Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18  (Read 24007 times)

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #40 on: December 22, 2017, 10:35:35 pm »
Updated.

Level with last year and half way through the season.

Need to a good second half of season to keep pace though.
:D

Offline wemmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #41 on: December 22, 2017, 10:56:46 pm »
Updated.

Level with last year and half way through the season.

Need to a good second half of season to keep pace though.

Not too bad considering we're still in the Champion's League and we've played Arsenal twice in the first half of season.

Offline Bold Warrior

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #42 on: December 22, 2017, 11:23:24 pm »
Not too bad considering we're still in the Champion's League and we've played Arsenal twice in the first half of season.

Cant see us having another January like last years so hopefully were on course for a better position?

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #43 on: December 23, 2017, 06:25:13 am »
Cant see us having another January like last years so hopefully were on course for a better position?

Calendar months don't matter in this table. It's equivalent fixture comparison. We've already played two post January losses of last season and gained points on them. We have two more losses of last season to play in the next three games and for me they're incredibly crucial considering it will be harder to win against City this season or win at Stamford Bridge (both of which we won last season).
« Last Edit: December 23, 2017, 06:26:51 am by PoetryInMotion »

Offline McSquared

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #44 on: December 23, 2017, 08:20:17 am »
Updated.

Level with last year and half way through the season.

Need to a good second half of season to keep pace though.

Looks like you might have got the scoreline wrong Kashin

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #45 on: December 23, 2017, 02:03:23 pm »
Okay so we've managed 35 points for the first half of the season, exactly the same as last season from the corresponding matches.

We need 41 from the next half of the season to match our results from last year and finish on 76 points. Bearing in mind we've played Arsenal twice already and haven't played Swansea at all.

If we finish just a tad stronger than we started we should be good.

Looks like you might have got the scoreline wrong Kashin

1-1 :lmao, that would have felt better. Fixed now.
:D

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #46 on: December 24, 2017, 01:34:56 pm »
Updates:
« Last Edit: December 24, 2017, 01:49:19 pm by JP-65 »

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #47 on: December 24, 2017, 01:38:01 pm »
3 goals against at home to the Top 10, 0 goals against to the Bottom 10

3 goals against away to the Bottom 10........17 goals against away to the Top 10

Stunning really.

Offline sms1986

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #48 on: December 24, 2017, 01:40:49 pm »
3 goals against at home to the Top 10, 0 goals against to the Bottom 10

3 goals against away to the Bottom 10........17 goals against away to the Top 10

Stunning really.

Although nine of those were from two results, one against a rampant City whilst we were down to ten men and and the match away at Spurs.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #49 on: December 24, 2017, 01:41:50 pm »
Although nine of those were from two results, one against a rampant City whilst we were down to ten men and and the match away at Spurs.

5, 4, 3, 3 & 2 in 5 away matches

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #50 on: December 24, 2017, 01:45:22 pm »
5, 4, 3, 3 & 2 in 5 away matches

Arsenal's defense is every bit as weak as ours, possibly worse.

Their record in aways against the top 10: 4, 3, 2, 2, 0, 0

Offline sms1986

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #51 on: December 24, 2017, 01:46:04 pm »
5, 4, 3, 3 & 2 in 5 away matches

I'm aware of those numbers, my point is that two large defeats skews the numbers, whilst the others saw us score three in all three matches.

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #52 on: December 27, 2017, 12:10:47 am »
That's the Swansea anomaly from last season put to bed.

Positive in every metric after today, Merry Christmas everyone.
:D

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #53 on: December 29, 2017, 10:04:39 am »
Updated:

Looking like City will set a new PL record for points this season.  97 is most anyone else can do & they only have to go at 2.17 ppg to do this!


Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #54 on: December 29, 2017, 10:11:17 am »
Results matrix updated:

All at 10 home & 10 away, 10 top 10, 10 bottom 10

We're much improved against the bottom 10, and shade it with 26 points in the bag, but the points differential to our competitors is negligible

United & Chelsea leading the way against the top 10 at 18 points....can we improve here in the second half of the season?

Arsenal & United best at home with 25 points, we're on 20.

Chelsea best away with 20 points, United & ourselves with 18.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2017, 10:17:47 am by JP-65 »

Offline drmick

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #55 on: December 29, 2017, 02:47:05 pm »
Updated:

Looking like City will set a new PL record for points this season.  97 is most anyone else can do & they only have to go at 2.17 ppg to do this!



