The Alternative Premier League Table 2013-14
This is a continuation of the last two APLT threads which ran over the last two seasons and can be found here:
2011-12
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13
http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season. This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches. I refer to these as the ‘par results’. As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.
The fixture list below for the top six teams (and Everton) indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.
Unlike the last two seasons, we have a favourable start to the season, with only one par-1 in the first 9 games. This means we don't have any margin for error.
The trickiest part of the season looks like the run from 14th - 28th December, playing away at Spurs, Man City and Chelsea in the space of four fixtures and 14 days. We also have a tricky final quarter, with Spurs, Man City and Chelsea all visiting us at Anfield, with no room for slip ups in the season climax.
Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below). If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.
The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish. Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.
I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.