Topic: LIVERPOOL TRANSFER THREAD - WELCOME, 'A PLAYER'!!

[LovelyCushionedHeader]

You reckon both Mane and Salah will still be performing as they are now at the age of 32, given how important speed is to their game?

Robben and Ribery did alright.

[rebel23]

Mane and Salah are 28  ... so lets worry about it in 4 years!

I'm sure we have long term planning and recruitment to worry about it later.  You don't know what players or deals will emerge by then...

[Drinks Sangria]

Robben and Ribery did alright.

Freaks of nature and both better technically than Salah. Plus, if you look at their appearances for Bayern, both had injury issues that limited their reliability. Ribery for example, only managed 30 league appearances once between 08/09 and when he left the club in 2019, with as little as 15 on two occasions. Robben too, in his last 5 seasons with the club only made more than 21 league appearances once, including seasons where he made 15 and 12 appearances.

As great as both were, neither had the durability we’d need or could reliably be called first choice for the latter parts of their Bayern careers, when they were nearing and then past the 32 years old we’ve been discussing.

[Hazell]

Robben and Ribery did alright.

Yep and this idea that as soon as players hit the big 30 mark, they're done for should really be nipped in the bud given the evidence we've seen this fucking season around Europe when it comes to the best players and the top goalscorers. Messi, Ronaldo, Immobile, Benzema, Vardy, De Bruyne, Aguero, Aubameyang are among the best players in the world or are top scorers in their domestic leagues.

No doubt there should be succession planning, I don't think it's as simple as looking at player's age and determining we need someone younger.

[El Lobo]

But his point was, that we don’t spend much unless we sell first. Which is kinda true, no? Since 15/16 we’ve spent approx £515m and recouped approx £410m. £100m net spend over 5 years isn’t huge.

When we signed VVD, Alisson, Keita, Fabinho, Mo, Ox and Shaq in the space of twelve months, who did we sell to buy mate?

[Hazell]

But his point was, that we don’t spend much unless we sell first. Which is kinda true, no? Since 15/16 we’ve spent approx £515m and recouped approx £410m. £100m net spend over 5 years isn’t huge.

I do think there's a legitimate argument to be made about spending but that period has coincided with our most successful period on the pitch in 30 years.

[So… Howard Philips]

When we signed VVD, Alisson, Keita, Fabinho, Mo, Ox and Shaq in the space of twelve months, who did we sell to buy mate?

Coutinho?

But simply lashing money around in the vain hope of winning the Transfer Window Trophy is nonsense.

All of our recent purchases have been a success which points to an excellent recruitment strategy. Or a very lucky one.

I'm going for excellent.

[na fir dearg]

But his point was, that we don’t spend much unless we sell first. Which is kinda true, no? Since 15/16 we’ve spent approx £515m and recouped approx £410m. £100m net spend over 5 years isn’t huge.

But that's the FSG model which has led to a CL and our first league title in 30 years, if it ain't broke don't fix it would be their current thinking I suspect

Maybe this will have to change as time goes on, let's wait and see

[killer-heels]

When we signed VVD, Alisson, Keita, Fabinho, Mo, Ox and Shaq in the space of twelve months, who did we sell to buy mate?

Coutinho was sold in between that time. He was sold in the winter transfer window and after that time we signed Fabinho, Alisson, Shaqiri.

[killer-heels]

But that's the FSG model which has led to a CL and our first league title in 30 years, if it ain't broke don't fix it would be their current thinking I suspect

Maybe this will have to change as time goes on, let's wait and see

I think the interesting thing is how we do that going forward especially with the front 3. Three players who are 28 will we just use them until they decline, in which case what we get for them is reduced. Or do we sell slightly earlier to replace them with a more longer term prospect.

Obviously we have similar situations all over the field such as with Henderson but in those positions we actually have younger replacements already at the club and we dont have 3 essential players that may need alternatives all at the same time.

[El Lobo]

Coutinho was sold in between that time. He was sold in the winter transfer window and after that time we signed Fabinho, Alisson, Shaqiri.

