Author Topic: Statistics and Analytics - insight into our performance  (Read 192499 times)

Offline JCB

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #920 on: October 31, 2017, 10:16:51 pm »
Whilst I had the data to hand I'd thought I'd check what the xG was per 'shots on target'. As suspected Mignolet tops the list. The poor bastard has it harder than the rest of the goalkeepers.


Online JackWard33

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #921 on: November 1, 2017, 12:39:29 am »
I'd put more faith in this sort of thing, which is based on xG:

https://twitter.com/footballfactman/status/923632562861412355

Yup save % is trash...  this is more accurate but still not exactly great reading

14th and sometimes a bit lower is where Mignolet has consistently sat in the XG based models I've seen in the last couple of years
He really isn't a very good shot stopper

Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #922 on: November 1, 2017, 10:33:54 am »
Whilst I had the data to hand I'd thought I'd check what the xG was per 'shots on target'. As suspected Mignolet tops the list. The poor bastard has it harder than the rest of the goalkeepers.



Pretty much.

On the flipside you'd probably say our attackers have it easier than most given that our play is geared towards scoring goals.

Yet here's Roberto Firmino as a centre-forward (before the 'he plays out wide sometimes' whiners come in) under Klopp (in over 3100 minutes):

0.41 NPG/90
2.9 Shots/90
14.6% Shot Conversion

If I was to give you a former Liverpool striker's almost identical stats:

0.4 NPG/90
3.0 Shots/90
14.6% Shot Conversion

Who would you say they belong to?

Offline SerbianScouser

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #923 on: November 1, 2017, 11:00:23 am »
It's admirable how relentless your anti-Firmino propaganda is.

However what sets Firmino apart from Benteke in a major way is a huge chasm in creativity, technique and work-rate.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #924 on: November 1, 2017, 11:01:20 am »

Offline BabuYagu

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #925 on: November 1, 2017, 11:01:20 am »
It's admirable how relentless your anti-Firmino propaganda is.

However what sets Firmino apart from Benteke in a major way is a huge chasm in creativity, technique and work-rate.

And the fact Benteke is a #9, Firmino is a false #9. I.e. not a 9. I.e. a playmaker, number 10.
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #926 on: November 1, 2017, 11:20:42 am »
Benteke?

Bingo.

It's admirable how relentless your anti-Firmino propaganda is.

However what sets Firmino apart from Benteke in a major way is a huge chasm in creativity, technique and work-rate.

It's admirable how relentless the anti-Mignolet propaganda in this thread is. I felt it was due a change in direction. This is a team sport.

I'd have Firmino up front for us all day over Benteke. Doesn't mean I'd have him up front all day over someone else though.

And the fact Benteke is a #9, Firmino is a false #9. I.e. not a 9. I.e. a playmaker, number 10.

He's not particularly creative or involved for a '10'. Fewer than 30 passes per game and 2 key passes per game. Compare that to an actual 10 like Ozil and he's essentially at 50% of the productivity rate with a significantly lower pass completion rate.
« Last Edit: November 1, 2017, 11:25:51 am by LallanaInPyjamas »

Offline SamAteTheRedAcid

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #927 on: November 1, 2017, 11:41:37 am »
He's not particularly creative or involved for a '10'. Fewer than 30 passes per game and 2 key passes per game. Compare that to an actual 10 like Ozil and he's essentially at 50% of the productivity rate with a significantly lower pass completion rate.

So you're saying Firmino isn't quite as good as having Ozil and Benteke on the pitch for the price of one player? Well there's a surprise.
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Offline LallanaInPyjamas

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #928 on: November 1, 2017, 11:47:03 am »
So you're saying Firmino isn't quite as good as having Ozil and Benteke on the pitch for the price of one player? Well there's a surprise.

I'm saying his conversion rate isn't good enough, though this is nothing new. What is new is that his passing/creativity - which made said conversion rate more excusable - has taken a pretty sizable dip from last season.

Offline JCB

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #929 on: November 1, 2017, 11:49:20 am »
Bingo.

It's admirable how relentless the anti-Mignolet propaganda in this thread is. I felt it was due a change in direction. This is a team sport.


I don't know where that came from. The first set of stats clearly shows that he's not doing a good job as a goalkeeper.
The 2nd stat was just a logical follow up question. How difficult are the shots Goalkeepers face?

If anything both sets of stats combined tell me that a) the Goalkeeper and b) the defence aren't doing well at all. But we all know that to be the case.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #930 on: November 1, 2017, 11:53:19 am »
Pretty much.

On the flipside you'd probably say our attackers have it easier than most given that our play is geared towards scoring goals.

