Topic: Mohamed Salah - Best in the World *

[Dr Stu-Pid]

He's having an immense season, should have won player of the year, should have won the Ballon D'or, but underlying numbers dont trump actual numbers (which show a pretty stark drop off in production since he came back from the AFCON).

No, but underlying numbers are more predictive of future performance that actual numbers.  I'd be more worried if his underlying numbers were down than his actual numbers being down.

Plus, as rightly pointed out, actual numbers sometimes drive a narrative that simply isn't true.  For example:

I’d argue his ability to beat his man one vs one has dipped a fair bit as well personally.

His 'players dribbled past per 90 minutes' stat on FBREF dropped from 2.29 pre AFCON all the way down to 2.27 post AFCON.

But once players see a dip in their 'actual' numbers then people start looking for reasons and faults, and often find things that aren't actually there.  I've lost count of the times I've read comments like "Salah looks lost out there" or "Salah looks like he won a competition to play for Liverpool", when his underlying performances really haven't changed that much.  The 'eye test' that people love to mention lies to us far more than numbers ever will.

[Stockholm Syndrome]

No, but underlying numbers are more predictive of future performance that actual numbers.  I'd be more worried if his underlying numbers were down than his actual numbers being down.

Plus, as rightly pointed out, actual numbers sometimes drive a narrative that simply isn't true.  For example:

His 'players dribbled past per 90 minutes' stat on FBREF dropped from 2.29 pre AFCON all the way down to 2.27 post AFCON.

But once players see a dip in their 'actual' numbers then people start looking for reasons and faults, and often find things that aren't actually there.  I've lost count of the times I've read comments like "Salah looks lost out there" or "Salah looks like he won a competition to play for Liverpool", when his underlying performances really haven't changed that much.  The 'eye test' that people love to mention lies to us far more than numbers ever will.

A big thing I think with it is that he was so good pre-Afcon that teams went ham on marking him. He dribbles past a player and has 2 to 3 players still marking him. But by contrast, Mane's numbers went up post AFCON, and Diaz was impressive too. I think it is no coincidence; more people mark Salah, the less they pay attention to the other world class stars we have.

I do think he is quite exhausted mentally more than anything, but he still looks class (if not AS class as he was earlier in the season), but I think there definitely has been a more concentrated effort to mark him out of games, which leaves more gaps for the other brilliant attackers we have.

[SamLad]

So is the argument here that fatigue effects finishing?
Because that’s the only significant difference in his performance level

Of course it does ... physical, mental, emotional fatigue all play a role.  You're saying they aren't relevant?

[Black Bull Nova]

He's having an immense season, should have won player of the year, should have won the Ballon D'or, but underlying numbers dont trump actual numbers (which show a pretty stark drop off in production since he came back from the AFCON).

The first half of the season had him deservedly named best player in the world, the 2nd, by his standards has been disappointing (5 goals from open play plus 3 penalties, we've scored 72 goals since the turn of the year). Had he led Egypt to AFCON and the WC and carried over his form he would have cemented his place as the best player in the world. He's still brilliant but he's with Trent, Diaz, Mane, Thiago, Fabinho, Allison as just one more great player again. That might change tomorrow and I think what happens then will help shape his perception and future somewhat.


Still love the man, whatever, just want him around, I hate it when the big clubs covet our players.

[jckliew]

I hope his great form of the 1st half of the season appears in the final tonight. Goes past 4 defenders and slots the ball in, adding to the 2 goals by Lucho Diaz and Sadio.

[JackWard33]

Of course it does ... physical, mental, emotional fatigue all play a role.  You're saying they aren't relevant?

To finishing specifically … rather than being in position to finish? … I doubt it has any effect
(If it does why is Mane on a hot finishing streak post afcon)
Finishing has a lot of variance but reverts to the mean - Salah ran hot in the first half of the season, cold in the second (he’s still finishing well across the season, a bit above xg)… so the narrative is he’s tired but if he is it’s not showing up where you’d expect it to

[Samie]

Well this is the day he's been waiting for. Turn up today Mo.

[SamLad]

To finishing specifically … rather than being in position to finish? … I doubt it has any effect
(If it does why is Mane on a hot finishing streak post afcon)
Finishing has a lot of variance but reverts to the mean - Salah ran hot in the first half of the season, cold in the second (he’s still finishing well across the season, a bit above xg)… so the narrative is he’s tired but if he is it’s not showing up where you’d expect it to

could you try that again, I don't get your point (seriously).

how can emotional / mental tiredness "show up" other than in a drop in performance?

edit: mental / emotional tiredness would be expected to vary from player to player, so Mane not being affected by it as much means very little imo.

