Topic: Elections in Europe

[Giono]

The centre-left in the UK may well now have a more extreme EU policy than the French far right.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20170522/marine-le-pen-ditches-plans-for-frexit-in-shock-u-turn-far-right-leader-reportedly-now-backs-euro-single-currency

That is huge.

There are many skeptical people in France who had kept their Francs. I found this out a few years ago when I went to exchange a few Francs I had at home when I went back to Paris. It was a special bank branch and there was a huge line-up. I asked the clerk why it was so busy and she quoted me an astronomical figure of Francs outstanding after the implementation of the Euro. I asked why and she said that many people don't trust the EU/euro and are waiting for it to collapse.

The FN no longer being anti-euro is huge.

Looks like the Trump-Brexit cynicism has had an opposite effect than pundits had predicted.

[Linudden]

To be fair the only countries that are ever realistically going to leave the EU are those that:

1, have their own currency.
2, have strong relationships with countries outside of the EU.

Both of this applies to Denmark and Sweden, and for Sweden, where workers rights organically are much stronger than the UK and the EU has actually served to undermine those rights I'd be in full support for a Swexit. We have our own currency and our strongest European ally outside of the Nordics (the UK) is leaving so the EU is completely against the national interest right now save for the wining and dining elitist politicians who could care less about left-behind rural counties like mine. They only care about the large cities 

They'll never give us a vote though but our referendum on the Euro in 2003 serves as a guideline for what would happen. It ended 61-39 for the Swedish krona. Granted support for EU membership would be higher but I believe Swexit would win with a larger margin than in the UK to be honest, it wouldn't happen prior to Brexit, but now I'm sure it would.

Sometime around 2004 they stopped doing opinion polling on EU membership here, wonder why? Well they all know in the establishment that Sweden is the most eurosceptic nation on the continent, that's why  They quelled the debate and put a hush-hush on how the EU allowed for wage-dumping and the crushing of unions in Sweden.

In Sweden, the interesting thing is that it's largely equal between left and right-leaning voters regarding euroscepticism. There's not any particular right-wing bias towards it.

[Libertine]

@GuyVerhofstadt
Young, bold, gamechangers; our "Fantastic Four"

[GreatEx]

I'm ashamed to admit I don't know who the two in the middle are... living in Australia is my feeble excuse... :|

[Libertine]

I'm ashamed to admit I don't know who the two in the middle are... living in Australia is my feeble excuse... :|

PMs of Luxembourg and Belgium (had to check myself!).

Good liberals all though....

[GreatEx]

Ah okay... I think I can live with my ignorance on those two. Cheers!

[Libertine]

Macron attacks RT and Sputnik as propaganda while Putin stands next to him and squirms.

https://twitter.com/B3infos/status/869225360168067072

This is actual leadership and standing up for western values. Take note Trump/May/Corbyn.

[classycarra]

That's brilliant, thanks for sharing. Oh to have a decent leader acting in our interests

[Giono]

Macron attacks RT and Sputnik as propaganda while Putin stands next to him and squirms.

https://twitter.com/B3infos/status/869225360168067072

This is actual leadership and standing up for western values. Take note Trump/May/Corbyn.

How shocking it is to actually hear the truth. Macron goes beyond a firm handshake with Putin. I hope Erdogan visits him too!

[killer-heels]

@GuyVerhofstadt
Young, bold, gamechangers; our "Fantastic Four"

Puke.

[rafathegaffa83]

This is actual leadership and standing up for western values. Take note Trump/May/Corbyn.

Definitely.

[Libertine]

Now with English subtitles - Macron denouncing Russian propaganda outlets:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-40088898/macron-denounces-russian-media-on-putin-visit

[Libertine]

A populist political revolution - French style.




Seat projections from latest Kantar poll:

REM+-ALDE: 335 (liberals)
LR-EPP: 148 (republican centre-right)
PS+-S&D: 45 (socialists)
FI+-LEFT: 25 (far left)
FN-ENF: 12.5 (far right)

[Giono]

Thanks for that polling info.


I guess the projections take into account the run off elections for MPs. That explains how the FN is projected to win so few seats.