I'd say Pep will play reserve teams when the league is won, keep the squad rested for FA Cup and CL. They have Spurs and Man Utd in April so they could influence the top 4 positions. Those games are right between the CL quarter finals.

Offline SamAteTheRedAcid

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #56 on: December 31, 2017, 09:05:36 am »
I'd say Pep will play reserve teams when the league is won, keep the squad rested for FA Cup and CL. They have Spurs and Man Utd in April so they could influence the top 4 positions. Those games are right between the CL quarter finals.

That's annoying. Don't need our rivals getting points against a weakened City. Mind you, he can't want to throw the Manc derby whatever, he'll want to make Mourinho suffer.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #57 on: January 1, 2018, 11:13:56 am »
Some interesting analysis from Ben Mayhew on twitter:

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #58 on: January 1, 2018, 11:23:12 am »
Updated the results matrix.  We have played 1 more against the top 10 than our competitors.

By match day 23, we will have played 4 of the 9 top 10 matches for the second half of the season: Arsenal, Leicester, Burnley & City.

Offline Suareznumber7

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #59 on: January 1, 2018, 12:33:17 pm »
I'd say Pep will play reserve teams when the league is won, keep the squad rested for FA Cup and CL.

I’d be pretty surprised if this was the case.  He doesn’t have a history of playing reserve squads at either Barca or Bayern so I’m not sure why he would start doing it at City.  He’ll obviously rotate but they have a deep squad so he’ll put out a team strong enough to win each game.

Offline JCB

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #60 on: January 1, 2018, 01:06:53 pm »
Some interesting analysis from Ben Mayhew on twitter:

Cheers for that. Very interesting.

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #61 on: January 1, 2018, 08:41:55 pm »
+6 going into the City game. Important phase of the season this.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #62 on: January 2, 2018, 01:48:00 pm »
Since the Spurs loss, we've gone P13 W9 L0 D4 for 31 points & 2.4ppg, which is 91 points for a full season.

United are P13 W8 L2 D3 for 27 points.
Chelsea are P12 W9 L1 D2 for 29 points.  Arsenal are next up for them
Arsenal are P12 W6 L2 D4 for 22 points.  Chelsea are next up for them
Spurs are P11 W5 L4 D2 for 17 points.  Swansea & West Ham bring them to same number of matches.

So, while we have been going well, it's got us ahead of Spurs & Arsenal, closed the gap a bit to United, and really not made much headway against Chelsea.

Offline Xabier Alonso Olano

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #63 on: January 2, 2018, 02:52:05 pm »
It's been a great run for us, another such run have us nailed on for top 4 I'd assume. But the selfish part of me would love for us to even improve on that run, although to do so we would need to improve against the top ten at home and away. I'd love to see us put together a winning sequence of 5+ games, something we've not yet managed this season. Not so much for this season (although it would help) but for next season definitely if we are to have a real go at winning the league.

Does anyone know what our longest winning run under Klopp is?


Offline zip

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #64 on: January 2, 2018, 03:00:16 pm »
It's been a great run for us, another such run have us nailed on for top 4 I'd assume. But the selfish part of me would love for us to even improve on that run, although to do so we would need to improve against the top ten at home and away. I'd love to see us put together a winning sequence of 5+ games, something we've not yet managed this season. Not so much for this season (although it would help) but for next season definitely if we are to have a real go at winning the league.

Does anyone know what our longest winning run under Klopp is?
Last season we won four times in a row in the league (twice). The first run was broken by a 0-0 draw with United. After that we went on to win another 4 in 5.
One day, people will hopefully look back and say "I was there son. I was there the year that Spurs won nothing again."

Offline wige

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #65 on: January 2, 2018, 03:07:39 pm »
Although nine of those were from two results, one against a rampant City whilst we were down to ten men and and the match away at Spurs.

Post Burnley we've conceded 25 goals in 22 games. 1.13 goals per game.

We conceded 15 in four games - City, Spurs, Watford, Arsenal. That's 60% of our seasons goals in 18% of our games.

Outside of that we concede 0.55 goals per game. 10 in 18.