Yet here's Roberto Firmino as a centre-forward (before the 'he plays out wide sometimes' whiners come in) under Klopp (in over 3100 minutes):

0.41 NPG/90
2.9 Shots/90
14.6% Shot Conversion

If I was to give you a former Liverpool striker's almost identical stats:

0.4 NPG/90
3.0 Shots/90
14.6% Shot Conversion

Who would you say they belong to?

You want to compare their expected assists and chance creation now ....and then you could compare their pressing actions and ball recoveries

Or we could keep pretending that Klopp wants his 9 to stand there and shoot

Offline BabuYagu

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #931 on: November 1, 2017, 12:12:18 pm »
Bingo.

It's admirable how relentless the anti-Mignolet propaganda in this thread is. I felt it was due a change in direction. This is a team sport.

I'd have Firmino up front for us all day over Benteke. Doesn't mean I'd have him up front all day over someone else though.

He's not particularly creative or involved for a '10'. Fewer than 30 passes per game and 2 key passes per game. Compare that to an actual 10 like Ozil and he's essentially at 50% of the productivity rate with a significantly lower pass completion rate.

I'm saying his conversion rate isn't good enough, though this is nothing new. What is new is that his passing/creativity - which made said conversion rate more excusable - has taken a pretty sizable dip from last season.

The problem is that when you keep talking about Firmino as a striker, comparing him to strikers and focus on numbers that you look at to quantify strikers, it makes me think you don't know what Firmino is, his role in the side and how we should be trying to measure his contribution.

Then the highlighted part tells me you know exactly what the problem is with his game so far this season - which is fair criticism and I have been saying so much myself. Although comparing him to Ozil is strange too as you are then comparing him to a pure #10. A player than does nothing but link and create. The players to compare him to would be those who do a lot of both. I guess that is players like Hazard, Ramsey, Erikson, Sanchez. Ozil will tend to have elite creative stats. A pure goalscorer will have elite shooting stats. Firmino - and players like him, will (hopefully) have a bit under elite in both stats. So he will never score like Lewandowski, or create like Kagawa, instead you want him doing a high amount of both like Reus.

Just comparing Firmino's shooting stats to strikers is like comparing Pirlo's defensive stats to Makelele's. Or Makelele's passing stats to Pirlo. Sure, when you put the team down on paper, they occupy the same space but they are not really comparable in terms of their role in the team, the output you would expect from them and how you would measure their contribution. Firmino would be more like Edgar Davids in that comparison. Far better on the ball than Makelele. Far better off it than Pirlo. He wasn't elite at either side of the game but a very high level player in both areas.
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Offline riismeister

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #932 on: November 1, 2017, 09:46:37 pm »
A curiosity; in our first 16 games we had 14 different scoreline results. 3x 1-1s and 13 different scorelines which only occured once each.

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #933 on: November 2, 2017, 09:37:49 am »
Expected goals data for the CL. We're the best team in it ;-)

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #934 on: November 7, 2017, 10:57:48 am »
https://understat.com/league/EPL

We're second in xG. After all the crisis talks and all that after these 11 games compared to our rivals we are still a genuine attacking force and now it can only improve with Phil, Lallana and Mane getting back. Also nice to see Firmino up there with the most creative players in the league.

Offline Klippity Klopp

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #935 on: November 7, 2017, 11:37:43 am »
https://understat.com/league/EPL

We're second in xG. After all the crisis talks and all that after these 11 games compared to our rivals we are still a genuine attacking force and now it can only improve with Phil, Lallana and Mane getting back. Also nice to see Firmino up there with the most creative players in the league.

Graphic:


Offline redk84

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #936 on: November 7, 2017, 01:13:35 pm »
Funny that. Looking at the stats....and the actual table.....there's hardly anything separating us from Arsenal. At the moment anyway.

Think certain things are best left judged by your own eyes imo....I knowwe are a better team than Arsenal. I am also a biased Liverpool fan tho  ;D

Same for strikers finishing ability....think you can tell by watching a player how good a finisher they are...

Guess stats always help tho and are useful when used in certain context.
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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #937 on: November 7, 2017, 01:36:58 pm »
Funny that. Looking at the stats....and the actual table.....there's hardly anything separating us from Arsenal. At the moment anyway.

Think certain things are best left judged by your own eyes imo....I knowwe are a better team than Arsenal. I am also a biased Liverpool fan tho  ;D

Same for strikers finishing ability....think you can tell by watching a player how good a finisher they are...

Guess stats always help tho and are useful when used in certain context.

Arsenal have an ability to go under the radar. Their seasons are an endless cycle of losing big games, becoming a laughing stock due to their manager and fan circus, winning seemingly meaningless matches against crap teams, working themselves back into contention, and losing another big game to kick it off again. Most seasons they managed to be not crap enough to be beaten to fourth.

