Topic: Brazil - The next country to fall to the right

[rodderzzz]

Wonder which of our lads voted for Bolsonaro apart from Alisson.

How do you know that Alisson did? Can't see that he's posted that on social media

[Red-Soldier]

I fear for the future of Brazil's Amazon Forest.

[classycarra]

Actually he only got 39% of the vote. 1/3 of the country didn't vote.

Am I right in thinking they get a small fine for not voting? Or is that only in certain states?

[classycarra]

Daniel Hamilton
@danielrhamilton

Votes of Brazilians abroad starting to be announced:

🇬🇧: Bolsonaro 61%, Haddad 39%
🇵🇹: Bolsonaro 64%, Haddad 36%
🇫🇷: Haddad 69%, 31% Bolsonaro
🇮🇱: Bolsonaro 77%, 23% Haddad
🇩🇪: Haddad 74%, 26% Bolsonaro
🇦🇺: Bolsonaro 65%, Haddad 35%
🇨🇭: Bolsonaro 58%, Haddad 42%

Really interesting. Seeing Italy Germany and France there, it's hard not to extrapolate that current domestic politics contributes quite significantly to how you'd vote back in Brazil

[kennedy81]

and the Brazilian left ran the country for most of this millennium, totally fucked up on so many levels and he only got that much

Very true. Populist leaders don't just spring out of nowhere, they thrive on the failings of those who came before them.

Good piece on the state of affairs here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/29/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-left-far-right-change

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Wonder which of our lads voted for Bolsonaro apart from Alisson.

Fabinhos wife follows him and liked a tweet from trump congratulating the win so there’s probably another one

[rodderzzz]

Am I right in thinking they get a small fine for not voting? Or is that only in certain states?

You have to declare why you couldn't vote, otherwise it has implications when you come to renew your passport.

[killer-heels]

How do you know that Alisson did? Can't see that he's posted that on social media

Didnt he tweet a like or something not long ago?

[GreatEx]

Fabinhos wife follows him and liked a tweet from trump congratulating the win so there’s probably another one

Ah well, good game vs. Cardiff, Stan, all the best for the future.

I'll let Alisson slide because Migs.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Very true. Populist leaders don't just spring out of nowhere, they thrive on the failings of those who came before them.

Good piece on the state of affairs here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/29/jair-bolsonaro-brazil-left-far-right-change

cheers for that, so many on the left need to have a good look at why they’re failing right now but some are trying to frame it as fascism or socialism and nothing else which is basically the same scare tactics you’d get from a fascist!

That one country has had a left government for a long time decides to go the total opposite way should really be a wake up call for them, a great opportunity for introspection but I really doubt it amongst a significant number

Ah well, good game vs. Cardiff, Stan, all the best for the future.

I'll let Alisson slide because Migs.

do you think he should vote for the party who totally fucked up because they’re on the left so they can continue to fuck up?

[BoRed]

cheers for that, so many on the left need to have a good look at why they’re failing right now but some are trying to frame it as fascism or socialism and nothing else which is basically the same scare tactics you’d get from a fascist!

That one country has had a left government for a long time decides to go the total opposite way should really be a wake up call for them, a great opportunity for introspection but I really doubt it amongst a significant number

do you think he should vote for the party who totally fucked up because they’re on the left so they can continue to fuck up?

The run-off was a binary choice. I suppose you could frame it as fascism or socialism. So if you're saying not voting for socialism is the correct choice, who are you in fact endorsing?

Also, if you think the left "totally fucked up", wait and see what happens next. When a party is in power for a long time, they start to take the blame for everything, this happens everywhere, and eventually they're voted out (at least in democratic countries). We should stop blaming the left every time the lose an election. Hillary was to blame for Trump being elected, Corbyn is to blame for May being in power, Lula is now to blame for Bolsonaro. Sure, the left isn't perfect, but whenever a fascist gets elected, the bulk of the responsibility lies with those who voted for the fascist. Including those who think the party in power totally fucked up, so they might as well vote for the other guy, whoever he may be.

[OneTouchFooty]

The run-off was a binary choice. I suppose you could frame it as fascism or socialism. So if you're saying not voting for socialism is the correct choice, who are you in fact endorsing?

Also, if you think the left "totally fucked up", wait and see what happens next. When a party is in power for a long time, they start to take the blame for everything, this happens everywhere, and eventually they're voted out (at least in democratic countries). We should stop blaming the left every time the lose an election. Hillary was to blame for Trump being elected, Corbyn is to blame for May being in power, Lula is now to blame for Bolsonaro. Sure, the left isn't perfect, but whenever a fascist gets elected, the bulk of the responsibility lies with those who voted for the fascist. Including those who think the party in power totally fucked up, so they might as well vote for the other guy, whoever he may be.

