Topic: The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20

[Prof]

The Alternative Premier League Table 2019-20

This is a continuation of the last eight APLT threads which ran over the last eight seasons and can be found here:
2011-12 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=278916.
2012-13 http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=296309.0
2013-14http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=306705.0
2014-15http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=315567.0
2015-16http://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=322215
2016-17https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=329366.0
2017-18https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=336191
2018-19
https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340730

For those of you who are new to the APLT, or those who need a reminder of the model, the APLT makes an assumption that in order to win the league title, a team needs to win 90 points for the season.  This can be achieved by winning all home matches, the seven ‘easiest’ away matches (the three promoted teams and the 14th-17th ranked teams from the previous season) and draw the 12 remaining away matches.  I refer to these as the ‘par results’.  As in golf, par will be achieved more often than not, but sometimes points are dropped or gained in relation to par.

The fixture list below for the top six teams from last season indicates the ‘hardest’ matches which are all par 1s, with the remaining fixtures all par 3s.


Over the season, I will plot the results in relation to par for all the teams featured on a graph (an example of last season’s completed graph is below).  If a team plays to par, the line on the graph will be horizontal, whereas dropped points will lead to a negative gradient and gained points a positive gradient.





The green depreciating line reflects a drop of 0.5 points per game (dropping to 19 points below par by game 38) to illustrate a 71 point season, a reasonable estimation of the points needed to achieve a top four finish.  Any team with ambitions to finish top four needs to be above this green line by the end of the season.

I’ll do my best to keep this up-to-date as best as possible as the season progresses and I hope it illustrates the impact of results on our season.

I'll also try to send a tweet when I do an update @RawkProf



This excellent post from Nessy is well worth reading if you are new to this....

[Suareznumber7]

YES.... the best thread on this site. 

Thanks in advance for all the work you put into this thread Prof

[BoRed]

FFS, two points behind already.

[Prof]

YES.... the best thread on this site. 

Thanks in advance for all the work you put into this thread Prof

[Mint]

Thanks Prof, love this thread.

Did you mean to post the other chart? Your description seems to suggest so.

[NHRed]

Prof, one minor suggestion for your fixture list...maybe italicize the fixtures against the other top 6?  Those are the matches where the par values are different for the two sides; it's impossible for both sides to play to par in that match.  Chelsea away, if we play to par, Chelsea is -2 to par; whereas if they play to par it's -1 for us.  Those are also, by the logic of the table, the riskiest par 3's for the home side.

[Prof]

Thanks Prof, love this thread.

Did you mean to post the other chart? Your description seems to suggest so.

Oops

Yes i did. I'll fix it now... I didn't even bother looking 

Sorted... Thanks for pointing it out 

[Prof]

Prof, one minor suggestion for your fixture list...maybe italicize the fixtures against the other top 6?  Those are the matches where the par values are different for the two sides; it's impossible for both sides to play to par in that match.  Chelsea away, if we play to par, Chelsea is -2 to par; whereas if they play to par it's -1 for us.  Those are also, by the logic of the table, the riskiest par 3's for the home side.

What do others think?  I'm happy to make an amendment if it adds value.  I'm not sure italics will stand out enough, but I can play around to highlight them in a different way if people generally want this.

[vagabond]

Man that graph from last year just broke my heart all over again

[Prof]

[Thush]

I put this together to help explain the APLT scoring system to myself, to show how the PL points related to the APLT points for each result. Thought it might be useful to share.

If any of the numbers are wrong, I'll change, but I think that's correct.

[Morgana]

Personally think City could drop points against Tottenham, Bournemouth, and Norwich City. The latter looked good against us in the second half, and I think they took some valuable lessons away from that match and will kick on to a top ten place this season. Farke is a gem. Tottenham look good now that they've strengthened and are a decent second half team (City struggled in the 2nd v. West Ham [who were proper shite]); Bournemouth has one of ours who wants to prove himself. Maybe this is all wishful thinking on my part but I expect great things from these three.

[farawayred]

Thanks, Prof! Always looking forward to this thread.

[ChaChaMooMoo]

Liverpool won Norwich at home. --> 3 points in reality. Par 3 from the table. ---> Sum is 0.
City won West Ham at away. --> 3 points in reality. Par 1 from the table. ---> Sum is +2.
Arsenal won Newcastle at away. --> 3 points in reality. Par 1 from the table. ---> Sum is +2.
Spurs won Villa at home. --> 3 points in reality. Par 3 from the table. ---> Sum is 0.
United won Chelsea at home. --> 3 points in reality. Par 3 from table. ---> Sum is 0.
Chelsea lost to United at away. --> 0 points in reality. Par 1 from table. ---> Sum is -1.

*Looks at Prof's post of the played and sum table*

Yes! I got how this table works finally. 

[Prof]

I put this together to help explain the APLT scoring system to myself, to show how the PL points related to the APLT points for each result. Thought it might be useful to share.

If any of the numbers are wrong, I'll change, but I think that's correct.

I like that.  Thanks for sharing.  Hopefully that'll help anyone who doesn't follow the written explanation.

[Ycuzz]

As always; thanks to all contributors to these threads, much appreciated.

