Topic: Russia launches invasion of Ukraine (*) & use spoiler tags for anything graphic!

[Twelfth Man]

He is taking on punt on gold, hoping this will help Russia be less reliant on natural resources and have some sovereignty if an economic cataclysm happens.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-10/putin-turns-black-gold-into-bullion-as-russia-out-buys-world.html

[viteslesrouges]

And there was me thinking Putin had Europe by the economic short and curlies.  Instead it looks like he just lost the economic war.  Let's hope that he doesn't see the only solution as to double down on his military bet.

Cold war economics fucked the USSR and it looks like Russia has indeed lost or is seriously losing this 2014 version.

I can't see them tumbling down without some shit flying about though.

Net result is ordinary folk in all countries will suffer.

[TepidT2O]

Is this the reason OPEC is keeping supply short?

When prices go back up it will ease the situation of course.

[The Gulleysucker]

Is this the reason OPEC is keeping supply short?

That's quite probably largely the Saudi's trying to stuff Iran.

[TepidT2O]

That's quite probably largely the Saudi's trying to stuff Iran.

Hadn't thought of that.

Maybe two birds with one stone.

The oil price is unsustainable though. Saudi and the UAE need  higher prices to balance their budgets.  Clearly not as high as Russia, but still, it can't go on.

[viteslesrouges]

Hadn't thought of that.

Maybe two birds with one stone.

The oil price is unsustainable though. Saudi and the UAE need  higher prices to balance their budgets.  Clearly not as high as Russia, but still, it can't go on.

A guy on Bloomberg yesterday was saying that exact thing, hitting Russia and Iran with one brick. Plus it makes US generated shale gas more marketable, I think.

An economic war is preferable to a shooting one, I'm sure people would rather live a shitty life in a Russian or Iranian village than be buried in it's cemetery, obviously the preferred route would be neither but that's not going to happen is it?

[B0151?]

And there was me thinking Putin had Europe by the economic short and curlies.  Instead it looks like he just lost the economic war.  Let's hope that he doesn't see the only solution as to double down on his military bet.

Yeah, I don't know much, but worry that this might just make him more likely to do fucked up shit. The 'sticking it to the EU and America' thing seems to be rather popular domestically.

[TepidT2O]

US shale gas is being hit hard at the moment though isn't it? 

I would imagine the strike price for shale gas is really quite high. 

[Libertine]

US shale gas is being hit hard at the moment though isn't it? 

I would imagine the strike price for shale gas is really quite high. 

nice article on this in the Economist last week:
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21635472-economics-oil-have-changed-some-businesses-will-go-bust-market-will-be

A guy on Bloomberg yesterday was saying that exact thing, hitting Russia and Iran with one brick.

Punishment for supporting Assad. A dish served cold indeed....

[TepidT2O]

Cheers, interesting article.

[Tomo!]

Sure I read somewhere last week that the falling oil price could actually benefit the larger oil producing nations like Saudi etc as it'll in turn make shale less economical and there well placed to take the initial hit .


Russia are fucked though.

[Jonny-B]

Two schools of thought. The Saudi's are full on punishing Iran and Russia over Syria. Or they're trying to at least stop the expansion of Shale Gas in the states. Once Brent Crude hits about $50 Shale Gas becomes uneconomical. Its most likely a bit of both.

Its probably a bit of both. The US will likely be happy to take the short term hit on the Shale (the wells will be mothballed and then immediately turned on when the price goes back up) The US will be looking at ever cheaper ways of getting the oil out of the ground though.

The Saudi's have endless cash reserve and can keep the price as low as they want for as long as they want to realise their aims.

Interesting fact: The SNPs budget projections for independence were for a Brent Crude price of about $100. Yikes.

[Red Beret]

I remember the first gulf war and everybody shitting themselves at the prospect of oil hitting $20 a barrel.  How times change.

[viteslesrouges]

Oops.

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/12/vladimir-putin-accuses-speech-impediment-journalist-of-being-drunk/

Vladimir Putin accuses speech impediment journalist of being drunk.



Is that a sign of the times that RT might be seen here criticising Putin?

[kavah]

Was his dead-long tv address today a sort of filibuster/diversion to stop everyone going down the currency exchange shop?

What's he going to do tomorrow?

[dalarr]

Was his dead-long tv address today a sort of filibuster/diversion to stop everyone going down the currency exchange shop?

What's he going to do tomorrow?

Go hunting on horseback with no shirt on?

[TheTeflonJohn]

Go hunting on horseback with no shirt on?

To protect his angry bear?

[El_Pistolero]

Was his dead-long tv address today a sort of filibuster/diversion to stop everyone going down the currency exchange shop?

What's he going to do tomorrow?