Offline JCB

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #938 on: November 7, 2017, 01:39:16 pm »
Got this when I sorted by xG per 90



Proof positive that a small sample size can royally fuck up your results  :D

Offline El Lobo

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #939 on: November 7, 2017, 01:43:47 pm »
What a player Niasse is!  :shocked
If he's being asked to head the ball too frequently - which isn't exactly his specialty - it could affect his ear and cause an infection. Especially if the ball hits him on the ear directly.

Offline Medellin

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #940 on: November 8, 2017, 10:35:14 am »
Just saw this..

Minutes per goal or assist for Liverpool this season:

Sturridge 86
Salah 90
Coutinho 94
Mané 110
Firmino 118
Milner 221
Alexander-Arnold 232
Oxlade-Chamberlain 235
Can 239
Henderson 435
Moreno 450
Gomez 926
Wijnaldum 1212
Matip 1530

« Last Edit: November 8, 2017, 11:17:24 am by Medellin »
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Offline BabuYagu

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #941 on: November 8, 2017, 11:03:15 am »
Just saw this..

Minutes per goal or assist for Liverpool this season:

Sturridge 86
Salah 90
Coutinho 94
Mané 110
Firmino 118
Milner 221
Alexander-Arnold 232
Oxlade-Chamberlain 235
Can 239
Henderson 435
Moreno 450
Gomez 926
Wijnaldum 1212
Matip 1530

Scares the shit outta me when i paste someone's work & i dont know if they are affilliated with the rag or not..
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EDIT:- I like looking at attacking players in terms of production rather than just goals. I'll try to dig up the same for goals + assists to see what that looks like as hopefully it should give us a better sense of involvement from midfielders, full backs etc
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Offline Medellin

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #943 on: November 8, 2017, 11:16:55 am »
Yep!
Apologies for even mentioning it & good work too.
*Edited post.
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Offline JCB

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #944 on: November 8, 2017, 06:44:11 pm »
Just stuck this up on the Can thread but thought it deserved a spot here as well:
Average stats after Matchweek 11



edit: Forgot to add our captain  ::)
« Last Edit: November 8, 2017, 07:50:42 pm by JCB »

Offline Klippity Klopp

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #945 on: November 16, 2017, 10:56:37 am »



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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #946 on: November 17, 2017, 10:39:15 pm »
Ha, oh jeez that's pretty brutal. Stats to confirm the eye test: we suck at defending set pieces.

Offline riismeister

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #947 on: December 6, 2017, 11:30:48 pm »
Felt like this sort of belonged here as well.

« Last Edit: December 6, 2017, 11:34:51 pm by riismeister »

Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #948 on: December 7, 2017, 10:32:38 am »
Liverpool with Coutinho, Firmino, Mané and Salah on the pitch together:
281 minutes.
12 goals scored.
Goal every 23 minutes.

Sevilla H - 7 mins, 0 goals.
Spartak A - 70 mins, 1 goal.
Southampton H - 69 mins, 3 goals.
Sevilla A - 63 mins, 3 goals.
Spartak H - 72 mins, 5 goals.

Offline McrRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #949 on: December 10, 2017, 12:59:13 pm »
Liverpool with Coutinho, Firmino, Mané and Salah on the pitch together:
281 minutes.
12 goals scored.
Goal every 23 minutes.

Sevilla H - 7 mins, 0 goals.
Spartak A - 70 mins, 1 goal.
Southampton H - 69 mins, 3 goals.
Sevilla A - 63 mins, 3 goals.
Spartak H - 72 mins, 5 goals.
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Offline BassTunedToRed

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #950 on: December 10, 2017, 01:24:00 pm »
Love that Andy. This is why we should play them always. As long as they're not redlining...

Not all playing today...

Offline riismeister

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #951 on: December 14, 2017, 01:40:19 pm »
About the discussions around rotation;

https://twitter.com/riismeister/status/941283319039262720


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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #952 on: December 17, 2017, 11:24:41 pm »
About those elusive clean sheets in the Premier League...

Man Utd - 10
Burnley - 9
LFC - 8
Chelsea - 8
City - 8
Spurs - 7

4 of ours have come in the last 7 PL games. But apparently we still have the worst keeper in the world and the dodgiest defence in human history, or so Sky and just about any other pundit on earth would have you believe whenever they have the chance to screen any of our matches and pass what they claim to be 'commentary'.

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #953 on: January 2, 2018, 06:30:00 pm »
Amongst the Keita speculation in the summer, there was some posts on the internet about the packing metric. Michael Caley had a similar metric called progressive passes and runs. Unfortunately Caley's deleted his twitter graphs showing the best 'packing' players from around the top leagues, and public data on packing was scarce anyway.