It’s a common smear tactic, look at Trump and Brexit, when one country hasn’t ever had true left wing governance and the other not in 40+ years yet with rampant right wing, neo-liberalism in both for decades and you get the narrative of the disaffected people who are “fed up” and lashing out at the system... by endorsing another version of that ideology on steroids.

Also, not aimed at you but Hilary Clinton is not fucking left wing, neither was Obama nor is Merkel ffs, which seem to be ignorant views that gain traction. It’s a convenient conflation of leftists/liberals/liberalism/socialism/social democracy as one and the same.

[Indomitable_Carp]

The thing is, Brazil's issues are so much more extreme then anything most other democracies have to deal with. It is in a state of civil war (people call them 'homicides' but 63,000 a year is a civil war), has seen one of the biggest corruption scandals in history (engulfed all the main parties and estimated that politicians, state owned companies and their cronies had siphoned off and laundered up to $10 billion) and they have suffered a severe economic crisis with more then 12% of the country still unemployed. It's hardly rising knife crime and the expenses scandal.

Our issues in Europe and the US are a walk-in-the-park in comparison. Bolsonaro is a scary fucker and his election victory is a disaster, but he can only be understood as a very extreme response to very extreme circumstances. Just like Brexit and Trump, brushing all of his supporters off as idiots, racists and homophobes is unhelpful if we are ever to address why the world is rapidly swinging in a scary direction.

[Giono]

The thing is, Brazil's issues are so much more extreme then anything most other democracies have to deal with. It is in a state of civil war (people call them 'homicides' but 63,000 a year is a civil war), has seen one of the biggest corruption scandals in history (engulfed all the main parties and estimated that politicians, state owned companies and their cronies had siphoned off and laundered up to $10 billion) and they have suffered a severe economic crisis with more then 12% of the country still unemployed. It's hardly rising knife crime and the expenses scandal.

Our issues in Europe and the US are a walk-in-the-park in comparison. Bolsonaro is a scary fucker and his election victory is a disaster, but he can only be understood as a very extreme response to very extreme circumstances. Just like Brexit and Trump, brushing all of his supporters off as idiots, racists and homophobes is unhelpful if we are ever to address why the world is rapidly swinging in a scary direction.

So true.

Fascism took hold in the 1930s and earlier as a response to a changing world. We are seeing similar responses now it seems.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

The thing is, Brazil's issues are so much more extreme then anything most other democracies have to deal with. It is in a state of civil war (people call them 'homicides' but 63,000 a year is a civil war), has seen one of the biggest corruption scandals in history (engulfed all the main parties and estimated that politicians, state owned companies and their cronies had siphoned off and laundered up to $10 billion) and they have suffered a severe economic crisis with more then 12% of the country still unemployed. It's hardly rising knife crime and the expenses scandal.

Our issues in Europe and the US are a walk-in-the-park in comparison. Bolsonaro is a scary fucker and his election victory is a disaster, but he can only be understood as a very extreme response to very extreme circumstances. Just like Brexit and Trump, brushing all of his supporters off as idiots, racists and homophobes is unhelpful if we are ever to address why the world is rapidly swinging in a scary direction.

some on here need to read and digest this fully, especially the last paragraph instead of their usual the lefty/socialist option is always the best one when it’s so untrue, especially in Brazil where it’s totally understandable why decent, rational people would vote for Bolsonaro

[classycarra]

do you think he should vote for the party who totally fucked up because they’re on the left so they can continue to fuck up?

I personally think she should vote for the binary option that is more likely to preserve democracy, human right and environmental, and less likely to lead to a dictatorship.

As we're talking about the presidential election it's worth noting that the current fuck up, Temer, is from a different party to Lula and Haddad - so their lot haven't been in power for two years. So it's not quite as continuous as that.

[classycarra]

some on here need to read and digest this fully, especially the last paragraph instead of their usual the lefty/socialist option is always the best one when it’s so untrue, especially in Brazil where it’s totally understandable why decent, rational people would vote for Bolsonaro

It's important to understand why people would vote for him. But it doesn't make it any less complacent or terrible a decision.

