Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2017-18

[Prof]

[killer-heels]

Ouch.

[BabuYagu]

Relegation APLT: Week 9

ok, as the season progresses I'll drop and include teams based on whether they cross the 0 point line (and as long as it doesn't get too cluttered). This week I've taken out Brighton (rose to +1) and have included Stoke instead. Swansea, Everton and West Ham don't look good either. They aren't picking up points but their lines aren't as harsh simply because of the games they have had rather than results.

Brilliant addition to the thread mate, I like it. My two questions would be this:-
1. What is the biggest number of points in the Premier League era a side has been relegated with? Would this be better than the 48 point line for reducing the clutter?
2. Looking purely at the graph, who would you be most worried about?

The answer to #2 for me is Palace, Swansea & West Brom. They both look the sides heading in just one direction (although Palace had one good result recently).

[killer-heels]

Brilliant addition to the thread mate, I like it. My two questions would be this:-
1. What is the biggest number of points in the Premier League era a side has been relegated with? Would this be better than the 48 point line for reducing the clutter?
2. Looking purely at the graph, who would you be most worried about?

The answer to #2 for me is Palace, Swansea & West Brom. They both look the sides heading in just one direction (although Palace had one good result recently).

Id be amazed if West Brom went down. Swansea also have a decentish defence and a good striker addition could help them from January.

[BabuYagu]

Id be amazed if West Brom went down. Swansea also have a decentish defence and a good striker addition could help them from January.

Whilst true, I did say "Looking purely at the graph" for that reason. To cut out all conjecture.

Likewise I would say that in Benteke, Cabaye and Zaha you would think Palace have the talent to pick up points in spite of Hodgson's tactics. In fact when you look at the squads of most premier league sides there are players which make you think they are too good to go down. Which is where the Premier League money has gotten us. 6 teams competing for top four each season and then all the rest who will fight to stay in the league. The best of those teams last season - Everton - now look fucked. Southampton were looking ropey until they beat West Brom. The next three after that were Bournemouth, West Brom & West Ham. They aren't looking too hot either.

It's a weird league now and I think now every season the side who spends badly will be in a lot of trouble. That middle group of sides too good to go down, not good enough to push the top 6 seems to have gone.

[farawayred]

Arresto momentum

[JCB]

Brilliant addition to the thread mate, I like it. My two questions would be this:-
1. What is the biggest number of points in the Premier League era a side has been relegated with? Would this be better than the 48 point line for reducing the clutter?
2. Looking purely at the graph, who would you be most worried about?

The answer to #2 for me is Palace, Swansea & West Brom. They both look the sides heading in just one direction (although Palace had one good result recently).

1. When I did my analysis last year, before we set up the Relegation APLT, I only went as far back as 2000. During that period West Ham were relegated in 2002/2003 with a points total of 42 (I've included the summary data I did back then below seeing as it might interest you). I suppose I could set that as my cutout point and therefore remove a couple of more teams, however drmick loves the clutter for some reason   

Generally, I try to keep it as uncluttered as I can but also try and include all the teams that are in danger of being dragged into the relegation battle so that we can see their trends. It's a delicate balancing act considering that any team in the bottom 10 can easily jump into the bottom 3, especially at the moment. Maybe it was a bit too early to start it this year but as the season progresses hopefully I can drop some more teams out.

2. I see what you did in making your assessment: you visually mapped out trendlines for each of the teams and extrapolated, that way you can project those 3 dropping more than the others. In a way you're not far of the mark, the thing is, you have to be careful at this stage due to the par 0's.

Take Stoke for example  (see https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191.msg15665847#msg15665847). A lot of their games were par 0's, 'bonus games' as I like to think of them. They don't impact on the RAPLT point system in a negative manner, only positively. If you extrapolate with these in mind our perception is skewed. If you exclude these games (but only if no points are gained from them) then you have too small a sample set to make an informed decision. More games will be required to assess them and whether they are a cause for concern.

However taking that aside I would still tend to agree with you - based purely on the graph - that Palace, Swansea & West Brom's continual decline/slope so far does paint them as the ones to watch.

