Topic: Brazil - The next country to fall to the right

[rodderzzz]

Jair Bolsonaro - 'The Brazilian Trump' looks likely to win the main election in two weeks time having won the first round today.

Potentially very depressing times ahead for Brazilians who seem to have fallen under the same spell as many 'democracies' in recent times having huge swathes of voters influenced by hate and fake news. It was especially interesting to me that the Russian spies stopped in Netherlands had been making stops in Rio which is where Bolsonaro is based.

My misses is Brazilian, and the fear of that new democracy slipping back into a dictatorship is suddenly very real.

Just feels like time and time again the World is shifting into a dark place that historically has ended badly.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-07/bitterly-divided-brazil-starts-voting-with-democracy-at-stake

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[rodderzzz]

and if you'd like live updates on the current situation the Guardian is currently covering this:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2018/oct/08/brazil-election-2018-polls-close-after-chaotic-and-unpredictable-campaign-live

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Tim Vickery was saying that urban crime has gotten massively out of control, plus the likes of Lula and dilma being utter shite is why there are many who like him

[rodderzzz]

Tim Vickery was saying that urban crime has gotten massively out of control, plus the likes of Lula and dilma being utter shite is why there are many who like him

The problems are many, but it's the same misdirected anger that's going to throw up this outcome. If you go back and look at his campaign, the parallels to trump are insane, except this guy definitely has a touch of the duterte's about him.

[Red Beret]

Disillusionment  with a detached political ruling class that seems more interested in its own enrichment.  People choose personality over establishment, unwittingly making themselves accomplices to epic levels of political, legal and economic corruption that can only end violently.

The lights are going out all over the world.  We may not seem them lit again in our lifetime.

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

ELE NAO!

[Andy82lfc]

Jair Bolsonaro - 'The Brazilian Trump' looks likely to win the main election in two weeks time having won the first round today.

Potentially very depressing times ahead for Brazilians who seem to have fallen under the same spell as many 'democracies' in recent times having huge swathes of voters influenced by hate and fake news. It was especially interesting to me that the Russian spies stopped in Netherlands had been making stops in Rio which is where Bolsonaro is based.

My misses is Brazilian, and the fear of that new democracy slipping back into a dictatorship is suddenly very real.

Just feels like time and time again the World is shifting into a dark place that historically has ended badly.

My wife is Brazilian also, the family all (but one) voted for the workers party as there’s no way they can vote for such a piece of work Bolsonaro is, but unfortunately they know the PT has dragged the country through the shit and understand why this is happening.

It’s very easy for a populist like Bolsonaro to pop up in such a climate where the opposition can have so much shit hurled at them and rightly so. The mud slinging hasn’t even started yet either, it’s going to get a lot worse in the second round.

[Indomitable_Carp]

Some of this guys comments make Trump look comparatively angelic.

Potentially very depressing times ahead for Brazilians who seem to have fallen under the same spell as many 'democracies' in recent times having huge swathes of voters influenced by hate and fake news. It was especially interesting to me that the Russian spies stopped in Netherlands had been making stops in Rio which is where Bolsonaro is based.

The thing is, it's been very depressing times in Brazil for a good few years now. Aside from corruption scandals and economic crisis, Brazil racked up 63,000 murders last year. It is for all intents and purposes a warzone in many of its cities. I've spent some time in S.America, and even though I was in one of the safer countries, security was at the forefront of everyone's minds. And it's fair enough, you do have to have your wits about you going about your day-to-day business in a way that we just don't have to contend with. It is a very extreme situation whatever way you look at it. Unfortunately that often breeds extreme answers.

Scary times indeed.

[BarryCrocker]

Well worth watching John Oliver's take on all this from about 11mins.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/NYy59ct28p8" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/NYy59ct28p8</a>

[Andy]

Some of this guys comments make Trump look comparatively angelic.

The thing is, it's been very depressing times in Brazil for a good few years now. Aside from corruption scandals and economic crisis, Brazil racked up 63,000 murders last year. It is for all intents and purposes a warzone in many of its cities. I've spent some time in S.America, and even though I was in one of the safer countries, security was at the forefront of everyone's minds. And it's fair enough, you do have to have your wits about you going about your day-to-day business in a way that we just don't have to contend with. It is a very extreme situation whatever way you look at it. Unfortunately that often breeds extreme answers.

Scary times indeed.

Liberals (in which I include myself) are failing to provide decent enough candidates that rival these far-right politicians. I think it is because voters want 'strongmen' to fight the significant issues they are experiencing (massive corruption in Brazil) or think they are experiencing (the impact of globalisation in the US).

