Topic: flight from Indonesia to Singapore loses contact with air traffic control

[Trada]

They are saying one of the bodies they found was wearing a life jacket.

[TepidT2O]

They are saying one of the bodies they found was wearing a life jacket.

Oh no, that doesn't sound good.

If it's true it sounds like they tried to ditch.  But why no communications?  Even total engine failure should see back up power systems.

[Red Beret]

Given the fact the pilots request to climb altitude wasn't approved immediately as he was approaching the storm cell or cloud, he may have reduced altitude in an attempt to avoid it, which may have brought about its own set of problems. From the aviation experts commenting on the story so far, it sounds as if the storm alone would have been very unlikely to cause a crash of this magnitude, which suggests pilot error was a significant factor.

The pilot may have decided not to wait for approval to climb altitude and run into problems as a consequence.  As you say, without the flight recorders there is only speculation and we should do our best to avoid that.

[the oxonian]

There was a bit on the news here in Perth, saying that there was a 'minimum' climb speed or the engines will stall and they speculated thats what could of happened here as the pilots tried to avoid the storm

[Alan_X]

Oh no, that doesn't sound good.

If it's true it sounds like they tried to ditch.  But why no communications?  Even total engine failure should see back up power systems.

As one of the experts said, the order is 'aviate, navigate, communicate'. In the Air France crash, which at the moment this resembles, the crew were struggling to save the plane and never issued a Mayday call.

And without information it's impossible to say that a life jacket means they tried to ditch. It could mean a whole load of things. If it was just one person, they may have decided to put it on themselves. The crew could have told the passengers to put on life jackets at any point in the crisis.

[Red Beret]

And without information it's impossible to say that a life jacket means they tried to ditch. It could mean a whole load of things. If it was just one person, they may have decided to put it on themselves. The crew could have told the passengers to put on life jackets at any point in the crisis.

And any flier will tell you that you don't inflate the jacket until you leave the plane.  Does the report say whether the jacket was inflated or not?

[Trada]

And any flier will tell you that you don't inflate the jacket until you leave the plane.  Does the report say whether the jacket was inflated or not?

No they didn't say not on the report I saw anyway.

[Party Phil]

And any flier will tell you that you don't inflate the jacket until you leave the plane.  Does the report say whether the jacket was inflated or not?

And any passenger who is panicking might decide to put on and inflate their life jacket if they think the plane is going to crash. Pretty inconclusive imho.

[Alan_X]

And any passenger who is panicking might decide to put on and inflate their life jacket if they think the plane is going to crash. Pretty inconclusive imho.

One unconfirmed report that one body out of seven recovered so far might have been wearing a life jacket.

[redgriffin73]

Horrific news, RIP to all lost.

Also unbelievably traumatic for the families to have to see those images on TV as it was happening.

[TepidT2O]

One unconfirmed report that one body out of seven recovered so far might have been wearing a life jacket.

True, we shouldn't speculate, but it is of course difficult not to.

The airfrance disaster does seem the most similar with the weather etc.

Hopefully they can find the data recorders quickly as atleast that helps bring closure to families.

[Red Beret]

Well I wasn't speculating in that regard.  I merely asked if anybody knew if this alleged body with the lifejacket had said jacket inflated or not. 

If such a jacket was inflated then the body could only have come from a relatively intact plane that the person escaped from and later died, or as has been said, they panicked, inflated the jacket inside the plane, but were thrown clear when the plane broke up on impact with the ocean.

[Trada]

The life jacket story has now been denied.

[TSC]

http://www.travelweekly.co.uk/Articles/2015/01/02/51655/steep+climb+theory+over+airasia+crash.html

The AirAsia aircraft lost in the Java Sea may have gone into an aerodynamic stall as the pilot climbed steeply to avoid a storm.

Officials have said the Airbus A320 was travelling at 32,000ft when it requested to climb to 38,000ft to avoid bad weather.

When air traffic controllers consented to allow it to climb to 34,000ft a few minutes later, they got no reply.

A source quoted by Reuters said that radar data appeared to show that the aircraft's "unbelievably" steep climb may have been beyond the A320's limits.