Anybody got any data similar to Caley's, or anything on packing at all? Be it obscure twitter reference or reddit post or more?

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #954 on: January 2, 2018, 06:56:29 pm »
Amongst the Keita speculation in the summer, there was some posts on the internet about the packing metric. Michael Caley had a similar metric called progressive passes and runs. Unfortunately Caley's deleted his twitter graphs showing the best 'packing' players from around the top leagues, and public data on packing was scarce anyway.

Anybody got any data similar to Caley's, or anything on packing at all? Be it obscure twitter reference or reddit post or more?

Just having a read of it there. It's basically a measure of "penetration" - in other words, the first principle of attack. I like it :D

But then again, shots-on-target measures a lot of the same thing, since the very first, and most basic measure of penetration, is a goal or shot on target :)
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Offline Shaved Crossbar

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #955 on: January 2, 2018, 08:02:44 pm »
Just having a read of it there. It's basically a measure of "penetration" - in other words, the first principle of attack. I like it :D

But then again, shots-on-target measures a lot of the same thing, since the very first, and most basic measure of penetration, is a goal or shot on target :)

Packing is a bit more specialised - it can measure how well people pass or dribble through the lines. When I looked at Caley’s posts over the summer (his stat is one measure of packing), the leaders were guys like de Bruyne, Silva, Hamsik, Banega, Coutinho and obviously Messi - the stat is basically quantifying midfield playmaking. What I’m looking for is similar rankings to his now removed Twitter graphs, to see how potential [redacted] replacements do. Guys like Fekir and Lemar.

There’s a German sports company called Impect that also produce a measure of packing, but not publicly. Caley uses Opta data.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #956 on: January 2, 2018, 08:17:18 pm »
Packing is a bit more specialised - it can measure how well people pass or dribble through the lines. When I looked at Caley’s posts over the summer (his stat is one measure of packing), the leaders were guys like de Bruyne, Silva, Hamsik, Banega, Coutinho and obviously Messi - the stat is basically quantifying midfield playmaking. What I’m looking for is similar rankings to his now removed Twitter graphs, to see how potential [redacted] replacements do. Guys like Fekir and Lemar.

There’s a German sports company called Impect that also produce a measure of packing, but not publicly. Caley uses Opta data.

That's just penetration, though, Shaved. Penetration is the act of getting the ball past at least one defender, through a dribble, pass or shot.

You could probably do a comparison yourself using Squawka. Successful Dribbles, Key Passes, Shots on Target, Goals and Through Balls would probably give you a good picture, although it wouldn't be able to attach a competent score on it like Packing does. Although technically a long-ball team that by-passes midfield and defence would be capable of having a high Packing score.
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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #957 on: January 2, 2018, 08:28:10 pm »
Packing is a bit more specialised - it can measure how well people pass or dribble through the lines. When I looked at Caley’s posts over the summer (his stat is one measure of packing), the leaders were guys like de Bruyne, Silva, Hamsik, Banega, Coutinho and obviously Messi - the stat is basically quantifying midfield playmaking. What I’m looking for is similar rankings to his now removed Twitter graphs, to see how potential [redacted] replacements do. Guys like Fekir and Lemar.

There’s a German sports company called Impect that also produce a measure of packing, but not publicly. Caley uses Opta data.
I didn't realise Caley had deleted those :( I've had a look for copies and all I've found are postage stamp sized ones which aren't readable.

Offline Shaved Crossbar

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #958 on: January 2, 2018, 08:42:28 pm »
I didn't realise Caley had deleted those :( I've had a look for copies and all I've found are postage stamp sized ones which aren't readable.

Yeah it’s fucking annoying

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Re: Using Stats to Talk about Liverpool
« Reply #959 on: January 2, 2018, 09:38:20 pm »
That's just penetration, though, Shaved. Penetration is the act of getting the ball past at least one defender, through a dribble, pass or shot.

You could probably do a comparison yourself using Squawka. Successful Dribbles, Key Passes, Shots on Target, Goals and Through Balls would probably give you a good picture, although it wouldn't be able to attach a competent score on it like Packing does. Although technically a long-ball team that by-passes midfield and defence would be capable of having a high Packing score.

I’m not looking for a holistic outlook on penetration  - as you said we can just reduce that to shots and goals. The other stats you mentioned are more general attackers stats, with the exception of through balls and successful dribbles (both of which are measured a bit weirdly).

Only a long ball team that produced a lot of successful long balls into the right areas - which isn’t a bad strategy at all to be honest, it’s just hard to do.