Are there any examples in history of liberal strongmen? There must have been people who have been elected to deal with huge issues, but haven't also been racist/homophobic/sexist etc. and courted the far right.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Re liberal strongmen, the likes of Chavez and Castro at a bit of a push

[Nobby Reserve]

Re liberal strongmen, the likes of Chavez and Castro at a bit of a push

Hardly 'liberal'

[Max_powers]

Was talking to a Brazillian friend of mine a few months ago in Canada. His family is from fairly well off background.

When talking about Brazillian politics he was quite an ardent supporter of the military dictatorship and their repression of human rights saying they were necessary to keep the communists out. To my little surprise, he is a supporter of Bolsonaro.

From what I understand Bolsonaro is pro vigilantism to prevent crime, and his policies are anti-racial minorities and LGBTQ. Given Brazil's weak political system he has the potential to do some real damage.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

https://twitter.com/yazzarf/status/1049259004441108480?s=21

Basically adds weight to the above

[Slick_Beef]

I have several Brazillians on my team at work, a lot of them have come to Portugal over the past few years because the situation there was worsening. They are all educated middle class, most are totally against this guy but some are of the "Well I don't agree with him on everything but.. " position.  I find him odious but it's also clear that Brasilian politics has been in a spectacularly bad state for some time now*, with rampant corruption and a recession, perfect grounds for a populist extremist spouting seemingly simple solutions to very complex problems to succeed.

* As an example of how fed up people are of mainstream politicians, I particularly like the story of Tiririca, a clown (literally) who barely passed the obligatory literacy test prior to candidacy, being elected three times to congress over the past decade using the slogans "vote Tiririca - because it can't get any worse than it is" and "I'll take care of Brasil's families - starting with my own"

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

Interesting thread.

@yazzarf

I’ve been wondering who the 40 million Brazilians who voted for Bolsonaro yday are, and my mum sent me this polling (link below). There are some demographic trends...

https://www.twitter.com/yazzarf/status/1049259004441108480

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

Before Sunday’s election, Érica Malunguinho was already an inspiration to the Afro-Brazilian population. Two years ago, she founded Aparelha Luzia, a space that has become influential and important among Brazil’s Black population. And after Sunday’s election, Malunguinho made history as the first transgender woman elected to a state congress in Sao Paulo.

Malunguinho, a member of the Partido Socialismo y Libertad (PSOL), has vowed to fight for the LGBTQ community, which faces increased threats under a Jair Bolsonaro presidency. (He won the first round of votes, but will face off against Fernando Haddad in a run off on October 28.) Bolsonaro has made many homophobic statements in the past.

This year, the country saw a record breaking number of candidates with 54 trans individuals running. Barbara Aires ran because those in power do not have the interests’ of the trans community at heart. “When all you have are rich, white men discussing policies, things will never improve for the majority of people,” she said.

For Érica, part of what motivated her was the assassination of Marielle Franco, a queer Afro-Brazilian politician. “I cried a lot when I heard about Marielle’s murder,” Érica told Afropunk. “Her political project was just wiped out. It was a message to us that we should not be there fighting over our bodies and resisting genocide and racism. I had so much hate in me. At the same time, I knew I needed to take this hate and do something positive with it.”

http://remezcla.com/culture/erica-malunguinho-first-trans-woman-elected-sao-paulo/

[kavah]

looks like it's Bolsonaro. I'm in Brasil, fireworks going off like it's a big football night. He's clearly very popular with a sizable number of men and women. His support is really strong in the South. Not so much in the NE. God help us.

[princeoftherocks]

its all kicking off in the world.  Brazil have got a president who has some pretty extreme views.  Hopefully it won't be us next with Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson.

[harryc]

Confirmed on bbc.

[Giono]

Can any policies, extreme or otherwise make the commodity markets reappear?

[kavah]

^ aye - at least Soya to China is up because of Trump.

[12C]

Disillusionment  with a detached political ruling class that seems more interested in its own enrichment.  People choose personality over establishment, unwittingly making themselves accomplices to epic levels of political, legal and economic corruption that can only end violently.

The lights are going out all over the world.  We may not seem them lit again in our lifetime.

Can see the parallels with Peron in Argentina in the past. Even when he was discredited, the personality of Evita was enough to con the masses. Blame the elite despite being part of it

[BabuYagu]

looks like it's Bolsonaro. I'm in Brasil, fireworks going off like it's a big football night. He's clearly very popular with a sizable number of men and women. His support is really strong in the South. Not so much in the NE. God help us.

Ugh, what a fucking night.

What I will say though, this is what happens when you run a fucking shit, non-solution candidate against a clearly horrific candidate who says he has the solution. Simple solutions to complex problems appeal to simple people.

