Topic: May 2018 Local Elections (*)

[Wabaloolah]

UKIP down 111 councillors to just 3 according to the BBC. I see 2 of them are in Derby, any idea where the other is out of interest?

All 3 in Derby I think, including one gain where they unseated the Labour Leader

[hide5seek]

Just to give you (imo) an idea of how much notice most people take of local elections. During the GE nearly every street I drove through, had posters/boards declaring for one party or the other (con/lib mainly around here), to the point you couldn't count them. For this local election I counted 15 posters/boards.

[Mutton Geoff]

Geoff, please let us put him in the naughty corner. If you do it, we get a tit for tat spiral.

Will do Sir

[OneTouchFooty]

UKIP haven't gone anywhere they've just moved back across to their ancestral home amongst the Tories. Long term is this a good or bad outcome, who knows.. I'm sure Frottage and every other cretin of his ilk that crawl out from under the rocks will still have their safe seat front and centre on QT and Newsnight.

[BoRed]

The GE projection by Michael Trasher based on these results is: Con 306, Lab 261, LD 26.

The BBC projection:



https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/992402384914546688/photo/1

[SP]

The BBC projection:



https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/992402384914546688/photo/1

Labour have done better In the later results. I suspect Thrashers figures will move too. Still it is all telling us what we knew that the vote split is fairly even between the big two, and everyone else on the mainland besides the SNP  is being squeezed by that.

[Wilmo]

Labour have done better In the later results. I suspect Thrashers figures will move too. Still it is all telling us what we knew that the vote split is fairly even between the big two, and everyone else on the mainland besides the SNP  is being squeezed by that.

There's always the question of the SNP as well, I wonder how Scotland have been figured into that calculation.

The ideal scenario might actually end up being a coalition government with Labour and one of the anti-Brexit parties. I can see a compromise deal for a second referendum if that was the case, I imagine it would be a red line for Cable or Sturgeon.

[Danny Boys Dad]

There's always the question of the SNP as well, I wonder how Scotland have been figured into that calculation.

The ideal scenario might actually end up being a coalition government with Labour and one of the anti-Brexit parties. I can see a compromise deal for a second referendum if that was the case, I imagine it would be a red line for Cable or Sturgeon.

The Lib Dems have no red lines, they would jump back in with the Tories before the last vote was counted

[filopastry]

There's always the question of the SNP as well, I wonder how Scotland have been figured into that calculation.

The ideal scenario might actually end up being a coalition government with Labour and one of the anti-Brexit parties. I can see a compromise deal for a second referendum if that was the case, I imagine it would be a red line for Cable or Sturgeon.

Not sure if they will change their approach next time out, but for 2017 the LibDems were openly saying they would not consider coalition government again, having been burned so badly in 2010-15

[SP]

There's always the question of the SNP as well, I wonder how Scotland have been figured into that calculation.

The ideal scenario might actually end up being a coalition government with Labour and one of the anti-Brexit parties. I can see a compromise deal for a second referendum if that was the case, I imagine it would be a red line for Cable or Sturgeon.

65 others:

1 speaker. 18 NI. 4 Plaid. 1 Green.

41 unaccounted for.  59 seats in Scotland. Currently have 35, had 54 before - gain of 6 seats sounds reasonable.

[Red-Soldier]

The Lib Dems have no red lines, they would jump back in with the Tories before the last vote was counted

Yeah 

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Same old same old did Chris piss on your cornflakes you are obsessed with the guy,

they lost because the labour leader in Derby had lost touch with the electorate in Derby,  he didnt even attend the results and he had of course lost his seat.

or he’s the most high profile derby politician who’s recently been promoting a link to a fundraiser for a man who was a Labour Party member for a month who was booted out for anti Semitism, his comments on Russia/Syria etc and maybe that’s impacting the party locally with the floating voters?

[BoRed]

The ideal scenario might actually end up being a coalition government with Labour and one of the anti-Brexit parties. I can see a compromise deal for a second referendum if that was the case, I imagine it would be a red line for Cable or Sturgeon.

The only problem with that is that Brexit will take place before the next general election.

[Trada]

Great results for Labour Tories only saved by Ukippers coming home to roost.

Bring on the general election and the party conference so hopefully something can be done about the Blairites who are popping up all over the media having a go at the party.

Jeremy would be PM right now if it was a GE and Labours best results since 71 and still they moan.

[ShakaHislop]

Great results for Labour Tories only saved by Ukippers coming home to roost.

Bring on the general election and the party conference so hopefully something can be done about the Blairites who are popping up all over the media having a go at the party.

Jeremy would be PM right now if it was a GE and Labours best results since 71 and still they moan.

Most comments I've seen referencing this on Twitter say it's only in relation to London. I don't know what measure is being used either. Total number of councillors? Gains?