In this binary case, you hold your nose and vote for the party that are currently being punished for their corruption (and are so fucking stupidly campaigning saying they'd release Lula) rather than the guy who is going to lead to congress being dissolved, eroding protections for the rainforest and indigenous people, and pro militarised police having carte blache to kill people to 'tackle crime'.

It's true that not all his supporters are idiots, racists and homophobes - that's a generalisation that isn't necessarily accurate. But an accurate generalisation is that all of his supporters are choosing to support an idiot, a racist and a homophobe.

[BabuYagu]

some on here need to read and digest this fully, especially the last paragraph instead of their usual the lefty/socialist option is always the best one when it’s so untrue, especially in Brazil where it’s totally understandable why decent, rational people would vote for Bolsonaro

Yeah this is it.

I know lots of people voting Bolsonaro. It's the promise of order. Nobody in my family will use public transport here out of fear. One of the primary reasons we moved out of the city is me - the obvious gringo - is a big target for robbery/kidnapping.

This ultimately gives you the feeling of being imprisoned in your own home.

But on the thing of cival war - that isn't really true. The gun violence here is basically traficants. Drug dealers and the police (BOPE) have pitched gun battles regularly. Before the world cup, they went into the favelas and "cleaned them out". This is to make the city safer for tourists for the world cup. The warning was this would just push them into the more suburbs. At the time I lived in the safest city in South America (hence why I chose it). 2 years later I moved house to farmer country where the only gun violence is when some old boy fires a musket at someone on his land 'interfering' with his livestock.

It's one thing saying this on RAWK, anonymously. It's quite another thing when the president says it publically almost baiting the protestors though. The fact the very same woman was a protestor back in the 60's herself and was imprisoned as a result means she really should know better than to pass a law making it illegal to protest.

The protests are getting a reduced coverage now but they are still happening, I can confirm that.

Also, as someone said earlier, the "pacification" of the favelas around the world cup areas has just moved the problems on into other areas. I live in an Niteroi and it's mostly middle class retired people in my neighbourhood. Perfect targets for muggers, pick pockets and purse snatchers which we are now seeing lots of. Apparantly violent crime is down everywhere despite me never seeing any violent crime here until the last few months. I rarely see people on the street now after 6pm. The owner of the pizzeria outside my block of apartments was shot in the head and killed a month ago as he was locking up for the night. Two guys rode up on a shitty motorbike, shot him dead, took the nights cash and bolted.

The world cup has been a fucking nightmare for Brazil. I went from living in the safest city in South America with 3rd best quality of life to being afraid to go into the street with my daughter and no longer going out after last light. Well in Dilma you big haired c*nt.

And all this comes back to one thing - corruption. The wanted the world cup to line their pockets. They were happy to fuck people over to do so. When your actions all start to suggest you are in it for yourself and fuck the people - people vote for someone else.

Lula is the posterboy for corruption here. Haddads message was "I am just like Lula" and "don't vote for Bolsanaro (Ele Não)". That doesn't inspire people to vote for you, it inspires people not to vote - no surprise then 33% of the country didn't in a country where voting is mandatory.

If you are Bolsanaro and want to win an election here, you need to paint the left as all the same. All being part of the same problem. No need... that was Haddad's entire campaign. He did it for you. You also need good people to not vote, just as they do in the US with voter surpression. But he didn't need to do that either, Haddad was literally telling people not to vote in his message.
"Don't think of a blank cat". Too late, now you have
"Don't vote Bolsanaro" - okay we didn't.

[kavah]

One of the primary reasons we moved out of the city is me - the obvious gringo - is a big target for robbery/kidnapping.

You should move to Porto Alegre mate, half of them here look like Alison or Lucas

seriously though what a shit show, the muggers here seem to prefer knifes - fucking big ones, you can't run, one look at that cold steel and you're emptying your pockets and handing over EVERYTHING. Maybe we'll get an uptick in the economy? - here's hoping.

[BabuYagu]

You should move to Porto Alegre mate, half of them here look like Alison or Lucas

seriously though what a shit show, the muggers here seem to prefer knifes - fucking big ones, you can't run, one look at that cold steel and your emptying your pockets and handing over EVERYTHING. Maybe we'll get an uptick in the economy? - here's hoping.

to be honest, I genuinely think I will be okay. I'm white, my income is from overseas, we pay our taxes, our kid is private schooled, and nobody fucking lives here. My bigger worries is nature as I saw an alligator a stone throw from my house last week. But I am not really thinking of me when I say those things - I moved to Brazil because the first day I arrived here, I felt more warmth and kindness from strangers than I did from a lot of people I knew everywhere else I had been in the world. They really are fantastic people here. I don't want to see them get fucked over, it's heart breaking. I understand why they are afraid and won't say a bad word about those voting Bolsanaro. Some people want a solution and the left weren't offering it - they offered a continuation. Bolsanaro is offering to solve all the problems and be hard on everything that people fear - crime, traficants, corruption. But they aren't really seeing the bigger picture - and that isn't a surprise when so many people here don't even have a basic education. How could they?