Right but we sold Coutinho for what, £120 million? And signed players over that twelve months for, what, £300 million? So the whole ‘we only spend money after we sell’ thing seems to be this weird myth that people are running with.

[Chris~]

Yep and this idea that as soon as players hit the big 30 mark, they're done for should really be nipped in the bud given the evidence we've seen this fucking season around Europe when it comes to the best players and the top goalscorers. Messi, Ronaldo, Immobile, Benzema, Vardy, De Bruyne, Aguero, Aubameyang are among the best players in the world or are top scorers in their domestic leagues.

No doubt there should be succession planning, I don't think it's as simple as looking at player's age and determining we need someone younger.

It's more about having multiple players starting a physical decline together. You don't really want potentially 3-5 first team players all dropping off physically and needing to adapt how they play together when you're expecting to play 50 odd games a season.

[reddebs]

We have sold before buying under these owners but apart from Coutinho I can't think of a single player we've sold that we wanted to keep since Jurgen arrived.

What we have done is got decent fees for youth and fringe players that previously we couldn't give away.

Sure we rinsed Barca for Coutinho but we've brought in insane amounts from the 20, probably 30 or so other players we've sold and I think that's what's made the difference to our recruitment.

[killer-heels]

Right but we sold Coutinho for what, £120 million? And signed players over that twelve months for, what, £300 million? So the whole ‘we only spend money after we sell’ thing seems to be this weird myth that people are running with.

I am not sure we would have bought someone like Fabinho without Coutinho’s cash coming in considering the amount of midfielders we had.

We definitely can splash the cash when we need to and ultimately our key driver is value and thats based on a players minutes and contribution so no doubt we showed that with Alisson and Van Dijk.

[Original]

Right but we sold Coutinho for what, £120 million? And signed players over that twelve months for, what, £300 million? So the whole ‘we only spend money after we sell’ thing seems to be this weird myth that people are running with.

We did sell other players as well as Coutinho didn't we?

But I do agree with the jist of what you are saying

[killer-heels]

It's more about having multiple players starting a physical decline together. You don't really want potentially 3-5 first team players all dropping off physically and needing to adapt how they play together when you're expecting to play 50 odd games a season.

Its only the front three where this is a sort of concern. The defence and keeper are fine. The midfield do have Henderson and Wijnaldum but then we have Fabinho and Keita there so the drop off isnt stark at all.

Its just the front three where we have no real proven alternative so you would think the investment in that area may be great. We definitely can sign a big player or two but potentially the front three areas may need a lot of cash saving for it and the question is do we use Mane, Salah and Firmino until they are not effective or do we have to move maybe one on to bank that cash for future investment.

[CraigDS]

Some of you are totally ignoring the wage spend too. We rolled the dice and massively increased our wage spend to quite a high level (compared to turnover) in the time we “didn’t spend much”. Thankfully the risk paid off and we were successful on the pitch which then increased revenue to bring the wages down to a better level.

[TepidT2O]

Some of you are totally ignoring the wage spend too. We rolled the dice and massively increased our wage spend to quite a high level (compared to turnover) in the time we “didn’t spend much”. Thankfully the risk paid off and we were successful on the pitch which then increased revenue to bring the wages down to a better level.

Wages to turnover is 57% isn’t it?

[El Lobo]

We did sell other players as well as Coutinho didn't we?

We did, we got £20 million odd each for Solanke and Sakho and £12 million for Ward and a few fringers like Lucas and Kevin Stewart.

We still spent over £100 million net in a year though. So it points to a ‘when we need to spend and it’s sensible to do so, we will’ rather than this often mentioned ‘we need to sell to buy’ fantasy. Which is backed up by us signing Werner until COVID happened.

[CraigDS]

Wages to turnover is 57% isn’t it?

It’s something like that now (can’t be arsed going to check the exact figure) but a few years ago it was much higher as we rolled the dice a little.

[killer-heels]

Wages to turnover is 57% isn’t it?

Right now? Does this account for the new contracts we handed out over the past 12 months?

