Author Topic: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game  (Read 18771 times)

Offline Yorkykopite

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #80 on: December 19, 2017, 01:59:47 PM »
Exactly my thoughts as well, think I mentioned it in this thread.

I wonder what our possession stats look like until we get the first goal? If more often than not it's less than 60% there might be something more to this theory, but if we constantly have 65% or more, but back off (or the opposition changes game plan) after we score, I'm not sure it means as much.

Sorry Roger, you have did indeed already made the point!  There's certainly a logic to it. I very much doubt we'd have had a "meagre" 54% of the ball v Spartak had they not been forced to chase the game by conceding early goals.
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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #81 on: December 19, 2017, 02:04:59 PM »
Have you just joined the forum? PoP is Colin Pascoe.

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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #82 on: December 19, 2017, 05:37:34 PM »
I wonder if there's an in-built distortion in these statistics. It is interesting that the optimal amount of possession seems to be below 60 per cent, but one could argue this is not surprising since after a goal, certainly two, the opposition is no longer interested in sitting back and giving you the ball. Hence it will be rare for a team coasting at 2 or 3 goals to nil to dominate possession in the way they might be before the first goal goes in.  In other words it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The more goals you get the less you're going to dominate the ball.

Man City average 65% possession though. But they have more creative players than we do.
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Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #83 on: December 19, 2017, 05:40:09 PM »
Exactly my thoughts as well, think I mentioned it in this thread.

I wonder what our possession stats look like until we get the first goal? If more often than not it's less than 60% there might be something more to this theory, but if we constantly have 65% or more, but back off (or the opposition changes game plan) after we score, I'm not sure it means as much.

Easily found out. But the point is that regardless of how much possession we have in the other games - in the games where we overly dominate possession, we tend not to win. Which means that we don't have enough players capable of solving the problem of playing against packed defences who don't want to have any meaningful possession themselves.
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Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #84 on: December 19, 2017, 07:43:04 PM »
Man City average 65% possession though. But they have more creative players than we do.
But their idea is also to defend by having the ball and circulate it, isn’t? We are more willing to give up the ball, certainly the times we are ahead by 1-2 goals. Agree about the last part, no doubt that they are better than us at breaking teams down.
Easily found out. But the point is that regardless of how much possession we have in the other games - in the games where we overly dominate possession, we tend not to win. Which means that we don't have enough players capable of solving the problem of playing against packed defences who don't want to have any meaningful possession themselves.
Ok, but I have no idea where one might find that out. Again, agree with the conclusion that we need to do more to get through parked buses. Just not sure the possession stat is that meaningful, but could be wrong.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #85 on: December 19, 2017, 07:52:35 PM »
But their idea is also to defend by having the ball and circulate it, isn’t? We are more willing to give up the ball, certainly the times we are ahead by 1-2 goals. Agree about the last part, no doubt that they are better than us at breaking teams down.Ok, but I have no idea where one might find that out. Again, agree with the conclusion that we need to do more to get through parked buses. Just not sure the possession stat is that meaningful, but could be wrong.


It might not be meaningful as a stat-in-itself, but it certainly points to a certain impotence when teams are either happy to give us the majority of the ball, or we play so well that they can't get it back. Either way, for a team of our supposed quality, we should be beating teams when we have 65% possession or more, more frequently than we do. Having all of the possession isn't the cause of us not winning those games regularly, but it does point to a problem which IS the cause.
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Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #86 on: December 19, 2017, 07:54:53 PM »
Yeah, I’d go along what that.

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #87 on: December 20, 2017, 09:01:22 AM »
Without the stats and the question of cause and effect. You can't counter press when in pocession which takes out a big weapon for a Klopp team and then it comes down to to what extent we lack creativity. Right down our spine from goalkeeper to centre backs to Henderson Can and Gini we are weaker creativity wise than our rivals. The problem of lack of creativity when teams sit back isn't necessarily  one of lack of creativity with our attacking players
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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #88 on: December 30, 2017, 03:33:14 AM »
Van Dijk's ability on the ball is going to be massive in enabling us to switch play faster and generate overloads. Having Keita come in with his dribbling skills and direct style will also take opposition players out of the game and help us penetrate low blocks.