My real concern would be if it goes back to being a military dictatorship - my kids being drafted into the military - he starts picking war with neighbouring countries. On that last one - our drug problem stems from Colombia. They train and arm the traficants and it's their product being sold. So what if he holds the country accountable? Anything other than that, I can probably ride it out from here. I'll get another big dog, upgrade security at home, maybe convince the aligator to patrol my house at nights in exchange for a slab of steak every morning?

[afc tukrish]

to be honest, I genuinely think I will be okay. I'm white, my income is from overseas, we pay our taxes, our kid is private schooled, and nobody fucking lives here. My bigger worries is nature as I saw an alligator a stone throw from my house last week. But I am not really thinking of me when I say those things - I moved to Brazil because the first day I arrived here, I felt more warmth and kindness from strangers than I did from a lot of people I knew everywhere else I had been in the world. They really are fantastic people here. I don't want to see them get fucked over, it's heart breaking. I understand why they are afraid and won't say a bad word about those voting Bolsanaro. Some people want a solution and the left weren't offering it - they offered a continuation. Bolsanaro is offering to solve all the problems and be hard on everything that people fear - crime, traficants, corruption. But they aren't really seeing the bigger picture - and that isn't a surprise when so many people here don't even have a basic education. How could they?

My real concern would be if it goes back to being a military dictatorship - my kids being drafted into the military - he starts picking war with neighbouring countries. On that last one - our drug problem stems from Colombia. They train and arm the traficants and it's their product being sold. So what if he holds the country accountable? Anything other than that, I can probably ride it out from here. I'll get another big dog, upgrade security at home, maybe convince the aligator to patrol my house at nights in exchange for a slab of steak every morning?

For clarity's sake, "traficants" is translated as drug traffickers?

I googled and got "trafficantes" in Portuguese, is that also correct?

[BabuYagu]

For clarity's sake, "traficants" is translated as drug traffickers?

I googled and got "trafficantes" in Portuguese, is that also correct?

Yes, that's right. Wasn't sure the right word to use in English and "drug dealers" doesn't really paint the right picture for people of what they are.

Having lived in Northern Ireland and seen paramilitaries up close, that is basically what we have here. Military trained and equipped criminals who make the vast majority of their money off the drug trade having an open war in the streets against the police. Just with shorts and sandals instead of balaclavas and flak-jackets.

BOPE, despite being police, are more like the SAS. (Tropa Elite is a good film on them, if interested).

[afc tukrish]

Yes, that's right. Wasn't sure the right word to use in English and "drug dealers" doesn't really paint the right picture for people of what they are.

Having lived in Northern Ireland and seen paramilitaries up close, that is basically what we have here. Military trained and equipped criminals who make the vast majority of their money off the drug trade having an open war in the streets against the police. Just with shorts and sandals instead of balaclavas and flak-jackets.

BOPE, despite being police, are more like the SAS. (Tropa Elite is a good film on them, if interested).

The "B" in BOPE is translated as battalion, right? Military rather than police, in tone...

SAS is Special Air Service, who were stationed in Northern Ireland during the Troubles, correct?

Just making certain I have all my acronyms clear, not trying to be picky or difficult...

Trying to learn a thing or two...

[Trendisnotdestiny]

to be honest, I genuinely think I will be okay. I'm white, my income is from overseas, we pay our taxes, our kid is private schooled, and nobody fucking lives here. My bigger worries is nature as I saw an alligator a stone throw from my house last week. But I am not really thinking of me when I say those things - I moved to Brazil because the first day I arrived here, I felt more warmth and kindness from strangers than I did from a lot of people I knew everywhere else I had been in the world. They really are fantastic people here. I don't want to see them get fucked over, it's heart breaking. I understand why they are afraid and won't say a bad word about those voting Bolsanaro. Some people want a solution and the left weren't offering it - they offered a continuation. Bolsanaro is offering to solve all the problems and be hard on everything that people fear - crime, traficants, corruption. But they aren't really seeing the bigger picture - and that isn't a surprise when so many people here don't even have a basic education. How could they?