[Iska]

Much as I’ve loved past APLT threads, looking back this wasn’t actually useful last year - for us and City the points accumulation doesn’t bear any real resemblance to the model at the moment.

[Perham]

Much as I’ve loved past APLT threads, looking back this wasn’t actually useful last year - for us and City the points accumulation doesn’t bear any real resemblance to the model at the moment.

Maybe if we have another season of us and city going way past 90 points it might be time to increase the bar?

[Prof]

Much as I’ve loved past APLT threads, looking back this wasn’t actually useful last year - for us and City the points accumulation doesn’t bear any real resemblance to the model at the moment.

I know what you mean, but the other way to think about it is (using golf analogy), you need to make more birdies to win... The Masters isn't won with level par.  I think it's really difficult to change the model (I've looked) with the small sample size of high point total seasons.

It was only very late in the season (last 9 or 10 games) man city went above par.  If we get a situation where the points totals look high for two or more teams... I'll try and review mid season.

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Matchweek 1

[RooiBefok]

APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 1

[RooiBefok]

Table Comparison : Matchweek 1

[RooiBefok]

APLT Revolving Par : Matchweek 1

[Iska]

I know what you mean, but the other way to think about it is (using golf analogy), you need to make more birdies to win... The Masters isn't won with level par.  I think it's really difficult to change the model (I've looked) with the small sample size of high point total seasons.

It was only very late in the season (last 9 or 10 games) man city went above par.  If we get a situation where the points totals look high for two or more teams... I'll try and review mid season.

I don’t think you can or should try to.  It’s just that where a team is dropping only 14 or 15 points, those dropped points are going to be more-or-less at random - there aren’t going to be a dozen harder games for Pep’s City because they win them all.  There isn’t going to be a sensible handicap rule you can apply if they’re as likely to slip up at home to Palace as away at United.

I expect it was as useful as ever for CL qualification btw, it’s just that I wasn’t interested in that.

[Sharado]

I know what you mean, but the other way to think about it is (using golf analogy), you need to make more birdies to win... The Masters isn't won with level par.  I think it's really difficult to change the model (I've looked) with the small sample size of high point total seasons.

It was only very late in the season (last 9 or 10 games) man city went above par.  If we get a situation where the points totals look high for two or more teams... I'll try and review mid season.

I'd be amazed if 90 points was enough to win it this year, for what it's worth. I think 95 is the base, for as long as that bald prick is in charge at city at least.

[moloch]

Man that graph from last year just broke my heart all over again

It really does, doesn't it. Also looking that it's obvious that it was the other top teams that bottled it against City..

[KurtVerbose]

*cough*

[flashman]

Thanks prof, bookmarking the page.

[Sharado]

It really does, doesn't it. Also looking that it's obvious that it was the other top teams that bottled it against City..

Particularly in the run in. It all hinged on that game v spurs in the champs league for me. I can't help but think if that result goes the other way then the league result  between spurs and city goes the other way [or is a draw], the league title goes the other way - and possibly even the european cup goes the other way.

Ah well, wasn't so bad really was it?

[gorgepir]

Week 32 for LFC is Manchester City away, but also Manchester City home for Chelsea?

[Prof]

Week 32 for LFC is Manchester City away, but also Manchester City home for Chelsea?

Ah thanks for spotting

I'll have a look.  I think when fixtures changed last season it screwed the formulae up.  It'll be a quick fix.

[Prof]

Ah thanks for spotting

I'll have a look.  I think when fixtures changed last season it screwed the formulae up.  It'll be a quick fix.

If anyone wants to check, that'd be appreciated 

[drmick]

Thanks prof, bookmarking the page.

Why would you need to bookmark the page?

[Redwhiteandnotblue]

Liverpool won Norwich at home. --> 3 points in reality. Par 3 from the table. ---> Sum is 0.
City won West Ham at away. --> 3 points in reality. Par 1 from the table. ---> Sum is +2.
Arsenal won Newcastle at away. --> 3 points in reality. Par 1 from the table. ---> Sum is +2.
Spurs won Villa at home. --> 3 points in reality. Par 3 from the table. ---> Sum is 0.
United won Chelsea at home. --> 3 points in reality. Par 3 from table. ---> Sum is 0.
Chelsea lost to United at away. --> 0 points in reality. Par 1 from table. ---> Sum is -1.

*Looks at Prof's post of the played and sum table*

Yes! I got how this table works finally. 

I'm not surprised you've taken this long; you don't know the difference between a sum and a difference

[Ghost Town]

Why would you need to bookmark the page?

Why not?

Mind you, just posting here means it shows up in ones personal updated topics list.

Easily my favourite thread in the Liverpool section. Can't wait for the first graph, our weekly rise and Man U's droop off the bottom of the graph. For a laugh can we include Everton this season as well?

[Yorkshire-Red]

Didn't these worms used to be curly? They're not so pretty now they're jagged.

[RooiBefok]

APLT Full Table : Matchweek 2

[RooiBefok]

APLT Analysis & Extrapolations : Matchweek 2

[RooiBefok]

APLT Table Comparison : Matchweek 2

[RooiBefok]

APLT Revolving Par : Matchweek 2