Author Topic: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18  (Read 24006 times)

Offline Kashinoda

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Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« on: November 27, 2017, 12:52:22 am »
Noticed none of the usual posters have made one for this season.

I'll flush this out a bit more and keep it updated  :wave







« Last Edit: March 5, 2018, 10:30:13 am by Kashinoda »
:D

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #1 on: November 30, 2017, 12:09:54 am »
Updated, 4 wins in a row would be nice, leaving us on +6 by the time we play Arsenal.  :wave
:D

Offline Deo

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #2 on: November 30, 2017, 12:46:41 am »
Updated, 4 wins in a row would be nice, leaving us on +6 by the time we play Arsenal.  :wave

Really hope if we can do that!

But man, that run till the end is going to be brutally hard.
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Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2017, 01:32:50 am »
Really hope if we can do that!

But man, that run till the end is going to be brutally hard.

Not too daunting... 4 Losses, 6 draws and 14 wins puts us on the same points as last year. That's 2ppg, we're currently on 1.85ppg so just need to up our consistency a tad.
:D

Offline Medellin

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #4 on: November 30, 2017, 10:17:30 am »
Nice one K..

A big slap of perspective right here.
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Offline Bergersrightwingviews

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #5 on: November 30, 2017, 10:28:40 am »
Pretty amazing having it spelt out like that. Not losing very much. Dem draws though.
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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #6 on: November 30, 2017, 04:15:25 pm »
Thanks Kash!

Pretty amazing having it spelt out like that. Not losing very much. Dem draws though.

It's no worse than last season, fortunately. One more win out of the set, but now I'm wondering if the top four bar will be higher this year.

Offline Gods_Left_Boot

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #7 on: November 30, 2017, 04:26:56 pm »
Looking at the upcoming fixtures we really could go on a bit of a run and make up for some of the most disappointing result from last season (Bournemouth A, Swansea H). Only Arsenal away in the next 7 or so is not a fixture that we would be expected to win rather comfortably.
« Last Edit: November 30, 2017, 05:05:41 pm by Gods_Left_Boot »
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Offline JCB

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #8 on: November 30, 2017, 04:52:48 pm »
Cheers for picking this up Kash, been missing this thread...

... now I'm wondering if the top four bar will be higher this year.

on week 14 last year the points for 2nd-4th place was 31-30-30. This year it's 32-29-28.

Still too early to tell but it looks like it's around the same.

(we were 3rd then on g.d. above Man City so we're only 4 points off from that this time around on a chronological basis)

Offline Lone Star Red

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #9 on: November 30, 2017, 05:23:30 pm »
Crazy to see our GD is better as well considering we had a -8 GD from just two fixtures alone.
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Offline Crimson_Tank

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #10 on: November 30, 2017, 06:32:02 pm »
Cheers for this Kashinoda.
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Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #11 on: November 30, 2017, 07:50:07 pm »
We're +3 now, the main caveat here is that we won some very difficult games last season in Arsenal Away, Chelsea Away, Spurs Home, City Home which may be difficult to replicate this season.

To compensate, we may have to target to win the games we lost/drew with lower sides such as Swansea Home, Bournemouth Home and Away, West Ham Home and Burnley Away.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #12 on: November 30, 2017, 09:47:26 pm »
Here's my first season-to-go summary for this season:

Note that it's for match 13 (my data source is down so I've picked up from last years thread, & I didn't do match 14 last season).

As we all know, City are going on a record clip right now.  Off the top of my head, I believe Chelsea's 95 points is a PL 38 match record.

For PL spots, in the past, I've used 70 points as the target, as previously, no 5th place team had exceeded this....last season, Arsenal came 5th with 75 points so establishing a new high for this spot.  (I haven't done the PL spot summary this time, but I will start this up soon...this is just for info)

While City are well ahead of Chelsea's point total this time last season, positions 2-5 are slightly lagging last season, and Liverpool in 6th are 3 points ahead of last season's 6th place team, United (obviously, this is for the "top 6", not the real table, as historically, any other team in the mix now tends to fade away...ex Leicester 2015/6)

Offline Jack Slater

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #13 on: December 3, 2017, 10:05:57 am »
Despite all the (entirely justified) concerns about how many we're conceding, we have actually conceded 1 goal less over the first 15 games of this season compared to last.

Last season it was 20, and this season its 19.  Last season 9 teams conceded fewer in first 15 games (and 10 had conceded more).  This season only 8 teams have done better up to now (though only 8 have done worse).

Correspondingly, we have actually scored 4 fewer goals in first 15 games.

Last season, we were leading the league in goals scored at this stage with 37 (Arsenal 36, Chelsea 33 and Man City 32 being the only others to be averaging more than 2 per game).

This season we're only third best with 33 (exactly same as last season's third best, Chelsea).  Man U are second with 35 (so slightly worse than Arsenal last season).  Man C are an outlier with 44 goals before even playing their 15th game (they're theoretically on track for 119 or 120 over 38 games).