My real concern would be if it goes back to being a military dictatorship - my kids being drafted into the military - he starts picking war with neighbouring countries. On that last one - our drug problem stems from Colombia. They train and arm the traficants and it's their product being sold. So what if he holds the country accountable? Anything other than that, I can probably ride it out from here. I'll get another big dog, upgrade security at home, maybe convince the aligator to patrol my house at nights in exchange for a slab of steak every morning?

Hey mate!  Hope all is well in the land of the Mas Que (by reading a few posts, I see that you are on high alert (alligators and traficantes).  Wishing you well, mate! ----Curious,  what do you know about the conviction of Lula and the implication of that for Haddad in this process?

Not getting great coverage of this, except scare tactics and spin here in the States.  Your opinion is held in high esteem.

John

[classycarra]

Yes, that's right. Wasn't sure the right word to use in English and "drug dealers" doesn't really paint the right picture for people of what they are.

Having lived in Northern Ireland and seen paramilitaries up close, that is basically what we have here. Military trained and equipped criminals who make the vast majority of their money off the drug trade having an open war in the streets against the police. Just with shorts and sandals instead of balaclavas and flak-jackets.

BOPE, despite being police, are more like the SAS. (Tropa Elite is a good film on them, if interested).

Interestingly enough IRA paramilitaries were found to be training FARC (and other) guerillas in Colombia in the late nineties, it was a handy consulting gig abroad for them. So it's not a major surprise to hear you find similarities, given the Colombian influence on traficants that you mention.

One source, of many, for those interested: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/1559348/IRA-training-haunts-Colombias-guerrilla-war.html

PS: second the recommendation for Tropa de Elite, great film

[classycarra]

to be honest, I genuinely think I will be okay. I'm white, my income is from overseas, we pay our taxes, our kid is private schooled, and nobody fucking lives here. My bigger worries is nature as I saw an alligator a stone throw from my house last week. But I am not really thinking of me when I say those things - I moved to Brazil because the first day I arrived here, I felt more warmth and kindness from strangers than I did from a lot of people I knew everywhere else I had been in the world. They really are fantastic people here. I don't want to see them get fucked over, it's heart breaking. I understand why they are afraid and won't say a bad word about those voting Bolsanaro. Some people want a solution and the left weren't offering it - they offered a continuation. Bolsanaro is offering to solve all the problems and be hard on everything that people fear - crime, traficants, corruption. But they aren't really seeing the bigger picture - and that isn't a surprise when so many people here don't even have a basic education. How could they?

My real concern would be if it goes back to being a military dictatorship - my kids being drafted into the military - he starts picking war with neighbouring countries. On that last one - our drug problem stems from Colombia. They train and arm the traficants and it's their product being sold. So what if he holds the country accountable? Anything other than that, I can probably ride it out from here. I'll get another big dog, upgrade security at home, maybe convince the aligator to patrol my house at nights in exchange for a slab of steak every morning?

Not to nitpick, from a good post with personal insight I appreciate, but there's clear correlation that those locations with higher human development index (HDI) scores [including the likes of income per capita, life expectancy and education] are a great deal more likely to vote Bolsanaro than those with lower educational attainment.

So while your point no doubt stands up for some people of a lower socio-economic status there, the trend is actually the opposite. It's the more educated predominantly voting him in.

One would assume, thinking in terms of inequalities, that those from families less likely to have had their lives interrupted by the military dictatorship are the ones being so complacent with democracy this time.

[BabuYagu]

Hey mate!  Hope all is well in the land of the Mas Que (by reading a few posts, I see that you are on high alert (alligators and traficantes).  Wishing you well, mate! ----Curious,  what do you know about the conviction of Lula and the implication of that for Haddad in this process?

Not getting great coverage of this, except scare tactics and spin here in the States.  Your opinion is held in high esteem.

John

Hey mate, good to hear from you.

I can't really answer that, I'll explain why by PM. In short though, I think corruption is/was absolutely rampant in the government here for years and is probably the main factor that preventing Brazil from being more of a financial powerhouse on the world stage when you consider the resources here.

[Indomitable_Carp]

.
But on the thing of cival war - that isn't really true. The gun violence here is basically traficants. Drug dealers and the police (BOPE) have pitched gun battles regularly. Before the world cup, they went into the favelas and "cleaned them out". This is to make the city safer for tourists for the world cup. The warning was this would just push them into the more suburbs. At the time I lived in the safest city in South America (hence why I chose it). 2 years later I moved house to farmer country where the only gun violence is when some old boy fires a musket at someone on his land 'interfering' with his livestock.