However, the unnamed source emphasised that more information was needed before a definitive conclusion could be reached.

The search for flight QZ8510 which crashed into the sea on Sunday is set to move underwater, with the arrival of specialist equipment.

A French crash investigation team will use sensitive acoustic detection devices to try locate the black box flight recorder.

The Airbus was flying from Surabaya in Indonesia to Singapore with 162 people on board when it vanished.

No survivors have been found and the cause of the crash remains unknown.

So far only 10 bodies have been found and brought ashore, with the search operation repeatedly held up by bad weather and rough seas, the BBC reported.

The head of Indonesia's search and rescue agency, Bambang Soelistyo, said that wreckage and bodies are spread over a 5km area of the Java Sea off Borneo.

The search was now focussing on an area of 1,575 nautical square miles of the Java Sea, he told reporters.

[Red Beret]

Hope nobody minds me saying this but that sounds like a rookie mistake, like the pilot panicked even.

[Alan_X]

Hope nobody minds me saying this but that sounds like a rookie mistake, like the pilot panicked even.

If the Air France case is anything to go by that would make sense. That was avoidable if they had just taken the right action. You'd think that the lessons learned in that disaster would be incorporated into all training though.

[The Gulleysucker]

...

It's speculative but entirely possible.

I got a book at Christmas about the phenomenal "Winkle" Brown.. Here's a list of the Aircraft he flew, a total unlikely ever to be equalled.

One of the things he mentioned was the (to me) surprisingly fine limits at altitude for many jet aircraft between optimum cruising speed and altitude and angle of incidence and wing chord for minimum drag designed for economy, and the point a serious and potentially unrecoverable stall and death corner can set in.

Get it wrong by just a few knots and you might suddenly have all the control responsiveness you'd have over being strapped to a 100 ton anvil in freefall. (His particular comments were in reference to the late 40's designed US B47 Stratojet, which other than its use of a shoulder wing, the rest of its basic design has had much influence on the design of commercial jet aircraft.)

In the place of practical pilot experience of such events, something I expect that few Airline pilots will probably experience in the large commercial planes they fly day to day outside of a simulator and live to tell the tale, heavy reliance is placed on sensors to attempt to warn of this situation arising in conjunction with a well rehearsed cockpit drill.

Hopefully the black box should give some indication of the sequence of events in this tragedy.

[TepidT2O]

It's speculative but entirely possible.

I got a book at Christmas about the phenomenal "Winkle" Brown.. Here's a list of the Aircraft he flew, a total unlikely ever to be equalled.

One of the things he mentioned was the (to me) surprisingly fine limits at altitude for many jet aircraft between optimum cruising speed and altitude and angle of incidence and wing chord for minimum drag designed for economy, and the point a serious and potentially unrecoverable stall and death corner can set in.

Get it wrong by just a few knots and you might suddenly have all the control responsiveness you'd have over being strapped to a 100 ton anvil in freefall. (His particular comments were in reference to the late 40's designed US B47 Stratojet, which other than its use of a shoulder wing, the rest of its basic design has had much influence on the design of commercial jet aircraft.)

In the place of practical pilot experience of such events, something I expect that few Airline pilots will probably experience in the large commercial planes they fly day to day outside of a simulator and live to tell the tale, heavy reliance is placed on sensors to attempt to warn of this situation arising in conjunction with a well rehearsed cockpit drill.

Hopefully the black box should give some indication of the sequence of events in this tragedy.

Very interesting!!

the flight windows of some of these planes are incredibly narrow...