(not sure if we're talking past each other)

[redmark]

could you try that again, I don't get your point (seriously).

how can emotional / mental tiredness "show up" other than in a drop in performance?

edit: mental / emotional tiredness would be expected to vary from player to player, so Mane not being affected by it as much means very little imo.

(not sure if we're talking past each other)

I think Jack's point is that the stats suggest (number of shots, touches inside area, etc.) that he is getting into those positions - actually more than he did in the first half of the season - so there isn't a decline in physical performance. My point in an earlier post in response to Jack's, is that those stats also suggest (increase in number of shots, smaller increase in XG, not to mention G/A) a drop-off in decision making, i.e. a possible mental/emotional performance impact.

[Jm55]

No, but underlying numbers are more predictive of future performance that actual numbers.  I'd be more worried if his underlying numbers were down than his actual numbers being down.

Plus, as rightly pointed out, actual numbers sometimes drive a narrative that simply isn't true.  For example:

His 'players dribbled past per 90 minutes' stat on FBREF dropped from 2.29 pre AFCON all the way down to 2.27 post AFCON.

But once players see a dip in their 'actual' numbers then people start looking for reasons and faults, and often find things that aren't actually there.  I've lost count of the times I've read comments like "Salah looks lost out there" or "Salah looks like he won a competition to play for Liverpool", when his underlying performances really haven't changed that much.  The 'eye test' that people love to mention lies to us far more than numbers ever will.

Thanks - interesting that.

The difference felt far vaster than a paltry 0.2%!

[JackWard33]

I think Jack's point is that the stats suggest (number of shots, touches inside area, etc.) that he is getting into those positions - actually more than he did in the first half of the season - so there isn't a decline in physical performance. My point in an earlier post in response to Jack's, is that those stats also suggest (increase in number of shots, smaller increase in XG, not to mention G/A) a drop-off in decision making, i.e. a possible mental/emotional performance impact.

Yup to the first point - that’s my point and what his metrics show
I genuinely don’t know on the second point but it’s possible

[SamLad]

Yup to the first point - that’s my point and what his metrics show

okay, so we seem to be in agreement on that.

I genuinely don’t know on the second point but it’s possible

which is what I've been trying to say.  you can't know for sure, nobody can, maybe even Mo would find it difficult to put his finger on it. it's unmeasurable.

but - to me - it's indisputable that players get mentally / emotionally tired.  they're human, under constant stress, in the public eye, trying to perform at their peak constantly.  something's got to give, and if it's not physicality ... what else could it be?

note: I'm not trying to be an argumentative.  I just find that mental burnout isn't given the attention it deserves. too often when a player loses form, you hear "he's paid not to get tired" "he isn't trying hard enough" and similar crap.

[redmark]

okay, so we seem to be in agreement on that.

which is what I've been trying to say.  you can't know for sure, nobody can, maybe even Mo would find it difficult to put his finger on it. it's unmeasurable.

but - to me - it's indisputable that players get mentally / emotionally tired.  they're human, under constant stress, in the public eye, trying to perform at their peak constantly.  something's got to give, and if it's not physicality ... what else could it be?

note: I'm not trying to be an argumentative.  I just find that mental burnout isn't given the attention it deserves. too often when a player loses form, you hear "he's paid not to get tired" "he isn't trying hard enough" and similar crap.

Reminds me of baseball sabermetrics proponents arguing that there is no evidence for 'clutch' players in the statistics (caveat: sample sizes), ignoring the apparently obvious fact that in any walk of life, some people deal better with pressure than others. That, of course, is a discussion on a 'permanent' or long term mental/emotional state; but I agree, surely mental fatigue/disappointment/tension may affect an otherwise 'clutch' finisher at certain points in a career or season. Salah having some negative emotional reaction to AFCON and WC qualifier would be entirely human.

[JackWard33]

Reminds me of baseball sabermetrics proponents arguing that there is no evidence for 'clutch' players in the statistics (caveat: sample sizes), ignoring the apparently obvious fact that in any walk of life, some people deal better with pressure than others. That, of course, is a discussion on a 'permanent' or long term mental/emotional state; but I agree, surely mental fatigue/disappointment/tension may affect an otherwise 'clutch' finisher at certain points in a career or season. Salah having some negative emotional reaction to AFCON and WC qualifier would be entirely human.