We're a bloody good team, as all the metrics in JP-65's post below show:

Some interesting analysis from Ben Mayhew on twitter:

Offline Xabier Alonso Olano

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #66 on: January 2, 2018, 03:23:09 pm »
Last season we won four times in a row in the league (twice). The first run was broken by a 0-0 draw with United. After that we went on to win another 4 in 5.

Thanks, I remember the run now you've mentioned it. Would be great to get to 5 wins on the spin, even across all comps would do. Currently on 3, would love to beat both Everton and City to get to the five, would be a good achievement from Swansea, Leicester, Burnley, Everton and City, not the easiest run that considering the timings of the first three games.

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #67 on: January 2, 2018, 03:31:25 pm »
Updated OP after Burnley.
:D

Offline Paul1611

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #68 on: January 3, 2018, 12:41:30 am »
First time since game week 3 we’re averaging 2 points per game over the season which is a good benchmark for a top 4 finish. 

Offline Grobbelrevell

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #69 on: January 3, 2018, 08:56:41 am »
Interesting to note that last season, we were unbeaten in all of our remaining fixtures from here.

That includes some tough fixtures away at Chelsea (1-2 last season), United (0-0 last season) and both City (1-0 last season) and Spurs (2-0 last season) at home. Those results will be difficult to match, although there are a few draws in there as well, that we should be looking at improving on this time around. Not a huge amount of scope to better last seasons overall take from here though.
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Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #70 on: January 3, 2018, 09:53:29 am »
Yeah, we only droped 10 points in the final 16 games remaining. But we should be able to at least match last seasons total, as we're 6 points ahead. That would mean we keep up our rate of 2 points/game. I think we can better that as well, maybe finish close to 80 points. But there are some tough games left, and it wont be easy.

Offline wige

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #71 on: January 3, 2018, 09:59:10 am »
Interesting to note that last season, we were unbeaten in all of our remaining fixtures from here.

That includes some tough fixtures away at Chelsea (1-2 last season), United (0-0 last season) and both City (1-0 last season) and Spurs (2-0 last season) at home. Those results will be difficult to match, although there are a few draws in there as well, that we should be looking at improving on this time around. Not a huge amount of scope to better last seasons overall take from here though.

Agree with all that until the last sentence! We have plenty of scope to improve imo, we're a better side, we're better rested, and we have a better squad.

Offline dudleyred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #72 on: January 3, 2018, 10:07:12 am »
38 points from these remaining corresponding fixtures last season and unbeaten! I’d settle for that again. Reality is we’ll likely lose a game somewhere along the line so need to turn the draws into wins. Turn three draws to wins and gives scope to lose a couple without being worse off obviously.

Very doable but would leave us on an incredible run of form for last 30 games or so in the league.

Offline Grobbelrevell

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #73 on: January 3, 2018, 10:56:03 am »
Agree with all that until the last sentence! We have plenty of scope to improve imo, we're a better side, we're better rested, and we have a better squad.

What I mean by that is, whilst we absolutely should be looking to turn draws from last season against the likes of Southampton (a), West Ham (h) and Bournemouth (h) into wins, to simultaneously assume that we will at least match last seasons wins against Chelsea (a), City (h) and Spurs (h) is no given. It's not beyond the realms of possibility though, of course not, and I agree that we are a better team (I also fancy us to end City's unbeaten run), but it'll be far from easy. We could gain 6 points by winning those draws from last season, and then draw the games we won against the bigger sides, leaving us level on take overall. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish anywhere from 75-80 points, and I think that's the range that we'll fall into come May.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #74 on: January 4, 2018, 10:09:13 pm »
Updates:

Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #75 on: January 4, 2018, 10:15:48 pm »
What I mean by that is, whilst we absolutely should be looking to turn draws from last season against the likes of Southampton (a), West Ham (h) and Bournemouth (h) into wins, to simultaneously assume that we will at least match last seasons wins against Chelsea (a), City (h) and Spurs (h) is no given. It's not beyond the realms of possibility though, of course not, and I agree that we are a better team (I also fancy us to end City's unbeaten run), but it'll be far from easy. We could gain 6 points by winning those draws from last season, and then draw the games we won against the bigger sides, leaving us level on take overall. I wouldn't be surprised to see us finish anywhere from 75-80 points, and I think that's the range that we'll fall into come May.

If we do that, we'll be winning all the remaining games.

