Topic: Local Elections May 4th 2017

[redmark]

Just think about that.... that would be 30 seats worse than Michael foot ... and you think he'd cling on ... and you'd probably be right.

180 would require quite a few more English seats than Foot won (when the party still dominated Wales and did well in Scotland), which is why I think it's horribly optimistic. At the moment, I wouldn't be surprised by anything in the 140-160 range.

[Gerry Attrick]

The areas voting this time were largely Tory though weren't they?

Labour do have to win in those areas to win the GE and there have been some very bad results but it's not the end of the world.

The Tories gained Derbyshire from Labour and they gained Lancashire from NOC (Labour had the most seats in 2013). Northumberland, Cumbria and Nottinghamshire are all NOC, but Labour doesn't even have the most seats in those councils now. Just shit results for Labour everywhere you look.

[JackWard33]

Most of that vote share goes to left and centre parties. That is on top of a turnout that is also going to be higher with the sorts of people that will vote Tory (the old). If you factor in likely Labour to Tory votes on account of Corbyn, the idea that the country has shifted right and its basically the end for centre and left of centre parties is clearly a bit mad.

There are the voter base out there for Labour. Too bad its utterly useless.

Honestly I have no idea how the country breaks down left and right. I'm just saying these are terrible results for the centre and left and point to a massive landslide for the right in a month. Beyond that I have no clue

[Wabaloolah]

180 would require quite a few more English seats than Foot won (when the party still dominated Wales and did well in Scotland), which is why I think it's horribly optimistic. At the moment, I wouldn't be surprised by anything in the 140-160 range.

Agree that's the likely number as there'll be 0 in Scotland and probably around 20 in Wales

[Wabaloolah]

The areas voting this time were largely Tory though weren't they?

Labour do have to win in those areas to win the GE and there have been some very bad results but it's not the end of the world.

Not the end of the World, the Tories are going to get a huge majority to do exactly as they please and nobody will be able to stop them.  It may not be the actual end of the world but it's not far off, look what's happening with North Korea now the lunatic is in charge of the Assylum

[Danny Boys Dad]

Not the end of the World, the Tories are going to get a huge majority to do exactly as they please and nobody will be able to stop them.  It may not be the actual end of the world but it's not far off, look what's happening with North Korea now the lunatic is in charge of the Assylum

You're assuming that these results mean that the Tories are going to win the GE. That might be the end of the world but we're not there yet.

[Zeb]

I know these were local elections but those turnout figures are a tragic indictment of the lack of political engagement in the UK.

Yeah. On the bright side, if other places get more used to it as London has done then turnout and engagement should rise. (London was up to 45% turnout last year). Also glass half-full is that predictions were for turnout to be as low as 15%, as has happened for other new elections. Just hope these new mayors are able to be effective on the concerns people have rather than just ending up as being show pony positions.

---

Burnham's just been announced as Mayor of Manchester. And as it's early, I'm going to guess he got over 50% of the vote.

edit: yeah, 63.4% of the vote. 200k more than the Tory.

[Gerry Attrick]

You're assuming that these results mean that the Tories are going to win the GE. That might be the end of the world but we're not there yet.

Surely you don't think otherwise?

[Libertine]

Anyone expecting much LD success against a big Tory swing would seem seriously misled. General Election may well be equally free of joy for the LDs for similar reasons. (That projected national share is comparable to Thatcher in 1983 and 1987.)

Some other factors in play though.

Lib Dem vote was seriously squeezed in 2015 - they lost many seats which were really strong liberal areas. Partly due to coalition effect (won't be much of an issue this time), partly Tory strategy of targetting seats to avoid a SNP-dominated Labour government - no such fears this time as Tories will win easily.

Add Brexit and collapsing Labour vote and opportunities are there.

The Tory-UKIP merger is the killer though, could well limit the gains.

[Mr Mingebag Squid]

What I don't understand, and I'm by no means an expert on Politics, but nearly everyone and everywhere I go, people hate the Tories - so how are they managing to get all these votes? Is it just that people aren't voting? Is the opposition vote being spread across too many other parties?

[redmark]

What I don't understand, and I'm by no means an expert on Politics, but nearly everyone and everywhere I go, people hate the Tories - so how are they managing to get all these votes? Is it just that people aren't voting? Is the opposition vote being spread across too many other parties?

