Topic: Never mind 'Stop the Boats' - STOP THE TORIES

[TSC]

@JasonGroves1
Tory grandee Sir Charles Walker tells
@Channel4News
 that if Labour's 33-point poll lead is repeated at an election the Conservatives will 'cease to exist as a political party'

 

That poll will definitely panic them. This Tory conference will be hilarious.

I watched that interview.  He said the best they (Tories) could hope for would be a 1997-type Labour landslide, as opposed to being wiped out completely as a political party.  He gave some sort of example of similar happening relatively recently in Canada.

[Red Beret]

It's like Watford last season with Roy Hodgson. He was hopeless and taking them down with a whimper but they'd already sacked two managers, they couldn't really sack a third.

They're damned if they do and damned if they don't though, they're fucked. It was similar with John Major after Black Wednesday in the 90s but at least the Tories had the option of getting rid of him and changing leader, they didn't bother in the end and knew their time was up anyway. They can't even roll the dice now. Any leadership change would need an election to follow quickly. The only thing they could do is to do that and hope it mitigates the losses (bearing in mind the current polling).  Limping on until 2024 could do them a lot more damage.

John Major was actually a canny operator. He resigned the leadership before his opponents were ready to move against them, forcing their hand. He won re-election to the leadership and they were stuck with him for the rest of their term. It was a mark of the chaos and splits they were enduring at the time that he had to do it in the first place though.

They're now caught in a bit of a bind. Where before the plan was likely do enough damage that they could spend a term in opposition sniping at Labour for failing to fix their mess, now they're facing an uphill battle to win the election after next. Fucking things up even more will only worsen those odds.

[TSC]

Truss having emergency talks with the OBR now.

Probably telling the OBR to bury any report.

[west_london_red]

I assume she’s trying to pressure/threaten them.

Does the Chancellor appoint their head?

Yeah, I would assume the OBR report when it comes out will be full of optimistic growth projections, whether the market buys the report or not will be interesting.

[TSC]

Is there a vote planned for the mini-budget? Is it required?

It should be, simply because there are so many Tory MPs against it, as there are against Truss as PM. However I’d envisage there won’t be, unless enough Tories against it are flush enough to risk losing their seats.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Yeah, I would assume the OBR report when it comes out will be full of optimistic growth projections, whether the market buys the report or not will be interesting.

Assuming you are being serious: Presumably, the OBR is populated by serious people who - unlike Tory politicians - are concerned about the possibility of being humiliated and their future careers. I can't imagine that they will be coerced into doing something like that.

[west_london_red]

Probably telling the OBR to bury any report.

This could be another small win for Labour similarly to what was done in 1997 with the plan to give the BoE independence, pledge to bring in a law saying any and all changes to taxation automatically triggers an OBR report on impact so this can’t happen again.

[Jiminy Cricket]

It should be, simply because there are so many Tory MPs against it, as there are against Truss as PM. However I’d envisage there won’t be, unless enough Tories against it are flush enough to risk losing their seats.

Hmm. This lot don't care about anything, norms, or decency. So yeah, I can see them just binning it.

[west_london_red]

Assuming you are being serious: Presumably, the OBR is populated by serious people who - unlike Tory politicians - are concerned about the possibility of being humiliated and their future careers. I can't imagine that they will be coerced into doing something like that.

Do I think professional people can be leaned on to produce a more optimistic report or give someone the answer they want? Yes, I do believe that’s possible.

Or let me put it another way. Do you think Truss and Kami-Kwasi will be allowing a report to come out that says they are fucking morons? If that was the case they would have held firm and said nothing is coming from the OBR until it’s otherwise due.

[Circa1892]

Wouldn’t be surprised if they do threaten the OBR and members of the board simply resign.

[Schmarn]

I think Truss will try to strong arm them into putting out a favourable forecast but the world can see they are discredited so the OBR will be very wary of doing anything they are not comfortable with. They will know that Truss is setting them up to take the blame if they are too bullish. The net result will be a weak document or nothing at all.

Like Trump, Truss think she can lie and bullsh*t her way out of this but you can’t blag the markets anymore than you can blag a virus. Interest rates will shoot up, month after month, screwing everyone with a mortgage. On top of huge energy bills, high food prices and a tanking economy, there will be no magic recovery.

The challenge for Labour now is not just winning but winning big. They need to keep up the momentum by hounding them at every turn, while developing their own agenda. Don’t forget, don’t forgive.