[drmick]

Bournemouth and West Brom away being Par 1s, so Chelsea and Man City climb! Yeah, I think you're right about that middle group being subsumed into almost relegation fodder.

[JCB]

Relegation APLT: Week 10

So this week, I've removed Leicester and Stoke and Brighton is included in the mix. Newcastle are on the cusp as they currently sit on 0 points. They drop any more and you'll see them soon.

[BabuYagu]

1. When I did my analysis last year, before we set up the Relegation APLT, I only went as far back as 2000. During that period West Ham were relegated in 2002/2003 with a points total of 42 (I've included the summary data I did back then below seeing as it might interest you). I suppose I could set that as my cutout point and therefore remove a couple of more teams, however drmick loves the clutter for some reason   

Generally, I try to keep it as uncluttered as I can but also try and include all the teams that are in danger of being dragged into the relegation battle so that we can see their trends. It's a delicate balancing act considering that any team in the bottom 10 can easily jump into the bottom 3, especially at the moment. Maybe it was a bit too early to start it this year but as the season progresses hopefully I can drop some more teams out.

Maybe 45 is a good number. It should include sides  then who are outside the relegation points total but only 1 result away from being dragged into it. Although this early in the season the 38 and 45 lines would have no discernable difference. I think there would likely only be 1.5 points between the two lines.

2. I see what you did in making your assessment: you visually mapped out trendlines for each of the teams and extrapolated, that way you can project those 3 dropping more than the others. In a way you're not far of the mark, the thing is, you have to be careful at this stage due to the par 0's.

Take Stoke for example  (see https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191.msg15665847#msg15665847). A lot of their games were par 0's, 'bonus games' as I like to think of them. They don't impact on the RAPLT point system in a negative manner, only positively. If you extrapolate with these in mind our perception is skewed. If you exclude these games (but only if no points are gained from them) then you have too small a sample set to make an informed decision. More games will be required to assess them and whether they are a cause for concern.

However taking that aside I would still tend to agree with you - based purely on the graph - that Palace, Swansea & West Brom's continual decline/slope so far does paint them as the ones to watch.

I would argue that aside from Everton (who are actually in the bottom three), those three sides would be the most defensive and slow in attack in the Premier League. At the moment, all three have British managers too - continuing on from my bashing of Phil Neville in the Everton thread.

Relegation APLT: Week 9

So this week, I've removed Leicester and Stoke and Brighton is included in the mix. Newcastle are on the cusp as they currently sit on 0 points. They drop any more and you'll see them soon.

Two very interesting teams in this are Everton and Southampton. Southampton are 10th on the table but are 3rd bottom here. Whereas Everton are 18th on the table, yet are only 7th bottom on this. I assume without even looking at fixtures that Southampton have played a lot of the bottom 10 so far. They have a fair amount of points from them to be in 10th but nowhere near enough considering who they played. They likely have most of the top 6 sides in their next 9 games. Everton I assume the opposite is true, they have played more difficult games, not got the points but have games they should expect points from to come over their next 9 games?

[JCB]

Two very interesting teams in this are Everton and Southampton. Southampton are 10th on the table but are 3rd bottom here. Whereas Everton are 18th on the table, yet are only 7th bottom on this. I assume without even looking at fixtures that Southampton have played a lot of the bottom 10 so far. They have a fair amount of points from them to be in 10th but nowhere near enough considering who they played. They likely have most of the top 6 sides in their next 9 games. Everton I assume the opposite is true, they have played more difficult games, not got the points but have games they should expect points from to come over their next 9 games?

Correct as always

[JCB]

Another thing to consider is that Everton's next game is at home to Watford.
Lose that and they drop 3 points into joint 3rd (from bottom) if the other games remain to par.

[BabuYagu]

Another thing to consider is that Everton's next game is at home to Watford.
Lose that and they drop 3 points into joint 3rd (from bottom) if the other games remain to par.

Wow, Southampton's fixtures have been super easy up until now. The Pochettino Southampton (or even Koeman) would have them among the top sides with that lot at the moment.