[Libertine]

Thanks for that polling info.


I guess the projections take into account the run off elections for MPs. That explains how the FN is projected to win so few seats.

Yeah, that poll (Kantar) had first preference percentages as:

REM: 31%
LR: 18%
FN: 17%
FI: 12%
PS: 8%

This is FPTP I can get on board with.....

[Giono]

Yeah, that poll (Kantar) had first preference percentages as:

REM: 31%
LR: 18%
FN: 17%
FI: 12%
PS: 8%

This is FPTP I can get on board with.....

I'm not a fan of FPTP. Much prefer Alternative Vote (instant runoff). But France's system of having a run off if nobody gets 50% and knocking out anyone with less than 15% in the first...is an interesting hybrid. But so unnecessary with today's available technology.

In so many ways our lives have been transformed by technology...but voting in many countries is still stuck in the 19th century...

[Libertine]

Yikes!

The lead of Macron/REM continues to grow.

Getting to the point where you'd worry about the state of the opposition.

[B0151?]

Certainly no joke is he. Don't think the past week could have gone better in terms of him trying to win this election.

[Giono]

600 members of parliament? I see why Macron wants to reduce those numbers.
If he gets 400+ he'll have a massive 'radical centrist' mandate from the people.

[Giono]

Certainly no joke is he. Don't think the past week could have gone better in terms of him trying to win this election.

Or attract tourists at America's expense.

[Libertine]

REM candidates come first in the first round of 10/11 overseas constituencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/french-parliamentary-election-emmanuel-macron-first-round-la-republique-en-marche

Together with recent polling, looking good for a president "who will struggle to achieve anything without a parliamentary base" (A. Neil and many other clueless UK commentators).

First round of the elections in mainland France this Sunday, June 11th (second round one week later).

Election fatigue? Never....

[Libertine]

Woah, huge win for Macron and REM in the French elections!

32.2% of the first round vote, estimated to get 390-430 seats (out of 577).

Fascists down to 14% (3-10 seats).

Socialists and far left at 10-11% each.

[Libertine]

[B0151?]

Some result that

Been a good few months in European politics

[Romeo Sensini]

Looks like M5S is getting wrecked in the Italian local elections held yesterday.

[GreatEx]

It's starting to look like Trump may have been a godsend - it's like the rest of the world had a big pus-filled zit that they just couldn't leave alone, and with Trump it exploded all over their face so they couldn't go out for days, and now they're thinking you know what, maybe I should just eat healthy and get some fresh fucking air next time.

[Giono]

It's starting to look like Trump may have been a godsend - it's like the rest of the world had a big pus-filled zit that they just couldn't leave alone, and with Trump it exploded all over their face so they couldn't go out for days, and now they're thinking you know what, maybe I should just eat healthy and get some fresh fucking air next time.

He is the head of a long-simmering infection that is finally coming to a head in the US and elsewhere. An infection that dates back 40 years. It could get messy before it heals.

[GreatEx]

He is the head of a long-simmering infection that is finally coming to a head in the US and elsewhere. An infection that dates back 40 years. It could get messy before it heals.

That was my fear too, but this year's elections (Austria, Netherlands, France, UK) suggest that maybe things have already hit rock bottom and now the world is bouncing back? Even Islamic terrorist attacks in the days and weeks before the elections failed to save the right wing parties. I'm becoming faintly optimistic.

[Libertine]

The right-wing populist surge saw the FN reduced to only 13.2% of the vote - Le Pen blamed low turnout (well, people can't be arsed to vote, what does that say about you?). Now projected to get a grand total of between 1 and 5 seats.

Meanwhile a brand new liberal, centrist, moderate and pro-EU party sweeps the board with a massive majority.

Pundits = gobshites.

[Giono]

That was my fear too, but this year's elections (Austria, Netherlands, France, UK) suggest that maybe things have already hit rock bottom and now the world is bouncing back? Even Islamic terrorist attacks in the days and weeks before the elections failed to save the right wing parties. I'm becoming faintly optimistic.

Good point. It was great seeing people not rewarding the terrorists with more extreme governments to fuel the fire.