Very obvious why these two were Klopp's main targets.

Offline redmanraj

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #89 on: January 15, 2018, 04:46:44 PM »
Van Dijk's ability on the ball is going to be massive in enabling us to switch play faster and generate overloads. Having Keita come in with his dribbling skills and direct style will also take opposition players out of the game and help us penetrate low blocks.

Very obvious why these two were Klopp's main targets.
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Offline Miltonred

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #90 on: January 16, 2018, 10:12:17 PM »
It might not be meaningful as a stat-in-itself, but it certainly points to a certain impotence when teams are either happy to give us the majority of the ball, or we play so well that they can't get it back. Either way, for a team of our supposed quality, we should be beating teams when we have 65% possession or more, more frequently than we do. Having all of the possession isn't the cause of us not winning those games regularly, but it does point to a problem which IS the cause.
If teams are deliberately giving up possession then getting to 65%, especially in tied games is very easy to do. its kind of a self fulfilling statistic.
If we are in that situation and we score a goal, forcing our opponents to try to get more meaningful possession then we would see the likelihood of getting to 65% lower.

To a great degree the correlation is flawed.

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #91 on: January 16, 2018, 11:57:18 PM »
If teams are deliberately giving up possession then getting to 65%, especially in tied games is very easy to do. its kind of a self fulfilling statistic.

The statistic is that we tend to lose or draw most of our games when we have 65% possession or more. Conversely, we win the majority of our games when we have 55% or less possession. All it's doing is pointing out a certain phenomenon from which we might draw conclusions. From a statistics perspective, there might be a lot of gaps in the correlation, but from a pure football perspective, it points to a consistent inability to break teams down, from which we can then infer that some teams might be quite happy to let us have the ball, knowing full well we struggle against packed defenses. The footballing conclusion, then, would be to either drop off and let the other teams break out a bit (in order to unbalance them), or to keep pinging balls onto their back four from distance, and then fighting to win the second ball and counter-attack from there, where we will usually be closer to goal, and attacking some small imbalance in their defensive structure. But that's all it is - a small correlation and an inference that concerns possible tactics.


Quote
If we are in that situation and we score a goal, forcing our opponents to try to get more meaningful possession then we would see the likelihood of getting to 65% lower.

To a great degree the correlation is flawed.

I think if you go back and look at the games where we've drawn or lost with 65% or more possession, you will see that we've either scored first, and instead of sitting back and hitting on the break, we've continued to dominate possession; or, we've struggled to break a team down who then go on to score first, in which case we push forward more and expose ourselves to second and third goals on the break. The correlation may be flawed, but on the pitch there's a clear problem we have when we dominate games, not just this season, but across the length of Klopp's time with us. 65% is an arbitrary number I used simply because most games are 55-45 possession (IIRC), so 65% or more possession would indicate almost total dominance of the ball. The more balanced the game (or even imbalanced away from us), the more effective Gegenpressing is. The more imbalanced the game is in our favour, the less effective Gegenpressing is (and you can ONLY press when the other team has the ball). So given that we probably spend the vast majority of our tactical training time working on pressing, pressing triggers, and counter-attack patterns, in those games where we dominate the ball, we're mostly relying on our players being individually creative to open up the other team - and until recently, the only player we had who could really do that was Coutinho. So the further inference, then, is to either drop off more and let the other team play, so that our quick attackers have space to exploit - or recruit more playmakers and largely abandon Gegenpressing for a significant number of games per season.

But you may be right that the correlation is flawed, so perhaps you could show where the correlation is incorrect (as in, I'm a mathematics moron, so if I'm missing anything, I'm happy to be corrected on the stats :) )
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Offline Miltonred

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #92 on: January 18, 2018, 10:52:24 AM »
Your sample set for the correlation needs to be expanded to games where we had 65% or more possession up until we scored the first goal.
The reason for this is that the conclusion you draw seemingly fails to consider those situations sufficiently.