From Wikipedia on the B-47

The performance of the Model 450 design was projected to be so good that the bomber would be as fast as fighters then on the drawing board, and so the only defensive armament was to be a tail turret with two .50 in (12.7 mm) Browning machine guns, which would in principle be directed by an automatic fire-control system. The two XB-47s were not fitted with the tail turrets as they were engineering and flight test aircraft; indeed, the prototypes had no combat equipment at all. The one problem with this early design was that at higher altitudes where the pure turbojet engines could produce decent fuel economy, the wing was very compromised, speed wise. At the top of the B-47's envelope, about 37,000 feet (11,000 m), the B-47 was in the "coffin corner". That means that at this level, which produced the most range at most weights due to fuel consumption, there was an envelope of 5 knots between maximum mach and stall speed. Since this airplane had a rudimentary autopilot at best, it meant that if the B-47 was going to cross the Atlantic ocean, it had to be flown this high and the pilot had to leave the autopilot OFF and needed to spend up to eight hours staring at the airspeed and manipulating the throttles in order to not fall from the sky. To put this in perspective, a modern Boeing 757 has over 50 knots of difference at even a very heavy weight at 41,000 feet. Fuel capacity was enormous, at 17,000 gal (64,400 l), more than triple the 5,000 gal (19,000 l) on the B-29 Superfortress. That meant that maintaining fuel trim to ensure a stable center of gravity in flight would be a very critical copilot duty. The total bombload capacity was to be 10,000 lb (4.5 metric tons). Production aircraft were to be equipped with state-of-the-art electronics for navigation, bombing, countermeasures, and turret fire control.

[The Gulleysucker]

...the flight windows of some of these planes are incredibly narrow...

Yes, it came as a surprise to me how small that gap is, I'd not really thought about it before until I read his book.

You get used to  (perhaps lulled into a complacency) seeing state of the art simply massive thrust fighter jets that can climb and then hover vertically on their tail pipes and do what seems impossible aerobatic maneuvers that it's easy to forget that these represent something totally different from the average commercial plane that's driven by the economics of efficient travel rather than superlative performance under all possible flight envelopes.

[Red Beret]

If the Air France case is anything to go by that would make sense. That was avoidable if they had just taken the right action. You'd think that the lessons learned in that disaster would be incorporated into all training though.

That was due the rookie co-pilot not telling the pilot or captain he was messing around with the flight stick wasn't it?  Plus the Captain wasn't on the flight deck until it was far too late.

[Broad Spectrum]

.

Very interesting, nice one for that.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30665499

Bad weather was the biggest factor in the crash of AirAsia flight QZ8501, the Indonesian weather agency believes.

The BMKG agency said initial analysis suggested icy conditions in the air had caused the engine to stall.

[Alan_X]

That was due the rookie co-pilot not telling the pilot or captain he was messing around with the flight stick wasn't it?  Plus the Captain wasn't on the flight deck until it was far too late.

He wasn't messing about.  The air speed indicator was affected by ice which started a sequence of events resulting in the co-pilot and then the senior pilot pulling the nose up putting the plane in a stall. What really did for them was that the nose was so far up and the angle of attack was so steep that the stall indicator stopped. When they dropped the nose the the stall indicator sounded again. When it hit the sea the angle of attack was at some crazy angle - 35 degrees or so.

It's unlikely that the Air Asia crash would be exactly the same but it shows how a sequence of events can develop, especially in severe bad weather.

[Red Beret]

Yeah, sorry, "messing about" does sound very flippant, doesn't it?  Apologies.

What I meant was the co-pilot was using the flight stick but not telling his colleagues what he was doing.  When he did, he was told to release the stick, but took it again a few minutes later and once more did not tell his colleagues what he was doing.

That's how I recall it from the flight recorder transcript?

[Niru Red4ever]

Yeah, sorry, "messing about" does sound very flippant, doesn't it?  Apologies.

What I meant was the co-pilot was using the flight stick but not telling his colleagues what he was doing.  When he did, he was told to release the stick, but took it again a few minutes later and once more did not tell his colleagues what he was doing.

That's how I recall it from the flight recorder transcript?

Thats what I recall too. The more experienced pilot didn't know the nose was being lifted up and so ignored the stall warning which was playing continuously.

The co-pilot took it once more later but by that time it was too late to recover anyway.

[skipper757]

Since it's being discussed, here's transcript of the AF447's CVR:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877

Also, an article I came across discussing stall training and how an unexpected event can really affect pilot performance, even though the concept to avoid stalls seems basic:

http://aviationweek.com/awin/opinion-aerodynamic-stall-can-prompt-brain-stall

Here's perhaps a very telling comment from the article:

"A recent FAA study showed that one-quarter of pilots exposed to an unexpected stall applied the template correctly. This study, intended to assess the training effectiveness of varying levels of stall representation in full-flight simulator math models, found that several of the line pilots who had previously been trained/briefed on this procedure, fought against the aerodynamics, exacerbating the stall."