I didn't mean 'civil war' in the literal sense of political warfare. I said it more to convey the scale, ferocity and organisation of the violence (as you say). They may not have overtly political aims, but paramilitary-style drug cartels being in open warfare with Brazilian police (who, from what i can tell, are equipped like military units) is a crazy situation with no comparison in any non-Latin American democracies I can think of. 63,000 murders a year is a higher death toll then the height of the war in Afghanistan, and maybe even Iraq (depending on what figures you believe). It puts Brazil up there as one of the bloodiest places on earth, and like you say it is centered almost entirely in population centres where people are trying to go about their day-to-day buisness.

I lived in Chile for a short while, and despite it being the safest country in South America, you still had to have your wits about you going about your day-to-day buisness in a way you just don't here in the UK (even in the roughest parts of Liverpool). Especially as a gringo. If it's like that in Chile where the worst you're likely to contend with is a mugging, I can't even imagine what it's like in Brazil.

Anyway, it's interesting to hear your experiences as someone living it.

[BabuYagu]

I didn't mean 'civil war' in the literal sense of political warfare. I said it more to convey the scale, ferocity and organisation of the violence (as you say). They may not have overtly political aims, but paramilitary-style drug cartels being in open warfare with Brazilian police (who, from what i can tell, are equipped like military units) is a crazy situation with no comparison in any non-Latin American democracies I can think of. 63,000 murders a year is a higher death toll then the height of the war in Afghanistan, and maybe even Iraq (depending on what figures you believe). It puts Brazil up there as one of the bloodiest places on earth, and like you say it is centered almost entirely in population centres where people are trying to go about their day-to-day buisness.

I lived in Chile for a short while, and despite it being the safest country in South America, you still had to have your wits about you going about your day-to-day buisness in a way you just don't here in the UK (even in the roughest parts of Liverpool). Especially as a gringo. If it's like that in Chile where the worst you're likely to contend with is a mugging, I can't even imagine what it's like in Brazil.

Anyway, it's interesting to hear your experiences as someone living it.

Yeah I get what you mean now. yeah the Military Police here have their own special forces called BOPE - similar to the British S.A.S.

When I made the decision to move here, as someone who grew up in Belfast through the troubles I both knew how to identify places I shouldn't go into and also when something was about to kick off. Hard to explain, but you can just sense it. Locals are too quiet - not sure what it is. You can feel it though.

I took a holiday here and it was very clear where was safe, where was not. Where it was not, it was like a war zone. There was pacificied favelas like Rosina & Dona Marta- where Michael Jackson shot the video for They Don't Really Care About Us. There were favelas that weren't pacified - I never went near them. But from looking from afar they reminded me of Poleglas and Ardoyne - which I had been in when I worked in Northern Ireland and was happy to get out alive each time having to go through an IRA checkpoint to do so. We were delivering stuff to their schools though but they still made sure you knew who was in charge. Then there were places more towards the suburbs that were completely peaceful. I never saw any crime other than grafiti.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/QNJL6nfu__Q" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/QNJL6nfu__Q</a>

When they started pacifying those favelas ruled by traficants in the leadup to the world cup, the warning was clear that you can't exterminate roaches and all this would do is make them scatter for cover and spread the problem. Sure enough, within a year, the peaceful places like were I lived in the subburbs were no longer safe and so we started looking to move. I had that same feeling all too often - I don't belong. I'm not safe. Something's going to happen. So we moved into farmer country up the coast.



This is where I live now - this space to the left where a house was thrown up for us. We won't get trouble here as there is no population. I mean, you can get random crime anywhere but I'm fine with that. So I imagine this is all sounding similar to Chile. The only difference really is the favelas - and when you knew where they were, and the problem was contained to those areas, then it is not a problem that affects you. Here I feel safe again. I get randomly followed sometimes when I am on my bike and it freaks me out - but then most of these people haven't met a gringo before and it's just curiosity. Again - you can feel the difference somehow.

So if anybody comes to visit Rio, like my mum - I would say around the airport is the suburbs and you need to be careful. But the airport itself is fine. Military police protect it. You can bounce in an Uber and head to my house for about R250 - or £50. Probably about 100km as the bird flies. That will be pretty safe too. So I would have no worries about my family coming to visit if I control their journey. A random tourist wanting to see the sights though - not so much. It depends how much you have that sense for danger to be honest.