Most people who talk about politics hate the Tories.

Many people who don't talk about politics vote Tory.

The vast majority of people don't talk about politics.

[Purple Red]

You're assuming that these results mean that the Tories are going to win the GE. That might be the end of the world but we're not there yet.

The thing is, if people aren't enthused enough to vote Labour locally they're probably not going to be enthused enough to vote for them at the General Election. People tend to vote in local elections in a similar way to they vote at the General.

[KillieRed]

Tories are a shower of c*nts, voted for by c*nts.

They might be deluded selfish c*nts or just ignorant c*nts. Either way they are still c*nts.*











*My degree did not go to waste in composing that gem of inspiration and insight.

[Elmo!]

The Tories won a seat in Ferguslie Park in Paisley, the most deprived ward in the UK apparently. 

In case anyone wasn't aware Scotland uses multimember wards using STV so the Tories weren't the biggest party, he sneaked in as the last member out of 4.

[Danny Boys Dad]

The thing is, if people aren't enthused enough to vote Labour locally they're probably not going to be enthused enough to vote for them at the General Election. People tend to vote in local elections in a similar way to they vote at the General.

Local elections always have poor turnouts compared to general elections don't they? Whether that is a comfort or not I'm not sure

[Purple Red]

Local elections always have poor turnouts compared to general elections don't they? Whether that is a comfort or not I'm not sure

It's clearly different in England. I'm from Northern Ireland and the turnout is usally much higher at local elections than 25% if I recall correctly.

[killer-heels]

Only 5000 votes in the West Mids Mayoral gig. Conservatives in the lead at the moment.

[SP]

Tories tend to be tight bastards that don't spend on services. They tend to get less votes locally than nationally, as people like their local services. The likelihood is that the local showing is stronger than can be expected at the general next month.

Labour are getting towards pity fuck territory. The Tories have polled so strongly that there is the risk of the electorate shying away from giving them a stonking majority. Labour's saving grace may be just how pathetic they were these elections.

[TravisBickle]

Tories tend to be tight bastards that don't spend on services. They tend to get less votes locally than nationally, as people like their local services. The likelihood is that the local showing is stronger than can be expected at the general next month.

Labour are getting towards pity fuck territory. The Tories have polled so strongly that there is the risk of the electorate shying away from giving them a stonking majority. Labour's saving grace may be just how pathetic they were these elections.

 I think the opposite. I think lots of people who might have voted Labour will actually choose not to because they think it's pointless or just don't want to be associated with such a sad bunch of embarrassing fucking losers.

[Danny Boys Dad]

I think the opposite. I think lots of people who might have voted Labour will actually choose not to because they think it's pointless or just don't want to be associated with such a sad bunch of embarrassing fucking losers.

That didn't seem to hold UKIP back until now

[SP]

That didn't seem to hold UKIP back until now

Or does UKIP represent the transition from charismatic Frottage to the embarrassing fucking loser meff. Without the figurehead glossing over the lunatics, they are polling truly.

[TravisBickle]

That didn't seem to hold UKIP back until now

 I'm being serious. A lot of people are going to be embarrassed to say they voted for Corbyn's Labour. Its not going to determine how I vote, but I'm going to be genuinely ashamed when I have to tell people I voted for this clusterfuc of a party.

[So… Howard Philips]

Or does UKIP represent the transition from charismatic Frottage to the embarrassing fucking loser meff. Without the figurehead glossing over the lunatics, they are polling truly.

So Nuttall is now, officially, the "Embarrassing fucking loser bad Bootle meff"?

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Just seen the Tories got 20% of the Liverpool metro mayoral vote, fuck me thats bad for labour

[Danny Boys Dad]

I'm being serious. A lot of people are going to be embarrassed to say they voted for Corbyn's Labour. Its not going to determine how I vote, but I'm going to be genuinely ashamed when I have to tell people I voted for this clusterfuc of a party.

I don't really get that, voting Labour is nothing to be ashamed of. Voting Tory is something to be ashamed of, or voting Lib Dem in 2010 and getting the Tories. I'd never leave the house again if I'd done that.