[Giono]

The right-wing populist surge saw the FN reduced to only 13.2% of the vote - Le Pen blamed low turnout (well, people can't be arsed to vote, what does that say about you?). Now projected to get a grand total of between 1 and 5 seats.

Meanwhile a brand new liberal, centrist, moderate and pro-EU party sweeps the board with a massive majority.

Pundits = gobshites.

I wonder if the media will no longer be so titillated by far-right black/white windbags going forward? I have a feeling that the US media is not happy with what has happened after giving an entertaining windbag such a platform and easy ride to the Presidency...

[Libertine]

The French legislative elections are on today.

Projections give La REM (and allies) less than the polls indicated - 355 but still a comfortable majority.

The Socialists get much more than expected and stay ahead of Melenchon. Les Republicains are the opposition with 125 seats.

It seems the voters didn't want an overwhelming majority for REM - probably healthy for French democracy.

[Giono]

And the Communists got 30 seats while the Front National got only 8.


Are the pundits going to start talking about the Communists as a force?

[Libertine]

And the Communists got 30 seats while the Front National got only 8.


Are the pundits going to start talking about the Communists as a force?

As someone said on Twitter last night, the FN got 1 seat for every 100 panicky editorials in the English-speaking press.


The results in a nice map:



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_legislative_election%2C_2017

[B0151?]

And the Communists got 30 seats while the Front National got only 8.


Are the pundits going to start talking about the Communists as a force?

The Communists doing as well as they are is definitely a cause for concern. As is the fact Le Pen got to a run off and was in a position to become president. Not sure why people are so keen to downplay that. There's been a significant collapse of the established parties and there's absolutely no guarantee at all that Macron's tumble won't be as swift as his rise. He's filled the gap because most people really aren't extreme, but if he were to collapse then obviously there's a massive gap right there.

I'm an optimist about these things so I think that this year was Le Pen's best chance and a perfect storm in many ways and she still got crushed... but who knows how the next few years are going to play out. It certainly won't be plain sailing for Macron even with his majority. He's promising some significant reforms and the French are a feisty bunch.

[rafathegaffa83]

Czechs are already ramping up anti-disinformation protocols for their election

Czechs prepare to fight disinformation onslaught as elections loom

With the Czech elections slated for October, officials are worried that a growing disinformation campaign backed by the Kremlin could destabilize the country's democracy.

Philip Heijmans reports from Prague.


With the Czech general elections only a few months away, officials in Prague are bracing for a growing tide of disinformation from fake news outlets that they worry may have an irreparable impact on the country's democratic process.

Standing in front of hundreds of European diplomats and political experts during an annual summit in Prague last month, Prime Minister Bohuslav Sobotka warned that intensified attacks from dozens of fake news organizations, largely believed to be funded by the Russian government, could destabilize the country.

"They have a potential of not only threatening our security, but they may also have a fatal impact on democratic principles and institutions that are the basis of our political system and the guarantee of our personal freedom," he said.

Long seen as a front line in the political tug-of-war between Russia and the West over influence in Europe, the Czech Republic remains a stronghold for clandestine activities and a breeding ground for espionage.

Prague's apprehension concerning Russian interference harks back to the more than four decades under Soviet-led communism the Czechs endured until gaining independence in the Velvet Revolution of 1989.

But the Czechs are fighting back. In January, the government launched a specialized anti-fake news unit under the Interior Ministry called the Center against Terrorism and Hybrid Threats (CTHH). It is charged with publicly debunking fake news, improving the Czech security apparatus and building defenses against hacking ahead of October's elections.

Doubting democracy

Threats in those areas are on the rise, according to the head of the CTHH, Benedikt Vangeli.

"As disinformation outlets react to any kind of significant political event with an increased amount of disinformation and propaganda, it is only logical to expect the same behavior when the event will be as important as elections," he said, likening the situation to the 2016 presidential election in the United States, in which Russian-backed disinformation networks and hackers were believed to have disrupted the democratic process.

Czechs are concerned the Kremlin could influence the outcome of their elections

"The future of every state or a nation must be in the hands of its citizens, and therefore we want to be prepared to face any possible influence campaigns in order to protect these values," he said.