Btw - just shared on my twitter a news story from here in Brazil. A woman dyed her kids skin brown, put him in chains, scars on his back and sent him to a halloween party in school.



She's a Bolsonaro supporter and buys into the whitewashing of history which includes the fact that slavery was never actually a thing. This, coupled with the denials there was ever a military dictatorship, that Hitler Facism=Socialism; that study materials are being destroyed on facism in universities - it really does all start to sound like the beginning of some modern day 1984. If you don't like history, rewrite it. Destroy evidence of it.

https://twitter.com/ninalocag/status/1057278884956266497

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Cheers for all this, a friend of mine went to Rio with her fella a few months ago, was looking forward to it for ages but said the whole thing was terrible, basically as soon as they both got out of the hotel within a few minutes they were being followed (and they’re both very gringo), so it basically became legging it from one place to another or literally getting an Uber for somewhere 400 metres away. chatted about Bolsonaro and she basically said she’d be fine with him getting the military to get rid of them after what they experienced, guess for the majority on here we can’t relate at all to this. Funny thing was they were in punta del Este later in the trip and got chatting to a Brazilian couple who live in the Rio suburbs and they were amazed anyone would want to go there on holiday right now.

One bit about the favelas, I think most are fine with the roaches sticking to their own patch as it were, basically they will just go after each other and anyone who wants to avoid that stuff can easily do (I live in the centre of Manc and there are some dodgy bits not all that far from me but those people tend to stick to their own neighbourhood and leave the other areas alone so I can walk home from a night out in the early hours by myself and not feel one bit in danger), will make it harder if Bolsonaro wants to cleanse them now as you said they’re more spread out as at least before they knew where most of them were, but for them it was near the most tourist friendly bits

[Lush is the best medicine...]

In this binary case, you hold your nose and vote for the party that are currently being punished for their corruption (and are so fucking stupidly campaigning saying they'd release Lula) rather than the guy who is going to lead to congress being dissolved, eroding protections for the rainforest and indigenous people, and pro militarised police having carte blache to kill people to 'tackle crime'.

It's true that not all his supporters are idiots, racists and homophobes - that's a generalisation that isn't necessarily accurate. But an accurate generalisation is that all of his supporters are choosing to support an idiot, a racist and a homophobe.

i do see this point but the party who as you say you hold your nose and vote for are a massive reason why things are so fucked up, so when somebody comes along and offers something different and has for one of the big issues (crime) it’s totally understandable why they’d vote for him, and the overseas Brazilian contingent voting for him its likely because they have family there (and especially for the footballers they’d be targets for kidnappers) security will probably be their main concern and they can probably hope with him being a bit racist and homophobic

[rodderzzz]

Would love to know where your friend was staying, because I was in Rio in July and if I stayed to the advised areas it was safe. Im white as fuck too!

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Would love to know where your friend was staying, because I was in Rio in July and if I stayed to the advised areas it was safe. Im white as fuck too!

around Copacabana

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

Haddad in 98% of the poorest cities and Bolsonaro wins in 97% of the richest cities.

https://www.estadao.com.br/infograficos/politica,bolsonaro-vence-em-97-das-cidades-mais-ricas-e-haddad-em-98-das-pobres,935854

[Moloskari]

The thing is, Brazil's issues are so much more extreme then anything most other democracies have to deal with. It is in a state of civil war (people call them 'homicides' but 63,000 a year is a civil war), has seen one of the biggest corruption scandals in history (engulfed all the main parties and estimated that politicians, state owned companies and their cronies had siphoned off and laundered up to $10 billion) and they have suffered a severe economic crisis with more then 12% of the country still unemployed. It's hardly rising knife crime and the expenses scandal.

Our issues in Europe and the US are a walk-in-the-park in comparison. Bolsonaro is a scary fucker and his election victory is a disaster, but he can only be understood as a very extreme response to very extreme circumstances. Just like Brexit and Trump, brushing all of his supporters off as idiots, racists and homophobes is unhelpful if we are ever to address why the world is rapidly swinging in a scary direction.

So true. It is so ”humane” to react to situations like that in Brazil with voting for harsh measure advocating parties. The problem is that they can’t solve the underlying issues that arepovertyand unequality. Generations after generations without real possibility to make a difference in your life seems in my opinion to lead in this political environment. People want easy solutions. They want to be able to blame the fault on some specific problem and they want easy solutions like getting tough on crime or getting rid of the immigrants. This is the breeding ground for fascism and it could be stopped, at least here in the Europe if we had responciple politicians, which we don’t, who would make politics based on values in stead of votes in the next elections. In my mind we’re already gone over the edge and things are only gooing to get worse. But then, I’m a sceptic and a synic..