[TSC]

Hmm. This lot don't care about anything, norms, or decency. So yeah, I can see them just binning it.

Much may depend on the lowlights incoming of the Tory conference.  Should that go pear shaped internal opposition to Truss and her cabinet will grow.

[Bobsackamano]

Do I think professional people can be leaned on to produce a more optimistic report or give someone the answer they want? Yes, I do believe that’s possible.

Or let me put it another way. Do you think Truss and Kami-Kwasi will be allowing a report to come out that says they are fucking morons? If that was the case they would have held firm and said nothing is coming from the OBR until it’s otherwise due.

Truss is definitely going in there to lean on them, there's no other reason for the meeting. However when you have a look at the chairman of the OBR Richard Hughes it becomes apparent why KamiKwasi didn't go to him in the first place, this is a very serious economist who has a background that includes work with the Resolution Foundation. In short he's not one of them and I doubt they have any leverage to make him do their bidding.

https://obr.uk/about-the-obr/who-we-are/richard-hughes/

This could be yet another disaster in the making for Truss

[killer-heels]

The OBR would have their credibility wiped out and in fact it would probably make the markets more unstable.

[spen71]

Dan Snow's verdict on Truss' regional radio interviews:

That was the worst provincial campaign of any of our leaders since autumn 1216 when King John, marching about dealing with a rebellion & two invasions, caught dysentery in Norfolk, lost the Crown Jewels in The Wash and died in Nottinghamshire

[west_london_red]

I just had a look at HSBCs mortgage rates, and a 5 year fixed is cheaper then a 2 year fixed deal which is completely arse about face to normal times.

[Jiminy Cricket]

Wouldn’t be surprised if they do threaten the OBR and members of the board simply resign.

This would seem far more likely.

[killer-heels]

I just had a look at HSBCs mortgage rates, and a 5 year fixed is cheaper then a 2 year fixed deal which is completely arse about face to normal times.

Yep and i think 10 years is cheaper than 5 last time i looked.

[west_london_red]

Yep and i think 10 years is cheaper than 5 last time i looked.

I guess that’s a small positive in that the banks are expecting rates to come down in the medium to longer term but not much comfort in the short term obviously.

[Black Bull Nova]

Seriously, either I am going insane or the world around me is. 




I struggled to accept Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson could be Mayor of London (even though I don't really know London as a whole), I then struggled with the concept that Donald Trump could be the President of The USA, that done, I then had to contend with the idea that Boris was actually Prime Minister of the UK. Could it get any madder, yes it could, Liz Truss took over and started to make Boris look like a competent and reasonable PM.


Seriously, is this all happening or is it a bad dream

[rafathegaffa83]

I watched that interview.  He said the best they (Tories) could hope for would be a 1997-type Labour landslide, as opposed to being wiped out completely as a political party.  He gave some sort of example of similar happening relatively recently in Canada.

A key point with this, which happened in the early 90s. A regional western factional party (Reform Party) sprang up to hoover up social conservatives and kooks. The small c-conservative original party (Progressive Conservatives) clung on for a few years in Eastern Canada. Eventually the two parties merged to form the Canadian Reform Alliance Party until someone realized the acronym was CRAP.

The Reform wing renamed the party the Conservative Party of Canada, borrowed anti-science Republican policies and were back in power by 2006 . The wingnuts are now firmly in control, digging deep from the GOP culture war playbook, and battering social media daily with daily outrage and grievance meme politics through a complaint right-wing media.

They'll probably get in to power at the next election despite having an immensely unlikable economically illiterate leader and zero ideas for actual governance. Ergo, do not readily assume the demise of the Conservatives is prolonged or imminent.

[Red Raw]

If anyone missed the eight-car-pile-up set of interviews earlier, here they all are.

https://vimeo.com/755329204

Amazing how the pauses get longer as she works her way through the interviews. Toe curling.

[Red Beret]

Wouldn’t be surprised if they do threaten the OBR and members of the board simply resign.

All things being equal, that would be newsworthy and difficult to bury, but these days who knows?

If OBR members resigned en-masse ahead of a favourable OBR report, then it's pretty easy to join the dots. That said, I've been drinking, so wtf do I know?

[TSC]

40k nurses have quit the NHS in the last year. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63080462

Wonder what will be left of the country after 12 years of a Tory wrecking ball?  In the meantime, don’t get sick.

[mkferdy]

My wife’s a midwife and she’s looking to leave the NHS as she’s had enough now. Dangerous working conditions, overworked and undervalued. God knows how bad it’s going to get under these idiots.