Pellegrino has a job on to get them some points between now and January or they could get dragged into the bottom group.

Said it in the summer but retaining VVD was just a very stupid decision. They went into the season carrying a load of center backs and extremely light on creation and pace in attack. Benching Boufal just compounded matters.

[Koprich]

That is depressing as fuck.

[Tumbleweed]

That is depressing as fuck.

Am I right in thinking that 6pts of that are made up of the defeats to Spurs and City?

[campioni]

Am I right in thinking that 6pts of that are made up of the defeats to Spurs and City?

No, -1 each at city and spurs as they were both away games.

-2 Watford
-2 Burnley
+2 Leicester
-2 Newcastle
-2 United

We have a chance to win 2 points back this Saturday at West Ham.

[PoetryInMotion]

No, -1 each at city and spurs as they were both away games.

-2 Watford
-2 Burnley
+2 Leicester
-2 Newcastle
-2 United

We have a chance to win 2 points back this Saturday at West Ham.

That amounts to -10 and not accurate. No -2 against Watford as it was a par 1 game. So was yesterday against West Ham. We're onto -6 now.

[SP]

That amounts to -10 and not accurate. No -2 against Watford as it was a par 1 game. So was yesterday against West Ham. We're onto -6 now.

Look at the OP. Watford was a par 3. The numbers quoted there do add up to -8, with City and Spurs in the preceding paragraph.

[PoetryInMotion]

Look at the OP. Watford was a par 3. The numbers quoted there do add up to -8, with City and Spurs in the preceding paragraph.

My bad. We gained two by winning at Leicester (which I didn't account for and assumed that Watford was a par 1).

Considering we're now at -6, the Burnley and Newcastle draws are really hurting now more than other results. Stretching a bit, even Man United game was there for the taking. Had we broken those resolute defenses once more in each game (and we clearly had the chances to do so), we'd be at 0 now and on target for 90. Maddening really.

[Koprich]

My bad. We gained two by winning at Leicester (which I didn't account for and assumed that Watford was a par 1).

Considering we're now at -6, the Burnley and Newcastle draws are really hurting now more than other results. Stretching a bit, even Man United game was there for the taking. Had we broken those resolute defenses once more in each game (and we clearly had the chances to do so), we'd be at 0 now and on target for 90. Maddening really.

Which is why this system has always been so excellent for tracking performance. It is those stupid draws that cost you over a season.

Arsenal are losing as we speak, if Borinho gets a draw today and we beat Chelsea when we play them, things will start to look a little better.

[drmick]

Although Burnley are doing well this season, so maybe not quite as bad.

[rscanderlech]

Wagwaan?

[Prof]

[sms1986]

Now that's looking better!

[Tumbleweed]

No, -1 each at city and spurs as they were both away games.

Ah okay, I misunderstood how this table works.

[Koprich]

Two of our trickier Par 3s coming up after the international break. Means we don't actually have an opportunity to move upwards until the Stoke game.

I've looked at our rival's fixtures and I can't work out which one in addition to Arsenal represents our best route into the APLT Top-4.

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Round 11

[RooiBefok]

APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Round 11

[RooiBefok]

LFC Current & Projected Form : Round 11

[Avens]

I wonder how different this would look if teams like Watford and Newcastle were par 1s and Everton and Leicester, for example, were par 3s. Obviously a lot of this is dependent on the correct categorisation of teams at the start. So whilst we look like we've had a weak start, realistically Watford etc might be taking a lot of points off top teams.

[Suareznumber7]

Starting to move in the right direction. 

[sms1986]

Starting to move in the right direction.

Yeah, things have improved quite a bit in the last few weeks and they'll be even better after the break.

[drmick]

I wonder how different this would look if teams like Watford and Newcastle were par 1s and Everton and Leicester, for example, were par 3s. Obviously a lot of this is dependent on the correct categorisation of teams at the start. So whilst we look like we've had a weak start, realistically Watford etc might be taking a lot of points off top teams.

Last season, with regards the relegation table we had a big debate about Leicester being considered good/Par 3 (they were champions after all) and Everton being considered not so good, but have comfortably been approximately the 7th best team in the PL in recent years, overall.