[Trada]

Seems a lot of the experts are saying it isn't as bad as it looks

If people voted the same way in the General election Tories would have about a 40 seat majority.

So still plenty of time to turn it around and a lot more people will vote in the general election of course.

[Danny Boys Dad]

Just seen the Tories got 20% of the Liverpool metro mayoral vote, fuck me thats bad for labour

It's not when you think of the area covered, lots and lots of Tories hidden away out there.

[Jonny-B]

Seems a lot of the experts are saying it isn't as bad as it looks

If people voted the same way in the General election Tories would have about a 40 seat majority.

So still plenty of time to turn it around and a lot more people will vote in the general election of course.

Which experts? Edit Sky News are saying 48 with these figures.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

I don't really get that, voting Labour is nothing to be ashamed of. Voting Tory is something to be ashamed of, or voting Lib Dem in 2010 and getting the Tories. I'd never leave the house again if I'd done that.

really? Voting for this lot in charge of labour is absolutely embarrassing, on a par with voting Tory in 1997 or an American who voted for bush the second time

It's not when you think of the area covered, lots and lots of Tories hidden away out there.

Was a 1% swing to Tory which isn't good seeing as this region is a labour/Corbyn stronghold

[SP]

Which experts? Edit Sky News are saying 48 with these figures.

Current working majority is 17.  The Tories will gain more than 15 seats.

[B0151?]

Was a 1% swing to Tory which isn't good seeing as this region is a labour/Corbyn stronghold

What's more surprising is how pathetic the Lib Dem vote was

[Danny Boys Dad]

really? Voting for this lot in charge of labour is absolutely embarrassing, on a par with voting Tory in 1997 or an American who voted for bush the second time

Not as bad as voting for Trump though

Was a 1% swing to Tory which isn't good seeing as this region is a labour/Corbyn stronghold

As well as Tory Tories there are also some UKIPs about who presumably went off and voted Tory this time.

What's more surprising is how pathetic the Lib Dem vote was

Given that part of the area has a Lib Dem MP and the lib dems have support in Liverpool as well

[B0151?]

really? Voting for this lot in charge of labour is absolutely embarrassing, on a par with voting Tory in 1997 or an American who voted for bush the second time

Not voting for 'this lot' though. Voting for my local Labour MP. And a huge Tory majority isn't good for anyone even with Corbyn in charge (which hopefully he won't be soon enough).

[TravisBickle]

I don't really get that, voting Labour is nothing to be ashamed of. Voting Tory is something to be ashamed of, or voting Lib Dem in 2010 and getting the Tories. I'd never leave the house again if I'd done that.

I think it is something to be ashamed of (in a personal sense). Corbyn is not only grossly incompetent but morally repugnant in my view. Having spent two years slating him, I'm going to put a tick next to Labour's name and essentially say "this is alright."

I'd be voting Lib Dem if I didn't feel loyalty to my Labour MP. No doubt about it.

 Tories win the West Midlands btw. Corbynism.

[killer-heels]

Conservatives win the West Midlands Mayoral gig by just 4000 votes.

Thats a big'un.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Not voting for 'this lot' though. Voting for my local Labour MP. And a huge Tory majority isn't good for anyone even with Corbyn in charge (which hopefully he won't be soon enough).

true, can see if you have a good constituency MP

Conservatives win the West Midlands Mayoral gig by just 4000 votes.

Thats a big'un.

But it's still not that bad...

[Danny Boys Dad]

Conservatives win the West Midlands Mayoral gig by just 4000 votes.

Thats a big'un.

Is that where the Tory candidate spent £1m in the period before the spending restrictions came in?

[killer-heels]

Is that where the Tory candidate spent £1m in the period before the spending restrictions came in?

Yep.

[Lush is the best medicine...]

Is that where the Tory candidate spent £1m in the period before the spending restrictions came in?

It was fine for him to do that, if labour were smart they'd have done the same what with all those membership subs, so can't moan about it

[killer-heels]

55k votes for Lib Dems and Greens voting for each other in 2nd choices. Fucking hell, if only a proportion of those voted for Labour, Labour would be in.

Another example of too many choices for centre through to the left. Desperately need a Labour party to appeal to these different parties. The votes are there and just any semblance of a strong party and Labour would be sweeping in all over the board.