But why would it affect finishing specifically?
I'm always fascinated by the amount of narrative finishing attracts - because of course its the most important bit, its the putting the ball in the net... but it happens in an instant.
However we know (provably) that it reverts to a mean and that even the worlds best finishers are only able to out pace the mean by a small margin
I'm sure most of us have played at some level and this makes sense as there really isn't much time for wider thoughts when you have a chance to score

When you drill down this argument its 'he's feeling down from his recent losses so his thousands of hours of practise is trumped (in a split second by the way) by those negative emotions causing him to miss or put it too close to the keeper'
I'm not saying its impossible... but it feels like a retro fitted narrative that's part of the 'fooled by randomness' that humans are subject too (streaks of results happen... we seek to explain them and fit events to do that)

Fascinating topic

[SamLad]

But why would it affect finishing specifically?
I'm always fascinated by the amount of narrative finishing attracts - because of course its the most important bit, its the putting the ball in the net... but it happens in an instant.
However we know (provably) that it reverts to a mean and that even the worlds best finishers are only able to out pace the mean by a small margin
I'm sure most of us have played at some level and this makes sense as there really isn't much time for wider thoughts when you have a chance to score

When you drill down this argument its 'he's feeling down from his recent losses so his thousands of hours of practise is trumped (in a split second by the way) by those negative emotions causing him to miss or put it too close to the keeper'
I'm not saying its impossible... but it feels like a retro fitted narrative

if we've established that it's not physicality ... and you're positing that it's not mental .... what's left?

[JackWard33]

if we've established that it's not physicality ... and you're positing that it's not mental .... what's left?

Variance - the cause of almost all finishing streaks
(as I posted before if you strip out narrative Salah's finishing has reverted to mean across the season, ie hes slightly above xg)

[redmark]

But why would it affect finishing specifically?
I'm always fascinated by the amount of narrative finishing attracts - because of course its the most important bit, its the putting the ball in the net... but it happens in an instant.
However we know (provably) that it reverts to a mean and that even the worlds best finishers are only able to out pace the mean by a small margin
I'm sure most of us have played at some level and this makes sense as there really isn't much time for wider thoughts when you have a chance to score

When you drill down this argument its 'he's feeling down from his recent losses so his thousands of hours of practise is trumped (in a split second by the way) by those negative emotions causing him to miss or put it too close to the keeper'
I'm not saying its impossible... but it feels like a retro fitted narrative that's part of the 'fooled by randomness' that humans are subject too (streaks of results happen... we seek to explain them and fit events to do that)

Fascinating topic

It wouldn't/doesn't affect finishing specifically - but a) we're talking about Salah (specifically, his goals return) and that's what he does and b) it's probably the most specific/objective area of football statistics.

To step back from the specifics then, the proposition fundamentally is that 'mental state' (fatigue, 'confidence', disappointment, etc.) affects decision making. I think we see this all over a football pitch; but in many examples, it's less easily measured. When a player lacks confidence or is mentally fatigued, he can hesitate on the ball, make a 'tired pass', lose concentration and let his man gain a yard, or any number of other micro-errors players make in a game.

Finishing, perhaps, is one of the aspects of football most dependent on mental state. Once a player has got into position (mainly physical, plus awareness of space and movement), the ability to then finish a chance isn't very physical, at all. Any professional footballer with the physical strength to get into a shooting position can kick a ball 8 or 12 yards. What becomes primary - what differentiates Salah from Lukaku, or Kane from Werner, or whatever - are the mental aspects.

Should he take the shot, or pick out a better placed teammate? When should he take the shot? Where should he direct the shot? What type of shot?

This is all mental (plus the technical ability to execute). A moment's hesitation, a lack of confidence, trying to force things - all impact the decision making process, which is taking place in milliseconds. So I'd argue 'mental state' doesn't affect finishing 'specifically', but it does affect it significantly and, I think, more dramatically than just about every other aspect of a footballer's game.

Back to Salah's stats - yes, it could be variance. The increase in the number of shots is large enough to appear statistically significant, though - and that increase I think suggests a shift in decision making, in shooting at less opportune moments (the difference between increase in shots vs increase in XG). Identifying any impact on shot selection (type/direction) and execution/timing is more subjective (and more work than I care to do), but would be a natural, logical extension of the point.


edit: on the point about 'narrative' - well, there's often a kernel of truth in many old wives tales. One of the most common remarks when a striker is in a goal drought (and we're not talking about a drought for Salah, just some possible dip) is that "he's trying too hard". I think Salah has probably just been trying too hard, to make up for those disappointments (and to secure the golden boot).