He does it every year, doesn't he? This year's was relatively short compared to previous years I think.

[HarryLabrador]

He does it every year, doesn't he? This year's was relatively short compared to previous years I think.

Yes, I really admire him for that. Would love to see Cameron do this.

[viteslesrouges]

Yes, I really admire him for that. Would love to see Cameron do this.

I'd love never to see Cameron's smug bastard face ever again.

[Conocinico]

I like to hear both sides and usually believe neither. I find the truth often lies somewhere in the middle.

So on that dialectic note.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/VT085isnyB0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/VT085isnyB0</a>

That video is only a part of this longer version but it ties in with the recent conversation in this thread which is why I posted it separately.

In the full interview Fyodorov explains what he believes the US strategy is in the region and goes on to predict World War III within the next year or so.

In a long video-interview from May 2014, Fyodorov predicted a violent coup d´etat in Moscow and Russia within a couple of years, organized by the Western powers, this is, a US-EU funded "color revolution", (as those previously taking place in Georgia or Ukraine), with collaboration from a local "5th Column". The aim of such a "revolution" would be the grabbing of Russia´s natural resources, after destroying the federation as such, which would lead to a dramatic population reduction, as a result of civil war, famine, etc, "like it happened with the American Indians". This would take place as a continuation of NATO´s policy towards the former Warsaw Pact countries. However, he stated, newly-born People´s Republics in Donetsk and Lugansk (collectively also known as Novorossia) were a hindrance to NATO strategy and a sign of popular reaction against US-EU´s imperialism, able to encourage other former URSS citizens in Ukraine to break free from the Kiev government, and turn the course of events away from Western world dominance. Fedorov also said that genocide and terror, sponsored by NATO, were taking place in Ukraine to a much larger extent than generally thought, using foreign mercenaries and Neo-nazis to terrorize and subdue the local population. Mr Fedorov said that his mass movement PLM (People´s Liberation Movement, sometimes known as NLM, National Liberation Movement) had 100.000 members.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Alexeyevich_Fyodorov

Full video:

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/x0zRD-Ulv2s" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/x0zRD-Ulv2s</a>

EDIT: They're two separate interviews actually, taken six months apart.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Fyodorov is a complete wing-nut. Nothing about him or his views represents an attempt at balance.

[Yorkykopite]

I like to hear both sides and usually believe neither. I find the truth often lies somewhere in the middle.

Interesting approach to life. Based on that principle you must find yourself taking up some strange positions.

[Conocinico]

Interesting approach to life. Based on that principle you must find yourself taking up some strange positions.

I find it tiring normally. Saying that, I've never been averse to strange.

[Jshooters]

Interesting approach to life. Based on that principle you must find yourself taking up some strange positions.

Without wanting to speak for the poster you quoted, isn't it the case that the opposite sides to a debate/conflict will put forward their own interpretation/spin to the facts and therefore an objective view from an outsider might be one that distrusts both sides of the argument?

[Gnurglan]

After hearing about the Saudis, things got quite different for me. The way I understand it, Saudi want to punish Iran. Iran have ties with Syria and Russia have decided to stand on Assad's side. Nasty. The problem I have with the Saudis is they are funding the loons of IS. And friends I have from Syria much prefer Assad. They were against the whole idea of overthrowing him, long before it started. Because he wasn't great, but with him in power, their relatives were safe. Now it's open season on them. And all of them support Putin for standing up against the rest of the world. They knew what was gonna happen and it still surprises me that the West didn't. Or didn't care.

Putin is clearly not a likable man. Russian airplanes and ships are quite aggressive in the Baltic sea at the moment. Swedish military and civilian aircraft have had to deal with it recently. Having read Politovskaya's book about his regime is rather enlightening. Putin makes Al Capone look like a model citizen.

But if I had to pick sides, Putin or the Saudis, then I go with Putin. And it doesn't please me that it could be their making that causes an economic crisis in Russia. With everything that follows from it. My guess is it will force Putin to appear strong. And the last thing we need is a desperate Putin.

[Conocinico]

Fyodorov is a complete wing-nut. Nothing about him or his views represents an attempt at balance.

He understands economics, which, imo, is all that really matters if you're discussing the Russian economy.

In April 2005, he was appointed Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Budget and Taxation. Was a member of the working (tripartite) group on improving intergovernmental relations in the Russian Federation, a member of the State Duma Commission on the Review of the federal budget allocated to defense and national security of the Russian Federation .

In November 2006, Fyodorov was appointed Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Entrepreneurship and Tourism, and was also selected as a member of the State Duma Commission on the implementation of the annual addresses of the President to the Parliament.

