‘Variance’ is just a nice way of distilling all the other things people are talking about (shot selection, composure, decision making) and removing all player agency in these situations. There’s a good example of it just this season where Michael Owen (he was good at scoring goals like) was critical of Nunez after the Brentford game because even though Nunez scored he felt the shot selection (lobbing the keeper) was an insane choice of shot. Fast forward a few weeks and Nunez tries the same thing against Atalanta and fluffs his lines. Variance ennit, he scored one and missed one. But it ignores the question of whether it was even the right shot selection to begin with, or could he have rounded the keeper etc? All those other factors that come into play but we’re sat here pretending don’t.
Owen quote:
That finish from Darwin Nunez yesterday was insane. I can’t stop watching it. And I can’t begin to explain how difficult a skill that is. Moving at pace, the ball running away from you, being inside the box with no room for error. Incredible. BUT, it is also further proof that if he is to get closer to becoming the great player many people think he can be, he has to adapt his way of thinking. I mean, to even consider that finish is madness. It’s a 1 in 10, 2 in 10 finish at best. Learning to slot, dink or go round the GK is a far more productive way to score and will increase his chances to 4 or 5 in 10, thus massively increasing his end return. I’m really not trying to rain on his parade as that goal was pure class. But I’d rather see it when Liverpool are 3-0 up, not at 0-0😂
