it'll be too long to wait for it to happen.

[Red Beret]

As I understand it, they need 2/3rds.

But the Government could pass another bill, effectively bypassing the FTPA (fixed term parliament act).

With 21 rebels under threat of deselection this government isn't passing anything.

[oldfordie]

how can there be another referendum? hasn't that possibility been voted down in the House already?

I don't know how it will be achieved. I know they managed to vote on Mays deal at least 3 times.maybe some way around it but am no expert.

[Elmo!]

As I understand it, they need 2/3rds.

But the Government could pass another bill, effectively bypassing the FTPA (fixed term parliament act).

That would need to go through the Lords though I think.

[stjohns]

Forgive me for being crass in a democracy but It would be nice if someone could get hold of that c*nt who keeps shouting when the beeb are trying to interview people on parliament green. Wouldn’t be so bad if you could actually hear what the fuck he was saying.

[John C]

If a GE is somehow forced Labour's absolute Ace card would be to switch leaders to Yvette Cooper. Suck on that huge, huge election defeat Boris 

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Kuensberg reckons the rebel’s are gone

[jillcwhomever]

Tory rebels given second chance to prove loyalty tomorrow before losing whip, says Leadsom

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has signalled that the Tory rebels will not have the whip removed immediately. In an interview with BBC, she said that she hoped that the MPs who voted against the government would “reconsider overnight” and decide to vote with the government to defeat the bill tomorrow. Asked if they would lose the whip immediately, she said they wouldn’t. They would get a second chance, she said.

[TepidT2O]

[Currywurst]

If a GE is somehow forced Labour's absolute Ace card would be to switch leaders to Yvette Cooper. Suck on that huge, huge election defeat Boris 

You've just put my innermost fantasy into words!

[dirks digglers]

Johnson believes he'll win an outright majority by promising to leave the EU by 31st October, extrapolating from Peston. But do the polls support that?

Worryingly this could actually happen. It’d be close at the very least. Think the main bbc poll guy earlier thought Johnson could get the 326(?) based on current polling.

[Zeb]

That would need to go through the Lords though I think.

It would. And it would get amended to fuckery and back by an opposition with a majority of 20 odd. It's like throwing a boomerang into a slurry pit. Even if it comes back, you wouldn't want anything to do with it.

[jillcwhomever]

Former Liberal Democrats leader Tim Farron tweeted: “It’s in the obvious interests of the Liberal Democrats to vote for a general election now... but to do so would lead to Britain dropping out with no deal and waste 6 of the next vital 8 weeks, so we will put the country first.”

[Red Beret]

Tory rebels given second chance to prove loyalty tomorrow before losing whip, says Leadsom

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has signalled that the Tory rebels will not have the whip removed immediately. In an interview with BBC, she said that she hoped that the MPs who voted against the government would “reconsider overnight” and decide to vote with the government to defeat the bill tomorrow. Asked if they would lose the whip immediately, she said they wouldn’t. They would get a second chance, she said.

"You crossed the line! Now don't cross this line! Okay, well definitely don't cross this one! STOP CROSSING THE LINES!!"

[Statto Red]

PM's new proposed election date is 15 October
After criticism that the originally proposed date of 14 October would exclude religious Jews, because of a clash with the festival of Succot, the government has made a change.

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg says that if enough MPs back the motion for a general election, it will now be held a day later, on 15 October.

[Kashinoda]

Can someone explain to me the consequence of being de-selected and losing the whip?

[Yosser0_0]

They may be Tories and I have very strong disagreements with them but they've just sacrificed their careers for the country.

Fair fucking play.

They are fed up with being bullied by a same gang of thunderklunts. Might be the start of the tory's being able to cleanse their party of the far right loons.

[redmark]

Look at the names though, they could remove the whip from hem and half would be re-elected as independents..

It makes it worse and worse.  What an absurd strategy.  It’s so silly it almost purposefully so.

Hammond's constituency party has already declared him their candidate. Removing the whip from MPs is one thing, but Johnson may reach a point where he has to suspend constituency parties - and then have no local organisation for any 'official' candidate.

Soames won't stand in the next election. Clarke says he may struggle to vote Conservative.

[jillcwhomever]

Can someone explain to me the consequence of being de-selected and losing the whip?

It means they cannot represent the Tory party, but they can stand as Independents.

[redmark]

Can someone explain to me the consequence of being de-selected and losing the whip?

Cannot be the party candidate in a coming election. Hammond (for one) is going to challenge that.

[oldfordie]

Tory rebels given second chance to prove loyalty tomorrow before losing whip, says Leadsom

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has signalled that the Tory rebels will not have the whip removed immediately. In an interview with BBC, she said that she hoped that the MPs who voted against the government would “reconsider overnight” and decide to vote with the government to defeat the bill tomorrow. Asked if they would lose the whip immediately, she said they wouldn’t. They would get a second chance, she said.

Johnson gives Tory rebels a extension.

[Snail]

Tory rebels given second chance to prove loyalty tomorrow before losing whip, says Leadsom

Andrea Leadsom, the business secretary, has signalled that the Tory rebels will not have the whip removed immediately. In an interview with BBC, she said that she hoped that the MPs who voted against the government would “reconsider overnight” and decide to vote with the government to defeat the bill tomorrow. Asked if they would lose the whip immediately, she said they wouldn’t. They would get a second chance, she said.

I hope that doesn’t affect anything tomorrow.

[Walshy nMe®]

I don’t want to sound thick, but could someone please explain like I’m 5, exactly what’s happened?

From my understanding as of tomorrow MP’s can propose a bill to take no deal off the table for good, and the government have no way of stopping it if this is voted in?

[TheShanklyGates]

Surely it's in Labour's best interests tactically to not back an election until an extension from the EU has been confirmed?

Passing the bill tomorrow is pointless if there's going to be an election before the 31st of October.

[Iska]

Johnson believes he'll win an outright majority by promising to leave the EU by 31st October, extrapolating from Peston. But do the polls support that?

Those polls are all academic now we’ve just seen the most incompetent government display in our lifetimes.  It’s the next poll that will be interesting.

If a GE is somehow forced Labour's absolute Ace card would be to switch leaders to Yvette Cooper. Suck on that huge, huge election defeat Boris 

Yup, that would change everything.  But sadly ...

[The North Bank]

Respect to those who put the country ahead of their careers. Not an easy decision to make.

Boris is turning out to be quite a little dictator, far more dangerous than the mumbling buffoon of the last few months.