Lula was the lefts guy - someone who is tainted in corruption. You ask any Brazil leading up to the election what is the thing holding back the country most, they likely say corruption. Once he was out of the running, the put up Haddad and his message is "I am the same as Haddad" simply because he is an empty suit. The absolute best it got was "EleNão" which reminded me just a tad of this.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/hCFzYcLVNk0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/hCFzYcLVNk0</a>

I always try to search for positives, even in an absolutely shit heap of a situations such as this. I genuinely fear this fuckhead will just chop down the amazon and, in doing so, rapidly accelerate the end times for our species. But if that doesn't happen - if somehow we come out the other side of this still having a democracy here (probably not), without the planet dying around us (probably not) and able to have another go at voting for a leader of this country - maybe someone will put up a candidate against a clear cluster fuck of an option who neither stinks of corruption or doesn't appear to be an empty suit. Give people someone that inspires them. Someone they want to vote for. The far right is doing exactly this - unfortunately it is inspiring all the sociopaths, racists and c*nts in society and making them want to vote more than every before - finally their voice is taken seriously.

So that is the positive I hope to see. I'm not convinced I will though.

I'll probably delete this in the morning. Just... it gets you down. Jesus fucking christ why?

[rodderzzz]

tears in our house tonight She's beyond gutted, especially for all her family and friends who are still living there

Can't really help but think there are some horrible times ahead for Brazilians

[BabuYagu]

tears in our house tonight She's beyond gutted, especially for all her family and friends who are still living there

Can't really help but think there are some horrible times ahead for Brazilians

Same. A gay relative was waiting for a bus last week when a car pulled up. Guy leaned out the window and said "we'll be coming for you when Bolsonaro is in charge". All my adult life I thought of Brazil as the country where people could be free to express themselves in every possible way. It is something I fell in love with the first moment I came here. I met more openly gay people in my first day here than I did 20+ years living in the UK.

Won't be a fun time for them. I also expect military service to become compulsory again. Fun times for my two daughters also.

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

Rodrigo Castriota
@castriotar

"More than 20 Brazilian universities were invaded by the military police in the past 2 days. They confiscated material on the history of fascism, interrupted classes due to 'ideological content', removed anti-fascist banners and posters claiming that it was electoral propaganda."

Folha de S.Paulo
@folha

"Universidades de todo o país são alvo de ações policiais e da Justiça Eleitoral"

[rodderzzz]

Same. A gay relative was waiting for a bus last week when a car pulled up. Guy leaned out the window and said "we'll be coming for you when Bolsonaro is in charge". All my adult life I thought of Brazil as the country where people could be free to express themselves in every possible way. It is something I fell in love with the first moment I came here. I met more openly gay people in my first day here than I did 20+ years living in the UK.

Won't be a fun time for them. I also expect military service to become compulsory again. Fun times for my two daughters also.

I agree, I made my first trip there earlier this year and the country and the people are infectious in a way i've never experienced before. We're living in Vancouver now but we've got Globonews on tonight and it's making some depressing viewing

[classycarra]

Ugh, what a fucking night.

What I will say though, this is what happens when you run a fucking shit, non-solution candidate against a clearly horrific candidate who says he has the solution. Simple solutions to complex problems appeal to simple people.

Lula was the lefts guy - someone who is tainted in corruption. You ask any Brazil leading up to the election what is the thing holding back the country most, they likely say corruption. Once he was out of the running, the put up Haddad and his message is "I am the same as Haddad" simply because he is an empty suit. The absolute best it got was "EleNão" which reminded me just a tad of this.

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/v/hCFzYcLVNk0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="bbc_link bbc_flash_disabled new_win">https://www.youtube.com/v/hCFzYcLVNk0</a>

I always try to search for positives, even in an absolutely shit heap of a situations such as this. I genuinely fear this fuckhead will just chop down the amazon and, in doing so, rapidly accelerate the end times for our species. But if that doesn't happen - if somehow we come out the other side of this still having a democracy here (probably not), without the planet dying around us (probably not) and able to have another go at voting for a leader of this country - maybe someone will put up a candidate against a clear cluster fuck of an option who neither stinks of corruption or doesn't appear to be an empty suit. Give people someone that inspires them. Someone they want to vote for. The far right is doing exactly this - unfortunately it is inspiring all the sociopaths, racists and c*nts in society and making them want to vote more than every before - finally their voice is taken seriously.

So that is the positive I hope to see. I'm not convinced I will though.

I'll probably delete this in the morning. Just... it gets you down. Jesus fucking christ why?