That said, the win loss draw stat does not lie. We have drawn far too many games we have dominated, so that stat points directly to a failure to breakdown organized and persistent defense.

I agree with your conclusion that we could mix up tactics, and would add shooting from distance to them. The sale of Coutinho IMO, weakens us further in this regard.

A sensational shot from distance bypasses, even the most stubborn, of defenses. Who will provide that now?
« Last Edit: January 18, 2018, 02:15:27 PM by Miltonred »

Offline PhaseOfPlay

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #93 on: January 18, 2018, 05:20:43 PM »
Your sample set for the correlation needs to be expanded to games where we had 65% or more possession up until we scored the first goal.
The reason for this is that the conclusion you draw seemingly fails to consider those situations sufficiently.

I don't think I drew any conclusions, other than football ones - i.e. we don't have the creativity to break teams down when we have a lot of the ball. I haven't once said that one thing causes the other.

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That said, the win loss draw stat does not lie. We have drawn far too many games we have dominated, so that stat points directly to a failure to breakdown organized and persistent defense.

This is the point I'm making. Without creativity, we need another way to go, rather than trying to break teams down with passing, because we don't really have the players to be able to do that. So maybe less of the ball, and let the other team out, and then we would be able to do what we're good at, which is counter-pressing and attacking space quickly and efficiently.

Quote
I agree with your conclusion that we could mix up tactics, and would add shooting from distance to them. The sale of Coutinho IMO, weakens us further in this regard.

Agreed. But also, driving into the box with the ball more, and "buying" some free kicks and possibly penalties.

Quote
A sensational shot from distance bypasses, even the most stubborn, of defenses. Who will provide that now?

No idea. But I would also suggest, tactically, that if we do get the first goal, that maybe we should play purely on the counter-attack afterwards, instead of continuing to dominate the ball. This goes back to your original point - the possession before the first goal is important to look at for sure, but the overall possession percentage in those games suggests that in the course of any game where we have a final total of 65% or more, we are unable to do anything with the cumulative possession we have, in order to break those teams down more than once.  It suggests there's a possible tactical game management issue, a lack of creativity, and/or a pattern of possession that doesn't take enough risks as the games go on (playing more low-risk safe passes than penetration passes that offer a higher chance of turnover but a greater chance of creating a chance).
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Offline Miltonred

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #94 on: January 18, 2018, 08:30:15 PM »
Agree with all your points.

I do believe we don't have a second plan of action  if it stays at 0-0 or even if the score line changes. At what point, for example on Sunday, would you have altered our set-up and tactics, to defend a lead?

I think some coaches would have done so at 1-0. Certainly many would have done it at 2-1. There are very few who don't even do it at 4-1.

Maybe we simply don't have a second idea, whether that is for attacking or defending?

Offline fatherjack

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #95 on: January 22, 2018, 11:32:32 AM »
Van Dijk's ability on the ball is going to be massive in enabling us to switch play faster and generate overloads. Having Keita come in with his dribbling skills and direct style will also take opposition players out of the game and help us penetrate low blocks.

Very obvious why these two were Klopp's main targets.


I haven't been on this place for quite some time but it is heartening to come back and right away see a very sensible post.
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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #96 on: January 27, 2018, 11:11:20 AM »
I hope this game today is not a repeat of the last one (or even of the Swansea game last week).

Offline redmanraj

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Re: Round Table: Liverpool FC v West Brom 0-0 – It's a numbers game
« Reply #97 on: January 27, 2018, 12:15:42 PM »
Agree with all your points.

I do believe we don't have a second plan of action  if it stays at 0-0 or even if the score line changes. At what point, for example on Sunday, would you have altered our set-up and tactics, to defend a lead?

I think some coaches would have done so at 1-0. Certainly many would have done it at 2-1. There are very few who don't even do it at 4-1.

Maybe we simply don't have a second idea, whether that is for attacking or defending?
Would have to agree with this; we seem to have only one way of playing and are still unable to break down teams who park the bus. Even more so, we seem to be incapable of shutting the door and defending a lead.