Since 2014, more than 40 Czech-language fake news websites have been launched, according to a report released last year by Kremlin Watch, a program of the locally based think tank European Values. They maintain that the content of such websites has stoked public resentment over issues that have recently dominated European politics, namely the refugee crisis and the Syrian War, blame for the Ukrainian conflict and the rise of nationalism.

"Some of the disinformation comes directly from Russia and some is created locally along the general lines defined by the Russian propaganda machine, so the message content is coordinated and the actual messages are developed both in Russia … and by local websites providing 'alternative news,'" said Tomas Prouza, the former Czech state secretary for European affairs and Czech digital coordinator, who helped establish CTHH.

"I expect more stories that put into doubt democracy and the election process with the goal of discouraging some of the voters to turn up. Also, I expect more nationalistic and xenophobic news to scare people and increase chances that impressionable voters will vote for nationalist and xenophobic political outfits," he said.

Beyond fake news

The scope of the disinformation campaign, however, is far larger than just fake news websites, which were launched in conjunction with attacks from various paid trolls, hackers and Twitterbots. Kremlin Watch and others speculate that Russian agitators have been propping up local far-right, anti-immigrant groups, which have been staging an increasing number of often theatrical, attention-grabbing public demonstrations. These have included fake beheadings and demonstrators dressed in bed sheets, meant to mock traditional Arab clothing, marching around with toy weapons.

According to Prouza, a successful disinformation campaign of this magnitude in the Czech Republic, a country of just 10.5 million, could lower voter turnout between 5-10 percent, which could bode well for far-right candidates.

"In a tight race, it might make post-election coalition building more complicated," he said.

With public debate acutely focused on issues surrounding refugees and an enduring political crisis that this week saw Prime Minister Sobotka step down as head of his party, in addition to the resignation of billionaire Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Andrej Babis last month, public trust in the government is faltering. According to a recent poll by the Public Opinion Research Center, dissatisfaction in the current political situation increased from 41 percent in April to 67 percent in May.

A pattern of political turmoil in the Czech Republic in recent years, along with general disdain for a news culture that is dominated by tabloid publications reaching 80 percent of the population, has helped pave the way for alternative news sources. Indeed, 25 percent of the population is thought to trust such outlets, said Veronika Vichova, a member of Kremlin Watch.

"In the Czech Republic, the general trust in public media and serious journalism is being continuously undermined, which helps to create the atmosphere of chaos and fear amongst the Czech public and clearly aims at silencing these channels," she said.

Protecting soft targets

Despite the risks, Prouza and Vangeli believe the country has taken some significant steps to combat the problem, including the implementation of a government-led national security review, a proposal to install hybrid threat units throughout each ministry, and the introduction of a new nationwide protocol for the prevention of hacking.

"The Czech Republic is the first country in the world with a systematic approach to soft targets protection," said Vangeli, referring to infrastructure that is easy to attack, like websites.

He also said that the country has been consulting like-minded EU member states on what can be done to combat the problem, though he admits it is still early days as he and his unit attempt to venture into uncharted waters.

"The center … has only existed for six months, so it is not easy to talk about accomplishments," he said.
http://www.dw.com/en/czechs-prepare-to-fight-disinformation-onslaught-as-elections-loom/a-39281431

[Giono]

Looks like Macron's big win in the legislative elections is allowing him to clean house in his cabinet by removing Francois Bayrou's MoDem party members that are involved in some kind of funding scandal.


When I first read about the first two departures I wondered if the shine was coming off Macron's government. Looks like the inverse is true in that he is cleaning house and taking control.



Does anyone have a different read of it?

[Giono]

Macron met with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Arnold made this vid with the French President:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAE-juh4Ji4

[rafathegaffa83]

 Wall Street Journal‏@WSJ
French authorities are probing Marine Le Pen over whether she misused European Union funds

[bigbonedrawky]

Macron met with Arnold Schwarzenegger and Arnold made this vid with the French President:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FAE-juh4Ji4

Did Arnie wear his SS belt buckle ?