DOn;'t delete that. It's a good illuminating post. It puts into words some similar things that my friend in Brazil has been saying. I think he's also at the trying to search for positives stage too, so conversations with me haven't been helpful. Genuinely think congress will be dissolved under him, and then as you say carte blanche with the amazon coming up

[classycarra]

Rodrigo Castriota
@castriotar

"More than 20 Brazilian universities were invaded by the military police in the past 2 days. They confiscated material on the history of fascism, interrupted classes due to 'ideological content', removed anti-fascist banners and posters claiming that it was electoral propaganda."

Folha de S.Paulo
@folha

"Universidades de todo o país são alvo de ações policiais e da Justiça Eleitoral"

And

https://twitter.com/octavio_ferraz/status/1055566020201594882

[Devon Red]

There's so much hyperbole around politicians these days that sometimes it's hard to differentiate between 'a bad dude' and 'an actual fucking fascist'. The more I read the more Bolsonaro seems to be the latter. Not a Brazilian version of a UKIP little-Englander, but an actual real life military dictator in waiting, complete with the torture rooms and show trials.

Does anyone know what would actually happen if he tried to dissolve Congress? Would the judiciary stand up to him?

[kennedy81]

Very depressing.

I predict within two years he will be neck deep in corruption scandals, and will blame 'fake news', leftist outlaws, conspiring globalists and immigrants for trying to 'frame' him. Maybe by then he will have declared martial law and thrown the justice system in the bin, as a means of 'protecting' Brazilians from these 'forces of chaos'.
We can say bye bye to the rain forests while we're at it.

The extent at which people in so many countries are voting out of emotion (fear, anger etc), all amplified by social media, rather than facts, logic and reason, is a real worry.

[killer-heels]

Very depressing.

I predict within two years he will be neck deep in corruption scandals, and will blame 'fake news', leftist outlaws, conspiring globalists and immigrants for trying to 'frame' him. Maybe by then he will have declared martial law and thrown the justice system in the bin, as a means of 'protecting' Brazilians from these 'forces of chaos'.
We can say bye bye to the rain forests while we're at it.

The extent at which people in so many countries are voting out of emotion (fear, anger etc), all amplified by social media, rather than facts, logic and reason, is a real worry.

To be fair, his opposition was absolute horse shite and he ‘only’ got 55%.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

To be fair, his opposition was absolute horse shite and he ‘only’ got 55%.

and the Brazilian left ran the country for most of this millennium, totally fucked up on so many levels and he only got that much

[BabuYagu]

To be fair, his opposition was absolute horse shite and he ‘only’ got 55%.

Actually he only got 39% of the vote. 1/3 of the country didn't vote.

[killer-heels]

Actually he only got 39% of the vote. 1/3 of the country didn't vote.

Yep I meant out of those who did vote.

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

The indigenous Bororo village in Mato Grosso do Sul has been burned down.

http://m.topmidianews.com.br/policia/reporter-top-confronto-entre-indios-e-produtores-rurais-deixa-dois/99479/

[Buggy Eyes Alfredo]

Daniel Hamilton
@danielrhamilton

Votes of Brazilians abroad starting to be announced:

🇬🇧: Bolsonaro 61%, Haddad 39%
🇵🇹: Bolsonaro 64%, Haddad 36%
🇫🇷: Haddad 69%, 31% Bolsonaro
🇮🇱: Bolsonaro 77%, 23% Haddad
🇩🇪: Haddad 74%, 26% Bolsonaro
🇦🇺: Bolsonaro 65%, Haddad 35%
🇨🇭: Bolsonaro 58%, Haddad 42%

[killer-heels]

Daniel Hamilton
@danielrhamilton

Votes of Brazilians abroad starting to be announced:

🇬🇧: Bolsonaro 61%, Haddad 39%
🇵🇹: Bolsonaro 64%, Haddad 36%
🇫🇷: Haddad 69%, 31% Bolsonaro
🇮🇱: Bolsonaro 77%, 23% Haddad
🇩🇪: Haddad 74%, 26% Bolsonaro
🇦🇺: Bolsonaro 65%, Haddad 35%
🇨🇭: Bolsonaro 58%, Haddad 42%

Wonder which of our lads voted for Bolsonaro apart from Alisson.

[rodderzzz]

Daniel Hamilton
@danielrhamilton

Votes of Brazilians abroad starting to be announced:

🇬🇧: Bolsonaro 61%, Haddad 39%
🇵🇹: Bolsonaro 64%, Haddad 36%
🇫🇷: Haddad 69%, 31% Bolsonaro
🇮🇱: Bolsonaro 77%, 23% Haddad
🇩🇪: Haddad 74%, 26% Bolsonaro
🇦🇺: Bolsonaro 65%, Haddad 35%
🇨🇭: Bolsonaro 58%, Haddad 42%

Id be interested in Canada if you find it mate, cheers