[81a]

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/asia-pacific/2015/01/indonesia-threatens-cancel-airasia-licence-201513112443988534.html

Reports that Air Asia didn't have a license to fly that particular route on the day of crash.

How can you load up a plane in Airport A and fly to Airport B, in this day and age, without the required license?

[Alan_X]

Reports that Air Asia didn't have a license to fly that particular route on the day of crash.

How can you load up a plane in Airport A and fly to Airport B, in this day and age, without the required license?

Can we get confirmation from a credible source before speculating. We had half a page speculating on the life jacket story that turned out to be nonsense.

Thanks

[81a]

Can we get confirmation from a credible source before speculating. We had half a page speculating on the life jacket story that turned out to be nonsense.

Thanks

http://www.cnn.com/2015/01/03/world/airasia-unlicensed/

[Alan_X]

Ok having read the story it's clearly not related to the reasons for the crash. It's a paperwork issue. The airline is licensed to use the route but only during the week and not on Sundays.

[Broad Spectrum]

AirAsia QZ8501: 'Pings' detected in plane search

[Broad Spectrum]

AirAsia QZ8501 crash: Plane believed to have exploded as it hit the sea, as black boxes discovered


The AirAsia plane that disappeared more than two weeks ago over the Java sea is believed to have exploded as it hit the water, according to initial analysis of the wreckage, while a team of divers have now located both of the plane’s black boxes.

Indonesian navy divers managed to retrieve one of the boxes and locate the other underwater on Monday, marking a key development for investigators as they attempt to unravel what exactly caused the aircraft to plummet into the sea halfway through its journey...

[Red Beret]

Interesting choice of words.  I'd expect to hear the word "disintegrated", but not "exploded".

I'm probably reading too much into it though.

[Alan_X]

Interesting choice of words.  I'd expect to hear the word "disintegrated", but not "exploded".

I'm probably reading too much into it though.

From the article:

Supriyadi told reporters in Pangkalan Bun town on Borneo Island that the plane “exploded because of the pressure”.

“The cabin was pressurised and before the pressure of the cabin could be adjusted, it went down – boom. That explosion was heard in the area,” he said from the search headquarters.

Which is a daft thing to say. Cabins are 'pressurised' compared to the thin air at high altitude. For example at 40,000ft the cabin pressure is the equivalent of 8,000 feet (0.75 atmospheres) so they would not explode like a balloon. If anything it would implode at sea level.

It's just poor choice of words.

[MichaelA]

Or a poor translation

[exiledintheUSA]

With the data and voice recorders now recovered it will go a long way to detailing exactly what occurred between the request to ascend to 38,000FT was rejected and the time the aircraft hit the water.  From a professional standpoint I am really intrigued as to what data marks will be returned from the data recorder.

[Alan_X]

With the data and voice recorders now recovered it will go a long way to detailing exactly what occurred between the request to ascend to 38,000FT was rejected and the time the aircraft hit the water.  From a professional standpoint I am really intrigued as to what data marks will be returned from the data recorder.

I think one is located but not recovered. But yes, should be interesting.

[exiledintheUSA]

I think one is located but not recovered. But yes, should be interesting.

Very true, data recorder recovered, voice still to be.

[Hij]

Since it's being discussed, here's transcript of the AF447's CVR:

http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/aviation/crashes/what-really-happened-aboard-air-france-447-6611877

That still brings me out in a sweat. Poor bastards.

[Zoomers]

Very true, data recorder recovered, voice still to be.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30791524?OCID=fbasia

AirAsia cockpit voice recorder found - Indonesian officials

The retrieval comes a day after the first piece of the so-called black box, the flight data recorder, was also found and brought to shore.

The aircraft was flying from Surabaya in Indonesia to Singapore when it crashed on 28 December.

The two devices will help investigators understand more about what went wrong.

[exiledintheUSA]

Located the fuselage now, hope that closure will come to the famillies in terms of those still missing in the coming days.