Somebody posted earlier about that old midtable clique of the likes of Everton, Stoke, Soton, West Brom slowly disappearing into the "bottom" teams.

[Iska]

I look at it more as the par 1s being ‘the hardest places to go’.  Even when they’re crap, Goodison, Stoke, Leicester or St James’s Park still feel like you’re doing alright in the scheme of things to come away with a draw, which I never really feel about Southampton or Palace.

[PoetryInMotion]

For me, the APLT and the Equivalent Fixtures from previous season are the tables that I'd like to follow over the course of every season and I've done this in the recent seasons.

While the APLT currently sets the context on the points scored over the number of (expected) difficult opposition we have played Away so far, the Equivalent Fixture results sets the context on how much we have improved from last season against the same opposition.

After the shambolic Away results against City and Spurs, we'd be surprised to know that we're +1 on points from equivalent fixtures last season and 0 GD. Sets into context all the goals that we've conceded and the opposition we have faced so far are not really that comfortable for us. But we have also managed to scored more in the equivalent fixtures somehow cancelling the large number of Away goals we have conceded. We drew the next two fixtures (Southampton Home and Chelsea Home) last season, let's see how many we're able to gain from them. The more we gain, the more we will be on track to notch 76 points + 'points gained over last season'.

[Fluke]

Good post  ^

[BabuYagu]

For me, the APLT and the Equivalent Fixtures from previous season are the tables that I'd like to follow over the course of every season and I've done this in the recent seasons.

While the APLT currently sets the context on the points scored over the number of (expected) difficult opposition we have played Away so far, the Equivalent Fixture results sets the context on how much we have improved from last season against the same opposition.

After the shambolic Away results against City and Spurs, we'd be surprised to know that we're +1 on points from equivalent fixtures last season and 0 GD. Sets into context all the goals that we've conceded and the opposition we have faced so far are not really that comfortable for us. But we have also managed to scored more in the equivalent fixtures somehow cancelling the large number of Away goals we have conceded. We drew the next two fixtures (Southampton Home and Chelsea Home) last season, let's see how many we're able to gain from them. The more we gain, the more we will be on track to notch 76 points + 'points gained over last season'.

Out of curiosity, how do you treat newly promoted sides in the latter?

For me, it makes sense to take an average of points gained against the relegated sides. Reason being if you take Hull, who beat us last season, or Boro, who we beat, you are talking a swing of 3 points. We could be either +1 or -2 depending on which relegated team you assign to which promoted team.

Whereas an average of points gained from the relegated sides split over the 3 newly promoted sides should give you a more accurate viewpoint.

Agree with everything you said about the usefulness of the tables btw. Good post mate.

[JCB]

Out of curiosity, how do you treat newly promoted sides in the latter?

For me, it makes sense to take an average of points gained against the relegated sides. Reason being if you take Hull, who beat us last season, or Boro, who we beat, you are talking a swing of 3 points. We could be either +1 or -2 depending on which relegated team you assign to which promoted team.

Whereas an average of points gained from the relegated sides split over the 3 newly promoted sides should give you a more accurate viewpoint.

Agree with everything you said about the usefulness of the tables btw. Good post mate.

If I remember correctly you simply replace the top promoted team, with the top relegated team; 2nd placed promoted team with the 2nd placed promoted team; likewise for the 3rd placed team. It's not an exact replacement but it's a logical and simple/effective method of making a comparative analysis considering the situation.In the grand scheme of things it evens itself out, it's what we do here with the APLT.

[JCB]

Relegation APLT: Week 11

Ok another change to my format. I think this one will be the final one.
One table with just 7 teams (a lot more eligible)



And one for drmick   

[BabuYagu]

Relegation APLT: Week 11

Ok another change to my format. I think this one will be the final one.
One table with just 7 teams (a lot more eligible)



And one for drmick   

Cheers mate. The four I highlighted previously - Soton, Palace, West Brom, Swansea - all still look really fucked. Things only moving in one direction for them - Championship direction. Whereas the others have spurts of life in amongst their descent.