Member of the Council on Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship under the Government of Russia, a member of the Government Commission on the development of small and medium-sized businesses, a member of the Government Commission to ensure the implementation of measures to prevent the bankruptcy of strategic enterprises and organizations as well as organizations of military-industrial complex, a member of the Government Commission on investment projects of national importance, a member of the supervisory board of Rusnano, Chairman of the Commission on the EurAsEC customs and border Policy.

In 2011 he was elected to the State Duma of the fifth convocation of the party United Russia and was appointed Chairman of the Committee on Economic Policy and Entrepreneurship. Since 2011, coordinates the activities of the national liberation movement in Russia, and in 2013 was elected as chairman of the factional groups in the State Duma of the Russian Federation "For sovereignty"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Alexeyevich_Fyodorov

Make no mistake, he didn't get selected as an advisor on economic policy because he was a "wingnut", no matter how comforting that idea is.

[Max_powers]

He understands economics, which, imo, is all that really matters if you're discussing the Russian economy.

So all of Russia's economic troubles are the responsibility of west? Europe and other western nations don't owe Russia anything, so if Russian government isn't that cooperative with them politically then they can choose to put economic sanctions on Russia. This isn't some global conspiracy to conquer Russia, its just simple cause and effect.

The drop in price of Oil and sanctions on the economy will hurt Russia and Economic hardship can result in people revolting or protesting but this has got nothing to do with Russia's natural resources. They had access to Russian natural resources regardless through trade. If anything sanctions and political unrest will hurt Industry in Russia and few natural resources will find there way to Europe.

[Twelfth Man]

After hearing about the Saudis, things got quite different for me. The way I understand it, Saudi want to punish Iran. Iran have ties with Syria and Russia have decided to stand on Assad's side. Nasty. The problem I have with the Saudis is they are funding the loons of IS. And friends I have from Syria much prefer Assad. They were against the whole idea of overthrowing him, long before it started. Because he wasn't great, but with him in power, their relatives were safe. Now it's open season on them. And all of them support Putin for standing up against the rest of the world. They knew what was gonna happen and it still surprises me that the West didn't. Or didn't care.

They knew. Divide and conquer, why change a winning formula? Turmoil in the region suits the all-powerful western multinationals, perfect opportunity to carve out swathes of a vital region for themselves. Perhaps, this is too cynical, but this is how it works. Keep them fighting between themselves, pick off whatever you can during the malaise.

[Lotus Eater]

They knew. Divide and conquer, why change a winning formula? Turmoil in the region suits the all-powerful western multinationals, perfect opportunity to carve out swathes of a vital region for themselves. Perhaps, this is too cynical, but this is how it works. Keep them fighting between themselves, pick off whatever you can during the malaise.

I think it's more to do with incompetence of the West; but I can be naive on things like this.

[kcbworth]

Couldn't have happened to a nicer totalitarian KGB thug.

I do feel for many of the millions or Russians who want no part in his bullshit though.

[Red Beret]

The days where one nation invaded another are long gone.  Why bother when your corporations can virtually buy huge swatches of the country in question?

[TepidT2O]

The days where one nation invaded another are long gone.  Why bother when your corporations can virtually buy huge swatches of the country in question?

A centuries old tactic.

See the British in India

[Yorkykopite]

A centuries old tactic.

See the British in India

Or before them, the Mughals in India.

[Red Beret]

Or how Antonio López de Santa Anna kept selling strips of Mexico to the US.

[Twelfth Man]

Or before them, the Mughals in India.

Lets not forget the Romans! where the term originally derives from. And I'm sure our hunter-gatherer brethren also partook in a bit of divide & conquer.

[kcbworth]

The days where one nation invaded another are long gone.  Why bother when your corporations can virtually buy huge swatches of the country in question?

Are you trying to lecture Putin about his behaviour in Ukraine?

[Red Beret]

Are you trying to lecture Putin about his behaviour in Ukraine?

No?  I'm highlighting how global capitalism can virtually buy the economy of a nation and then shut it down.

[Yorkykopite]

No?  I'm highlighting how global capitalism can virtually buy the economy of a nation and then shut it down.

Although you'll agree that Putin very recently did an astonishing old-fashioned land grab in Crimea?

[Red Beret]

Although you'll agree that Putin very recently did an astonishing old-fashioned land grab in Crimea?

Ah well, that's about a concept of political influence rather than economic influence.  I can't comment on whether Putin does or does not grasp the shifting economic sands but I think it's being demonstrated to him that controlling territory is pointless when outsiders can control your economy.  Of course when your economy is 90% oil based the lesson can be sharper and swifter.

As a side note, I imagine most of the countries within Russia's "sphere of influence" likely detest them so Putin has a bit of a cheek being hacked off if those countries now want to lean further to the West.