I worry that if the Tories win they’ll have gained some people from UKIP/Brexit Party and then we really are looking at a government on the far right of the spectrum. Those “moderates” will be replaced somehow.
The vast majority of the white/very pale blue marginal 'Leave' seats are Tory (especially the further south). Commuter belt, towns and cities with functioning economies and many relatively socially liberal captured back from LibDems/Labour since the early 2000s by the 'compassionate conservatism' under Cameron.
A hard right Tory party, represented on campaign by Boris "fuck business" Johnson, Mogg, Raab, McVey etc is going to lose seats across southern/middle England.
Polls are weighted by how 'likely to vote' respondents declare themselves (to avoid discrepancies polls used to have without that weighting and thus overestimating 'weak' support = votes). All that should be needed is a half decent Labour campaign with no major fuckups, for Lib Dems in particular to swallow moderate Tory seats in the south.
One thing we (and pundits) haven't considered yet is whether GoNU might come back into play now, particularly if Johnson forces a VoNC (after failing under FTPA). There are 22 fewer Tory MPs than there were yesterday. They're still very unlikely to put Corbyn into No. 10 even for 10 minutes - but someone like Ken Clarke is no longer a Tory grandee. It's easier for Labour to support him as a caretaker Stop No Deal PM than it was last week.
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