[Knight]

I mean if you take the words 'we only buy after we sell' in the most literal sense of the word 'after' then it's clearly inaccurate. But if you take it as a description of a strategy to sell players in order to fund new players (and if you interpret the phrase charitably I think that's how you'd read it), then given our net spend over 5 years, there's really not a huge amount to object too. We need to stay within our means, we've made a deliberate policy of resigning current players (with the hikes in wages and agent fees that has meant) rather than necessarily spending so much money on new players. None of this is very controversial. We will sell again this summer (and have started already) and will sign players using the profits. It'd be nice to think going forward our increasing commercial and on pitch success will result in an ability to spend more than £20 million net each season (averaged out over 5 years that is) but COVID-19 has hugely disrupted that, understandably.

Which is backed up by us signing Werner until COVID happened.

I really don't think it is. The uncertainty of COVID-19 was, at least in part, the uncertainty of whether we'd be able to sell players we'd want to sell.

[TepidT2O]

Right now? Does this account for the new contracts we handed out over the past 12 months?

As of last years accounts... they may have gone up a bit, but then revenue will have done too

[ScouserAtHeart]

I don't think they're planning for sustained success the way we understand it. It'll be get the most out of this squad for the next 2 seasons, then a rebuilding year where we don't really challenge for trophies seriously, then another final shot with Klopp in charge in his last year, with him handing a squad that's not yet peaked over to his successor.

[CraigDS]

As of last years accounts... they may have gone up a bit, but then revenue will have done too

Probably not. Winning the CL and a second place finish would have been included in the last accounts.

This years will be missing CL payments due to late finish, same for the PL, and also missing ST renewal income.

[Hazell]

It's more about having multiple players starting a physical decline together. You don't really want potentially 3-5 first team players all dropping off physically and needing to adapt how they play together when you're expecting to play 50 odd games a season.

But the evidence is that players aren't really declining when they hit 30, when you look at the best players around right now. Ours are still 28 too and just because we may not add those areas this summer, doesn't mean we won't next summer, or the one after that. They'll still only be 30 in two years time.

And I missed Lewandowski off my list too.

[TepidT2O]

Probably not. Winning the CL and a second place finish would have been included in the last accounts.

This years will be missing CL payments due to late finish, same for the PL, and also missing ST renewal income.

I was discounting the global pandemic to be honest...

[na fir dearg]

I think the interesting thing is how we do that going forward especially with the front 3. Three players who are 28 will we just use them until they decline, in which case what we get for them is reduced. Or do we sell slightly earlier to replace them with a more longer term prospect.

Obviously we have similar situations all over the field such as with Henderson but in those positions we actually have younger replacements already at the club and we dont have 3 essential players that may need alternatives all at the same time.

yeah it's a tricky one for sure, maybe one of the front 3 will force the issue by wanting to leave at some stage

[CraigDS]

69% it got up to at one point. Dropped down to 58% now which is probably at the brink of where you want it to be consistently. Expect it will be higher in next accounts for various reasons.

Think it’s worth remembering that, as that limits the ability to spend as much as having the cash there for a transfer fee. Keeping the squad together, which when successful with the amount of top class players we have means a lot of very high wages, is a lot more important to Klopp than new signings.

[TepidT2O]

69% it got up to at one point. Dropped down to 58% now which is probably at the brink of where you want it to be consistently. Expect it will be higher in next accounts for various reasons.

Think it’s worth remembering that, as that limits the ability to spend as much as having the cash there for a transfer fee. Keeping the squad together, which when successful with the amount of top class players we have means a lot of very high wages, is a lot more important to Klopp than new signings.

We’ve also had to pay for a £50m training complex. We don’t seem to have taken out a loan for this....

[Dull Tools]

But the evidence is that players aren't really declining when they hit 30, when you look at the best players around right now. Ours are still 28 too and just because we may not add those areas this summer, doesn't mean we won't next summer, or the one after that. They'll still only be 30 in two years time.

And I missed Lewandowski off my list too.

I agree. We could easily have a good for 4 to 7 years out of them.