[JackWard33]

It wouldn't/doesn't affect finishing specifically - but a) we're talking about Salah (specifically, his goals return) and that's what he does and b) it's probably the most specific/objective area of football statistics.

To step back from the specifics then, the proposition fundamentally is that 'mental state' (fatigue, 'confidence', disappointment, etc.) affects decision making. I think we see this all over a football pitch; but in many examples, it's less easily measured. When a player lacks confidence or is mentally fatigued, he can hesitate on the ball, make a 'tired pass', lose concentration and let his man gain a yard, or any number of other micro-errors players make in a game.

Finishing, perhaps, is one of the aspects of football most dependent on mental state. Once a player has got into position (mainly physical, plus awareness of space and movement), the ability to then finish a chance isn't very physical, at all. Any professional footballer with the physical strength to get into a shooting position can kick a ball 8 or 12 yards. What becomes primary - what differentiates Salah from Lukaku, or Kane from Werner, or whatever - are the mental aspects.

Should he take the shot, or pick out a better placed teammate? When should he take the shot? Where should he direct the shot? What type of shot?

This is all mental (plus the technical ability to execute). A moment's hesitation, a lack of confidence, trying to force things - all impact the decision making process, which is taking place in milliseconds. So I'd argue 'mental state' doesn't affect finishing 'specifically', but it does affect it significantly and, I think, more dramatically than just about every other aspect of a footballer's game.

Back to Salah's stats - yes, it could be variance. The increase in the number of shots is large enough to appear statistically significant, though - and that increase I think suggests a shift in decision making, in shooting at less opportune moments (the difference between increase in shots vs increase in XG). Identifying any impact on shot selection (type/direction) and execution/timing is more subjective (and more work than I care to do), but would be a natural, logical extension of the point.


edit: on the point about 'narrative' - well, there's often a kernel of truth in many old wives tales. One of the most common remarks when a striker is in a goal drought (and we're not talking about a drought for Salah, just some possible dip) is that "he's trying too hard". I think Salah has probably just been trying too hard, to make up for those disappointments (and to secure the golden boot).

Yeah I get the argument and as I said I can see it could be possible - there just isn’t any factual data to back it up but there is data to back up the idea that finishing reverts to mean
So the difference between narrative and analytics is that analytics has a good shot at being predictive
If you’d have asked an analyst what would happen to Salahs finishing in the second half of the season before he went to afcon he’d have been able to tell you there’s a great chance he’d ‘cool off’ and get closer to the mean

Narrative is always retro fit ie Manes finishing slump in the first half of the season was said to be due to him being in decline, his hot run post afcon is due to his position move and/or his confidence from winning a penalty shoot out or two  … but when we look at his season it’s almost identical to his last two in underlying numbers and his finishing is bang on his xg

Doesn’t mean things always end up like that over a seaosn but we know the amount of variance / deviation were operating in
We’re going round in circles a bit but I guess it comes down to whether you think a players ability to put it in the net (not get in the position in the first place) varies based on their mental state. I’d argue we’ve got a huge amount of mean reverting data that shows us if it does it’s only at the extremes and so it’s more likely to not be the cause of a finishing slump

[redmark]

We’re going round in circles a bit but I guess it comes down to whether you think a players ability to put it in the net (not get in the position in the first place) varies based on their mental state. I’d argue we’ve got a huge amount of mean reverting data that shows us if it does it’s only at the extremes and so it’s more likely to not be the cause of a finishing slump

But over any period of time long enough to provide a decent sample size, a player's mental state will also revert to the mean - except in extreme cases (a player in an extreme slump like Benteke for a couple of years, say - when he did underperform on G vs XG). The two things aren't contradictory. Goals-to-XG reverting to the mean therefore doesn't necessarily tell us anything about whether mental state is a significant factor on finishing ability: but mental state, potentially, is a factor in (relatively short term) variations from the mean.

In some ways, I'm not sure this is controversial. Sports visualisation and relentless practice are designed to make the successful outcome be visualised, expected, instinctive (almost). Why does the club emphasise the 'mentality monsters'? Why do we invest in the involvement of Neuro11?

