I think most people can see that Liverpool are in a difficult place trhis season, for a whole host of reasons; fatigue, age, recruitment, injury etc. Most fans now also accept that it isn't just a case of a player here, a tweak there, that the team is going to need a complete rebuild, due to age profile and persistent injury issues for players who have given lot over the last few years. I have seen this referred to as 'transition' (i.e. a shift from one team to a new set of players, possibly with a different style of play). Arguably this started last year with the introduction of Diaz, and then Carvalho and Nunez in the summer. It would appear Klopp started the transformation up top and left the defence and midfield until next summer. Part of the frustration with the winter window was the lack of progress on this transition and the seeming acceptance of a year off by the squad and management. It got me wondering as to how the transition had gone so far and what the new team might look like.
To that end I got the squad list and divided it into two parts by age (27 being the arbitrary cut off point I used between the two to represent the peak age). I then sorted by position (GK, D, M, F) and finally, excluded Mello (as the news appears to be he will be back to Juventus in the summer). I then highlighted two sets of players: those whose contract ends this year and those under 27 who could be considered regular first team players. It looks like this:
I think the interesting bits for me are as follows:
1. Phillips and Williams are unlikely to be renewed or replaced.
2. A plan might be there for Matip, but probably won't be executed until 2024
3. Of the five front men under the age of 27, ALL of them could play LWF and only Jota and Nunez could be considered for a central role. It's a surprising concentration (making the Gakpo decision even more inexplicable). I wonder if one could be converted to a left wing back for cover?
4. The above probably explains why ther is so much talk of Firmino renewing. It's certainly an area where, having a Firmino makes a lot of sense, particularly when you look at the age/contract profile.
5. The lack of young, experienced midfielders is obvious, as are the contracts expiring for Keita, Chamberlain and Milner. It's a clear area for recruitment in the summer, and likely points to the mindset of the manager when he was planning recruitment in the summer/winter of 2022.
6. Had you said during the summer that Klopp's plan was to let the then underperforming Keita, Chamberlain and (aging) Milner go, Keep Fabinho, Henderson and Thiago for another year or two and recruit some new midfielders in the summer, most people would have nodded in agreement. The subsequent loss of form of Thiago, Henderson and (especially) Fabinho has completely undermined these plans, and it's pretty obvious Klopp is now nursing the team until the summer with a view to getting bodies in then.
All of the above is frustrating, but at least it appears that a transition plan is in place. It's still hard explain why the transfer team decided to switch their intertest from a midfielder at the start of Summer 2022 to a series of left-footed forwards by the end of the following transfer window. It also seems extraordinary to ignore the gaping holes in the middle during the last window, but at least there is the semblance of a plan in place, eventhough it appears much longer term than most would prefer. Ultimately though, to quote the sage Mike Tyson, "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” There is an argument Liverpool needed to be more flexible, especially when the problems in the team were becoming so detrimental.