However, re away games only, both last season and this, we played 8 away games in our first 15 games.  Last season we scored 16 and conceded 14.  This season its 20 and 17.

So the perception that our defence is shakier, but our attack more potent, might be an accurate one if we confine the analysis just to away games.  However, overall, in the league, the stats don't quite bear it out.


For what it's worth (very little, of course) in 2013/14, after 15 games, we had scored 1 more goal than this.  (Man C had 41 goals after 15 games, and we were next highest).  We had conceded 1 fewer goal in 13/14 than we have this (and were joint 7th "best" for this stat).




Offline PoetryInMotion

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #14 on: December 3, 2017, 12:05:59 pm »
Despite all the (entirely justified) concerns about how many we're conceding, we have actually conceded 1 goal less over the first 15 games of this season compared to last.

Last season it was 20, and this season its 19.  Last season 9 teams conceded fewer in first 15 games (and 10 had conceded more).  This season only 8 teams have done better up to now (though only 8 have done worse).

Correspondingly, we have actually scored 4 fewer goals in first 15 games.

Last season, we were leading the league in goals scored at this stage with 37 (Arsenal 36, Chelsea 33 and Man City 32 being the only others to be averaging more than 2 per game).

This season we're only third best with 33 (exactly same as last season's third best, Chelsea).  Man U are second with 35 (so slightly worse than Arsenal last season).  Man C are an outlier with 44 goals before even playing their 15th game (they're theoretically on track for 119 or 120 over 38 games).

However, re away games only, both last season and this, we played 8 away games in our first 15 games.  Last season we scored 16 and conceded 14.  This season its 20 and 17.

So the perception that our defence is shakier, but our attack more potent, might be an accurate one if we confine the analysis just to away games.  However, overall, in the league, the stats don't quite bear it out.


For what it's worth (very little, of course) in 2013/14, after 15 games, we had scored 1 more goal than this.  (Man C had 41 goals after 15 games, and we were next highest).  We had conceded 1 fewer goal in 13/14 than we have this (and were joint 7th "best" for this stat).

Probably because Anfield is a fortress again. We've conceded 2 goals in 7 games with 5 clean-sheets.

Offline Vinay

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #15 on: December 4, 2017, 07:45:24 am »
Yes, but you can't be conceding 19 goals in 15 games if you have any aspirations.

Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #16 on: December 4, 2017, 08:41:55 am »
Yes, but you can't be conceding 19 goals in 15 games if you have any aspirations.
Agreed, but 9 of those are from two games when we fell apart though. Of course that could happen again, so we need to improve.

Cheers for starting the thread, Kashinoda.

Offline McrRed

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #17 on: December 10, 2017, 01:21:32 pm »
Cheers K JP and others. I wondered where this thread was. Perfect counterpart to the APLT.

Offline markedasred

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #18 on: December 10, 2017, 01:30:46 pm »
We will have a 100+ goal season, and they are the fun ones.
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Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #19 on: December 12, 2017, 04:06:56 pm »
Updated.

The Blue Shite ruined the momentum a bit.

Need two wins on the bounce for +4 points before Arsenal.
:D

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #20 on: December 14, 2017, 01:53:05 pm »
Updated.

Goes without saying that it would take a complete collapse for City not to win the title.

From the last summary at match 13, the teams have pretty much tracked to the ppg other than Chelsea have been a bit stronger and Arsenal a bit weaker.

We've overtaken Arsenal & caught up to Spurs, lost slightly to Chelsea & United

Offline Vinay

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #21 on: December 18, 2017, 10:34:07 am »
Are we on course to improve on our defense, ie number of goals conceded? I reckon we could end up with only 40 conceded. We could.
And if we score 100, then that will be brilliant.

Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #22 on: December 18, 2017, 12:05:08 pm »
Updated after Bournemouth, avoiding a loss at Arsenal would put us in good shape before we look to recoup points against Swansea and Burnely.

Are we on course to improve on our defense, ie number of goals conceded? I reckon we could end up with only 40 conceded. We could.
And if we score 100, then that will be brilliant.

Current Season:

Goals For: 38
Goalst Against: 20
GD: 18

Last Season

Goals For: 30
Goalst Against: 18
GD: 12


So on paper it's worse, but the caveat is we ship 9 in two games against Spurs and City which skew the results a bit.


:D

Offline kennedy81

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #23 on: December 18, 2017, 12:18:07 pm »
Plus we've been rotating more, so presumably we'll see the benefits of that in the coming months. January/February was a disaster last season, plus we had a fixture pile up with the League cup quarters and semis. We were beaten 6 times across Jan and Feb last season in league and cups.

Offline Roger Federer

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #24 on: December 18, 2017, 12:49:55 pm »
Updated after Bournemouth, avoiding a loss at Arsenal would put us in good shape before we look to recoup points against Swansea and Burnely.