[killer-heels]

The BBC projection:



https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/992402384914546688/photo/1

Hmm that is interesting. Turnout amongst the young must be pretty shit as well.

[Libertine]

Impressive results for the Lib dems. Gained 4 councils and the party with the largest increase in seats as things stand. A projected national vote share of 16% too.

[Team Sleep]

Same old same old did Chris piss on your cornflakes you are obsessed with the guy,

they lost because the labour leader in Derby had lost touch with the electorate in Derby,  he didnt even attend the results and he had of course lost his seat.

Exactly. Banwait was deeply unpopular and managed to lose Boulton ward to UKIP. Stuff like this will do that:

First, he faced a fierce public backlash after the annual parade for St George’s Day was axed from the council’s budget to save £10,000. This came alongside the authority’s decision to end the Markeaton Park firework display, the Darley Park concert and Market Place Christmas lights switch-on.

https://www.derbytelegraph.co.uk/news/ranjit-banwait-derby-city-council-1532692

[Team Sleep]

or he’s the most high profile derby politician who’s recently been promoting a link to a fundraiser for a man who was a Labour Party member for a month who was booted out for anti Semitism, his comments on Russia/Syria etc and maybe that’s impacting the party locally with the floating voters?

I know you're an authority on everything you can get to a keyboard to type about but I'm afraid you're mistaken this time - in Derby this had little or nothing to do with the national Labour party, anti-Semitism, Russia or anything else. The council and it's leader were hugely unpopular. There's now no overall control.

Don't disagree that Williamson is an opportunistic twat, mind.

[CornerFlag]

The BBC projection:



https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/992402384914546688/photo/1

Christ, there's no way any sort of parliament could be formed from that sort of split.

From Britain Elects:

Of the 81 council seats lost by UKIP we've looked at...

47 gained by Con
30 gained by Lab
2 gained by Ind(s)
1 gained by Grn

So although the overall UKIP vote does generally go to the Tories, to say that Labour don't have those with Kipper views seems to be somewhat incorrect, and I guess they're the votes that the current leadership have chased with their Brexit policy.  The next step is... now what?

[SP]

Great results for Labour Tories only saved by Ukippers coming home to roost.

Bring on the general election and the party conference so hopefully something can be done about the Blairites who are popping up all over the media having a go at the party.

Jeremy would be PM right now if it was a GE and Labours best results since 71 and still they moan.

There is so much wrong with this.

The Tories only save by getting more people to vote for them. There are not different classes of voters based on ideological adherence to your standards. FPTP is simple, Labour need to get more votes than the Tories to win. If the ex-UKIP voters vote Tory, it still counts.



I am not sure what vote share you are seeing, it is looking very much like a hung parliament prediction on every set of figures that I have seen.

It is about a 2.5% increase on the number of councillors against Miliband and an overall loss of one council. They are not bad results, but they are not worthy of hyperbole.

The local elections in the first years of Blair's leadership looked like a much stronger performance. And ultimately talking up the performance when it clearly is a mixed bag removes the incentive to make make improvements that still need to be made. The parties are still neck and neck, and Labour need to do something to remove the deadlock. Even if Corbyn does become PM in a hung parliament, how much legislation do you think he can get passed when he relies on a junior party for support?

I understand your desire to cheer lead for Corbyn, but just as we are pulling up people in the other camp for making snarky comments, you actually have to post something that is justifiable with some basis in reality. As a general guide, if you are about to post something with the words Blair or Blairite in, its probably not a great idea.

[Gerry Attrick]

Dan Jarvis elected as South Yorkshire mayor with a massive majority. Turnout was disappointingly low at 25.82%.

[rob1966]

Our council (Trafford) now no overall control and Labour now hold a 1 seat majority over the Tories. Shame it wasn't more so we could fully get rid of the c*nts.

[TepidT2O]

Great results for Labour Tories only saved by Ukippers coming home to roost.

Bring on the general election and the party conference so hopefully something can be done about the Blairites who are popping up all over the media having a go at the party.

Jeremy would be PM right now if it was a GE and Labours best results since 71 and still they moan.

Interesting UKIP collapse .... but the Tories have got their UKIP voters back, it doesn’t seem like labour have.. yet.


On a point of order, it’s nowhere near the best results for labour.  Good, but not anywhere near 97 when we look at the protection of councillors that went labour...

[Circa1892]

Jeremy would be PM right now if it was a GE and Labours best results since 71 and still they moan.

This is a lie. It was not Labour's best result since 71.

Dan Jarvis elected as South Yorkshire mayor with a massive majority. Turnout was disappointingly low at 25.82%.