[redbyrdz]

Ah, so now they want to save £5bn on benefit payments, to make up for the £2bn they don't get in taxes from the highest earners. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich. You couldn't make this shit up.

[thaddeus]

Ah, so now they want to save £5bn on benefit payments, to make up for the £2bn they don't get in taxes from the highest earners. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich. You couldn't make this shit up.

And hammer the services that people rely upon.  A few weeks ago by local MP was all over the local press triumphantly telling people that she'd secured a second GP practice for the town.  The latest is that it now won't be happening as every project that's not already underway will be reviewed and most cancelled unless they can demonstrate economic growth as an outcome.

My local (Tory) council are also due to put forward an emergency budget that includes:
- Introducing new thresholds for Adult Social Care to reduce future users by up to 70%!
- Closing rural roads where alternatives are available to save on maintenance
- Reducing libraries from 51 to 9
- Closing the remaining Children's Centres
- Removing some school bus services or asking parents to pay for them
- Asking all departments to make 30% staffing cuts

To give some context the council have been on a cost cutting programme since 2008.  Despite that as of April 2022 they had a budget shortfall of £8m/year (not actually a lot as the budget is over £300m/year).  They now have a projected budget shortfall of £140m/year by 2026.

From people I used to work with it will get voted through but with a lot of disgruntlement.  The Children's Social Care and SEND costs will take up the majority of funding for the first time as neither can be cut (statutory services) whilst both spiral in demand when other services are cut.

Of course, if you're of the background where you don't use these services then you won't care.  They seem to have protected bin collections as a sacred cow but, if it was me, I'd have said we're doing monthly bin collections to get the attention of *everyone* in the area.

[Yorkykopite]

40k nurses have quit the NHS in the last year. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-63080462

Wonder what will be left of the country after 12 years of a Tory wrecking ball?  In the meantime, don’t get sick.

The only way to get them back is to give massive hand-outs to the super rich and the tax exiles.

I mean, seriously, is there anything more to Tory party economics than that?

[Circa1892]

Ah, so now they want to save £5bn on benefit payments, to make up for the £2bn they don't get in taxes from the highest earners. Literally taking from the poor to give to the rich. You couldn't make this shit up.

They’re a fucking disgrace.

Interesting to note that almost exclusively their defenders are now from UKIP/The Brexit Party and/or professional grifters like David Frost. There is nothing left of what was the Conservative Party.

The Mail going with a fucking ludicrous “not for turning” headline. Thatchers fucking dead you ludicrous set of c*nts. This weird robot woman cosplaying as her evil ghost is not your boarding school wank come back to life.

[KillieRed]

My wife’s a midwife and she’s looking to leave the NHS as she’s had enough now. Dangerous working conditions, overworked and undervalued. God knows how bad it’s going to get under these idiots.

The (very believable) conspiracy theory is, of course, that this is exactly what the Tories want: a run down NHS that White Knight private corporations have to come in and save. And then we`ll have health care like the American system; run for profit above all other considerations. What could go wrong?

I have no doubt all public services would be considered for sub-contracting. In my years of experience in the public sector, i can tell you that it only leads one way; waste and worse services.

[thaddeus]

They’re a fucking disgrace.

Interesting to note that almost exclusively their defenders are now from UKIP/The Brexit Party and/or professional grifters like David Frost. There is nothing left of what was the Conservative Party.

The Mail going with a fucking ludicrous “not for turning” headline. Thatchers fucking dead you ludicrous set of c*nts. This weird robot woman cosplaying as her evil ghost is not your boarding school wank come back to life.

I think and hope the Mail are backing the wrong horse on this one.  Most of their reader base will only benefit in small ways from the tax cuts (1% on basic rate, a tiny minority from the removal of the additional rate) but will feel a fair amount of pain.  As the house price obsessives that their editorial team seem to think their readers are, the impacts there are going to sting.

My mum used to buy the Mail on Sunday when we were kids (80s) because my dad liked the sport supplement.  She wasn't particularly political but it got to the point that she got so fucked off with their editorial content that she binned it and never went back.  I hope the Mail backing Truss/Kwarteng has the same impact across households all over the country.

[killer-heels]

I think and hope the Mail are backing the wrong horse on this one.  Most of their reader base will only benefit in small ways from the tax cuts (1% on basic rate, a tiny minority from the removal of the additional rate) but will feel a fair amount of pain.  As the house price obsessives that their editorial team seem to think their readers are, the impacts there are going to sting.