Current Season:

Goals For: 38
Goalst Against: 20
GD: 18

Last Season

Goals For: 30
Goalst Against: 18
GD: 12


So on paper it's worse, but the caveat is we ship 9 in two games against Spurs and City which skew the results a bit.



On the whole, I think we defend better this season as a team. Still lots of work to do and who knows if we'll keep it up the whole season, but I think it's encouraging for the second half of the season.

Offline pasmob

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #25 on: December 19, 2017, 03:09:29 pm »
Updated after Bournemouth, avoiding a loss at Arsenal would put us in good shape before we look to recoup points against Swansea and Burnely.

Current Season:

Goals For: 38
Goalst Against: 20
GD: 18

Last Season

Goals For: 30
Goalst Against: 18
GD: 12


So on paper it's worse, but the caveat is we ship 9 in two games against Spurs and City which skew the results a bit.

On paper it's worse, but improvement can be seen in some areas e.g. clean sheets (8 this year, 5 last).

Offline Sudden Death Draft Loser

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #26 on: December 19, 2017, 03:23:43 pm »
Updated after Bournemouth, avoiding a loss at Arsenal would put us in good shape before we look to recoup points against Swansea and Burnely.

Current Season:

Goals For: 38
Goalst Against: 20
GD: 18

Last Season

Goals For: 30
Goalst Against: 18
GD: 12


So on paper it's worse, but the caveat is we ship 9 in two games against Spurs and City which skew the results a bit.

What about a points comparison?
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Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #27 on: December 19, 2017, 03:25:03 pm »
What about a points comparison?

It's at the bottom of the table mate, we're currently +2 on points compared to last year.
:D

Offline Sudden Death Draft Loser

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #28 on: December 19, 2017, 03:34:09 pm »
It's at the bottom of the table mate, we're currently +2 on points compared to last year.

So it's actually an improvement.
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Offline Kashinoda

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #29 on: December 19, 2017, 04:06:32 pm »
So it's actually an improvement.

Yes, we really should have been on +6 after Everton and Brom, would have meant we could lose to Arsenal and still be 3 points better off.

Any result against Arsenal isn't the end of the world, a draw means we're breaking even points wise. But we should be looking gain points on the Swansea and Burnley results from last year, two wins will be +6.
:D

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #30 on: December 19, 2017, 04:07:25 pm »
Updated title race summary.

City can match Chelsea's 38 match Premier League record of 95 points without breaking a sweat.....the title is theirs, probably at 95-98 points at that!

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #31 on: December 19, 2017, 04:14:42 pm »
Fight for the Champions League spots:

In the past, I've used 70 points as the threshold level for this, as no 5th placed team in 38 match PL history had exceeded this total. 

Last season, Arsenal in 5th managed 75 points, so I'm using this as the threshold this time around, although, currently, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal & Spurs are all tracking below what the respective 3rd through 6th positioned teams were doing at this point last season.

It is my view, that United & Chelsea will have no problem achieving 75 points, so it's really only 1 slot available for ourselves, Arsenal or Spurs to compete for.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #32 on: December 19, 2017, 05:16:35 pm »
Summary of results, top 10 vs bottom 10

Offline Bergersrightwingviews

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #33 on: December 19, 2017, 06:00:48 pm »
Hmmm. So we have fewer points in 6 of those games and more points than last season in just 5 games with a net uplift of two points. More points is more points though I suppose.
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Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #34 on: December 19, 2017, 06:12:22 pm »
Here's Chelsea's results summary:

More wins & losses, less draws.

They'e only won 2 by 3 or more goals, whereas we've won 7 in this manner.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #35 on: December 19, 2017, 06:30:18 pm »
Arsenal:  Great home form, pretty poor away, 2 big wins.


Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #36 on: December 19, 2017, 06:44:12 pm »
Spurs: Very good against the bottom half, dire against the top, especially away, 4 big wins.

Offline JP-65

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #37 on: December 19, 2017, 07:51:39 pm »
To complete the deck, United:

Very good against the bottom half, very good against the top half, ex the top 3, 5 big wins.

Interesting that we've the 2nd most dominant wins after City

Offline willss

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #38 on: December 20, 2017, 07:49:14 am »
Rather than dominant wins that still only release 3 points, I'm noticing that we struggle to win tight games by one goal.

Team           WINS 1 GOAL   DRAWS
Liverpool        2               7
Spurs           3               4
Arsenal           4               3
Chelsea           6               2

Offline campioni

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Re: Results Comparison Thread 2017/18
« Reply #39 on: December 20, 2017, 09:02:13 am »
Updated title race summary.

City can match Chelsea's 38 match Premier League record of 95 points without breaking a sweat.....the title is theirs, probably at 95-98 points at that!

So with 20 games to go City can get to 90 points by averaging less than 2 points per game. Thats mental.