I think the doable figure would be to keep the +6 we have now in the end, by winning some of the winnable games that we dropped points last season like Huddersfield A (Sunderland A), West Ham H, Bournemouth H then it would give us some leeway in the games like City H, Chelsea A and Spurs H where we need not match last season's results but getting draws would be sufficient. Of course losing one/two of these games especially Chelsea/Spurs is not advisable as they're direct competitors for Top 4.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #76 on: January 5, 2018, 03:48:04 pm »
A few observations:

Title Race: 
No one, including City, will go perfect over the remaining 16 matches.  A team going well will be in the 2.4 -2.5 ppg (38-40 points).  So best anyone can do is about 85-87 points.  City can match that at 1.5-1.6 ppg!

CL Spots: 
I still maintain that United & Chelsea will be in a CL position by season end.  I believe Arsenal are out, they haven't done 2.25 ppg over the 2nd half of a season for quite awhile now (look at the data, their 2nd half's are weaker than their 1st half's). 
The threat to our position is Spurs.  Over the past 3 season's they have had stronger ends then beginnings, and have achieved over 2.13 ppg in 2 of these.
It is very possible that we go better than 1.94 ppg over the remainder of the season, we did it last year with a poor January, which will make the hurdle for Spurs even greater

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #77 on: January 5, 2018, 04:18:25 pm »
A few observations:

Title Race: 
No one, including City, will go perfect over the remaining 16 matches.  A team going well will be in the 2.4 -2.5 ppg (38-40 points).  So best anyone can do is about 85-87 points.  City can match that at 1.5-1.6 ppg!

CL Spots: 
I still maintain that United & Chelsea will be in a CL position by season end.  I believe Arsenal are out, they haven't done 2.25 ppg over the 2nd half of a season for quite awhile now (look at the data, their 2nd half's are weaker than their 1st half's). 
The threat to our position is Spurs.  Over the past 3 season's they have had stronger ends then beginnings, and have achieved over 2.13 ppg in 2 of these.
It is very possible that we go better than 1.94 ppg over the remainder of the season, we did it last year with a poor January, which will make the hurdle for Spurs even greater


That's interesting. I had it in my head Arsenal had a strong finish last season after they pushed us for a CL spot right to the end.

Spurs have a tough run of games at the end of this month, they play United, us and Arsenal one after the other. They still have Chelsea and City to come after that. It would be nice to put a bit of distance between ourselves and Spurs as soon as possible to get comfortably in the CL positions, then we can go after 2nd place.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #78 on: January 5, 2018, 04:31:18 pm »
That's interesting. I had it in my head Arsenal had a strong finish last season after they pushed us for a CL spot right to the end.

Spurs have a tough run of games at the end of this month, they play United, us and Arsenal one after the other. They still have Chelsea and City to come after that. It would be nice to put a bit of distance between ourselves and Spurs as soon as possible to get comfortably in the CL positions, then we can go after 2nd place.

Yup, we've played 2 less matches against the bottom 10 as well, so if we continue to do well here that will help us.

They have 6 home matches left against the top 10.  They have done poorly on aways against the top 10, but better at home, with the caveat being Wembley....not enough history to determine if this will impact on them negatively, but I believe it will.

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #79 on: January 5, 2018, 04:36:43 pm »
A few observations:

Title Race: 
No one, including City, will go perfect over the remaining 16 matches.  A team going well will be in the 2.4 -2.5 ppg (38-40 points).  So best anyone can do is about 85-87 points.  City can match that at 1.5-1.6 ppg!

CL Spots: 
I still maintain that United & Chelsea will be in a CL position by season end.  I believe Arsenal are out, they haven't done 2.25 ppg over the 2nd half of a season for quite awhile now (look at the data, their 2nd half's are weaker than their 1st half's). 
The threat to our position is Spurs.  Over the past 3 season's they have had stronger ends then beginnings, and have achieved over 2.13 ppg in 2 of these.
It is very possible that we go better than 1.94 ppg over the remainder of the season, we did it last year with a poor January, which will make the hurdle for Spurs even greater


Yeah it looks like Chelsea and United should be a cert for 2nd and 3rd, the APLT backs this up to - though still very possible for us. Spurs have gained that ability to see out a Champions League spot, taken the mantle from something Arsenal used to do very well.

Two consecutive years in a row will do our mentality wonders, hopefully this shapes up to be an 05-06 season where we just have fun and play knowing Chelsea (City) had the league wrapped up in November.
:D