Most of that was reluctant aswell. It only got any form of traction as people who were voting in the local got given a ballot they weren't over enamoured with. The role was decisively rejected in referendums and got foisted on people anyway. Jarvis will do a good job though. Sign of the times that, like Burnham, Labour's best have decided that it's in local government they can have the biggest impact.

[BlackandWhitePaul]

I could never imagine my area ever being anything other than Labour.

[Yorkykopite]

This is a lie. It was not Labour's best result since 71.

I think he might have meant ‘17. And he’d be right. It wasn’t a good night for Labour, but they’re a couple of seats better off than last year.

[cloggypop]

I think he might have meant ‘17. And he’d be right. It wasn’t a good night for Labour, but they’re a couple of seats better off than last year.

59. Not much to take from it though.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-43997872

[TepidT2O]

I don’t think any side did particularly brilliantly out of these local elections, but labour must ask questions of themselves.

The leader visited Trafford, Dudley, Swindon, Watford, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster, Wandsworth, Plymouth, Derby, Kirklees, Barnet, Hillingdon, Lincolnshire, Lambeth and Thurrock.

Of those, only Plymouth and Kirklees were won.  This seems a very low hit rate.  Is the targeting working? Are voters being alienated in some way? Is it the case that Corbyn going on the streets doesn’t work of it doesn’t gain coverage on TV?

[Trada]

Final results after Tower Hamlets finally came in. where Labour won an extra 20 seats.

[SP]

20 seat gain in Tower Hamlets shows the dangers of extrapolation. Labour already holds all the Westminster seats in the borough. It’s nice to gain support, but it does not help to get closer to a Commons majority.

The Tories have 21 seats in London. Most of those are safe. With FPTP it appears that parties are stacking up votes more in their safe areas rather than breaking new ground. Polarisation everywhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London#Party_breakdown

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Of those, only Plymouth and Kirklees were won.  This seems a very low hit rate.  Is the targeting working? Are voters being alienated in some way? Is it the case that Corbyn going on the streets doesn’t work of it doesn’t gain coverage on TV?

id say it’s because corbyn has peaked, look at the approval ratings since the election which hint to that

[Andy @ Allerton!]

id say it’s because corbyn has peaked, look at the approval ratings since the election which hint to that

Corbyn or Brexit though? I personally won't vote for Corbyn entirely because of Brexit because I feel that it's the most important thing to happen to the UK since World War II. If Corbyn was anti-Brexit from the start then I'd have no problem voting for him (Although I don't agree with everything he does).

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Corbyn or Brexit though? I personally won't vote for Corbyn entirely because of Brexit because I feel that it's the most important thing to happen to the UK since World War II. If Corbyn was anti-Brexit from the start then I'd have no problem voting for him (Although I don't agree with everything he does).

the problem with corbyn/Brexit to many has been his attitude from the start which was at best ambivalent and since then it’s been massive fence sitting (his old quote of being silent to an oppressor than you are with them bites him in the arse here as labour have become a pro Brexit party despite their members being massively pro remain)

and as I’ve said before if it works out then labour won’t get any credit as they didn’t do the actual work with the eu/non eu countries to get things like trade deals done and if it turns out to be a disaster the likes of Nicky Morgan and co will be more than happy to remind them that corbyn’s three line whip to vote with the government for article 50 means they were happy to go along with it so can’t exactly complain here, so basically on Brexit he’s in a no win situation, ditto for the anti semitism as instead of acting on it 2 years ago when he should it’s got to the stage where they couldn’t win councils they really should be winning due to what the Jewish community largely see corbyns labour as being nowadays so for me he’s done as someone who can lead the country, my main concern is the long term impact on the labour party

[Trada]

20 seat gain in Tower Hamlets shows the dangers of extrapolation. Labour already holds all the Westminster seats in the borough. It’s nice to gain support, but it does not help to get closer to a Commons majority.

The Tories have 21 seats in London. Most of those are safe. With FPTP it appears that parties are stacking up votes more in their safe areas rather than breaking new ground. Polarisation everywhere.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_London#Party_breakdown

Labour were only about 150 votes short of taking Wandsworth and were so close in places like Swindon.

Liverpool and Manchester now have no Tories.

If it wasnt for the Ukip collapse this election the Tories would have been decimated in the local elections thats already been factored into the Next election

And all of this done with none stop attacks on Labour and Jeremy for weeks.