The closet I have seen to Mane and Salah is Robben and Ribery at Bayern. They both joined Bayern at 25 and 24. They then stayed till they were 35 and 36.

If Mane and Salah have another 4-7 years left we don't really need to start worrying about replacements for another 2-3 years.

Until then we just need to find players happy to be back up to them and provide good alternatives to them when they need rest.

[Romford_Red]

Just been having a look at the new kit, if I end up spending £250 on buying a kit for myself and my two small children and then hear Klopp or anyone else at the club tell me we don’t have any money to spend I’m going to put my foot through the fucking TV!

What kind of TV is it?

[Chris~]

Its only the front three where this is a sort of concern. The defence and keeper are fine. The midfield do have Henderson and Wijnaldum but then we have Fabinho and Keita there so the drop off isnt stark at all.

It'd be less of a problem if if Keita or Chamberlain had been able to stay fit enough/perform to be a geuine alternative. If They can, or Jones develops enough then yeah it's less of an issue. At the moment though henderson and wijnaldum especially play a lot more than those looking to take their place in the squad.

[CraigDS]

We’ve also had to pay for a £50m training complex. We don’t seem to have taken out a loan for this....

I suspect we’ve used the facility we had in place as there was lots of this available at the last set of accounts. Think this is up for renewal in the coming months though and we may be looking to pay it down I guess.

[JackWard33]

I agree. We could easily have a good for 4 to 7 years out of them.

The closet I have seen to Mane and Salah is Robben and Ribery at Bayern. They both joined Bayern at 25 and 24. They then stayed till they were 35 and 36

Yup and they massively declined during that time

It’s an interesting question as to whether players can have longer peaks now - the data doesn’t reflect that and I’d be wary of assuming our forwards will be an exception to the age curve - you’d be planning around the hope of a positive exception

They obviously could be - they could also fall off a cliff ...that’s the point about averages there are outliers either way
There is reason to be optimistic with Mane and Salah and even when they decline they’ll be effective (like Robben was hopefully) but their decline from their current peak will happen

The other problem we’ll have as we’ll have with our other key players is contracts and wages
The next contract Mane and Salah sign is one where a) they’ll want a pay rise based on their world class status b) other teams will give them that and more and c) that contract will pay for some of their decline

I genuinely think it’s an extremely difficult problem for the club... a high class problem for sure ... but tough really tough to balance continued sporting excellence with the longer term health of the club and its finite resources

[Romford_Red]

.

On another note just read that "LFC face competition for Thiago as PSG prepare a bid" - seems all this is agent talk now. No team takes yonks to prepare a bid, less so PSG or in fact LFC. We simply bid

What is the more advanced position for a transfer? Being 'Poised' to make a bid, or 'Preparing' to make one?

I'm not down with the modern vernacular.

[So… Howard Philips]

We did, we got £20 million odd each for Solanke and Sakho and £12 million for Ward and a few fringers like Lucas and Kevin Stewart.

We still spent over £100 million net in a year though. So it points to a ‘when we need to spend and it’s sensible to do so, we will’ rather than this often mentioned ‘we need to sell to buy’ fantasy. Which is backed up by us signing Werner until COVID happened.

Didn't we basically swap Stewart and a handful of beans for Robertson?

[So… Howard Philips]

What is the more advanced position for a transfer? Being 'Poised' to make a bid, or 'Preparing' to make one?

I'm not down with the modern vernacular.

Don't forget 'monitoring' as in Everton 'monitoring' ....insert unlikely candidate's name here.

[Sheer Magnetism]

What people are forgetting when they talk about forwards playing into their 30's is that their mobility significantly drops which means they need to play alongside faster, more mobile players. It doesn't work if your whole front line is ageing at the same time. This plan will also likely necessitate paying top dollar for proven forwards in three or four years time while buying from a position of weakness.

[CraigDS]

What people are forgetting when they talk about forwards playing into their 30's is that their mobility significantly drops which means they need to play alongside faster, more mobile players. It doesn't work if your whole front line is ageing at the same time.

Assuming their mobility does drop. There are cases where this isn’t the case.