Klopp: “The neuro11 team has developed a highly innovative and fact-based mental strength training method that can be seamlessly integrated into our existing training program. We are now able to specifically train the mental and shot-precision abilities of our players directly on the pitch, in a way that wasn’t possible for us until now. Since mental strength plays such an important role at the highest level, we‘re excited about working together with these guys.“

If we've identified the positives of this - 'to train the mental and shot-precision abilities of our players' - isn't it logical that any negative impact on mentality has a corresponding impact on performance? Not just on finishing, of course, but certainly including it as one particular aspect of play (which can be measured in relative isolation) significantly requiring rapid and sound decision making?

[Cozzymoto]

When we needed our talisman the most, he went missing for most of the game. If this was his idea of revenge, his form showed like he’s been playing the 2nd half of the season, just coasting.

[stevieG786]

Had a decent game today I thought, unlucky not to score a brace if it wasn’t for their keeper having a worldie

[stevieG786]

When we needed our talisman the most, he went missing for most of the game. If this was his idea of revenge, his form showed like he’s been playing the 2nd half of the season, just coasting.

Huh. He was our best attacker

[CalgarianRed]

The ball control and dribble for his chance was unreal. But a disappointing game otherwise.

[groove]

Had one of those games he has occasionally where he couldn't trap a bag of sand. Got some good shots away though. A performance of contrasts.

[Zlen]

What? Had a great game? Ok, yeah sure. Thought he was mediocre aside from that touch near the end. Spent first 30 minutes with balls just bouncing off him.

[JasonF]

Saw a couple of shouts in the post match game that this should be his last game for us. Some people don't deserve nice things.

He's said he'll be here next season and I'm sure he'll bounce back, as they all will be looking to. On another day he'd have had a couple of goals tonight, it just wasn't to be.

[jillcwhomever]

The usual ones slagging him off,  nothing new.

[palimpsest]

Saw a couple of shouts in the post match game that this should be his last game for us. Some people don't deserve nice things.

He's said he'll be here next season and I'm sure he'll bounce back, as they all will be looking to. On another day he'd have had a couple of goals tonight, it just wasn't to be.

Of course he'll bounce back and all the people slagging him off now will look like the fools they are. The lads gave us an amazing season and they're all over this board talking about "an end of an era" and calling for a squad refresh in the summer. Unbelievable.

[The G in Gerrard]

The usual ones slagging him off,  nothing new.

Lock the thread he doesn't deserve the crap from some here.

[Chakan]

Think afcon absolutely destroyed his confidence.

[farawayred]

The usual ones slagging him off,  nothing new.

Well, I'm not one of those. But that "revenge" statement came to bite us in the ass. Biased the whole neutral world against us.

[jillcwhomever]

Well, I'm not one of those. But that "revenge" statement came to bite us in the ass. Biased the whole neutral world against us.

It had nothing to do with that. Also, do you think the Mane stuff helped either?

[RedG13]

Think afcon absolutely destroyed his confidence.

I think he need a break after AFCON. He played 4 straight games of 120 minutes there. Which is a insane amount of minutes in a short time.
He was still getting into the right area to score goals etc. Something u just a very bad run of shooting luck.

[farawayred]

It had nothing to do with that. Also, do you think the Mane stuff helped either?

Look at all the articles published on the subject. Who mentions Mane? Only Liverpool sites. Everyone else talks about the revenge. Come on, Jill, you know better.

[stevensr123]

He has been crap since Christmas. If he is gonna talk big to the media which isn’t the Liverpool way, he needs to back it up as well.

[Samie]

Offer him the money we can afford, if he doesn't agree sell him this summer.

[jillcwhomever]

Look at all the articles published on the subject. Who mentions Mane? Only Liverpool sites. Everyone else talks about the revenge. Come on, Jill, you know better.

No, I'm sorry. Salah gets so much shite from certain people and even now I would say a reasonable amount of LFC fans underappreciate him. They take it for granted when he scores and then the moment he doesn't, start making endless shite comments on here. Some of the comments he's had have been disgraceful.

[Fiasco]

He has been crap since Christmas. If he is gonna talk big to the media which isn’t the Liverpool way, he needs to back it up as well.

This really. If you're going to talk the talk then you have to walk the walk. Especially in the biggest club game of all.

[Keith Lard]

Righto Mo, time to sign on the dotted line and focus on becoming a club legend.

[farawayred]

No, I'm sorry. Salah gets so much shite from certain people and even now I would say a reasonable amount of LFC fans underappreciate him. They take it for granted when he scores and then the moment he doesn't, start making endless shite comments on here. Some of the comments he's had have been disgraceful.

I agree with all that. But you can't say that the "revenge" comment was wise, or even warranted.