Labour will win the next election.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Labour were only about 150 votes short of taking wandsworth and were so close in places like Swindon.

rachel needs to up her game

[Andy @ Allerton!]

the problem with corbyn/Brexit to many has been his attitude from the start which was at best ambivalent and since then it’s been massive fence sitting (his old quote of being silent to an oppressor than you are with them bites him in the arse here as labour have become a pro Brexit party despite their members being massively pro remain)

and as I’ve said before if it works out then labour won’t get any credit as they didn’t do the actual work with the eu/non eu countries to get things like trade deals done and if it turns out to be a disaster the likes of Nicky Morgan and co will be more than happy to remind them that corbyn’s three line whip to vote with the government for article 50 means they were happy to go along with it so can’t exactly complain here, so basically on Brexit he’s in a no win situation, ditto for the anti semitism as instead of acting on it 2 years ago when he should it’s got to the stage where they couldn’t win councils they really should be winning due to what the Jewish community largely see corbyns labour as being nowadays so for me he’s done as someone who can lead the country, my main concern is the long term impact on the labour party

Can't disagree with any of that. If Labour go all out anti-Brexit now then they'll be rightly turned on as being all over the place. Their only chance really is to get someone else in or for Corbyn to do something different.

The thing that's been clear from even all the arguments (I've read, but not been as involved recently) - is that through it all shines the hope that the Labour Party will get back on track, get back to what it stands for and fight for the country. It's a seemingly impossible sitation and it doesn't seem any closer to be solved today as it was years or months ago.

The people that vote Labour aren't enemies to each other. Such a crying shame that this seems to be where we're stuck at. But the Tories and their minions are loving this - this is what they do the best - divide and conquer.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Can't disagree with any of that. If Labour go all out anti-Brexit now then they'll be rightly turned on as being all over the place. Their only chance really is to get someone else in or for Corbyn to do something different.

can corbyn do anything different though, it’s gone way to far for him to change tack

The thing that's been clear from even all the arguments (I've read, but not been as involved recently) - is that through it all shines the hope that the Labour Party will get back on track, get back to what it stands for and fight for the country. It's a seemingly impossible sitation and it doesn't seem any closer to be solved today as it was years or months ago.

the one thing that it has going for it is despite them not being great they aren’t too far off, then again the Tories can look at this and say ‘if we got a decent leader we’d be miles ahead of those idiots’ likewise labour can say the same thing, but it’s the long term damage I’m worried about and the party with the strong pro remain membership/voter base will lose out far more than the Tories who are more evenly split on the issue

The people that vote Labour aren't enemies to each other. Such a crying shame that this seems to be where we're stuck at. But the Tories and their minions are loving this - this is what they do the best - divide and conquer.

youve got the likes of myself who want to vote labour but vote Lib Dem because I can’t bring myself to vote labour, even though I have a labour mp and I have no problem with her (would happily vote for her as an Indy), then again her being on that shit list a while ago I like

[oldfordie]

the problem with corbyn/Brexit to many has been his attitude from the start which was at best ambivalent and since then it’s been massive fence sitting (his old quote of being silent to an oppressor than you are with them bites him in the arse here as labour have become a pro Brexit party despite their members being massively pro remain)

and as I’ve said before if it works out then labour won’t get any credit as they didn’t do the actual work with the eu/non eu countries to get things like trade deals done and if it turns out to be a disaster the likes of Nicky Morgan and co will be more than happy to remind them that corbyn’s three line whip to vote with the government for article 50 means they were happy to go along with it so can’t exactly complain here, so basically on Brexit he’s in a no win situation, ditto for the anti semitism as instead of acting on it 2 years ago when he should it’s got to the stage where they couldn’t win councils they really should be winning due to what the Jewish community largely see corbyns labour as being nowadays so for me he’s done as someone who can lead the country, my main concern is the long term impact on the labour party

Yeah, I think Corbyns attitude following the referendum was very naive. he should have given himself options to backtrack.
Problem we've had for over 18months is Corbyn argued that Brexit must be delivered no matter what the consequences are to the economy, the effects of our economy crashing don't need to spelled out, it destroys everything Labour fight for. if he had taken Smiths attitude then am sure his large online support would have argued he was being sensible.
Owen Smith "If the evidence shows Brexit will be a economic disaster then we should be able to reconsider"
Corbyn disagreed.

 

[SP]

Labour were only about 150 votes short of taking Wandsworth and were so close in places like Swindon.

Liverpool and Manchester now have no Tories.

If it wasnt for the Ukip collapse this election the Tories would have been decimated in the local elections thats already been factored into the Next election

And all of this done with none stop attacks on Labour and Jeremy for weeks.

Labour will win the next election.

Did you not notice the rather large amounts of attacks on the Tories too? Corbyn has not really been under that much attack in this campaign. Windrush coverage far exceeded the Labour anti-Semitism row. My council was not up for election, but I barely noticed Corbyn in the campaign period, let alone registered that he was being attacked, and I follow the news more closely than the average voter.

Excusing things in terms of a UKIP vote collapse does not cut it. The Tories got the ex-bigots to vote for them. They have more voters now. That is the only thing that counts in general election arithmetic.