[BabuYagu]

Haddad in 98% of the poorest cities and Bolsonaro wins in 97% of the richest cities.

https://www.estadao.com.br/infograficos/politica,bolsonaro-vence-em-97-das-cidades-mais-ricas-e-haddad-em-98-das-pobres,935854

Wow!

But you know... that makes sense. The rich are the ones who are afraid at the moment. Afraid of bus hijackings, car-jackings, random muggings, that their neighbourhood will be the next to be hit by the invasion of traficants.

They are also the ones who think their quality of life probably should be a lot better. The amount that is being put into this country and yet it's like a bucket with holes in it. The holes being corruption and PT are the ones who put them there -or at least that is the narrative.

That said... I would like to see that broken down on a person level because the poor and rich don't equate to 50/50. Ultimately a LOT of poor people must either not be voting or voting for Bolsonaro as the working class and those living on or below the poverty line massively outnumber the rest. Central Rio, for example, must be one of the richest cities and yet most of the biggest favelas in South America are there.

[Straw hat pirate]

Could you expand on Jair and the congresswomen?

I've seen an extended video if it and it looks like the congresswomen disagreed with Jair and then called him a rapist or something to that degree to which he became furious and told her she was too ugly to be raped. He then turned to the camera and said he was glad this was caught on television

The media seems to be selectively reporting this which isn't helping their credibility

[Ravishing Rick Dude]

I don't know much about brazilian politics, but if this guy Bolsonaro is the brazilian Trump, why his party is called "liberal party"? I mean, far-right and liberalism are two opposite things.

[classycarra]

I mean, far-right and liberalism are two opposite things.

They aren't opposite things. Look up libertarianism and laissez faire economics, for two examples of economic 'liberalism'

[BabuYagu]

I don't know much about brazilian politics, but if this guy Bolsonaro is the brazilian Trump, why his party is called "liberal party"? I mean, far-right and liberalism are two opposite things.

Hitler was in the National Socialist German Workers' Party. His politics didn't feel like democratic socialism.
Mussolini was a socialist party politician in Italy. This is true up until the point where he had power - created his own party which wasn't very socialist, then things went in a different direction.

It's better to look at actions - not words - and then decide what that categorises someone as. This will be true of Bolsanaro also. He is saying a lot of scary shit - I hope none of it comes to pass. It feels a little naive but it's where my head is at now. But the fact they are destroying books on fascism, denying slavery ever happened here, denying there was ever a military dictatorship, and talking up a "cull" of political opponents.

In my wife whatsapp groups, almost entirely filled with the middle and upper class, they pretty much look like a circle jerk where all the wrongs of the world - ever - are labelled socialist/communist. Anybody who disagrees is rounded on as a snowflake and bullied out of the group. "People are scared by Bolsonaro as he is a strong leader that won't tolerate corruption and these people know they have both hands in our pockets for years".

It feels a lot like single policy politics. They were going to back whoever was hardest on corruption and just overlook anything else.

Could you expand on Jair and the congresswomen?

I've seen an extended video if it and it looks like the congresswomen disagreed with Jair and then called him a rapist or something to that degree to which he became furious and told her she was too ugly to be raped. He then turned to the camera and said he was glad this was caught on television

The media seems to be selectively reporting this which isn't helping their credibility

My understanding of it is the congresswoman is actually on the committee/board of human right here in Brazil. May even chair it.

She accused Bolsonaro of making comments that encourage/condone rape some 15 years ago and he replied in an interview that she shouldn't worry, she was too ugly to rape. He was then ordered to pay a fine for his comments by a judge.

The video you have probably seen is definitely her baiting him and the press recording it - but then I have no problem with that either. If the man is a psychopath, then seeing how he reacts when under a tiny bit of pressure is probably a good thing. Sure, it's not right to be baiting someone like that - but then the truth is, nobody can bait you into saying something racist, homophobic or misogynist unless somewhere in your head, that thought exists. Or if you are a sociopath that just fires out random awful, offensive things to 'win' but don't believe any of them.

The man has some very strong opinions on women, gay community & immigrants that come out in a calm & controlled setting. It is not a surprise that he found a way to duck out of the debates where he might have been under some pressure and said something truly appalling.

Would love to know the truth about the whole stabbing thing too. Hundreds of photos and videos of him and not one drop of blood can be seen.