My mum used to buy the Mail on Sunday when we were kids (80s) because my dad liked the sport supplement.  She wasn't particularly political but it got to the point that she got so fucked off with their editorial content that she binned it and never went back.  I hope the Mail backing Truss/Kwarteng has the same impact across households all over the country.

The Mail need to make sure they dont read their comments because the Tories are getting hammered by everyone including Tory voters.

The office for National Stats said the economy grew up to September so no doubt that will be the line drummed into ministers. As we all know though, that shit wont last.

[thaddeus]

The Mail need to make sure they dont read their comments because the Tories are getting hammered by everyone including Tory voters.

The office for National Stats said the economy grew up to September so no doubt that will be the line drummed into ministers. As we all know though, that shit wont last.

I don't see how it can even with accountancy tricks.

The Tories have capped the utilities but still at a higher rate than it's ever been.  Inflation on basic essentials is brutal and interest rate rises are going to compound things.  I doubt there's many households thinking now is a good time to go on a spending bender unless as one last hurrah before filing for bankruptcy.

If there's any growth in the next quarter it will be because people are spending more on the essentials and eating into their savings (or borrowing more) to do so.  Not exactly a great foundation.

[Indomitable_Carp]

I think and hope the Mail are backing the wrong horse on this one.  Most of their reader base will only benefit in small ways from the tax cuts (1% on basic rate, a tiny minority from the removal of the additional rate) but will feel a fair amount of pain.  As the house price obsessives that their editorial team seem to think their readers are, the impacts there are going to sting.

My mum used to buy the Mail on Sunday when we were kids (80s) because my dad liked the sport supplement.  She wasn't particularly political but it got to the point that she got so fucked off with their editorial content that she binned it and never went back.  I hope the Mail backing Truss/Kwarteng has the same impact across households all over the country.

The Mail is an absolute mistery to me.

My Grandad´s from Liveprool, was an active Trade Unionist all through the 1960´s-70s, lost his job in 1980 and moved down South for work in 1981 and was never able to return. Still lives in a Housing Association. Still despises Thatcher and the Tories. Yet he still reads the Daily Mail

When we ask him why he still buys it, he answers "for the crossword" 

[redbyrdz]

The office for National Stats said the economy grew up to September so no doubt that will be the line drummed into ministers. As we all know though, that shit wont last.

The economy grew by 0.2%, its probably bus fares from kids going back to school.



I really hope this is going to be anoth poll tax moment, it could be, there is a lot of discontent, even from tories.

[spen71]

Let’s see how many Tory MPs have a moral compass

[redbyrdz]

Let’s see how many Tory MPs have a moral compass

Even a broken compass is right in at least one direction?

[Statto Red]

I think and hope the Mail are backing the wrong horse on this one.  Most of their reader base will only benefit in small ways from the tax cuts (1% on basic rate, a tiny minority from the removal of the additional rate) but will feel a fair amount of pain.  As the house price obsessives that their editorial team seem to think their readers are, the impacts there are going to sting.

My mum used to buy the Mail on Sunday when we were kids (80s) because my dad liked the sport supplement.  She wasn't particularly political but it got to the point that she got so fucked off with their editorial content that she binned it and never went back.  I hope the Mail backing Truss/Kwarteng has the same impact across households all over the country.

The Mail were crowing, that they finally got a true Tory budget last Saturday, now markets in turmoil, mortgage products suspended left right & centre, Truss car crash interviews on local radio, Labour lead in the polls now at record levels, that would see the Tories wiped out, all in less than a week, yes well done Truss you've excelled yourself.

Will Truss make it to PMQs as PM, Starmer will tear her a new one.

[clinical]

I think Truss will be hailed as the changer of British politics. I think the conservative party are finally done. And it was their own members who did it too. Beautiful.

[Charlie Adams fried egg]

The Mail is an absolute mistery to me.

My Grandad´s from Liveprool, was an active Trade Unionist all through the 1960´s-70s, lost his job in 1980 and moved down South for work in 1981 and was never able to return. Still lives in a Housing Association. Still despises Thatcher and the Tories. Yet he still reads the Daily Mail

When we ask him why he still buys it, he answers "for the crossword" 

I feel your pain. My dad was hard left. Now reads that, mainly because my mum likes the puzzles and they only get one paper now, but even he parrots some of their bullshit back to me. It just shows how pernicious that rag is.